I haven’t exactly been quiet in my criticism of the Joel Pineiro deal. To demonstrate just how appalled I was with the pickup to this point, here were my thoughts on it on couple weeks ago. I claimed that “the low point of the offseason was [the Red Sox] acquisition of a “closer.” It always makes me happy when my team pays $4 million for another team’s garbage. I wonder if working garbage detail will work out any better this time than it did when we picked up Javy Lopez, Jason Johnson and Kyle Snyder last year. If by some miracle, Pineiro is anything more than passable in the role this will truly be our year.” I’d say that summarized my opinion on the deal more or less since the day the Red Sox acquired Joel Pineiro. I’m sure many of you still are of a similar opinion. After all, Pineiro did have a rather atrocious year in 2006. He had an ERA of 6.36 and a WHIP of 1.65 while making his home appearances in what many would consider to be a pitcher’s park.
So, being the responsible Red Sox fan that I am, I decided to watch video of Pineiro from last season. I went into the experience expecting to find what was wrong with him so I could point out just why it was that he wouldn’t cut it on the Red Sox. So I began with his only recorded save last year on September 8th. Pineiro pitched 2 innings while allowing 3 hits and 2 runs. The only problem was, in watching the video I didn’t see what I expected. Pineiro breezed through the first inning retiring the batters in order. It wasn’t until after a 26 minute wait, in which Seattle scored 4 runs, that Pineiro gave up a hit or a run. Even then, he was doing what he should have been doing. With a 7 run lead, he attacked the hitters making sure not to walk anyone and although he gave up 2 runs he appeared to keep his confidence and poise.
Unsatisfied, I decided to watch his September 23rd game in which he blew a save by giving up 3 hits, 4 earned runs and 3 BB in 1 inning. This outing more confirmed what I expected to find, but still I was surprised and a little disappointed. Although Pineiro gave up a home run and 2 walks to the first 3 batters of the game, he really shouldn’t have been charged with all those runs and hits. When the fourth batter of the inning laid down a sacrifice bunt, Seattle manager Mike Hargrove forced Pineiro to intentionally walk the next batter. Then, with the bases loaded, Pineiro induced a ground ball that should have been a double play but first baseman Richie Sexson misplayed it, only getting the out at home. On the next pitch, Pineiro induced another weak ground ball to first but Richie Sexson misplayed that one as well. This time he tripped over the umpire and never made the easy toss to first for the out. By now, I was legitimately disappointed. I had trouble finding another relief appearance in which Pineiro’s line looked bad and didn’t know what to watch. So, with a change of heart I decided to watch his September 5th appearance against the Tigers.
What a surprise I found. Pineiro looked great! In 3.2 innings against the Tigers, Pineiro retired all 11 batters in a row while not allowing a single walk. In doing so he protected just a 1 run lead. He looked like he truly belonged on the mound with a scowl and presence to match that of Mike Timlin. He kept almost all his pitches at knees of the batters while hitting the corners and getting good movement on his breaking pitches. Long story short, I watched many of the other appearances he made out of the pen and found more of the same. Given these findings, I’d say that Joel Pineiro most definitely deserves my apologies. Sure, he’s no Jonathan Papelbon, but he has a very good chance of being a legitimate closer.
For those of you not sure what to expect when Pineiro comes out of the pen in 2006, here’s a quick scouting report. Joel will be similar to Jonathan Papelbon of last year in that he has command of more pitches than your average closer. He features a 4-seam fastball, a 2-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball and a changeup. Pineiro in relief last year could routinely hit the lower corners of the plate with his 4-seamer which sits at about 92 mph. He also managed to throw a hard 4-seamer with good movement dropping down out of the zone. It routinely sits around 90 mph. Pineiro’s breaking pitches almost all clocked in at between 84-86 mph. His slider was especially impressive as he was able to get lots of weak ground balls with it. Pineiro had a real knack for keeping the ball low and on the corners of the plate. I was very impressed with his control as he didn’t walk many and rarely even got close to putting runners on. He had a great presence and confidence on the mound and was able to induce a shocking number of weak ground balls and shallow pop-ups. The only thing to be wary of is that he does occasionally leave a pitch up on the zone. It’s not that he did it routinely but in the games in which he had trouble it was because he would leave a pitch or two up. When he does, it can be hit a long ways.
QUICK NOTE: I like to make a quick little comment at the end of my posts. For those of you who don’t have time to read a whole column, it provides for you some quick content and for those of you who do read my columns in their entirety it provides for you a nice reward. I’m fully aware that I’m no Peter Gammons so you probably deserve one. For those of you who aren’t aware, tomorrow will be our first Spring Training game. Sure, by the 5th inning it will be all minor leaguers but it’s the symbolic meaning that counts. Curt Schilling will start against the Twins in a game scheduled for 7:05. Come on guys! The Mayor’s Cup is on the line. I can’t wait to finally see Red Sox players in action again. It’s almost as if it wasn’t 12 degrees outside right now. I look forward to my first Red Sox season here at MVN.
ANOTHER QUICK NOTE BY EVAN: Time’s running out to vote in the poll on the right! Haven’t voted? Do us a favor and throw your opinion in that poll – it’s a very legitimate question and I plan on writing about the results extensively.
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Excellent post and work. Stumbled onto it while looking for info on Joel Pineiro.
I run a statistical analysis of pitchers for fantasy baseball each year that looks at their peripherals (K/IP, BB/IP, HR/IP) and tries to determine which pitchers were better/worse than their stats suggest. It’s not a perfect program, but does do a good job of finding some sleepers (for example, it gave me John Lackey and Aaron Harang last year). For what it’s worth, the program spit out Pineiro as the pitcher whose ERA looked worst relative to what his other stats indicate. Between his changing role and the problems in Seattle, his stats, and your analysis, I tend to think Pineiro might be a pretty useful pitcher this year (and very useful for fantasy purposes if he nails down the closer job).
Your stats aren’t right…..Piniero pitched 15 games in relief, but he had 24.3 IP and a 4.81 ERA. How are you coming up with 39.3 and 2.97?
cmd, I’m not sure what games you’re using. He switched from relief to starting throughout the season so you’re probably using starting stats for relief stats, which would be an easy mistake to make. I personally went through all 15 relief appearances he made (he did make some short starting appearances that my look like relief appearances but aren’t) and tabulated my numbers. Where did you see that he had a 4.81 ERA in relief last year?
Great analysis, Mike. Very interesting stuff. And after reading it, I’m more convinced that Sox brass was not sniffing glue when they signed Pineiro.
I don’t know if he actually will work out as a closer, but he’s probably as good a low cost gamble as anyone. There have been plenty of failed starters in history who transitioned well to the bullpen, so maybe Pineiro can too. We’re due for one of those “lightning in a bottle” guys…right?
Comparing Joel Pineiro to Jason Johnson at all is ridiculous. Piniero at least has had some success as a starting pitcher. Jason Johnson at his best has been mediocre. A simple glance at the comparables, not to mention the career stats, on baseballreference.com will show this. Pineiro has shown an ability at some point in his career to get hitters out consistently at this level. Why he hasn’t recently is certainly an interesting question. I definitely think he has the stuff to succeed as a closer. I don’t see the argument that $4m dollars is a gross expenditure, especially for the Sox. It seems like a pretty good deal to me.
Nice post, Mike. I have a feeling this Pineiro thing will work out better than expected — even if he doesn’t pan-out as the closer.
By the way, if you haven’t yet, go to YouTube and search “Matsuzaka”, or something close to that and watch some video of Dice-K. I just spent the past 30 minutes doing it and some of his breaking stuff is simply surreal. It’s well worth it if you’ve got the time.
Fascinating article – appreciate the research!
MLB.com says that Pineiro had 24.1 innings of relief with a 4.81 ERA 1.19 WHIP.
I live in MI, and watch/listen to a lot of Tigers games. That appearence was the first thing I thought of when Theo signed Piniero. For that reason I liked it then, and still do. Stuff and potential. That’s really all relievers ever are until you plug them in and see how they do…
Mike – excellent article.
Another Theo type bullpen high risk/reward type of deal. He’s obviously trying to get the most bang for his buck, and he’s due to get one of these right. I think he could do well.
Mike,
Good work, can’t tell who’s relief stats are correct but I like what you saw. I also have panned the Piniero deal from day one. Somewhere since we picked him up I have read that he has worked on his arm slot position with what sounded like good results. I couldn’t seem to find that story though. Maybe someone else saw that too. Spring hopes are eternal.
Shane, that seems to differ from the numbers lasted on Yahoo’s player search.
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Mike, awesome column, some of the best researched stuff I’ve seen in a while. I’ve been a Theo (and Bill James, they do work together, along with a freighter-full of other smart people, after all) fan since day one. Looks like they may have tried to find a guy who is ready to step up (and if you can discover what you found imagine what they can find with access to scouting reports, etc…….) and signed him up without giving up anything in return. And why does anyone bother with the hand wringing over a ‘whole 4 million’ dollars spent on a player? Unless you are like the Devil Rays or the Royals that is close to the average salary these days. Was there someone better that only cost 3 million? At our level I think it is kind of silly to discuss salary amounts as if it was our money, or like it was a fantasy team we were counting pennies for; the economic realities are far more complex and involved than any of us want to begin to get involved with. Really. If the guy can pitch, or if he might be able to, should be all we really need to worry about.
The guy might just be able to pitch. Cool.
Mike I found this article in Cape Cod Times today:http://www.capecodonline.com/cctimes/sports/duca.htm
Pineiro could be the Red Sox answer to the most visible hole on the team, and it’s hardly confidence-inspiring to consider that the Mariners placed him in the bullpen last August because he couldn’t get anyone out as a starter.
He went 8-13 with a frightening 6.36 ERA last season, posting 1-1, 4.81 numbers, with 20 strikeouts in 24 innings, after being sent to the bullpen,.
But Pineiro was a different pitcher over the final month after lowering his arm slot from high over his head to a three-quarters delivery. The shift increased the velocity on his fastball and gave his breaking pitches more movement.
Kevin, Pineiro was sent in and out of the bullpen multiple times. I attempted to compile numbers from every one of his relief appearances, not just the ones after he was sent for the final time to the pen. If 4.81 was his total ERA as a reliever then that article would be incorrect in saying it was his ERA after he was sent to the pen (assuming that they mean the final time he was sent to the pen). Ether way, you aren’t the only one to bring up this discrepancy and I’m looking into it right now. I’ll be sure to let you know what I find ASAP.
Mike,
I sent that article for two reasons to maybe help on the ERA question and secondly because it stated as I frustatingly could not find the fact in my first post here about the fact that Piniero had changed his arm slot. I stumbled upon the article in a paper I don’t typically don’t find much good baseball info in that obviously had the two points of info that pertained to my comment last night .
The announcers were saying the same thing about his arm slot in the games I was watching from last season and Don and Remy talked about it more tonight. Since he changed it he’s been able to get quite a few more ground balls thanks to the added sink.