Don’t mean to bump Ian’s article, but…
Michael Silverman gives Red Sox fans a reason to jump off the nearest bridge.
Negotiations between the Red Sox and Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka have essentially broken down, a source familiar with the talks said late last night, adding that unless there is an abrupt change of course, Matsuzaka will not be signing with the Red Sox before Thursday
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I refuse to get suckered into this. We’ll see if he’s a Red Sox after Thursday or not.
Nothing like a late-night kick to the nuts…fantastic…
I would offer 3-years $45Million and if Boras declines it, sayonara Dice-K.
Look at it this way: the Sox will need two starting pitchers after the 2007 season if they don’t sign Matsuzaka now. With Schilling retiring and Wake potentially following him, the Sox will have to scramble to get two starters on a market that won’t be particularly rich in SP’s, or at least it doesn’t look like it will be.
Now, Matsuzaka is not guaranteed to be great by any means, but a top-flight starter after the 2007 season will almost certainly cost the Sox more than Matsuzaka would right now.
Heck, if the Royals just signed Gil Meche for 5-years $55M and the Dodgers signed Schmidt for 3-years $47M, there’s no way Matsuzaka is worth less than $12M — and $15M isn’t as unreasonable, at least in my view, as it seemed to be about a week ago.
I’m almost positive that this is Boras trying to use Matsuzaka as an example of why the posting system is a disaster, and why he’s pissed-off about only being able to negotiate with the Sox. I’m certain the same thing would’ve happened had the Mets, or even the Yankees won the bidding.
But part of me is wondering why Dice-K doesn’t see through Boras. He wants to come to America, and NOBODY in Japan wants to see him come back — including Seibu, which is having what one expert described as “catastrophic financial difficulties”. They need the $51.1M badly, and Matsuzaka wants to come to America. So why does Scott Boar-a$$ have to stand in their way?
A friend of mine who lives in Japan said that if Matsuzaka returns because of the money, many people won’t accept him as a good person anymore. He’s a national treasure, and that’s about to change unless the Sox sign him, and for that to happen, something’s got to give.
My advice to Matsuzaka if he wants to keep everyone (including himself)happy: fire Scott Boras, hire Arn Tellem (or another decent agent), and sign a 4-year deal worth $48M. Chances of that happening…negative-100 percent.
But a more realistic solution would be for Theo to just succumb to Boras’ ridiculous demands of $15M/year for 3 years. It’s not a huge price to pay considering what the market might be like for starting pitchers next season.
Oh, and Theo, you better do it soon (as in by Tuesday), because flying Matsuzaka in for an 11th hour physical to squeeze the deal in just before the deadline is not the greatest idea, especially knowing that Boras could flip the switch and say, “no Dice”.
If the Sox don’t sign Matsuzaka, even if the cost is $15M a season, I would consider it a bigger mistake that signing Lugo, a bigger mistake than trading Cla Meredith and Josh Bard for Mirabelli, and the worst move of Theo’s reign over the front office.
GET BACK ON THE PHONE THEO!
Notable FA SPs after 2007: Mark Buerhle, Carlos Zambrano…umm…Jake Westbrook?, Jason Jennings?
And to try to create a frame of reference for THAT offseason…after Zambrano nets near $20M per/yr. (whether that happens as a contract extension this season or as a FA), what exactly will those other three “notable” names fetch? Any doubt that Matsuzaka will *at least* peform on par with those dominant individuals?
Only thing that would keep him from doing so is an injury…that’s why I think the Sox should offer him what Boras wants — $15M per year — and if he still declines, well, there’s not much they can do about it.
One other interesting rumor is that Theo is extremely frustrated with Boras for not picking up his phone and not returning calls. No one can really force Boras to talk, but all signs point to Matsuzaka wanting to sign and Boar-a$$ wanting to make a point.
If he doesn’t sign, I think the Sox should make Clemens an offer he can’t refuse — 1yr, $20-25M — what have we got to lose?
Schilling-Clemens-Beckett-Papelbon-Wakefield doesn’t sound half-bad to me.
Which is why I still think this’ll get done. Unless Boras has had it in his head from the start to make Matsuzaka his sacrificial lamb so he can challenge the posting system. Which, I suppose, is possible.
Ahh, my comment was supposed to be after Quo’s.
Sorry for getting in between you two, Josh.
Part of me believes it’ll get done too, but that may just be the Red Sox fan in denial coming out.
My friend who works in the Giants scouting department says it’s a “10 percent chance, at best”.
See comment #32 in this thread…
http://prospectinsider.wordpress.com/2006/12/08/bas-top-10-mariners-prospects/#comments
OK that’s all well and good…except Matsuzaka already can’t be a FA a year from now. He can’t be a FA for two years, per Peter Gammons, unless something strange happens with Boras and the posting process. And the Lions are supposed to be in truly god-awful financial shape…so I just don’t know how thrilled they’d be about taking him back.
If we don’t sign him, we do something else, like throw a ton of money into a trade for a young gun. The Padres might not want a prospect trade for Peavy, but would they take Buchholz and $20m? That starts to sound a little more appetizing.
Worry not, especially with Lester on his way back. We may finally have options ready for the upcoming season.
Sean, any cash considerations in excess of $1m need to be approved by the commissioner’s office. Since that deal would amount to us buying Peavy away from the Padres, it would NEVER be approved.
I don’t know what Scott Boras is trying to prove, except that he’s a bigger jackass than anybody gave him credit for.
I get the feeling this might re-open the Manny trade talks. If the Sox are going to still need a starting pitcher and a closer, Manny might be the only one who could net both of those in a single trade.
Or maybe Theo will realize that Gagne is worth the risk, sign him, and then try to trade for s starter…which is much easier than trying to trade for a starter and a closer.
Unless of course, the “abrupt change” that the Herald mentioned happens within about 24hrs. Realistically, if the Sox don’t reach an agreement with Boras by Tuesday, they won’t have time to officialize by the deadline — or Matsuzaka could skip the physical…are we willing to take Seibu’s word that he’s healthy?
Quo- didn’t recieve it. Can you send to evanDOTbrunellATgmailDOTcom? Replace DOT and AT with … well, you know. Thanks.
Don’t beleive this report; they will get this thing done.
BLUFF, verb: to frighten or deceive by pretense or a mere show of strength.
(From Webster’s)
Unless Thursday rolls around and there’s still no deal done, that’s all I see these reports as. There’s no point in getting worked up over the Matsuzaka negotiations until we know one way or the other for sure.
The deal will get done. It’s Boras’ way of squeezing out every last penny. He’ waiting, letting the Sox sweat it out. He’s going to make sure Daisuke is paid more than he’s worth. That’s his job as an agent.
Zactly.
Pardon my paranoia.
So who’s to say that the Yankees (with RJ, Pavano and Pettite all coming off the books after ‘07) haven’t been able to have an agent tell the Seibu Front Office that they’ll post 60 million next offseason during a posting process?!?!? Or 70 million even?
By all accounts, DM has wanted to play for the Yankees more than anyone else. It’s a freaking year and we also know that the Yankees will offer him a contract that’s more than market value. All this “market value” is bullcrap thinking at this point. We know that when you want a specific player, that thinking is tossed out the window- not just by other teams, but by Theo too. He sure as hell didn’t “market value” Matt Clement or Edgar Renteria. You “market value” complimentary pieces to the team (as in players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre) but you break the bank for guys like Matsuzaka. The Sox are being cheap SoB’s here and because they were unable to unload Unstable Manny (thanks a lot you selfish prick) their financial flexibility is taken away.
Right now I just don’t see this getting done. I’m seeing this kid in pinstripes already, having egg on our faces two offseason straight because of this FO’s crap about “market value”. If they don’t overpay, it’s simply because they always wanted to block him for one season and that was it. Really dumb move.
As I wrote in my blog earlier today, this would be a major embarrassment to the Red Sox — and to Scott Boras. I can’t imagine they won’t find a way to make this happen.
How would it be an embarassment for Boras if he was able to turn around Matsuzaka and have him sign a 3 year deal at 16 million per season in ‘07?!!?! Especially given that he’ll still make another 3 million if it doesn’t get done for the ‘07 NPB season…
I would imagine he could easily say, “lookie here Japanese players…. one of your superstars was getting low-balled and I stood up for him and got him what he deserved… 6 million more per season!!!”
The only team that would be embarrased would be the Red Sox, and why the hell would Borat give a crap about their feelings?!?!
Did you refer to Mr. Boras as “Borat” on purpose? Cause if you did, that was pretty funny.
Anyway… take a look at this here bit of somewhat jaundiced looking journalism…
(from the Silverman Article)
“The well-placed source blamed Boras for stubbornly being unable to get over the flaws in the Japanese posting system, saying that he has been unwilling to negotiate and that he has acted disinterested in even making a deal.”
And tell me that that ain’t just SLIGHTLY suspect. I mean, he falls just short of referring to Boras as a “poopy pants”, but…
Remember:
A) Getting Red Sox fans to wring our hand in despair is a lot like shooting fish in a barrell.
B) NEVER NEVER NEVER (never!) trust the Boston Media. Never. Silverman is writing this either as a reactionary fan, or as a pawn of the Sox brass.
Yes I’ve taken to calling Mr. Boras…”Borat”… as in, “To Make Glorious Contract for Client of Baseball Player”.
I take everything coming from the Boston Media with a grain of salt the size of Kazahstan.. BUT.. what really is the purpose of a smear article on Borat then? If anything all it would do is to piss him off… but really, why should he even care? he’s already the devil to most fans and front offices… so what if he’s called the devil yet again??!?!
I’m glad there’s still a lot of optimism out there… but the deadline is informally a little more than 48 hours away (considering the physical and evaluation period) and financially I don’t see where DM is going to be taking a hit.. or Seibu for that matter.
Okay, there’s some chance he could blow his shoulder out in ‘07, or suddenly radically underperform, but given the fact that he is still on the right side of 30, the chances have to be pretty small….
Nate Silver in BP thinks we lost interest when 51.1 really WAS 51.1… if he’s correct then my feelings are that this whole “market value” crap is nothing but a way for the FO to try and keep the fans from demanding their heads.
Link (copy and paste it!)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=78
It’s tough to swallow but it’s almost worth seeing Scott Boras eat this mistake he’s about to make. Unless he wins a challenge to the posting system he’s in trouble, because he’s now established a fail-safe point for the Red Sox, who can safely come back next year, bid 80 million for the post, and make the same 8 million/per year offer knowing it will be refused, forcing Matsuzaka to lose two prime earning years. That kind of fiasco would effectively end Boras as a draw for Japanese players.
This is all Boras, not the Red Sox. Even Johan Santana is only making ten million a year. If Boras wants to change the rules, that’s fine, but the fact is that pre-arbitration players don’t make 15 mil a year for a good reason. Obvious Boras disagrees with that, but that’s his problem. It’ll be a shame to lose Dice-K, but there is nothing the Sox can do here.
The first thing I thought when I heard about this was that it’s the Herald we’re talking about, and I’d take this more seriously if Edes or Cafardo were reporting it. That said, though, I really really really really hope it’s not getting this bad and a deal will get done.
Good point, Smog. Trotsky, what say you to that?
“Good point, Smog. Trotsky, what say you to that?”
Not allowed. Not negotiating in good faith. Heck, the Mets may get Matsuzaka this year.
If you were Boras, would you WANT everyone to think you were not going to let Matty sign? Of course. You would take it down to the last possible hour. It’s a negotiation ploy. It is absolutely NOT in Matty’s interest to go back to the Land of the Rising Sun. Fitting in with expectations is far more important there than here. He would be viewed as a money-grubbing-san. Or whatever they call them over there.
This deal needs to happen–it’s the best for all concerned.
Smog (are you Bill Callahan by any chance?)
He’d only be forfeiting ONE season of prime earnings, not two. He can be reposted again after ‘07. AND he’d still make 3 million for the ‘07 season in the NPB (which might only be 7 million less than what I’m seeing the Sox offering him as “fair market value crap”) which he could easily make up if the Yankees sign him.
If the Red Sox come back and bid 80 million next season, wouldn’t the same scenario be expected to play out again? I’d imagine that fair or not, Selig would forbid the Sox from winning the posting fee since, according to Borat and Matsuzaka, they believed they were not negotiated with fairly.
You can argue that last point, but if they turn down a 10 million per year, that’s IS the leverage.. the WHY that Borat refused… and by default, Matsuzaka also… they would use.
Another Borat client, Kevin Millwood took a one year deal with the Cleveland Indians in ‘05 not because he wasn’t offered anything higher, but because he wasn’t offered a good contract BY A TEAM THAT HE WANTED TO PLAY FOR.
I’m a Sox fan.. I’d run out and play for the stinkin’ Red Sox for nothin! hell, I’d pay them to let me out there for a game… but we gotta realize that this kid has said in the past that he wants to play for THE NEW YORK F’IN YANKEES, and by all accounts the Yankees were going to make sure he was in pinstripes. They screwed up, but who the hell is to say that they don’t have agents promising more money to Seibu in a future posting and that they already have somehow made it known to DM that they also would offer him a heftier contract than any offered by the Red Sox?!?!!
How insulting is it that this supposed Ace from Japan might be getting less money than Matt Freakin’ Clement?!??!?!
Hmmm…okay, my thinking is suddenly much different.
There is quite a lot of debate if a team is able to post a player two years in a row, they might only be able to every OTHER season, which in that case would mean they wouldn’t be able to post him at all since he’d be a FA.
Now… if this is the case then I’d be much more optimistic, if not then I’m just as pessimistic as I was after Game 3 ALCS ‘04.
I believe that there are rules preventing a player from being posted after consecutive seasons, if he will be a free agent the following year, but I’m not sure if it has exceptions or not, nor do I understand the rules very well.
The problem with the thinking that Boras is simply taking this to the final hours is that Matsuzaka won’t have time to take a physical if the Sox get the deal done at 11:59PM that night. Of course, we could waive the physical and go by Seibu’s claim that he’s in good health, but that would be taking an even bigger risk.
If this is Boras trying to make the Sox pay more, he’s doing a terrific job of it. One rumor says that Boras actually kept his cell phone off for 6 hours intentionally, just to keep Theo waiting. Another says that Boras was frustrated with Theo, rather than the other way around, for continuously offering the same contract with only few changes.
I’m not sure if the Sox are standing firm at $8M per year for 4yrs, but if they are, I don’t think they have a chance — even I agree that’s not completely reasonable. If Gil Meche just got $11M/year from the Royals, the Sox should at least offer that for Matsuzaka, especially knowing that the free agent market for SP’s will be razor-thin next year.
I have a feeling that Matsuzaka wants to come to the US this year, not in 2007-8, and that the Sox are going to sign him at midnight on Wednesday because he won’t let Boras stall the talks and keep him in Japan. Dice-K will pass his physical at around 11:55 so that Theo can come out smiling at midnight and announce the deal, while Boras sits in a chair wondering “why the heck did he want to sign?”
A friend of a friend of mine lives in Japan and is a huge fan of Japanese baseball. He says that if Dice-K comes back because of the money, people won’t respect him anymore. And Seibu REALLY wants him to sign as well, because $51.1M couldn’t be more useful given the financial issues they’re having.
Prediction on a Michael Silverman headline at midnight on Thursday: “I Was Wrong”.
–oh wait, I don’t want to jinx it…
Evan, e-mail sent. Been AFK most of the day today.
Then again, maybe there’s something physically wrong with Matsuzaka and this is Boras’ way of masking it, by trying to eliminate or rush the physical exam.
Hopfully the sox will just put down their best offer at this point. I do not worry about the “good faith” issue, if Matsui only got 3yrs/21 mil I think once the Sox best offer is thrown down, there is no way anyone could justafiably say it is in bad faith, especially since you know the Sox wil likely go atleast as high as 10mil/yr. Hopefully a 5/55 mil or 6/72 mil will get it done by tomorrow.
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