Ah, our favorite team ’round these parts … what’s the team looking like this year? It’s strong. It’s not without its questions, but boy, this looks like a team to be reckoned with…
Statistics code: AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters. W-L, ERA, WHIP for starters. ERA, WHIP, IP for relievers.
C: Jason Varitek (2006 stats: .238/.325/.400) | Doug Mirabelli (2006 stats: .191/.267/.328)
Coming off an off-season, Varitek is looking to get back into the swing of things, but isn’t looking so hot this spring training. While much of Tek’s value is tied up in his excellent defense, preparation of game and game-calling, he can’t be an offensive black hole, either. Expected to kick off the season batting seventh or eighth, Varitek can offset any inability to hit the ball by getting on base (as evidenced by his .87 Isolated Eye from last year). However, to truly make the lineup a deep, solid lineup, Varitek needs to revert to at least his career line of .269/.348/.450. One thing he has been able to do well is go deeper into the count. Starting in 2004, Varitek has seen at least 4.02 pitches per plate appearance, never cracking higher than 3.96 in his career before.
Doug Mirabelli, infamously acquired in the Cla Meredith/Josh Bard trade and then dashing to Fenway in a police cruiser, had a forgettable season at the plate, but evened things out considerably for Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has made it no secret that he’s thrilled to have Mirabelli back behind the plate this year. Belli, who once was considered the premier backup catcher in the league, has age starting to catch up to him at age 36. Still solid behind the plate, he should be a fine complement to Varitek, but the Red Sox have made it clear that his time in a Red Sox uniform remains limited and George Kottaras may be Varitek’s backup in 2008.
1B: Kevin Youkilis (2006 stats: .279/.381/.429) | Eric Hinske (2006 stats: .271/.353/.487)
Youkilis enjoyed a fine season last year, playing full time and exhibiting good defense at first-base. Entering his age 28 year, he may be able to improve his power, but his discerning batting eye is all too valuable and the most important. Seeing a ridiculous 4.42 pitches per plate appearance, Youkilis is expected to bat in the two-hole this season and should score well more than the 100 runs he scored last year. Baseball Prospectus projects a PECOTA season of .271/.376/.456 line for Youkilis, virtually identical to last year, but with more power. PECOTA also projects Youkilis to be a lot like retired Seattle Mariners DH Edgar Martinez. Martinez hit .302/.397/.433 in his age 27 year (his first full-time year…) and then Martinez followed that up with a .307/.405/.452 year, and then embarked on his streak of 11 years dominance. Let’s hope for the same for Youk.
Eric Hinske is viewed by many as a fluke Rookie of the Year winner who fell flat on his face after winning it in 2002. True. But he recovered in 2006. Just look at his .271/.353/.487 line. That’s a very, very solid line and is essentially the line that got him to win that Rookie of the Year award. Hinske, who can play first, third, left and right, should be a capable backup at all these positions over the course of the year. Considering we have a glut of corner outfielders who can hit, Hinske may find himself a trading chip as the year goes on. Until then, he is the injury backup to Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis.
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2006 stats: .191/.258/.303) | Alex Cora (2006 stats: .238/.312/.298)
Pedroia suffered through a lousy callup to the majors last year, with an abominably low BABIP. Pedroia, who has succeeded at every rung of the minor league system so far, is now going to ply his trade in the majors. I have to laugh at all his detractors. I’ve heard statements such as “he swings for the fences. He will fail in the majors, his game isn’t homers.” Really? It’s not. Wow, I’m sure you could have surprised both Pedroia and I by that, considering he hit 100 HRs in Pawtucket. Yes. We know. His game isn’t HRs. Other statements are “Is Dustin Pedroia really going to play second for the Red Sox?” Yes, Mr. Scout Who Knows So Much I Should Just Bow At Your Feet In Awesome And Holy Reverence. He’s only hit for a career line of .308/.392/.454 in the minors. Derek Jeter’s .308/.385/.418 minor league line doesn’t even compare, right? Jeter rules! Pedroia drools!
Alex Cora will probably take a lot of Pedroia’s at-bats this year, much like he took away from Alex Gonzalez last year. Cora is a very solid backup middle infielder and has a history of being able to hit. He may not hit for average or power, but he can sure take a walk, which is really all that matters for a prototypical all-glove, no-hit sort of player. Cora is also loved by the organization and is viewed as a future managerial candidate, as is Jason Varitek. Don’t be surprised if Gabe Kapler eventually becomes the manager of the Red Sox, though.
3B: Mike Lowell (2006 stats: .284/.339/.475)
Lowell came through with a rebound 2006 season after falling flat on his face in 2005 with the Marlins. Many people felt he was done, but he sure showed them, racking up the doubles. While he doesn’t light the world on fire, he is a more than capable hitter who also has a Gold Glove to his name for racking up the outs at third base, which will be all too valuable this year as Julio Lugo is prone to making errors off errant throws. Lowell is entering his free agent year, making $9 million at the age of 33. If he can have another strong year, he should pull down another lucrative contract. This will be one of the more interesting stories to follow this season. If he can have a strong year, the Red Sox will probably sign him to a two- or three-year contract. If not, there will be a gaping hole at third (or first, if Kevin Youkilis transitions back to third) with no appetizing options in free agency.
SS: Julio Lugo (2006 stats: .278/.341/.421)
A brand-new comer to the Red Sox, a lot of people will be curious as to what Lugo can do. Lugo has been known to hit for average, for power, for both, or for neither. His line this past year is still pretty strong despite his horrendous showing for the Dodgers in a part-time role after being traded (he hit .308/.373/.498 in a full-time role for Tampa Bay). He has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy, who is always happy to see everybody. Joe Maddon, the manager of the Devil Rays, is a huge fan of Lugo, who brings to mind Orlando Cabrera with his sunny disposition. Lugo has better range than Alex Gonzalez, it has been said. However, Lugo is dicey about setting his feet right and often makes awkward (and therefore, errant) throws, racking up the errors to around 20. One thing is for sure: Theo Epstein has wanted Lugo ever since he took office, Lugo can hit, Lugo has a great personality, and Lugo is our shortstop for the next four years.
LF: Manny Ramirez (2006 stats: .321/.439/.619) | Wily Mo Pena (2006 stats: .301/.349/.489)
Ah, Manny Ramirez. The guy who can flat out hit. The guy who signed a contract. The guy who won’t stop trying to leave. The guy who can hit. The guy who can hit … and hit … and hit … and hit … and hit. Let’s just pencil Manny in for his .300/30/100 and call it a day.
Wily Mo Pena is going to get 400 at-bats this year, apparently. He had a very strong 2006 coming off the bench for most of the year, and is slowly improving. This year is going to be tremendously important for Wily Mo. Can he keep making strides? I ask this because his career line is .261/.315/.480. If he hit .261 last year instead of .301, his line becomes: .261/.309/.489. Interesting, huh? Very similar to his career line, and one that makes him a bench player on a good team, and a starter on a bad team (unless that .489 SLG shoots way up to, say, .550). If Wily Mo Pena can continue making significant strides, the Red Sox can start counting on him as a viable part of the future of the Red Sox. If not? Trade bait. Until then, he’ll play every outfield position and spell Big Papi at DH on occasion. He anchors a very good and deep bench for the Red Sox as the utter threat coming off the bench. Invaluable in the late innings.
CF: Coco Crisp (2006 stats: .264/.317/.385)
Coco Crisp’s season ended the day he slid into third base and wreaked havoc with his finger. People have started becoming tremendously down on him. Let’s walk through this. Crisp has a history of success, is young, moved to a new city, hurt himself, and rushed himself back. And I’m supposed to believe he’s terrible? Sorry, not happening. I can’t tell you what he will do this year, but here’s what he did his last healthy year, which was in 2005: .300/.345/.465, 16 HR, 42 2B. He’s entering his age 27 year. Can we give him a fair shot before running him out of town?
RF: J.D. Drew (2006 stats: .283/.393/.498)
J.D. Drew is a Boston Red Sox, and looks like a younger, healthier version of Trot Nixon who won’t need to be platooned. Drew is a force in the field who has a discerning batting eye and solid pop. The Sox grew concerned over issues with his shoulder, so drafted up a very specific loophole that says the Red Sox can jump ship if his right shoulder injury continues. Drew had a very good 2006 season batting in Dodger Stadium and will bring his bat to the AL for the first time in his career. Pitchers who make the switch from the AL to NL always improve, and the same goes for hitters, so we may see an excellent season out of Drew, or he may break his back bending over to pick up his bat on Opening Day, losing him for his career. We’ll see.
DH: David Ortiz (2006 stats: .287/.413/.636)
Big Papi … what is there more to say? A guy who loves the world, comes in with a smile on his face, enjoys blinding people with all his bling, stepping up to the place, winning the game, jumping on home plate, going home, sleeping, then waking up and doing it all again. Papi says he has entered 2007 stronger, and he looks like it as his gut is gone. Considering he hit 54 HR while missing a week due to heart problems, if he can keep up that pace on top of being stronger … goodness gracious.
SP: Curt Schilling (2006 stats: 15-7, 3.97, 1.22) | Josh Beckett (2006 stats: 16-11, 5.01, 1.29) | Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006 stats: 17-5, 2.13 for Japan) | Tim Wakefield (2006 stats: 7-11, 4.63, 1.33) | Julian Tavarez (2006 stats: 504, 4.47, 1.56)
Curt Schilling rebounded nicely from an off 2005, and now instead of making 2007 his swan song, is looking to propel himself into the Hall of Fame with a strong 2007 (and another payday). He looks solid this Spring Training, and should continue his usual stinginess with walks. In his two injury-free seasons, he has notched over 200 innings a year for the Red Sox with ERA’s of 3.26 and 3.97. I would expect much of the same this year, barring injury. However, since his foot issues, he has had no health problems whatsoever.
Josh Beckett suffered through a tough 2005 and saw his ERA soar over 5.00 due to his final start being an absolute trainwreck (it was 4.82 before). He’s had a flat-out excellent spring and Schilling is high on Beckett as well. Beckett has been utilizing his curveball more (something he did not due until the late stages of 2005) and has refined his command of the plate. He also apparently has eczema on his finger, which led to his blister problems. Having experienced eczema, I can tell you that if diagnosed and controlled, it should not be an issue except for a flare-up every now and then. Fortunately, no blister problems occurred with Beckett last year.
So much has been said about Dice-K, what is there more to say? He’s been fantastic this spring training (and was upset about a start in which he gave up ZERO hits). He looks like the absolute real deal, but we certainly won’t know that until the end of the regular season. I do think that the potential issue of him being in a five-man rotation rather than six is overblown because his pitch counts will stay around 100 each start rather than 150-170, which should take care of the extra starts altogether.
Tim Wakefield was on the disabled list for the first time in his career last year, but he still posted a very solid ERA for the sixth straight year. He says he is completely free of back issues, and since he’s been very consistent in production since being a starter, just pencil him in for a 4.50 ERA and leave it at that.
Julian Tavarez preview written by Fire Brand friend Mike: Most people are happy to hear that Jonathan Papelbon is once again going to be the Red Sox closer. They arenít so happy when they hear that Julian Tavarez is going to be filling the empty spot in the rotation to replace Papelbon. When most people think of Julian Tavarez, they simply think ìhe stinksî and leave it at that. As a reliever last season, Julian Tavarez did basically stink. He wasnít disgusting, but he was bad. He was 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and managed to add in two blown saves in there somewhere. His WHIP was 1.60. The worst part is that his ERA at Fenway was 5.06 as a reliever. In talking to my friends and other people, Iím really surprised at how few remember Julian Tavarezís September. I guess I canít blame everyone because who wouldnít want to forget the Red Sox’s September 2006 as a whole. It was a really depressing time, but Julian Tavarez shined. Julian Tavarez was added to the Red Sox rotation in late 2006, and as a starter in 2006, in 6 games, Tavarez went 3-0 with a 4.01 ERA. There was one start where he gave up 3 earned runs in only 3 innings pitched and Iím not sure why he was pulled after 3 innings. If you ignore that start, Tavarez would be 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA. If your 5th starter can have a 3.52 ERA, youíre in really good shape. These stats include one absolute gem of a complete game (yes, Tavarez pitched a complete game in 2006) where Tavarez only gave up 1 earned run. Tavarez has expressed that he really wants to start and he enjoys it much more then pitching out of the pen. People tend to perform well when they are doing something that they actually want to do so in my opinion, this is a good idea. Iím not trying to claim that Tavarez is an all-star starter who is going to be lights out. Iím simply trying to get a point across that people shouldnít be so quick to dismiss the notion of him being an effective starter. Letís give him a chance.
That’s my view on the rotation, but let’s also look at the worst-case scenario: Curt Schilling is old, he starts losing effectiveness by the boatload. Spring Training Josh is a mirage and he puts up another five spot. Matsuzaka simply can’t adjust to the American game and will be run out of Boston two years later ala Hideki Irabu and Jose Conteras. Tim Wakefield continues to be beset by injuries and ineffectiveness, and whispers emanate out of Boston that the Red Sox will not pick up his option. Julian Tavarez is so upset when Jason Giambi hits a home run off him that he brings a machine gun to the mound next time and mows down the Yankees… literally! (Jokes on this past one, folks.) In all seriousness, I know Yankee fans are waiting to hear my prognosis of why this rotation is better than the Yankees. I’m sorry. I just think it is. We’re younger, we have a FAR higher ceiling, we have immediate depth who (key words here) are ready to step in. And they all have Red Sox uniforms, that doesn’t hurt.
But make no mistake. Any attempted comparisons to the 2006 Red Sox pitching staff is flat out comical.
RP: Mike Timlin (2006 stats: 4.36, 1.47, 64.0) | Joel Pineiro (2006 stats: 6.36, 1.65, 165.2) | J.C Romero (2006 stats: 6.70, 1.76, 48.1) | Hideki Okajima (2006 stats: 2.14, 54.2 for Japan) | Brendan Donnelly (2006 stats: 3.94, 1.34, 64.0) | Kyle Snyder (2006 stats: 6.56, 1.77, 60.1) | Javier Lopez (2006 stats: 2.70, 1.38, 16.2 IP)
The bullpen now looks pretty solid with an elite closer at the end of it. Javier Lopez is only around for a couple days until Mike Timlin returns from injury. Lopez is out of options, so it will be interesting to see if he gets claimed off waivers. J.C. Romero is our incumbent lefty specialist, with the other lefty, Hideki Okajima, looking good in the pen and looking good to contribute a strong season. While he’ll probably average out to an average reliever, all reports are that his “funky” delivery and lack of knowledge of him should contribute to a strong season from him. Donnelly is our middle relief option, who has posted several excellent seasons for the Angels, but looks to be at the tail end of his career. Even so, he’s a solid reliever, which we need. Mike Timlin also just won’t stop gutting innings out for us, although he hit a wall last year. He will need to be carefully managed this year, and I have to wonder if this is his final year. Joel Pineiro has looked great his last several outings and has scouts from other teams intrigued. He could either flame out, post a respectable line (the most likely outcome) or surprise us all by becoming a solid setup man for us. Kyle Snyder will be the swingman in the role, but he won’t be able to afford a 6.56 ERA like he was able to last year. We have the depth in Manny Delcarmen and company. Snyder will have to post an ERA in the 4’s to get anything accomplished. What I like most about this bullpen is that it’s largely devoid of large-salaried relievers who, if they stink, you hang onto them until you absolutely can’t anymore (Rudy Seanez). Joel Pineiro may be making a lot of money, but if he’s terrible, there will be a quicker hook on him than there was on Seanez.
CL: Jonathan Papelbon (2006 stats: 0.92, 0.78, 68.1 35 SV)
Papelbon had a season for the ages last year. Can he keep it up? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be elite. If he has another crazy season, he’s anchored among the elite closers of the game. His workload, his shoulder will be closely monitored. Papelbon coming out to close the game out will give the Red Sox and its fans a lot of confidence, a tangential feeling that can’t be reproduced with a lousy closer. More games are won on confidence in the ninth than not.
MGR: Terry Francona
Francona has been at the helm of the Red Sox since 2004, which means this is his fourth season. He’s still behind Jimy Williams by a year and eight months, but it’s nice to me to see some stability at the top. Jimy Williams was really my “first” manager. I certainly was around for Kevin Kennedy and many other managers before that, but I didn’t become a flat out gigantic fan of the Red Sox until 1996 (meaning I technically have yet to witness a division title), and Jimy ascended to the throne in 1996 (which is why Jimy will always hold a soft place in my heart). We went from Jimy to Joe Kerrigan to Grady Little to Terry Francona in the span of four years, so I’m a bit wiped out by all the manager hunting. Francona is due to last through 2008, at which point he becomes a free agent again. Here’s hoping we extend him because Tito is a flat out good guy who can keep the clubhouse humming and actually displays solid baseball acumen.
I have to say it again: He’s such a good guy. And he’s hilarious, from his Johnny Damon naked quote to seeing Kevin Youkilis in the shower “He’s not the Greek God of anything” (paraphrased) to making fun of Kevin Millar’s fielding prowess to winning the Mayor’s Cup this past spring training, the first time since 2004 (hmm…).
Eric Hinske caught the ball for the final out, but the ball’s location was unknown in the moments after the win.
“[Doug ] Mientkiewicz probably has it,” said Francona.
GM: Theo Epstein
I’m not sure what to think of Theo. He started off white hot in 2003 and 2004, but he seems to have strayed from the path in 2005 and 2006 … learning on the job, I suppose. I know people pine for his under the radar acquisitions of 2003 and 2004, but he didn’t exactly sign any big-dollar free agents in 2005 and 2006, either. He’s whiffed on some trades, he’s won on some trades, and more often than not (as is true with any GM) he’s broke even on trades. After 2003 and 2004, we were crowing “In Theo We Trust” … now? Now, he’s just a pretty good GM. Not great, pretty good. Let’s see what he does in 2007.
Fire Brandís Favorite Move: Not being afraid to take a lot of P.R. flack for not going after Bobby Abreu due to money concerns and going and getting Lugo, Drew and Matsuzaka to better the team.
Fire Brandís Least Favorite Move: Craig Breslow not getting the shot over Javier Lopez. This is kind of a cop out because this is a pretty tiny move, but I like Breslow a lot and I was behind every move the team made this year, and I still am.
Fire Brandís Division Projection: They’re the most complete team in the AL on paper right now. If we’re going to be making projections this early without games having being played, I pick the most complete team. First in the division.
Results of the poll:
What are you expecting this year?
* 100+ wins
11% of all votes
* 90+ wins
48% of all votes
* 80+ wins
13% of all votes
* World Series, baby!
28% of all votes
Optimism abound! New poll on the right.
NOTE: Starting on Monday, you’ll now be seeing game threads and articles every day, even on the weekends! See you on Monday, and go Sox!