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| THEO EPSTEIN / SPORTING NEWS |
Since Keith Foulke tossed the final out of the 2004 World Series to Doug Mientkiewicz, Theo Epstein’s pattern of development as general manager of the Red Sox has been as alarming as a botched John Kerry joke. The boy wonder, the second JFK, the composer of the first champion in 86 years was seemingly invincible and pulling all the right moves.
Then something happened. We donÌt know if it was an ego that doubled in size, flawed scouting or simply bad luck, but the off seasons of 2004 and up till 2006 have been regrettable for Epstein. HeÌs surely endured his fair share of criticism after questionable moves like the signing Edgar Renteria and Matt Clement for 80 million plus combined, breaking up the nucleus of the 2004 squad, letting Pedro walk, trading our best prospect for Coco Crisp and the Bard-Meredith debacle. Some decisions, to be fair, are yet to be determined. WeÌre only one year into the Beckett era and even that is not off to a dashing start.
Still, enough worked out in 2005 for the Red Sox to nearly take the division backed by a ferocious offensive attack and receive a playoff birth. Fans were somewhat forgiving, but still wondered whether certain moves ultimately led to their demise, like a lack of starting pitching and strong bullpen. The Sox marched into 2006 until they hit a skid right around the All-Star break after an injury monsoon and rabid inconsistency that hit its climax during a five-game sweep at the hands of New York in August. Now TheoÌs free pass in Boston had expired. He was left with a team with gaping holes to plug and a fan base that wouldnÌt stand for two straight years of third place baseball.
So far this winter, Theo has snagged J.D. Drew, who should prove a dynamic #5 hitter in Fenway hitting after Ortiz and Ramirez (although I LOVE the idea of Drew hitting 2nd, although that will never happen). Drew is a player who undoubtedly is one of the top 30 players in baseball when heÌs healthy, reaching the 100 RBI plateau last season and getting on base at an impressive .393 clip. His OPS the last 3 years is higher than Alex Rodriguez. Fenway could jolt his numbers even higher. I could go on and on about the great things Drew brings to the table, as we did for Renteria, Clement, Crisp and others, but the performance will judge the effectiveness of the signing. And itÌs all a reflection on Theo Epstein.
Theo also signed one Julio Lugo, whom I always remember beating us up at Fenway as a member of the Devil Rays, to fill the hole Alex Gonzalez left. HeÌs our sixth shortstop since the beginning of 2004 (if you count Pokey due to NomarÌs injury), a number Epstein is surely embarrassed about. While LugoÌs free-spirited, crazy attitude will likely equal a much more successful campaign in Boston than Renteria experienced, the similarities and comparisons are still there for discussion. Being a GM in Boston and trying to create the right group of players not only to perform on the baseball field but also react to the pressure and expectations of the fans is an extremely difficult task. Theo mastered that art in 2004, and now heÌs attempting to re-create the right combination again. Just without the Jack Daniels.
Let us not forget, and itÌs difficult in this time of anxiety, Daisuke Matsuzaka, the greatest pitcher to ever come out of the new baseball factory known as Japan. HeÌs been projected to succeed greatly in the big leagues and maintain the frontline of a starting rotation for years and years at his ripe age of 26. Thankfully Epstein heard the fans calling for a winner and spent 51.1 million for the bidding rights to Matsuzaka, spurning the Mets and Yankees. Joy in Boston. Thank you, Theo. And now when it starts to feel like thereÌs slivers of possibility a deal is not struck, Matsuzaka goes back to Japan for two years, and the Red Sox are left with no improvements to a glaring weakness, the heater has just been jacked up in EpsteinÌs office. To avoid utter disaster around Red Sox Nation, Matsuzaka needs to be signed.
“But, if Matsuzaka cannot be signed, if the bullpen is not shored up, if Drew and Lugo fall on their ass all year, Red Sox fans across the globe will start calling for Theo’s head…”
The bullpen right now stands as Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez, Hideki Okajima, Bryan Corey and Kyle Snyder. I’m not saying this will happen, but if the Red Sox enter April 3 with this as their bullpen makeup, you can eliminate them from playoff contention. Conversation over. Theo is truly trying to make a valiant effort and sign a setup man and closer, but he seems to be running out of options and time. The Orioles gobbled up three relievers we showed interest in. We werenÌt willing to guarantee Gagne enough cash for a contract. The plan for the pen is up in the air, floating somewhere around Fenway Park, but nobody can locate it. Maybe Theo knows. Right now I’m not so sure we didn’t change the dial on Papelbon one year early.
And thus we reach the deciding campaign for Epstein and his cohorts. I’m not at all suggesting Theo is on the hot seat yet. HeÌs done many remarkable things to embolden the structure of our organization that Duquette left in shambles, such as an above-average farm system, strong drafts, genius moves like Ortiz, Schilling and the Nomar trade and most recently extending our arms into Japan. But, if Matsuzaka cannot be signed, if the bullpen is not shored up, if Drew and Lugo fall on their ass all year, Red Sox fans across the globe will start calling for his head and some of those memories from years past will begin to move slowly out of their minds. The off-season where Epstein seemingly collected players with the biggest risk, some wrong turns will create much controversy.
2007: A year where the Red Sox look to gain their credibility back after a third place finish, and a year where Theo Epstein’s decisions need to prove serviceable and beneficent. If these moves bomb, the Boy Wonder of 2004 will be feeling some sweltering heat.
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That Duquette left in shambles? Was that a typo!?
Come on.
I guess Duquette gets no credit for Hanley Ramirez who was the rookie of the year or Anibal Sanchez who pitchd a no hitter. Both traded by the Red Sox.
Is that the “shambles” you’re talking about?
Please bring back the shambles. We might have won another championship!!!
I think the Matsuzaka situation will determine a lot about how Sox fans view Theo. If he’s able to sort this out, I think he should be praised for the effort, because Boras is one tough nut to deal with.
On that note…
The Sox are hoping to hold a 3-way call with Matsuzaka and Boras at some point over the next 24 hours. This might be a last-ditch effort to sign him and it’s rumored that if the Sox aren’t able to reach any sort of agreement with Dice-K and Boras by Tuesday afternoon, they’ll just let the deadline run out. No word yet on whether it will actually happen, though Dice-K did promise to talk directly with the Sox at some point after their meeting in LA, and that has yet to happen.
Realistically, the Sox need to reach at least a preliminary agreement by Tuesday, for Matsuzaka to have enough time to take (and presumably pass) his physical and for them to iron out the details.
The question is, what exactly is Boras trying to prove? He knows that Matsuzaka will have to return to Japan until 2008 if the Sox aren’t able to reach an agreement with him. And it really doesn’t seem like Dice-K wants that to happen. If the answer to the question is that Boras is using Matsuzaka to make a point, I find it hard to believe that Dice-K is happy about it. If, on the other hand, Boras is just stalling to see if he can get the Sox to up their offer, the Sox might as well not do anything and hope Matsuzaka signs by Tuesday (I’m sure Boras is well-aware of the time needed for the physical, etc…).
Would you risk it, if you were the Sox, and leave the ball completely in Boras and Matsuzaka’s court? Or would you sweeten the offer hoping to lure Dice-K, and gamble that you may wind up paying more for him?
I’d take the latter option, but that doesn’t sound like Theo to me. Theo knows Boras — he just worked out a deal for Drew with him — and if anyone knows how to negotiate with a boar-ass, it’s Theo. But one question we’ve yet to examine is, what if the Sox did in fact just bid to keep Dice-K away from the Yanks? As much as I’d love to believe that’s not true, there’s about 0.511111111 percent of me that thinks the Sox didn’t bid in good faith.
Here’s an idea if the talks really break down completely — offer a 1 year deal worth $8M. Is there any way a contract could be worked out which would allow the Sox to sign Matsuzaka and allow him to be arbitration eligible after 1 season? I know it’s a huge risk because Dice-K could then be valued at over the $15M/season Boras wants, but if that’s the case, the Sox know they’ve got a winner on their hands, and he could then be worth his arbitration rate. And if Boras wants $15M/year, that’s $60M over 4 years — even if his arbitration rate is $18M, Dice-K would cost the Sox $62M over 4 years, which is far from a big difference.
If, on the other hand, Dice-K struggles, he won’t be worth much in terms of arbitration, and the Sox could then keep him for less, or let another team have him if he’s not MLB-caliber, as expected.
A 1-year deal could be a win-win for both sides. It eliminates most of the risk for the Sox while guaranteeing that Dice-K will get his true market value after a year. What do you think?
Please Theo, turn down the heat in your office by making Dice-K the starter for your home opener on April 10 (does everyone realize that if Dice-K starts the second game of the year, he’d then start the home opener against Seattle and Ichiro would be the first hitter he faces at Fenway?).
“The Sox are hoping to hold a 3-way call with Matsuzaka and Boras at some point over the next 24 hours.”
Where did you hear that, out of curiosity?
On the radio. I live in San Francisco and they were just discussing it on KNBR (the local sports station) during a talk show where the host mentioned the Matsuzaka talks and a listener called in and mentioned the 3-way call. The host then replied “I heard that as well, but I think that might change depending on how Boras feels about the negotiations right now”.
Granted, it’s probably not the most reliable source, but I found it interesting enough to mention, and since the guy agreed, perhaps it is going to happen.
What do you think of the 1-year deal, then arbitration, idea if all else fails?
I think it might work, but only if Boston agreed to cut him loose after 3 years, maybe 4. I’m not sure Boras really wants his client to have to, ahh, earn his pay; I think he just wants the biggest check he can get. Maybe a 2-year, $30MM deal with 1-2 years of arbitration would do the trick; combination of a high yearly salary and the possibility to earn more, and he’d potentially be a FA at age 30.
I know the Sox are already taking more risks than a team this fresh out of a curse should, but…
Why not just give Matsuzaka what Boras wants the Sox to give him, knowing that the luxury tax is increasing a ton next season and that the free agent market for starting pitching is going to be awful next year?
I know that basically takes away our right to refer to the yankees as the “Evil Empire”, but in my opinion, it’s worth it if the Sox can whack the *bleep* out of the Pinstripes in 2007 and beyond because of Dice-K.
Yeah, at this point I don’t really care that much about price…sure, it’ll be irritating for a while, but the whole having-an-ace (possibly) thing would be real nice.
I think Boras realizes Matsuzaka might not be the end all of pitchers over here and will want more money. The arbitration idea is nice, and possibly even fair, but that’s not the way baseball salaries work. Boras will try and get as much as he can for his client. I would think that Matsuzaka would be more interested in his future and already talked to Theo and co., but maybe you’re only supposed to let your agent do the talking.
Now I’ve never had the option of making either 8 mil or 15 mil a year, but if my goal was to play in the major leagues and I had to pick, I’m not sure that I’d really know the difference. I’m about Matsuzaka’s age and I don’t know what I’d spend 8 million dollars on, let alone 15. Of course I am a little biased; I would play for the Sox just for the uniform and a bear hug from Ortiz.
Your words…..
“To avoid utter disaster around Red Sox Nation, Matsuzaka needs to be signed.”
Peter here, and those words are too true. What kind of game is Boras(s) playing? It ain’t baseball! And the bullpen situation, though less time-oriented, will HAVE to be resolved. Great stuff.
Oh, I just read the comments, which I did not do before writing my comment. And RH, great job with your words. These next three days will be remembered by ALL of us, for obvious reasons. We need DMat right on Schill’s “on the mound” heels. This is no time to penny-pinch, especially if we’re counting pennies spent so far. GO FOR IT!!
Scott Borass is the MLB equivalent of the NFL’s Drew Rosenhaus. He only wants what’s best for himself in both the near and long terms.
Ok, here’s my question. There’s been talk of Selig becoming involved in this matter, and I haven’t heard anything of in what capacity. What happens if it is decided that the Red Sox did not negotiate in good faith? I’ve heard a ton of speculation (mostly from the jokers over at Mlbtraderumors) about whether or not Borat can buy out Matsuzaka’s contract, or if the Mets could be given a chance at negotiating a deal…it all seems highly suspect. But I would like a definitive answer as to what happens if things do fall through.
The definitive answer if a contract is not signed by Thursday at midnight is that Matsuzaka gets spanked and sent back home to Seibu to pitch TWO MORE YEARS for them.
He cannot be reposted after next offseason.
He will become a Free Agent after the ‘08 NPB leagues.
The Seibu Lions will be unquestionably OUT 51.111 million dollars.
Borat will be happy that he “blew” up the posting system.
Yeah, everything points to the Red Sox signing this kid… but so what? I’m far from convinced and somewhat leaning (say 51.111% certain) that the Sox aren’t making an offer in good faith. I CANNOT believe that an 8 mill./year deal is good faith.
10million? Sure… but maybe borderline. 12/year. Yes and it should get done there and will be a steal when you look at future pitching FA’s for the next Hot Stove season and figure what they’ll make per season. If the Sox don’t go up to 12 mill/year they’re assinine.
Sorry, I should have clarified…what happens if it is determined that the negotiations were not in good faith? Is there any legal recourse for any of the parties involved, or are we just left with a whole lot of sour grapes?
Oh, and incidentally, I don’t think that portraying Borat as a villain in the media is meant as a tactic to manipulate HIM…I suggested it may be a way for the Red Sox FO to hedge their bets with the fans. If he was affected by public opinion…well, he wouldn’t be where he is today. He would have long since swallowed the business end of his own unlicensed 45. Or joined a monastery.
Not that the Sox Brass really give a damn what we think, but I can’t imagine it would hurt them PR-wise to slander Borat for the benefit of the more viscerally inclined fans.
Matsui signed a 3 year/21 mil deal; Ichiro a 3 year/14 million deal. That is the precedent, even if the Sox only offered 7 million you could not say they negotiated in bad faith since these are the contracts of comparable stars coming in from Japan. There is no way that argument can be used giving those two contracts.
In order for the Sox to sign Matsuzaka, one of the following three things will have to happen…
1. Matsuzaka tells Boras that he’s tired of being used as an example of why the posting system doesn’t work and forces Boras to agree to the $8M/year deal.
2. The Sox raise their offer to $12M/year, something that I think Matsuzaka would be willing to accept.
3. Boras has simply been playing hard to get and is stalling to see how much the Sox are willing to increase their offer by. He actually intends to agree to whatever’s offered.
But a 4th possibility is that Selig could step in neutrally. If Selig’s intentions are simply to undermine the posting process, I think Selig has a responsibility to get into the negotiations and make sure that it’s actually Matsuzaka not wanting to sign, rather than Boras taking advantage of the situation.
Any one of the 4 happens and Matsuzaka will have a #18 Red Sox jersey fitted to him within weeks — otherwise, sayonara Dice-K.
Boras will hold a press conference at 9PM Eastern tonight, probably about Matsuzaka.
Good thing? Bad thing? Boras being Boras?
Matsuzaka may or may not appear at the press conference though I doubt Boras would let Dice-K out of his sight for a minute right now. I would actually prefer it if Matsuzaka WEREN’T there. If he is, one of two things is probably happening…
1. Dice-K says he’s going back to Japan
2. Dice-K says he’s signing a contract
It could all come down to this, and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing.
I don’t see how 8mil per year is not a fair offer, and certainly not how it isn’t at least a starting point. He has never played in the majors. Why should he get paid as though he is a proven commodity?
Because the odds of him performing at a lower level then guys like Gil Meche, Miguel Batista, and Vincente Padilla are slim to none. And he should probably be paid at at least their level.
With agent Scott Boras declaring last night that if “the parties’ positions remain the same, Daisuke will return to Japan,” the Red Sox top brass were in southern California to meet face-to-face with Daisuke Matsuzaka in a last-ditch attempt to induce him to sign.
Boras said that GM Theo Epstein, accompanied by principal owner John W. Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino, had come to conduct negotiating sessions last night and today in an attempt to beat Thursday’s midnight deadline for a deal.
source
That link should actually be going here.
Thanks for the update, Evan.
Any idea what Boras said/is saying during the press conference?
Note to Theo: just give him the $15M/year that Boras wants. You need to sign him and if that’s the only way you can do it, well, DO IT!
You guys might also be interested to know that Gammons’ latest blog entry says Boras has been refusing to lower his request from the $18-20MM range.
“”The deadline for signing Matsuzaka is technically Thursday midnight, but because of the need for a physical, the de facto deadline is probably Tuesday or Wednesday. In the meanwhile, the ongoing discussions are more theoretical than monetary, which promises that the negotiations will go down to the last hours and the final blinks. Both sides are trying to figure out creative ways to bridge the gap between the club’s $8 million-$10 million AAV (average annual value) offer and Boras’ $18 million-$20 million requests, but the longer it remains theoretical, the less likelihood it gets done.”
Source
RH: Boras essentially said “me want money.”
That’s basically what I expected.
With about 12 hours of meeting with Boras and Matsuzaka tomorrow, I hope Theo and Co. will offer something that Dice-K is willing to accept.
I’m hearing rumors that if Matsuzaka doesn’t sign, Selig will be VERY disappointed with Boras or the Red Sox if he learns that one of the two was at fault for not making a good-faith effort to reach an agreement.
And now the biggest question: would you offer 6-years for $100M?
I know it’s a lot, no wait, A LOT, but I would.
The Herald changed its story. Silverman wrote before that Boras claimed Matsuzaka deserved a long-term deal of at laest $100MM. He retracted and erased that entry, saying that Boras never stated what Matsuzaka deserved, but merely observed the fact that other pitchers are going to get contracts exceeding $100MM. So, basically instead of giving us something to debate about (Should we risk $100MM over 6 years?) we’re back where we started, wondering just how much Boras is asking for.
It can’t be more than $100M though…which is a good sign…
Globe says Epstein’s making a new offer tomorrow, (technically later today) which will be the largest ever given to someone who has yet to played in the majors. So, it’s at least worth more than $32MM, which is what Contreras got…I think that’s the biggest, right? I think it gets done.
As a longstanding Sox fan, 60 years, it seems to me to be more Boras bullshit, as an earlier blogger suggested. When has he EVER wrapped up a deal before the last minute & then “choke-style”?