Curt Schilling recently made it public of his desire to extend his illustrious career one more season, foregoing retirement until after the 2008 season at the earliest. His clear passion and tremendous love for the game of baseball, along with a thumbs up from the wife and kids, were the main reasons Schilling has decided to enter the ring a little longer. The negotiations for a contract extension have already been introduced to the public by the non-bashful Schilling remarking to Dennis and Callahan on WEEI that the ball is in the Sox court to come up with a fair deal.
Three main points have been concluded early in this process: 1) Curt wants to play in Boston in 2008 more than any other city, 2) he’s willing to accept an extension that matches his current salary at 13M, 3) he’s only looking for a one year extension for 08 and 4) if a deal is not struck before the end of spring training, Schill will be on the open market for a new home in 2008. From the personal standpoint, the deal makes perfect sense for Curt and the Schilling family. His business is starting to build, his kids are enrolled in Boston schools and it’s a strong likelihood this is a place where Curt has a strong chance of pitching in big games every year. Deep down, Schilling would like nothing more than to stay where he is.
But the true question that will determine if Schilling plays in Boston in 2008 is whether or not the front office feels the need to strike a deal at this point in time. With the young influx of pitching making its way through the Red Sox minor league, does hanging on to a 40-year old declining pitcher at 13M annually make sense for the organization? Curt Schilling, more than anyone, fully understands that baseball is more of a business than anything. If this in any fashion throws a blockade in front of the Red Sox long-term goals, they have shown the past few years a willingness to let loved Boston players flee.
Would the money make sense? Well, Schilling’s numbers certainly show he won’t be converting to 2004 form in the latter stages of his career, and some future PECOTA predictions give hints of a slow decline into mediocrity. With the big fuss I made over Todd Helton’s OPS numbers last week, why would I be on the Schilling-extension camp when his numbers from 2004 (3.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) to 2006 (3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) clearly regress?
I approve of a 2008 extension for the following reasons: First, the inflated market these days can overblow what a pitcher is actually worth in terms of on-field performance. I wrote a few months ago during the peak of the unreal free-agent contracts that we should accept the Drew and Lugo signings while looking at the current structure of the money pool in baseball. Theo and the front office’s main job is to contend with the other baseball teams in contest for the services of a player, and sometimes they are not in control of the bargaining cost, but the grand landscape of baseball is. Curt Schilling for 13M in 2008 looks pretty favorable when you see this:
Gil Meche – 97 ERA+ and 5 year/$55 till 2012
Ted Lilly – 109 ERA+ and 4 year/$40 till 2011
Barry Zito – 116 ERA+ and 7/$126 till 2014
Curt Schilling – 116 ERA+ and 1/$13 till 2008
All of a sudden, a one-year extension for Schilling looks like a bargain.
The age is concerning, yes, but think about what pitchers in the 40-range have done lately. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were each 40 years old last year and put up pretty solid seasons. Randy Johnson, before he lost cartilage in his knees and his back imploded, was a top of the rotation pitcher and older than Schilling. And we have no problem with giving Clemens another year in the Boston spotlight.
The other main reason I approve of an extension for Schilling is the obvious risk with our current rotation. We learned last year that a roster can never have enough pitching depth. Josh Beckett is coming off his worst season as a pro, a home run machine, a total 5.00 ERA disaster, and there’s some cause for concern over whether he can A) get back to #2 starter form in Boston and B) stay injury-free. Daisuke Matsuzaka has never pitched in the major leagues. Tim Wakefield may retire after this season. We still are not sure if Papelbon is a staying force in the rotation or if he’ll be shifted to the bullpen.
While Jon Lester, Clay Buccholz and Daniel Bard show tons of potential for the future, top prospects have flamed out before. Keeping Schilling another year would allow not only those three, but also pitchers like Bowden and Masterson, to move up the minors on their own pace and perfect their repetoire for the majors. Stability and depth in the rotation is not something to pass up on. Plus, anytime you have a man as knowledgeable and intelligent about opposing hitters that will gladly pass on that knowledge to young pitchers, he’s an off-the-field weapon as well.
That’s all fine and dandy, but how will Schilling produce on the field? Will he be worth 13M in 2008, or somewhere in that area? PECOTA predicts Schill will be worth $14,925,000 in 2007 and just $8,600,000 in 2008. Why the significant drop?
2007: 198 IP, 14-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 37.6 VORP, 5.3 WARP, 6.7 K/9, .303 BABIP
2008: 156 IP, 10-7, 4.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 21.6 VORP, 3.4 WARP, 6.5 K/9, .307 BABIP
That’s a pretty steep decline and cause for concern. PECOTA is banking on Schilling probably hitting the DL by the drop in innings pitched and a large increase in ERA at 41 years old.
Still, the Red Sox should ease up and give Curt his extension. Even after I named all of the problems that could arise with the Sox rotation in the future, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Beckett, Lester and Buccholz are all under 27 and should improve in 2008 from 2007 as they hit their prime years. Remember, Schilling doesn’t necessarily have to be a #1 starter, just an upper-middle rotation type pitcher who provides stability, consistency, an average ERA and mentors the young group of pitchers making their way to the big leagues.
For all Curt has done in Boston (sacrificing his career, talking to fans on message boards, charity work), he deserves 13 million for 2008. He’s not asking for a big pay raise. He’s asking for more than one year. He’s not complaining about the negotiations and understands why Boston may not hand over large sums of money to him in an instant. But because Schilling did go public with the talks, the pressure is on the Red Sox to get this finished. They have until the end of spring training to extend Schilling, and it seems like a doable move at this time.
2009? Well, that’s a different story.
UPDATE by Evan: Seems like a good time to change the poll. You can vote over on the right if Schilling should be resigned or not. Here’s the results of the previous poll:
Athleticism on the Sox was discussed. How should an offense be built?
* Give me the walks and the homers. I’ll take my chances.
22% of all votes
* Pitching should be the focus. We don’t need an offense.
13% of all votes
* Everything should try to be balanced.
61% of all votes
* Walks? That’s Moneyball. Give me contact and speed!
4% of all votes
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I think the Sox and Wakefield have a renewable contract at the end of every year or something along those lines…or am I just imagining this? But Schilling is definitely worth keeping around plus I’d much rather see Lester get a full year in AAA to hone his skills.
Lorf: You’re correct. The Red Sox hold renewable club options of $4.5m. If Wakefield retires, then we don’t need to guarantee the option.
Lester had 26 starts last year between AAA and ML. By 2008 he will have all he can get from the minors. This kid deserves a shot. The money is correct for Schilling, i’ll agree with that. But with not signing him we allow ourselves a lot of payroll flexiblity. Next year FA class is extremely strong at the top. I love Schilling but Lester should be able to take his place at a much cheaper price.
Zach -
I completely agree. He’s getting old yes. Curt’s motive’s? For all intents and purposes I believe they are genuine and I am only slightly skeptical. Of course he’s not going to be the guy he was in 2004, but he brings a strong, veteran presence who has succeeded in a tight division like the AL east. He won’t be the Schilling of old, but I’ll take this Schilling over Gil Meche, Zito, and anyone else who’s not worth their contract.
Message to the Red Sox: in this market an extra year of a proven big game pitcher makes sense, especially with the simple negotiating terms ( 1 more year, 13 million more). The last thing I want is Buchholz, Bard or anyone else we consider one of our arms for the future coming up to early. It makes perfect sense, and in fact given how we are spending cash I think Curt is doing us a favor.
I’ve got to say, Curt for one more year doesn’t seem like a bad thing. He might not be the ace, but he can still teach our young guys how to pitch while putting up good enough numbers to win games. Let’s not forget, he was our best starter last year.
You’ve convinced me, Zach. I was against this, but why rush Buchholz? Bard and Bowden I don’t think we need to worry about. My only concern is Wakefield/Schilling blocking Lester, but if Wake retires … or is moved to the pen …
again, you’ve convinced me.
I disagree with this. I really want to see these kids up here in 2008 making league minimum. Lester next year should be able to beat a 4.31 and 1.29 and at only a fraction of the cost, free up money to spend in other places. He has been a pretty good guy to have around the past 2 years and its hard to forget what he has done, but that doesn’t mean we should tax our future in an attempted to reward him.
I don’t think it’s taxing the future. I also think that Lester hitting those numbers in his first full year in the rotation could be a stretch…Let’s not forget Wakefield. I may be mistaken, but doesn’t his contract end after this year? And let’s not forget, it’s one year! I think Schill could get away with it for one year. If the numbers drop though, I doubt the Sox would go through the same scenario again.
Give the kids time. The more they hone their skills, the better it will be. Plus their great insurance should Schilling, D-Mat, Paps, or Beckett go down in 2008. Hypothetically speaking, of course.
The Sox definitely need to re-sign Schilling — and I have a feeling they will.
The worst part, for me at least, is the possibility that Schilling will sign with the Blue Jays (perhaps), bolstering their rotation, but also pitching against the Sox much more often than we’d like him to.
1-year, $13M: Make the offer, Theo!
Dave B -
If Schilling wanted a multi-year extension I would probably agree with you (and I emphasize probably) but we’re talking about a one year deal. I still think we will be active in free agency in the year’s to come, as long as it makes sense for the overall make-up of the team.
If Wakefield can come off the books at the end of this year and we don’t re-sign him and Lowell enters free agency, you’ve got your 13 million right there.
Lester needs some more work I feel. Either way, I think he will join the rotation next season. If LorfTVP is right about Wakefield we will see Lester and either Schilling/Wakefield in the rotation. I think honestly it’s a no brainer.
Dave B:
What is Wakefield retires? Lester can slot in.
If he doesn’t, we can bring Lester along as a reliever.
If Schilling wanted more than one year, I’d have an issue, but he only wants one more year.
Lester as a relief pitcher is a disservice to him. I would rather see him spend 2 more years in AAA than 1 in the pen. Plus, what more does Lester have to prove besides his health. He has shown he has more than capable stuff. Posted a 2.61 ERA, 9.89 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP in AA and a 2.70 ERA, 8.29 K/9 and 1.46 WHIP (alright that could go down). Not to mention, he is a lefty. He is exactly what this team needs in their rotation. Sadly, he might not get his shot this year, but it is a crime for him to not get it in 2008.
Don’t get me wrong i love Schilling, but he is not close to worth 13-14 million, like the author showed using PECOTA. Look at the 2008 FA class, there are some really good players out there that i would much rather us spend our money. Pitchers like Jennings, Smoltz, and Zambrano are set to hit the market. Relief pitchers like Nathan, Linebrink, Isringhausen, Wickman and Hoffman are FAs. OFs like Dunn, Jones, and Suzuki are FAs. All of those players would be a better investment.
Saying Lowell and Wake come off the books means absolutely nothing. They are coming off the books whether or not Schilling does. The payroll is crazy this year, mainly because of some awful deals that Theo has made. Have we already forgot about 2005. This man is no spring chicken and if he is forcing our hand before the season it is stupid to sign him. Trust me, if i knew he would end this season healthy i would do it in a second, but i don’t know that and i don’t think it is more likely than not. But hey, maybe he will revert back to 2004 and 13 million will be a steal, i just don’t see it.
As to his businesses:
http://www.greenmonstergames.net/
McFarlane (yes, he of the McGwire Collection) did design for some of the creatures in Ultima Online2, which was scrapped, though some of his monsters made it into the original UO, as I recall.
Salvatore has made the vast majority of his fame and wealth writing in the Forgotten Realms (D&D) universe. It will be interesting to see what he can come up with, as his self made universes are a little lackluster.
I adventured a couple of times with Schilling (and I believe Todd Pratt) playing the original Everquest, which I know Salvatore played as well. I assume that GMG is going to venture into the world of MMORPG’s, but it is a very crowded market, and maybe a good old adventure game, which would play more to Salvatore’s and McFarlane’s strengths is on the docket.
[...] The Red Sox have chosen to not give Schilling an extension before the season and will file for free agency after 2007 (I wrote about this topic earlier). [...]