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| JULIO LUGO / ESPN.COM |
In one of the most unkept secrets of the offseason, the Red Sox are the favorites to land shortstop Julio Lugo. Lugo, a former Houston Astro, Tampa Bay Devil Ray, and Los Angeles Dodger, has been on the Red Sox’s wish list for quite some time now.
The Red Sox have attempted to trade for Lugo for a number of years now, but have never been able to make it work. Now that Lugo is a free agent and the Red Sox are the only team willing to invest heavily in a shortstop (although the Cubs have shown recent interest), it looks like he could be donning red and white for 2007. Especially now that the Toronto Blue Jays have just spent $20 million (or more) on Frank Thomas over the next two years.
Alex Gonzalez, the incumbent Red Sox shortstop, has reportedly received a 3-year contract offer from either the Chicago White Sox or Cincinnati Reds worth $15 million. The Red Sox would undoubtedly pass on that offer, as Lugo (widely thought to eventually recieve a 4-year, $36 million contract) would be more palatable with the dollars being thrown around.
Lugo is the source of much consternation for Red Sox fans. There have been comments and articles from many people either wanting or not wanting Julio Lugo. It ranges from doubts of offensive potential to concerns over defense. I was in the “No Julio Lugo” camp until this past July, when I tried to figure out why the Red Sox were so enamored by him. I now am in the Julio Lugo camp.
First, the defense. People say that Lugo is not a good fielder. In 2006, he played a total of 81 games at shortstop, committing 16 errors for a .953 Fielding Percentage, 4.56 Range Factor, and .827 Zone Rating. His career is a .965 FPCT/4.69 RF/.848 ZR. In 2005, his numbers were .968/4.94/.841. These 2005 numbers ranked him 21st, 4th and 13th (Renteria 23rd, 16th, 21st) respectively. Again, according to fans all around, Lugo is not a good fielder.
The problem is this. Omar Minaya states that:
“Julio Lugo is one of the best shortstops in the game,” said Mets GM Omar Minaya. “I really believe Julio is an excellent defensive shortstop, let alone the fact that he can really hit. Don’t sell him short defensively. I know teams are looking at him as a second baseman or whatever, but he’s a major league shortstop.”
If the Red Sox are so enamored of Lugo, having been able to figure out just what defense is, then maybe he really is a good defender. It’s very hard to quantify defense, but Theo did a pretty good job quantifying it last year. In addition, that glowing review means a lot. In that same article, it is said that Julio Lugo has the range of Alex Gonzalez, but his hands just simply aren’t as good as A-Gon, which is why he has more errors.
Another bone to pick with defense. Sam handed out his defensive awards earlier this month. In it, he awarded Jhonny Peralta the Sam Killay Gold Glove:
Winner: Derek Jeter (39 FRAR, 9 FRAA)
My pick: Jhonny Peralta (58 FRAR, 27 FRAA)
Red Sock: Alex Gonzalez (18 FRAR, -5 FRAA)
Let’s look at the numbers. Peralta’s FRAR blows away Jeter and Gonzalez. And FRAA? Let’s not go there. So why is it that Mark Shapiro is unhappy with Peralta’s defense?
“It would be an extreme challenge for us to be a championship-caliber team with Jhonny playing, offensively and defensively, the way he did last year,” Shapiro said. “Shortstop is just too pivotal a position to have that kind of performance.”
Peralta hit .257 (146-for-569) with 13 homers and 68 RBI. He committed 16 errors and his lack of range, especially to his left, was a season-long problem.
The Indians made a video study of Peralta’s season. It did not make for good viewing.
“I know he didn’t make many errors,” Shapiro said, “but we went back and watched on video every single ball hit to him all year – and his range was among the worst of any major-league shortstop. There were more balls that an average major-league shortstop needs to get to.”
–Omar Minaya
Ah, defensive statistics.
There are two points I would like to make here. First, simpler is better. I see no reason why a combination of Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Zone Rating can’t do the job. Hitting, pitching, and fielding can always be mostly (but not completely) defined by three statistics. Hitting has average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Pitching has innings, ERA, and WHIP (although innings is really used to quantify the former two). Fielding? In my opinion, is Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Zone Rating.
Let’s go back to some earlier numbers.
In 2005, Julio Lugo ranked 21st in FPCT, 4th in RF and 13th in ZR.
In 2005, Edgar Renteria ranked 23rd in FPCT, 16th in RF and 21st in ZR.
In 2005, Jhonny Peralta ranked 19th in FPCT, 12th in RF and 7th in ZR.
Sam says Peralta is a Gold Glover. Shapiro says his range is horrible and he needs to improve his defense. The comparisons don’t lie. They are all similar in fielding percentage, Julio Lugo blows away Peralta and Renteria in Range Factor, and both Peralta and Lugo are laughably far ahead of Renteria in Zone Rating.
In 2005, Alex Gonzalez ranked 15th in FPCT, 5th in RF, and 11th in ZR. So the scouting report I read earlier was accurate: Lugo has similar range, but worse hands.
Is Julio Lugo a defensive whiz? Probably not. Are Boston fans giving him the short stick on defense? I say yes. I say Julio Lugo is a major league shortstop, and I say I’m happy to see him man the field in between second and third next year at Fenway.
Enough about fielding. Let’s move to hitting.
Lugo hits for a career .277/.340/.402. Last year, he hit .303/.373/.498 before being asked to man the entire diamond for the Dodgers in limited time, where he hit .219/.278/.267. In 2005, he hit .295/.362/.403. Before Tampa Bay in 2006, he hadn’t shown flat out power, which he only started doing because he started bopping more home runs. In the last three years, he has shown a propensity for doubles – 41 in 2004, 36 in 2005, and had 17 in 73 games for the Devil Rays in 2006. The number is low because in 73 games, he hammered 12 home-runs as opposed to six in 158 games in 2005.
A career .277/.340/.403 with burgeoning doubles power? Turned 31 yesterday (happy birthday!)? I would definitely be okay with a four-year contract worth $32 million for Julio Lugo, considering the marketplace. Remember when everyone scoffed at the money the Blue Jays handed to A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan a year ago? Who’s scoffing now? Lugo is coming at a rather affordable price despite an explosion of dollars because there is really only one team chasing an impact shortstop, and that is our Boston Red Sox, largely considered to be the frontrunners for Lugo.
Julio Lugo at shortstop for the Red Sox in 2007? Totally okay.
[UPDATE] And it seems like J.D. Drew is set to become a Red Sox. “Multiple sources say they are set to sign free-agent outfielder J.D. Drew, the Phillies’ old amigo, for a 4-year, $48 million deal.”
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We can’t afford another year like ‘06 at shortstop.
I loved A-Gon’s glove and attitude, but he was a complete no-show at the plate.
Lugo’s a solid citizen, fields his position exceptionally well, puts up solid numbers from the plate and can be counted on in the clutch.
If he doesn’t knows how to sing “Sweet Caroline” yet, he will soon. I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
I wish the Sox would have signed Gonzo — 30 years old, 3 years — not all that bad. Theo already had one bad experience by replacing a great SS with one that wasn’t so good in the American League — but Gonzo was solid. And a fan favorite. A shame to break up that steel curtain of an infield.
I wouldn’t have minded watching Gonzalez for another year in the field. And I could’ve lived with him at the plate provided we found a capable #5 hitter. But not for $5 million a year. As good as he is with the glove, he isn’t worth that kind of pay day. If the rumors are true, Lugo could be had for about $8 million a year.
I’m not a big Lugo fan by any means, but if I had the choice of paying Gonzo $5 million and Lugo $8 million, I’d go with Lugo.
I know it’s a bit of a risk, but what about playing Pedroia at short and making a run at Ray Durham to play 2B. He had a career year in 2005 and slugged .538! He also hit a whopping .341 agaist lefties!!!
I agree he could be more expensive, but if Durham can continue this (and he might do even better at Fenway considering that the Giants park favors pitchers), he’d be the best option on the market.
The trouble with Lugo is that his game is predicated on speed. His defense derives its value from his speed. His offensive numbers are OK for a SS, but he supplements his offensive value with speed on the basepaths.
We saw what happened when Renteria lost a step.
And Lugo just turned 31. Are we going to be happy with him when he’s locked into the last year of his deal and going on 34 years old? That’s my question.
We’ll be just fine with Mr. Lugo. And JD Drew in right makes WMP enticing to other teams that we will, and I mean WILL, be dealing with. Can you say c l o s e r? So far so good in this busy month of the warmth that is November. At least for now.
Wow, 4 year deal for Drew. Risky, but could turn out great.
This morning has Drew signing 2/30 with the Red Sox because we won’t give out a no trade. Love it.
Crazy idea:
Manny Ramirez to Houston Astros (who lose out on Lee and Soriano) for Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge.
Mike Lowell to San Francisco Giants for either a top reliever, prospect, or two backups.
I have to agree with the sentiment above regarding Lugo’s range. His defensive ability is tied up in his range and ability to get to balls in the infield. He has terrible hands and throws lots of balls into the stands, which is why he racks up so many errors. When he starts to age (right about…now), his range will decline and his poor hands and throws will likely remain. This signing is a mistake waiting to happen. Theo should save everyone the trouble and start paying some of his salary to play somewhere else right now. Just say “no” to Lugi.
I’d be willing to live with the defensive downgrade for a hitter like Carlos Guillen, but Lugo is no Guillen, and he’s not the young guy he sox were coveting three years ago. We’re giving him the deal at 31 that would have made sense at 28.
I hope it works out, but I’m skeptical.
Mr. Furious just hit the nail on the head.
This was the deal we should have done when Lugo was 28, not an aging 31 year old. I’d rather see them sign AGon for another year or two.
Ummm, and no trading WMP for a reliever, even a closer. Sorry. There’s way too much power there to give up for a fungible commodity like a reliever. Alright, maybe closers are somewhat less fungible, but I still don’t like the idea.
“Manny Ramirez to Houston Astros (who lose out on Lee and Soriano) for Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge.”
So you’re suggesting Boston trade Manny Ramirez for 2 players whose value has never been lower? And that’s saying a lot, since Ensberg’s first full and healthy season came in 2005, followed by a 2006 where he hit so poorly he was a platoon player by the end of the year. Yes, that is a crazy proposition.
Here’s a crazier one, which also ignores reports that say the Dodgers are close to resigning him: Bring Nomar back to play 1st, trade Lowell, and move Youk to third. Now that’s crazy…
Anyway, Craig I think you’re right about not trading WMP for a closer. Relievers are, compared to other players, pretty unpredictable as to when they’ll hit the proverbial wall and lose effectiveness. I’d rather trade Crisp, a cheap CF with decent offensive upside, for a closer and move Drew to CF, giving WMP the start in right. And I don’t even want to trade Crisp; I just think it’s a slightly less bad idea then dealing Pena.
If we sign Drew to the 2/$30MM version, I’m OK with giving Lugo 4. If we give Drew 4 years, I’m not as thrilled with Lugo…don’t like the idea of overpaying 2 players in the future. And we do still need bullpen help…anyone hear anything on Speier?
I’m interested in Maicer Izturis. Someone who last season posted similar numbers to Lugo and his defense is about as good. He also makes a penny compared to what Lugo could land, which looks closer to a 10 year per type of contract.
Izturis became the IF utility guy but I see no reason why they wouldn’t promote Erick Aybar to be that guy and try and pick up a nice piece for Izturis. I don’t know what we’d have to offer in exchange… but players like Izturis could be those low risk/high upside types of players that we need to fill out the roster around the star players.
So, we give 8m a year for 4 years to a player with a .740 OPS? Am I missing something? In 2005, his .765 OPS made him the 9th best SS in the majors, behind supertar Bill Hall.
While it’s not 8m to Cabrera’s .674 for 8m, why would we do this again? If we’re dead-set on trading Manny, couldn’t the Angels or someone give up one of their 3rd-rated SS to play?
I am so not on the Lugo bus. And signing Drew to trade Pena? Only Theo would make that move. Let’s hope he doesn’t.
I’ve been lurking here for a while, so forgive me for the newbie response.
Why the fascination with Drew and Lugo? The money that will be thrown at them is ridiculous and they have never performed at a level that even begins to justify that price. I would rather have Gonzo as an automatic out as 1/9 of the batting order (”Red Sox flirt with National League lineup” in tomorrow’s Herald”)for his defense and WMP losing one flyball off his glove for a home run for every twenty he hits out.
Every report I have read about Pena is that he has the raw skills and just needs to develop them. Out of options, he has to play and play regularly. Get him in the line-up, beat the bejesus out of him with opportunity and hope he turns into the slugging monster everyone says he is capable of. If not, we lost out on some pitching arms that are nowhere near as sure a thing. If he develops, Arroyo can go all Wang on us and we’d forgive the front office.
Lugo. 8 million? That feels like cutting my shins open with Hanley’s fingernails and pouring a god-shot of lemon juice in just to make it stop hurting so much. I live out of market and one of the few things that made me keep going to sports bars after the massacre was knowing that a ball hit deep in the hole would be played, and played well. Perhaps highlight reel well. A-Gone made me like the infield again. I would rather trade one of the BS for a package of two or three AAA kids, including a SS who shouldn’t be up yet but has to play.
Hope that makes sense.
WMP CANNOT be counted on to catch the ball. That’s all I have to say, and I’ve been convinced, and have written about it, for so long. May the chips fall where they may. But number one concern? SIGN DMat!!!!! Lidge will follow, maybe in the same time frame. Boras and Boras.
Peter,
That’s funny because when WMP was getting consistent starts in RF his ZR was much higher than Nixons. He perhaps lost a few balls… but the ones that he’ll knock over the fence are probably 1/1000 chances.
Overall, figuring in that he’ll make some plays that Nixon would never have made, and then taking away some boneheaded glove work that Nixon would make… they’d break about even. He’s a much better fielder than Manny and seems every bit as good as Crisp in CF.
I like Drew in RF, WMP in CF and Manny in LF
or… Drew in RF, WMP in CF and Crisp in LF if Manny is dealt and we get an equal trade value somehow.
“The other Josh” – Lidge and Ensberg’s values are never lower because Lidge had an off year (by no means is he terrible for the rest of his career now) and Ensberg was hurt for a majority of the season, bringing his numbers down.
Ensberg is a fantastic cheap third baseman with tremendous plate disclipine but seems to be getting forced out of Houston. Dealing Manny for Lidge and Ensberg (as the centerpiece, with a couple other smaller pieces involved) would really help. Wed gain a closer, someone who can hit (but obviously not at the clip Manny can) and save money. And may I add, allowing WMP to play left?
Evan- I didn’t mean that they were bad players. I just meant that I didn’t think it’d take Manny to get at least one of them. Like I’ve read elsewhere that Houston might be offering Lidge for ‘cheap’ as he stands to make a lot of money with arbitration. Like maybe a prospect or two and Boston takes his full salary. I’d like Lidge, although his psyche and ability to handle closing in Boston scare the sh*t out of me. All I remember hearing all season was that his problems were “mental” and if he gets stressed out closing in Houston…Boston may not be a good fit.
So maybe Ensberg was hurt. But apparently that’s a recurring theme with him, as he’s only played 130 games twice in 5 years. There is something to be said for durability…I will say that I didn’t realize how high his career OPS is, and that even though he struck out 96 times in 387 ab’s last year, he also walked 101. That is pretty damn good.
I wouldn’t mind seeing WMP play left, but I also wouldn’t mind him being a 4th OF who gets a start or 2 per week to keep Manny and Drew fresh. If Boston can get Houston to pick up close to Manny’s entire contract, I guess that wouldn’t be a bad move. But it’s got as much potential to completely destroy 07 as it does to succeed; I have this mental image of Ensberg getting hurt and only playing 100 games, while Lidge blows three of his first five opportunities, flipping off the jeering Fenway crowd as he walks off the field.
Josh-
if we keep using WMP as a 4th outfielder we are going to completely kill the man. He’s been jerked around for 4 solid years now without a set starting job, and that’s why he makes mental mistakes. We can’t keep him as a 4th outfielder while complaining that he’s a liability in right. Look what happened when we trusted Youkilis to do his job, right?
WMP will have more power and less OBP than Drew, for about 8-9m less a season. Why on earth, when we’re trying to save up money after spending 51.1 on Matsuzaka, would we waste that much for minimal gain? Give WMP a shot, do not get rid of him for anyone but Peavy.
…so are you saying we should trade Manny or not sign Drew? Because it’s one of the two. If we don’t trade Manny and WMP plays right, fine; I have no real problem with that. It’ll be painful to watch for a while and our lineup will be very right-handed, and I really don’t like Pena as a 5-hitter because he strikes out so much…but fine, it is worth a try.
If we do trade Manny, Pena plays in left, which is probably where he belongs. What I was saying was that I wouldn’t be too thrilled to see Ramirez traded for Lidge and Ensberg; I’d rather play another year with WMP as a 4th OF then make that deal, unless Houston picked up most, if not all, of the contract. I’d be fine with Pena getting a starting gig, either in right without Drew or left without Manny…I would just like a good return on any Ramirez trade.