It’s become a common refrain around here lately, but we need a starter. We have relied on stopgaps (Kason Gabbard, David Pauley, Kyle Snyder) and injured and/or ineffective starters (Matt Clement, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Jason Johnson).
David Wells is close to returning, but Tim Wakefield is out for about a month. Matt Clement continues to be a mystery, and Gabbard, Pauley, and Snyder all have one thing in common: they’re not very good. At least, not yet. They could become very solid major leaguers and craft nice careers, but it’s not going to happen in 2006.
What we need for 2006 (and preferably, in 2007 and beyond) is a solid #3 starter who can eat innings and get us into the playoffs.
We have plenty of trading chips, but I’m not wild on trading any of our big minor leaguers. We also have a glut of outfielders lately. Trot Nixon and Wily Mo Pena are in the majors now, with David Murphy and Jacoby Ellsbury making noise in the minor leagues. One of the outfielders has to go. Ellsbury and Pena could fetch the most in trades, but the reasoning behind how they’d fetch the most is the same reason why we want (and need) to keep them.
David Murphy at this point projects to be an above-average fourth outfielder, but his struggles prior to this year mean his trade value is quite low. That leaves us with longtime Red Sox, Trot Nixon.
I’m in favor of trading Trot Nixon. It hurts me a bit to be so crass about a longtime Red Sox player, just dismissing him and dangling him as trade bait, but it is what it is. Trot Nixon is in his mid-30s with declining power and a history of injury woes. He’s also a dirt dog, a grinder, and an impending free agent.
Trot Nixon is currently batting .304/.407/.438. Let’s take everything out of context for a moment and just focus on these exact numbers.
These numbers show someone who can take a walk with tremendous plate disclipline, and also has no trouble getting hits. His power is low, meaning his hits are mostly singles with doubles interspersed in there, with rare home runs. As a matter of fact, the average number of home runs for American League right fielders is seven. Trot Nixon has six. Let’s check out other peers with slugging percentages in the ballpark of .438, just to put this in context.
(Thursday’s games not included)
2B Robinson Cano, NYY – .439
SS Khalil Greene, SD – .439
1B Richie Sexson, SEA – .438
RF TROT NIXON, BOS – .438
3B Eric Chavez, OAK – .436
SS Orlando Cabrera, LAA – .435
Cano, Greene, and Cabrera are hailed as having good seasons. Sexson, Nixon, and Chavez are not. The reason why? Cano, Greene, and Cabrera are all middle infielders, where power is not expected and is considered a boon if you recieve it from said players. Sexson, Chavez, and Nixon all play power positions. First, third, right … you need to rake to stay at these positions, or to give something else quite valuable to stay there or be considered an asset.
Sexson has nothing, is slumping big-time, and is considered a bust. Chavez has Gold-Glove defense, but even that’s not holding up. With different circumstances, Nixon would be doing just fine.
A .304/.407/.438 hitter would be a boon if they had some speed to go along with their talents, in addition to not being injury prone. This is something Trot Nixon does not have. In addition, Kevin Youkilis has hit .286/.392/.445. He’s hitting with pretty reasonable pop, and has 10 HR. If he loses more power, his value (strictly as a third baseman) would be in question. As it is, his value is not in question.
If we had no other superior options, a line of .304/.407/.438 would be acceptable and gladly taken by anyone.
This is not the case with us. For us, a .304/.407/.438 represents a slide. It does not represent a peak, it represents a slide in ability by Trot Nixon. It represents that he’s losing power and is relying on getting more walks to offset that loss of power.
Compounding this is that there is a 40-HR power hitter stuck on the bench because of Nixon. Putting aside Wily Mo Pena’s defensive issues for a while (which, to me, were not that terrible to begin with) … putting Pena in for Nixon at right would provide a clear upgrade.
Trot Nixon is hitting .304/.407/.438.
Wily Mo Pena is hitting .321/.370/.482. (Not including yesterday’s game, when he had two hits and 2 RBI.) His career is at .257/.312/.478. As Pena is maturing, we can’t go by his career line, but I also hesitate to proclaim the .321/.370/.482 as his new self, so let’s go by a simple averaging. It’s dirty, and it’s probably not the best representation, but bear with me. Adding the two respective numbers and then dividing by two gives us a line of .289/.346/.477. Eyeballing these numbers, I’d say this is pretty good, except I’d probably adjust the OBP down, so let’s say Pena ends up with a .289/.336/.477 line.
Is a .289/.336/.477 line better than .304/.407/.438? I think it is. I also think it is based on the fact that no one has seen the best of Pena yet. His slugging percentage, if playing every day, would probably be around .500, not .477.
This is the reasoning I’m using to contend that we should trade Trot Nixon for a starter. We could then call up David Murphy to be our backup outfielder.
But now we have another conundrum. Who would take Trot Nixon? I’ve gone on record saying Jake Westbrook from the Cleveland Indians should find a home in Boston. With Westbrook under contract next year for a bit over $5 million and the Indians going young, is Nixon being the centerpiece of a Westbrook deal going to happen? No.
With the current NL to AL “success” ratio for pitchers being horribly low, we would much prefer acquiring a starter who has had success in the American League. First, we need to set some criteria. We do not want a fifth starter. We need a #3 starter who can eat innings. We need someone who doesn’t get rocked. Thus, anyone with an ERA over 4.50 is utterly disqualified, but anyone with an ERA under 3.50 is very unlikely to be traded, especially for a centerpiece of Trot Nixon. So here we have set our baseline: we are looking for a starter who has a current ERA (and reasonable expectation over his career) of 3.50 to 4.50.
We also want a good WHIP, because that says a lot more than an ERA. Here are the ERAs and WHIP of Red Sox starters:
- Josh Beckett 2006: 4.78, 1.24
- Jon Lester 2006: 2.38, 1.43
- Curt Schilling 2006: 3.42, 1.06
- Matt Clement 2006: 6.61, 1.76
- Matt Clement 2005: 4.57, 1.36
- David Wells 2005: 4.45, 1.31
- Tim Wakefield 2006: 4.15, 1.23
- Tim Wakefield 2005: 4.14, 1.25
A reasonable expectation for WHIP, then, I would submit is 1.40 and under. This seems like the highest you can go without getting an ERA north of 4.50 (which is why Jon Lester’s recent success is not expected to last, by the way).
We now have two guidelines. Who in the AL fills them? Let’s find out. The first number is their ERA – once we establish who we can chase, we will pare it down using WHIP. I will then include a note as to whether or not it’s likely we can acquire them. We either have a shot, or no shot. If it’s no shot, I will not include their ERA. If there’s a shot, their ERA will be listed.
- Jeremy Bonderman, DET: No shot
- CC Sabathia, CLE: No shot
- Nate Robertson, DET: 3.61
- Dan Haren, OAK: No shot
- Jamie Moyer, SEA: 3.75
- Gil Meche, SEA: 3.83
- Ted Lilly, TOR: No shot
- Ervin Santana, LAA: No shot
- Kelvim Escobar, LAA: No shot (Just signed extension)
- Chien-Ming Wang, NYY: No shot
- Kenny Rogers, DET: No shot
- Erik Bedard, BAL: No shot
- Vincente Padilla, TEX: 4.15
- Paul Byrd, CLE: 4.28
- Jarrod Washburn, SEA: 4.41
- Mark Buehrle, CWS: No shot
- Jake Westbrook, CLE: 4.44
Here’s the problem. Cleveland has no interest in Trot Nixon. Why would they? They’re retooling with young players, and these pitchers are much more valuable than Trot Nixon. To cull it down into a nice list plus their WHIP, we have:
- Nate Robertson, DET: 3.61, 1.32
- Jamie Moyer, SEA: 3.75, 1.30
- Gil Meche, SEA: 3.83, 1.30
- Vincente Padilla, TEX: 4.15, 1.32
- Jarrod Washburn, SEA: 4.41, 1.29
They all fit the critera. The other problem, however, is that Seattle and Texas are both eyeing a division crown, and their pitchers are important to them getting the prize. In addtion, neither of them really need Trot Nixon.
That leaves us with one alternative – lefty Nate Robertson of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are the best pitching team in the majors, and they need a lefty bat in the middle of their lineup (which is why they’re in the hunt for Bobby Abreu). They’re also looking at Alfonso Soriano, but that’s more to add offense than anything else, and they’d have to give up a prized pitching prospect, Humberto Sanchez, for that. For Nixon, they could reasonably give up Robertson if we chipped in additional things. However, we would be able to make Trot Nixon the centerpiece.
One option. That’s all we have. That’s not enough, we need to explore other options, so let’s turn to the NL. The NL to AL success ratio is not very good, so we need to change the caveat. The WHIP needs to be at 1.30 or lower. Curt Schilling made the transition to the AL, David Wells made the transition to both … Matt Clement did not, Randy Johnson cannot transition back … people say the key is stuff. Finesse plays in the NL, but not the AL. Really? Tim Wakefield and Jamie Moyer have something to say about that. It’s about control – putting the ball where you want it. So the WHIP now needs to be 1.30 or lower.
- Tom Glavine, NYM: No shot
- Aaron Cook, COL: 3.59
- Chris Young, SD: 3.59
- Aaron Harang, CIN: No shot (CIN wants pitching)
- Brett Myers, PHI: No shot (Not with his alleged wife beating)
- Mark Hendrickson, LAD: No shot (just acquired by LAD for a reason)
- Jason Jennings, COL: 3.88
- Dontrelle Willis, FLA: No shot
- Jeff Francis, COL: No shot
- Derek Lowe, LAD: No shot
- Josh Fogg, COL: 4.23
- Scott Olsen, FLA: No shot (They want young players)
- Matt Morris, SF: 4.42
- Dave Bush, MIL: 4.42
- Chan Ho Park, SD: No shot (from our end)
- A pared down list, plus WHIP:
- Aaron Cook, COL: 3.59, 1.35
- Chris Young, SD: 3.59, 1.14
- Jason Jennings, COL: 3.88, 1.37
- Josh Fogg, COL: 4.23, 1.38
- Matt Morris, SF: 4.42, 1.32
- Dave Bush, MIL: 4.42, 1.20
So we’re left with two choices. Dave Bush and Chris Young. The Brewers and the Padres. I could see the Brewers happening, shifting Geoff Jenkins to left field and putting Nixon in right, and trading Carlos Lee. However, Lee is younger and much more important to their playoff hopes. They would actually downgrade their playoff hopes by moving Bush and Lee for Nixon and other players. As for the Padres, they need agility in their outfield – not to mention that the Padres don’t have an opening in right field. Moving Nixon to left field and taking over for Dave Roberts is a possibility, so we’ll include that.
We’d have to give up a lot more than Nixon (and probably not the centerpiece) for a cost-controlled, young, and effective Chris Young. In addition, Petco Park is not a power park, why would Nixon help here? He’d actually slug less, so this is not an option.
We’re basically left with Nate Robertson. But then you think about it – the three Rockie pitchers listed here are at Coors Field.
What’s their WHIP on the road? Let’s take a look.
- Fogg’s WHIP away: 1.26.
- Cook’s WHIP away: 1.33.
- Jenning’s WHIP away: 1.36.
Looks like Josh Fogg could be an option. However, I’m not high on Fogg at all. He has a career W-L of 46-47, a 4.67 ERA, and 1.42 WHIP.
Basically, our only option, at least for me, is Nate Robertson. The two teams seem to fit together interestingly – the Tigers can afford to give up some pitching in exchange for a lefty hitter who can get on-base. We couldn’t do a straight up swap, but I’m thinking we could do something such as:
——————
ROBERTSON TO BEANTOWN, DETROIT GETS NIXON
by Evan Brunell
Boston, MA (AP) – The Detroit Tigers acquired right-fielder Trot Nixon today from the Boston Red Sox for starting pitcher Nate Robertson, general manager Dave Dombrowski announced. The four-player trade also included minor league outfielder David Murphy, right-hander Jermaine Van Buren, and cash considerations to Detroit.
Nixon, a full-time Red Sox since 1999, was batting .304 with a .407 on-base percentage on the season.
“We needed a left-handed hitter to break up the righties in our lineup,” Dombrowski said.
Nixon certainly fits the bill. A gritty player, he is in the final year of a three-year, $19 million contract. He is expected to be installed in right-field, with Magglio Ordonez shifting over to left-field. Marcus Thames and Chris Monroe will share backup and DH duties, Dombrowski said.
Robertson, a left-hander, heads to a Boston staff marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Lacking a fifth starter all year long and just losing knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the disabled list for a month, General Manager Theo Epstein knew a move had to happen.
“We couldn’t sit and wait around for [David] Wells to come back … for [Matt] Clement to turn it around,” he said in a conference call with writers. “Robertson fit the bill of what we needed.”
Robertson, 28, is currently 8-6 with a 3.61 ERA. In his career, he is 28-35 with a 4.62 ERA. Robertson is currently making the league minimum and will be eligible for arbitration following the season. To defray the cost of Nixon’s salary, the Red Sox have sent an undisclosed amount of money to Detroit.
Robertson is aboard a plane to Seattle, where the Red Sox are playing the Mariners. He last pitched July 18th against the White Sox, giving up six runs in 6.2 innings in a loss. He will start Saturday against Seattle phenom Felix Hernandez.
David Murphy, the Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2003 out of Baylor, was hitting .306 in Triple-A Pawtucket. Van Buren had been back-and-forth with the Red Sox and Pawtucket club, and will report to Triple-A Toledo.
To make room for Nixon, the Tigers have designated outfielder Alexis Gomez for assignment. Robertson will take Wakefield’s spot.
——————
Okay, I’m done pretending to be a sports reporter. The point is, this exercise pretty much showed all of us what’s out there for pitching that would work for us and them: not much. Only Nate Robertson, and that’s even if Detroit is willing to trade Robertson. It’s certainly a small market out there for us. Which means that if Theo can find a starter who can slot in a #3/#4 position, I’ll be very impressed, indeed.
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Well, except for Robertson, just about all of the other potential targets you list make me want to beat my head against a wall, so let’s hope there’s something there.
Rather than comparing Nixon to players who are performing comparably in terms of SLG%, you might have done better to compare him to players with similar IsoP’s. Because he’s hitting for relatively high average, of course, Nixon’s SLG% actually looks a little better than it should — not that it looks all that great anyway. That IsoP list would look like this:
Corey Patterson .137
Bernie Williams .137
TROT NIXON .134
Michael Young .132
Jason Michaels .130
And anybody interested in looking at the rest of that list can find it here.
Anyway, I suggested this very thing a few days ago, that we trade Nixon. Maybe it’s an ungrateful thing to do. Maybe it’s downright bastardly, after all the sweat & blood he’s given the Red Sox. Maybe he deserves better, after the hometown discount he took. But as coldly rational as it sounds to suggest that we trade the Original Dirt Dog, it’s what I would do if I were running our team as a keeper fantasy team, as would most of you guys. And not too many reasonable people would do differently.
All good things, etc., as the saying goes.
On the other hand, if Wells does manage to make one last successful comeback, we’re going to have an embarrassment of riches (in terms of starting pitching) as we head into the playoffs. We’re also going to be rather thin in the OF department if we trade Nixon — and god help us should anybody get injured. Pick your poison, I guess.
Sam, it’s definitely a bad list. And thanks for the IsoP list … it’s definitely better than my SLG list (wish I had thought of that) and really puts things in a LOT more context.
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Trot–I’ve personally found him a bit overrated, especially with his platoon issues, recurring brain cramps on the basepaths and injury history. Sentimentally, it would suck though. The “grinder” stuff gets played up a lot in the media, but Trot does play hard every day he’s in the lineup and has been here his entire career. That certainly deserves respect.
Robertson is an interesting option to consider, but I don’t see Detroit dealing any of their pitching, especially to a potential playoff rival. Rogers is usually bad in the second half and there are legitimate concerns about Verlander’s workload. The market out there is very thin this year and it may cost a king’s ransom to get anything even remotely decent. If Theo has learned from his mistakes in the past (Jeff Suppan anyone?), he won’t overpay for a marginal upgrade. I’m thinking it’s more likely we get someone along the lines of Mark Redman if we get anyone at all. Color me unimpressed.
Hopefully Wells won’t have any setbacks and can return within 10-12 days or so. Every mediot’s talked ad nauseum about the Yankees’ injuries, but none of them ever mentions that we’ve lost 3/5 of our rotation in the meantime. All I can say is thank goodness Schilling and Beckett have stayed healthy and that Lester has been so solid thus far. [Knocks on woods]
I don’t think the Tigers are willing to trade Nate Robertson. As mouse said, they have starting pitching concerns, and will be looking to skip Verlander a few times to keep his workload down, meaning their other starters will need to be people they can expect to be consistent, which they have gotten from Robertson so far.
In addition, there’s no guarantee as to what Mike Maroth they’ll be getting back (if/when, that is), the consistent 4.5 ERA Mike Maroth of the last several years or the emerging Cy Young candidate from this year. They could afford to give up Robertson, but I doubt they will do so.
just wondering – what is arroyo’s whip and era?
Interesting to note that your criteria would eliminate Josh Beckett from the list of potential trade options if he were playing for somebody else.
Also, trading Murphy seems to eliminate your suggested 4th outfield/Wily Mo platoon/Lefty off the bench (besides cora). I guess we could bring up Stern, but that still means we have nobody on the bench with any pop, righty or lefty. Our bench would be Belli, Kapler, Cora, Stern, 12th pitcher/???.
What do you guys think about this Lowell rumor? Olney reported it and BBTN was discussing- it said Lowell might be heading to the Padres for pitching. Jake Peavy will not be traded, and Chris Young seems hard to imagine unless we gave up maybe Hansen and they gave us Adrian Gonzalez. Lowell+Hansen for Young+Gonzalez?
Young has been their best starting pitcher (by a landslide) so far this year, why would they give him up? In fact, one might say that he’s been their only starting pitcher. And they’re certainly not, like the Indians, running up the white flag: the Indians are way out of contention, but the Daddies are leading their division. And it’s not as if they have such a comfortable lead that they can afford to sacrifice some pitching, seeing as how their lead is only a tenuous 2.5 games.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict that that deal ain’t happening.
I’d much rather have a starter than a weak bench.
Be sad to see Lowell go, but a good pitcher + Shealy = ohsooogoooood
I don’t feel losing Nixon would kill our offense. As stated, WMP is presently a superior offensive producer and I think the downgrade defensively would be offset.
An OF bench of Kapler and Stern (defensively he’s an upgrade over EVERYONE and would be useful to have on a playoff roster for the base stealing threat) is very solid.
But the trade for Robertson just feels unlikely in that the upgrade to our starting pitching would trump their upgrade in the offensive production. If we met in the playoffs (esp. in a 5 game series) the balance would be shifted to advantage Red Sox.
It’s a crazy season in that so many teams are still competing for the playoff spots. Teams that recently seemed like sellers have shifted to buyers (see the Braves)….
The only teams that are truly “out of it” don’t match up well with what we’re looking for in a trade.
I’m absolutely NOT against trading Nixon and was in favor of using him this past offseason in trades… it’s just that I don’t see anything happening. The balance in long/short term for serious upgrades at our weak spots doesn’t work out.
What we’ve got is what we’ve got. We can still easily win the division outright with where we are and I’m still happy with Snyder as a 5th starter. Stay tuned for tonight for potential shifts on my opinion there though. Great post though!!!!!
I also would prefer better pitching over a weak bench, but I would imagine that Theo would probably have to make a move to strengthen that up as well if he sent Trot and Murphy packing. Just an added wrinkle to your trade scenario. If that goes through, we need to find 2 people for the bench, and another for the playoffs (unless the Sox carry 11 pitchers on the playoff roster). That would also be a genuine concern, too.
Oh, but I guess I should say that if (contrary to my belief) we were offered a deal for Chris Young, we’d be nuts not to jump on it … and then lock him up for the next 3 or 4 years.
I completely agree with the sentiments to trade Trot Nixon. For more complete analysis see my blog at http://losduderinos.blogspot.com.
The one thing I disagree with is that the Sox should do everything in their power to trade him to the NL. Why not ask the Mets for Aaron Heilman?
I completely agree with the sentiments to trade Trot Nixon and anyone else who agrees should check out the analysis at http://losduderinos.blogspot.com.
The one thing I disagree with is that the Sox should do everything in their power to trade him to the NL. Why not ask the Mets for Aaron Heilman?