Jason Varitek has to be one of the best catchers in the game. With apologies to Texas, Florida, and Detroit, it is no longer Ivan Rodriguez. With emphatic statements to New York, it is not, never will be, and never was Jorge Posada. Let’s compare.
Who does everyone say is the most prepared and most knowledgable and one of the best defensive and on and on and on catcher in the game? Your’ll get some deviations, rightful ones, that name Brad Ausmus (Houston), Dan Wilson (Seattle), Brian Schneider (Washington), Mike Matheny (San Francisco), but Jorge Posada doesn’t even amount to a whisper in this company.
Ivan Rodriguez could however be argued to be in here, but really, all he has to his defensive rep is his gun of an arm. Oh, and then there’s Jason Varitek where you lump into the above category. Forgetting for a moment that Varitek is probably better in the defensive facets of the game than Ausmus, Wilson, Schneider, and Matheny, you have to add in that Varitek is also a born leader and please also add in Varitek’s offense, which is next:
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2002 | BOS | 132 | 467 | 58 | 124 | 27 | 1 | 10 | 61 | 41 | 95 | 4 | 3 | .266 | .332 | .392 | .724 | |
| 2003 | BOS | 142 | 451 | 63 | 123 | 31 | 1 | 25 | 85 | 51 | 106 | 3 | 2 | .273 | .351 | .512 | .863 | |
| 2004 | BOS | 137 | 463 | 67 | 137 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 73 | 62 | 126 | 10 | 3 | .296 | .390 | .482 | .872 | |
| 2005 | BOS | 13 | 51 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .377 | .647 | 1.024 |
Jorge Posada:
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2002 | NYY | 143 | 511 | 79 | 137 | 40 | 1 | 20 | 99 | 81 | 143 | 1 | 0 | .268 | .370 | .468 | .837 | |
| 2003 | NYY | 142 | 481 | 83 | 135 | 24 | 0 | 30 | 101 | 93 | 110 | 2 | 4 | .281 | .405 | .518 | .922 | |
| 2004 | NYY | 137 | 449 | 72 | 122 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 81 | 88 | 92 | 1 | 3 | .272 | .400 | .481 | .881 | |
| 2005 | NYY | 15 | 55 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .355 | .364 | .718 |
Ivan Rodriguez:
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2002 | TEX | 108 | 408 | 67 | 128 | 32 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 25 | 71 | 5 | 4 | .314 | .353 | .542 | .895 | |
| 2003 | FLA | 144 | 511 | 90 | 152 | 36 | 3 | 16 | 85 | 55 | 92 | 10 | 6 | .297 | .369 | .474 | .843 | |
| 2004 | DET | 135 | 527 | 72 | 176 | 32 | 2 | 19 | 86 | 41 | 91 | 7 | 4 | .334 | .383 | .510 | .893 | |
| 2005 | DET | 14 | 60 | 9 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .350 | .355 | .500 | .855 |
In 2002-3, there was I-Rod, then everyone else. Posada had a leg up on Varitek offensively, but Tek was still better defensively, making the two average. In addition, 2003 had Varitek one and a half years removed from a broken elbow in 2001. All accounts I have heard, although I could have heard wrong, say it takes about two years for someone to come back full force from a broken elbow. 2004 changed all, as Varitek had the same offensive production as Posada, thereby vaulting ahead of him by defensive prowess. A slipping I-Rod meant that it was now Tek’s turn to claim the crown. So far in 2005, he has. While it’s a bit premature to say he’s a better offensive catcher than I-Rod, I have no problem anointing him the best catcher given his O is the same as I-Rod and his D is otherworldly. A great article by ESPN Magazine really put this in perspective for me. I want to bring you an excerpt:
Clement says Varitek was the biggest reason he chose the Sox this winter. “I got unsolicted calls from people in the game,” he says. “And they said, ‘This guy can make you better.’ I’m not going to act like an expert on Jason when all we’ve got under our belts is some spring training innings, but I see things already. Knowledge of pitching.
Knowledge of opposing batters and incredible recall of what’s worked in the past.”
When asked how Varitek can make Clement, a seven-year vet with a 69-75 career record better, Red Sox manager Terry Francona says, “Matt has the arm, the pitches. We just believe Tek’s the guy who can get him to throw with more conviction.”
How’s that possible? Ask Arroyo, a guy who was released by the lowly Pirates two seasons ago. “Jason has an idea of how we’re going to get guys out,” says Arroyo. “But as the game progresses, maybe he notices I don’t have such a good breaking ball, but I do have a good sinker that day. He’s perceptive because he’s focused on me. His mind never wanders from the job at hand, which is getting three outs. I threw to Jason Kendall in Pittsburgh, and honestly, he cared more about his offense than anything else. With Tek, he could’ve just grounded into a double play with the bases loaded, and I know when he’s back behind the plate, he’s pulling for me. I can see it in his face, through the mask, that he’s focused on me.”
PYTHAGOREAN STANDINGS
Fire Brand reader Chuck chimes in while on duty in Iraq:
Have always wanted to play with Sabremetrics more than I have, and it has been a while. I was trying to get my head around some of the info you wrote about Millar, but I guess I was too tired. Besides, I don’t have a whole lot of time to mess around with such things over here.
But I have done a couple of things, one being to look at the current standings, and then compare them with with where the numbers say they ’should’ be based on the Pythagorean Method (PM), based on RS and RA. Here is a look at the AL East:
EAST W L PCT GB RS RA RS/G RA/G PM-W PM-L PT-PCT Boston 10 6 0.625 - 87 62 5.44 3.88 11 5 0.663 Baltimore 9 7 0.563 1 82 85 5.13 5.31 8 8 0.482 Toronto 9 8 0.529 1.5 88 79 5.18 4.65 9 8 0.554 NY Yankees 7 9 0.438 3 89 96 5.56 6.00 7 9 0.462 Tampa Bay 6 10 0.375 4 77 99 4.81 6.19 6 10 0.377The Sox should have another win under their belt, according to the Gods of Runs, and the Orioles are doing better than they should based on their production/defense. Of course it is early in the season, but it should be fun to watch. Especially with the Yanks giving up 6 runs a game!
Other winners in MLB are Detroit, Florida, and Milwaukee, who records should be better based on PM. Biggest losers are ChiSox, Washington, Cinci, Arizona, and Pittsburgh (hard to imagine their record as being better than it should be!).
Great news from Chuck. Just take a look at the RS and RA (Runs Scored, Runs Against). Only two back of the Yankees, and yet we’ve only alowed 62 runs. Toronto is 2nd at 79. Wow. Thanks for the help, Chuck!
HIGH QUALITY PICTURES
An e-mailer who attended Opening Day just so happens to take really good pictures!
I was at opening day and took some really high quality shots with a digital rebel and a 300mm lens.
I posted them in a Flash slideshow at my site, http://www.gametripping.com
As a season ticket holder, I will be taking a lot of photos of this quality during the season. If you are interested, feel free to link to the site for your readers: http://www.gametripping.com/#GameTrippingPics
Check the pictures out, some really good ones! Tonight it’s Tim Wakefield (2-0, 1.37) vs. lefty phenom Scott Kazmir (0-1, 4.80) in Tampa. Considering Wakefield’s streak and he loves pitching in Tropicana, we should continue our streak of being the only MLB team not to allow a run in the first inning, and we could see some more eight inning shutout ball from our starting pitching!
In Theo we trust, indeed.
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You could at -least- throw Javy Lopez in this mix. Geez, Ev. ;)
In Theo We Trust. In Tek We Believe.
Hafta admit, I was surprised Arroyo made that comment about Kendall only caring about his offense. One of the reasons the A’s said (”said” being the operative word) they wanted Kendall was to tutor & guide their newly acquired young pitching staff. Guess that was a crock, something to give the media something to write about.
Anywway, I was surprised Arroyo said it. That can’t be the sort of thing that’ll go over well. And he might not be the best game-caller in the world, but Kendall can still always call for the fastball up-and-in against Manny or Ortiz next time we face Oakland …
Most Valuable Network – Off the Facade
Defending Jorge
At the risk of upsetting the big boss of the Most Valuable Network, I have to defend Jorge Posada from some attacks against his abilities as a catcher that aren’t based on what the numbers show.
Over at Fire Brand of the American League, the Bosto…
Two words- Park Factor. By no means were Posada and Varitek even close in 2002-03, as Varitek enjoys an enormous advantage playing in Fenway. Consider that Varitek’s OPS+ (which adjusts for park factors) were 94 and 120. Posada’s were 123 and 146. Defense simply cannot make up for that advantage.
As for last year, they were not even offensively. Again, adjusting for park, Posada was superior offensively, though not as much as previous years (133 to 121 in OPS+). So defense may have evened them out last year. But Varitek, while an excellent catcher, simply has not been better than Posada at any point these last 3 years.
Park Factors? Posada spends most of his time batting lefty in Yankee Stadium, obviously a good match. Varitek spends most of his time batting lefty in Fenway, where RF isn’t nearly the cupcake that Yankee Stadium’s is.
Besides, Posada is a manequin on defense, and I’ve never heard anybody say a single good thing about his gamecalling & preparation.
“A slipping I-Rod…” how on earth did I-Rod slip from 2003 to 2004. His OPS was 50 points higher. I sure hope that Varitek slips like that this year. Any argument that Varitek is the best catcher in the game has to rely on his leadership and his game calling. Those, which are two of the hardest things in the world to quantify, are what he really excels in. I-Rod was better in almost every offensive category in 2004, despite playing in a pitchers park.
Thaddeus- slipping via SLG and OPS.
But you’re right, what Tek excels at you just can’t quantify.
And yet, it’s Pudge who keeps winning the Gold Glove… ;)
I do agree that Pudge was slipping a bit last year– defensively. He himself admitted as much. With the lost weight, though, he should start to make up that ground this year. I know ‘Tek gets the press for being a positive influence on his pitchers, but for all that he’s got a much more veteran rotation to work with than Pudge does, and it’s pretty safe to say that the Tigs went out and got him in part because their young pitchers can and do trust him.
That said, of course I love ‘Tek to an absurd degree. But I love Pudge too. Nothing wrong with sharing the catcher love.
(And while we’re on catchers, Brad Ausmus does not get nearly enough love from Red Sox Nation. The guy grew up a huge Sox fan and, apparently, remains one to some degree even today)
I’m still now seeing how Pudge’s numbers slipped offensively. In Detroit ó a known hitter’s park ó Pudge’s SLG and OBP were both higher in 2004 than they were in 2003. Just because his numbers are down this year in 55 at-bats doesn’t mean anything.
My point over at Off The Fa
I’m still now seeing how Pudge’s numbers slipped offensively. In Detroit ó a known hitter’s park ó Pudge’s SLG and OBP were both higher in 2004 than they were in 2003. Just because his numbers are down this year in 55 at-bats doesn’t mean anything.
My point over at Off The Fa
Ausmus is a Red Sox fan? Maybe that explains why he’s always hit so poorly for the Astros …
Benjamin: Fair enough, small sample size, I’ll concede that.
Sam: Ditto.
Wait, how is Detroit a hitters park? Comerica’s huge in centerfield.
If you want to talk about experience, it would be tough to beat IRod, who could be a HOF catcher. Last time I checked, nobody looked at Varitek as a HOF candidate.
Also, I believe I read somewhere that Varitek isn’t great at controlling the running game. And by “isn’t great,” I mean last in the American league at throwing out potential basestealers, which is a tremendous knock on his defense.
No, Varitek is pretty good offensively, acceptable defensively. The argument between IRod and Tek isn’t so simple as to declare an easy winner–even right now, for example, a slimmed down Pudge has a decent set of wheels, and can actually steal a dozen bags a year. That’s just not part of Varitek’s game.
Well, Tek may be a better leader, and that’s an important aspect of a catcher, and one that’s unquantifiable.
On the numbers, though, I’d certainly stick him 4th or 5th in the American league behind Posada (Yes, better bat), Victor Martinez (Better Bat, potential), and Joe Mauer (Better bat, Glove, and potential). I’d probably put him on the same level with IRod, and stick the pair of them a notch above Kendall. Just for the sake of making a list, the last three worth mentioning would be Ramon Hernandez, A.J. Pierzynski, and Miguel Olivo. Bengie Molina’s probably as good as Olivo, too.
Are his intangibles enough to make him better than V-Mart, Mauer, or Posada? The real question is, who would you win more games with behind the plate? Would the BoSox be better with Mauer back there, or Martinez? They might be.
Also, I’m a bit skeptical of Pythagorean records, simply b/c they’ve let my team down the past few years. I don’t think they’re an accurate predictor of Wins and Losses since games are decided best on relative runs: You can score 2 and win, or 10 and lose. Plus, Pythags tend to devalue or ignore the presence of a good bullpen, which will help in tight games.
Varitek is still better than Mauer & Martinez right now. You don’t rank those two better based only on potential. Down the road? Sure.
Evan has already pointed out that Varitek’s CS numbers can’t be taken at face-value. Tek has Wakes on his pitching staff: you don’t think that’s going to skew Tek’s numbers? He had Lowe on his pitching staff, who was terrible at holding runners: you don’t think that’s going to skew Tek’s numbers? He had BY Kim on his pitching staff: you don’t think that’s going to skew Tek’s numbers? Etc. Plus there was Joe Kerrigan and his slidestep BS for several years. But sure, go ahead and condemn Tek’s value piecemeal because his CS% is low. That’s reasonable.
Haven’t you forgotten that Mirabelli catches Wakefield exclusively? Jason hasn’t caught the knuckleballer in years.
Jared – career CS% numbers are down because of Wakefield. Don’t forget Frank Castillo, too.
And as for the speed, Tek stole 10 bases last year, so that’s negated.
And no, Posada’s bat is not better. The statistics back me up there so far.
Evan–
“And no, Posada’s bat is not better. The statistics back me up there so far.”
The ones not park-adjusted at least. More complicated metrics value Posada’s bat above Varitek’s, and I do to. But the bat isn’t the entire package with a catcher.
Man. Veritek stole ten bases? I’d never have thought it. Well, that does negate that advantage between him and IRod.
By the way, I’m not saying that SB’s are going to outweigh the value of good defense or HRs–far from it. I’ve just seen too many station to station catchers on the basepaths, and a lack of speed or ability to take an extra base can harm a team. I was wrong on Veritek, in this regard.
Also, on Posada’s bat being better, there seems to be a bit of a firestorm about this point. I’m taking the statements of John Hill, et al, at face value. I’m not going to go crunching numbers to see which catcher has the best bat in the AL East.
The principle question here is this: would the Red Sox be better with another catcher behind the plate, say, Victor Martinez? Even on the numbers, it’s tough to call. Varitek is impressive on the power #’s. And, no, I don’t have a list of his stats in front of me. But he did bat fifth for y’all last year, so that’s impressive. Martinez has only done it for one year. IRod doesn’t have Varitek’s power, and apparently they have about equal speed. No, you might be right about him, if his defense is all you’re saying it is. Now, about Posada…
Re: Sam & Yankee Stadium vs. Fenway
Yankee Stadium is historically a good HR park for lefties, but not a good overall park for lefties (or any hitter). Besides, if you look historically at Posada’s Yankee Stadium home runs, he does not often take advantage of the short RF porch.
However, if you look at Varitek’s career at Fenway, he has a significant amount of hits off of or over the Green Monster.
Re: Posada & Varitek Even
On paper, some years look even. But when you consider that on-base percentage is a bit more important than slugging percentage, even without Park Factors Posada has the clear edge offensively.
How does one “look historically” at Posada’s use of the RF short porch? I assume it would be the same as looking at Varitek’s hits off or over the Green Monster, but again, how does one do that? Is there someplace online where I can see each players’ spray charts?
mike q – what kind of crack are you smoking to say that tek has better power than pudge? career numbers don’t stack up, and only in tek’s best years don’t compare to pudge’s lifetime averages. also why has nobody mentioned javy lopez who is probably also one of the best offensive AL catchers right now…mauer will soon claim that crown, but lopez is having a huge impact in baltimore.
plus, why does varitek necessarily get the edge in leadership? pudge took the marlins to the WS in 2003 and was a major factor in that team–he was described as “leader,” “motivator,” “spark,” and all that other stuff at the time. pudge’s numbers compare favorably to players at all positions, while tek is just decent for a catcher. pudge is a 5-tool weapon and a hall-of-famer.
tek stole 10 bags last year. so what? pudge stole 7, which is not a huge difference and has stolen 25 in a season once and 10 twice. pudge is a career 300 hitter who was 4th in AL batting last year. defensively, pudge has 11 gold gloves to tek’s 0. boston management doesn’t even trust tek to catch wakefield–look at what happened in the ALCS last year when he did: 3 passed balls in an inning that could have meant the game and the series for the sox. oh, not to mention that pudge is an 11-time all-star and an MVP.
in summary, from a career perspective, i’d pick pudge as the best (with honorable mention to lopez and posada–and mike piazza if you are counting NL). the catcher i’d want to build a team around is joe mauer (with honorable mention to victor martinez). tek may be valuable to boston for personality reasons, but he is just a slightly above-average catcher and a fairly nondescript offensive player who will never make contributions that compare to players of other positions like posada, pudge, lopez, and piazza have and like mauer has the potential to. tek is 32 and is about to entire his decline.
he is a great thing to have on the team, but it is delusional to say he is that much better than other catchers. he fits in boston but probably would not really help another team (although his production is totally sufficient for a catcher and he would not *hurt* any team).
No, what’s delusional is the idea that Tek “is just a slightly above-average catcher.” THAT’s delusional.
How many good catchers are there in MLB? Let’s count. IRod, Piazza, Lopez, Posada, Varitek, Kendall, Lo Duca (in the 1st half of a season), Mauer, and Vic Martinez.
And that’s it.
Nobody in that group is ANYWHERE NEAR average. Average is Michael Barret & Brian Schneider & A.J. Pierzynski. Actually, considering the likes of Mike Matheny & Brad Ausmus, even Barrett & Schneider & Pierzynski are all probably better than average too. But I’m trying to be generous here.
Any way I look at it, though, it’s still delusional to say that Varitek is anywhere near f’ing average. And that’s just raw numbers: that’s not saying a word about intangibles and/or leadership. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But as far as the numbers go, you’re just wrong.
Career perspective, nobody said Tek was better than Pudge, Piazza, or Lopez. Nobody said that Mauer & Martinez aren’t going to be better than Tek: they probably will. But RIGHT NOW, if I could have my pick of any catcher in the game, past & future aside, I would take Varitek. Hands down.
BTW, since when is Pudge a 5-tool player? I’ll give you 4 tools …
Ditto, Sam. Not about career here, it’s about the current season.
Another note:
“On paper, some years look even. But when you consider that on-base percentage is a bit more important than slugging percentage, even without Park Factors Posada has the clear edge offensively.”
I disagree with that. I think SLG is more important. Extra base hits, no?