As the Red Sox are set to meet the mid-mark of the season tonight against the Oakland A’s (Wakefield v. Zito), it’s time for that canned piece that people do everywhere that can be aptly summed up as “Review”. Without futher ado, here is the Review column for Fire Brand! The three hitting statistics that will be grouped together for everyone is Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage. They will read as such: AVG/OBP/SLG.
Instead of grading each player A, B, C, D, F, or INC, I will grade them as the following:
Exceeds (he exceeded expectations and is doing great!), On Target (no problem with this guy, he’s giving us what we expected), Missed Target (not giving us exactly what we had hoped for, but is decent enough), Slip-Sliding (not what we expected and expect at all), and Considering (this is basically an INCOMPLETE grade. They did okay enough, considering.)
CATCHER
Jason Varitek is the Red Sox’s starting catcher, and has performed very well defensively, logging a .998 fielding percentage with a catcher’s ERA (Earned-run average of club’s pitchers with a particular catcher behind the plate) of 4.15. His zone rating (percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone) is an expected 1.000. On the offensive side of the plate, he is hitting .272/.378/.431 , although that is misleading considering his offensive stats have been tailing off month by month (.292/.418/.508 to .287/.398/.494 to his June totals of .263/.352/.350 ). All in all, he has a high OBP and is the unquestioned leader of the clubhouse. If the Red Sox decided to anoint a captain, ‘Tek would be it. However, Jason prefers to lead by example. If you want the face of the Red Sox, you’d go to Pedro (or Nomar, but I’d strongly suggest against it), but if you want Mr. Red Sox, why, that’s Mr. Varitek here. On Target.
Doug Mirabelli is our backup, and is having a solid season. His fielding percentage is .992 with a CERA of 3.45. The fielding percentage slippage is explained by the fact he is Wakefield’s personal catcher. The CERA is a little surprise, considering that he catches Wakefield, who currently has a 4.27 ERA. Certainly is good on the defensive front. On the offensive front, he’s giving Barry Bonds a run for his money: .297/.366/.656 (Bonds has a .790 OPS). ‘Belli has 19 hits, 11 of which have gone for extra base hits. I am among the pantheon who support giving Mirabelli more starts against lefties and allowing Varitek to catch Wakefield. It’s not a good idea at all to have your primary catcher uncomfortable with catching someone. Mirabelli has a .364/.391/.864 line against lefties, and a .262/.354/.548 line against righties, mostly on career track. But a philosophy instilled by manager Grady Little has carried over, unfortunately. Exceeds. (Did you think his hitting would be this good?)
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz has most of the starts here. He has a .984 fielding percentage (as does Millar). For a first baseman, that is unacceptable. All starting first-basemans should have a fielding percentage comfortably above .990. That being said, Ortiz is a better defensive first baseman than Millar (more on that later). On the offensive side, Ortiz is one of the two bash brothers we have depended on. Hitting a scintillating .306/.359/.609 with an AL-leading 76 RBI and 22 HRs, Ortiz is one of Theo’s best, if not the best, pickups. He helps keep the clubhouse loose and is a great man to have in a Red Sox uniform. Exceeds. (The reason he is Exceeds and is not On Target is because no one thought he would have to play this much first base, and considering he hasn’t stunk up the team in the field, he exceeds expectations in everything.)
Kevin Millar has a .984 fielding percentage, a 9.20 Range Factor [ (PutOuts + Assists) / Innings Played ] and a .765 Zone Rating. Ortiz has a 9.40 RF and .811 ZR. So Millar has not been providing good D at first. Millar, however, has been very good in left field, but very bad in right field, with a .973 FP, 2.05 RF (Nixon is 2.23) and a .873 ZR (Nixon is .923). Defensively, Millar has been a bust. Offensively, these are his numbers: .268/.346/.387. Not a good enough batting average (career: .288), a decent enough OBP, and a horrendous SLG. 2002 SLG = .509. 2003 SLG = .472. The guy is done, he is not a starter anymore. He is now a bench player, which is very bad. A bench player making $3.5 million? Ouch. Slip Sliding.
SECOND BASE
Bellhorn has the great majority of playing time here (67 games, 65 starts out of 80 games played), and has a .981 FP, 4.72 RF, .832 ZR split. That’s not very good range at all, but perhaps we are spoiled by Pokey, as his second base defensive stats read 1.000/6.53/.917. For comparison, Todd Walker’s splits last year were .975/4.75/.788, so that is clearly an improvement. Offensively, Bellhorn stands in at .259/.382/.421. This guy would be a major player if not for his 91 K in 290 AB and his .421 SLG – unacceptable given his strikeout rate. We were expecting better offense (offense as in slugging percentage), and in the offseason, the consensus was that he would provide pretty good defense, something he could have better work on. However, we didn’t expect him to play as large a role or catalyst as he has had, so that negates the negatives and puts him solidly On Target.
SHORTSTOP
Pokey Reese leads off here, as he has 53 starts at this position. He has a lovely .976 FP, 4.80 RF, .910 ZR. We all know how good Pokey is defensively, so we don’t need to talk about that here. Offensively, he is hitting .245/.289/.338. While not his worst, not his best. As a number nine hitter though, providing the defense he has … he is Exceeds. We knew he had good leather, but did he have this much? We did not know that.
And then we come to Nomar, who apparently has demanded a trade according to ESPN’s Dan Patrick. Nomar has an abysmal fielding record this year, giving us splits of .935/3.90/.645. Let me assure you, that Zone Rating is not a misprint. Offensively, Nomar turned it up in the Atlanta series (one game too late, critics say), boosting his offensive totals to .284/.322/.444 (barely over Bellhorn’s). That OBP shouldn’t surprise anyone, as it has been dipping the past few years. The .284 batting average is good considering he has 81 at-bats under his belt, or in other words, hasn’t finished ‘April’. If this was April, we would be dissapointed in his defense, but optimistic about his offense. But it’s July, and we see that Nomar has no range, no power and more importantly, no more passion. He is a Missed Target, but is given a Slip Sliding because of his defensive woes, his only recent offensive upswing, and his character.
THIRD BASE
Bill Mueller has not been doing very good fielding. Kevin Youkilis has a Zone Rating a full .100 points over him. Mueller’s ZR is .663, Youkilis’ is .785. Guess Youkilis isn’t that bad defensively as he was said to be. Mueller has a fielding percentage of .916, and a Range Factor of 2.00. However, he just came back from injury, so perhaps those numbers will increase. We can’t really give Mueller a “Missed Target”, because last year was clearly an “Exceeds” season, offensively. However, Mueller gives us the line of .263/.329/.404 offensively, while his career sits at .291/.373/.421. While his career line is encouraging news for the second half as most people always regress to the mean, we have to give Mueller a Missed Target here.
Kevin Youkilis was a surprise call-up when Mueller went down, considering as he wasn’t ripping the ball off the cover in Pawtucket. However he has been a great surprise for the Red Sox major league team this year and his stock as risen considerably. We’ve already covered Youkilis’ defense, so let’s look at his offense. .297/.400/.449. Nice! Almost a .300 hitter, and a .400 OBP guy. It’s too bad his SLG isn’t over .500, but in a couple of years he very well could be. He’d be one of the best players at his position on both ends of the ball. Couple that with one of the Red Sox’s only feel-good stories of the season (so far), the air-fiving after his first hit which was an MLB homerun, and this guy gets a resounding Exceeds. (Let me interject here that not only was I wrong about that we should start Crespo over Bellhorn, I was wrong that we should have called up Snyder over Youkilis. I’m a man, I can admit when I’m wrong.)
OUTFIELD
Manny Ramirez’s offensive escapades are well known to everybody (.340/.436/.656), so most people would argue he gets an Exceeds grade so far, considering his interaction with the media and fans has skyrocketed, and he is now a go-to guy in the clubhouse. However, let me temper your happiness with two sets of numbers.
| Year | FP | RF | ZR |
| 2004 | .972 | 1.68 | .738 |
| 2003 | .982 | 1.83 | .789 |
His fielding has gone down, perhaps because he does not feel as pressured or mad to improve it. But either way you look at it, his attitude rates an Exceeds, his offense an On Target, and his fielding a Missed Target, which gives him an overall score of On Target.
Johnny Damon is second in the major leagues with a .918 Zone Rating, and is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game today. The man gets to the balls. Offensively, he is above his career averages and is having his best season offensively for the Red Sox, not counting the stolen bases. He has a .296 average, .388 OBP, and is slugging .450. He is clearly a worthy grade of Exceeds.
Gabe Kapler has the most starts in right field, so he deserves to be listed here with the starters. Kapler is the third best defensive outfielder behind Damon and Trot Nixon. Offensively, he is acceptable at all levels except his slugging : .259/.303/.356. We didn’t expect him to be starting this much, but he has. The split escapes me, but we have a very good record when Kapler starts. Factor in his defense which was not a big dropoff from Nixon’s, and his hitting which was better than Pokey’s … his all-out hustle, his “Dirt Dog” mentality, and I am going to give him an Exceeds.
Trot Nixon has been basically perfect in the field, so we know that his leg issues are not hampering him in the field. Offensively, though, he started strong but has dipped. .240/.316/.460 is his line so far. Career, he is .277/.365/.495, so the power is there. The only thing lacking is his stroke, but he’s had only 50 at-bats. While it’s a little late to be saying “only” 50 at-bats, we need to exercise some modicum of restraint with Nixon as we do with Nomar. I really want to give him a grade of On Target here, but I can’t because that wouldn’t be fair to Nomar’s grade. Nixon has been the same in the field as he always has been, and is a born leader. His (recent) offensive woes and being out as long as he has been unfortunately earns him a Missed Target.
BENCH
David McCarty has been a very good fielder for us, at first base, left field, and right field. (Also pitcher!) He is the 2004 version of Dave Stapleton. (Dave Stapleton was the good fielding first baseman that backed up Bil Buckner and is the subject of much second-guessing – why didn’t John McNamara put in Stapleton for Buckner in the last inning?) He is also our primary PH off the bench, and does it well. He is batting .227/.326/.413. He has definitely earned a grade of Exceeds. Where would we be without him?
There were also other assorted members on the bench earlier. There was Cesar Crespo, Brian Daubach, Andy Dominique. They all get a grade of Considering. It is fortunate for us (at least I think so) to have Kapler, Bellhorn/Reese, Youkilis/Mueller, and Mirabelli on the bench. The bench is finally settling down and becoming a strong point, which it was not before due to injuries. Now that a full lineup is being fielded for the first time this year, we should see better and better things off the bench. The overall grade for the bench the entire year was a Missed Target. The overall grade for the players currently on the bench is an Exceed.
TOTAL (POSITION PLAYERS)
Using all the information above, we come up with a Defensive Grade of Slip Sliding, and an Offensive Grade of Missed Target. Yikes.
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Ortiz deserves his Exceeds ranking. And I, for one, am exceptionally happy with McCarty, Reese, and Mirabelli. Especially Mirabelli. The Moneyball fixation on OBP occasionally bugs me: there are times when you want your ballplayers to swing the bat with some aggression. Pitchers sometimes try to get too fine, nibbling at the corners: hitters do the same, letting too many corner strikes pass. Not Belli. He’s a swinger, and he brings energy. I like to see him in the lineup, every few days.
I hafta quibble with Manny’s On Target, though. I don’t know how we can EXPECT anyone to hit like he has this year: the AVG is at a remarkable level, well above the career expectations; the OBP is good as always; and the power is there, which had worried me a bit in our last two seasons. His RBI totals would be a ton higher, too, except that Ortiz is mashing away like mad in front of him. Even so, he’s still a legit Triple Crown contender, and you can’t EXPECT that from anybody: there are just too many variables. And of course Manny’s D hasn’t been great, but when WAS it great? That’s not what we pay him for: meanwhile, his attitude in the dugout and with the fans has been so refreshing that I think it has to cancel his occasional defensive woes. Overall, that’s an Exceeds.
It’s too early for Trot and Nomar. Nomar may deserve the poor grade because of his attitude, but it’s just too early to grade his onfield play.
Honestly, I’m tempted to say the same for Mueller. He’s swung the bat very well in his first couple of games since coming off the DL: looks like a new man. And again, I think you need to factor in the attitude: never presuming, always humble, always sincere, never selfish. On the other hand, I’m not at all convinced about Youk’s defense: numbers do lie. I’d heard the rumors, and now, having seen him for myself, I have to say that the rumors are true. The kid just has WAY too much trouble with routine popups. Not a good sign. Also, you need to consider that Mueller’s fielding was probably hampered by the bad knee. But no one touts Billy as a first-rate fielder anyway, so that’s no big issue.
Poor Crespo. Poor Dauber. They tried. They really did. Wasn’t enough.
One thing you don’t account for: Damon’s arm. His arm is a limp noodle, and everyone in baseball knows it. They’re running all over him: keep an eye out for it, if you haven’t noticed already. And then there’s the stolen bases–or the lack thereof. Both of those are big negatives. But his coverage in the OF remains excellent, as does his team-first attitude, and his offense continues to impress me. What I’d like to see is Caveman’s pitches seen per AB: I haven’t looked, but it has to be great. His knack for working the pitchers, fouling pitches off, and slapping the ball to all fields is remarkable. Overall, I say he’s somewhere between a hit and a Miss. If he can swipe a few more bags in the second half, he’s a Hit.
Sam, take a gander at Manny’s career line and his line this year. The onlything out of whack is his SLG – and you’re right, his power had been worrisome. Looks like it’s back to 40-HR power, though. All in all though, it’s right in line with his career numbers. Remember, we’re not really basing it on last year, we’re factoring in his last year stats, his career line, and what we expected for him.
As for Damon, it’s increasingly become clear he is not going to be a speed demon, but he’s fast enough to cover more ground and beat out hits, so I’m not too worried there. As for his arm, I think it gets a little too much bad publicity. It’s not great, but I don’t think it’s that bad. That being said, I am a proponent of sending him to left field should we make a trade for a CFer (hopefully not, we have more pressing needs).
I’ve seen Manny’s career line. His current .337 BA is nice next to his .324 last year and .353 from two years ago, but all those numbers are significant improvements on his career .313 BA. After winning the batting title two years ago and then contending for it last year, Manny seemed like he was sacrificing a little power for AVG. Not this year. Manny’s back, and better than ever.
A .313 BA is pretty, but it won’t win you the AVG leg of the Triple Crown. Don’t undervalue that: it hasn’t been done in 40 years. Manny could do it. Vlad could. Sheffield could, if 1) he weren’t hurt and if 2) he weren’t playing in RHH Death Valley, um I mean Yankee Stadium. Giambi could’ve done it . . . two years ago, not anymore. So Manny and Vlad, and that’s it, in the whole American League.
And I forgot to mention this yesterday, but as far as I can tell CERA is a complete bust: it’s a useless statistic. Good for Tek, but better for our pitching staff.
Yeah Sam, I agree CERA is a bust. But I saw the stat when I was looking up Tek, so I decided to throw it in there. I’m not a believer in it, but I wanted to introduce the stat to any readers who may not have known about it.