So how much is he really going to help the Yankees? Roger is expected to take 4-6 weeks to get ready. If he takes exactly 4 weeks from the day his signing was announced, he would start his first game at Fenway Park on June 3rd. Clemens didn’t start pitching in 2006 until June 22nd, so to get an idea of how many starts you could expect from him, I averaged the amount of starts he made from June on in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Again, this is a best case scenario, but under such circumstances you can expect him to make approximately 22 starts. You also have to factor in the drop-off in innings pitched per start.
In 2006, while only having to make 19 starts, Clemens’ innings per start dropped down below 6. It had been well over 6.1 for the previous two years. Some have made the argument that the need for pinch hitters in the National League may have caused his innings pitcher per start to go down. If you look at the numbers however, that doesn’t appear to be the case. In 2002 and 2003, before going to the National League, Clemens averaged 6.31 innings per start between the two seasons. In the two years after he went to Houston, that number jumped up to 6.54. Not only does Clemens get to face a pitcher in the National League, but the hitters aren’t nearly as patient. If anyone doubts that pitching in Houston is significantly easier than pitching in New York, don’t fool yourself. Here are Clemens’ numbers before and after his transition to the National League.
2002, 2003 (NYY) – 8.60, 8.46 H/9 IP
2004, 2005 (HOU) – 7.10, 6.43 H/9 IP
2002, 2003 (NYY) – 1.31, 1.21 WHIP
2004, 2005 (HOU) – 1.16, 1.01 WHIP
2002, 2003 (NYY) – 0.90, 1.02 HR/9 IP
2004, 2005 (HOU) – 0.63, 0.47 HR/9 IP
Assuming Clemens stays healthy (which isn’t exactly easy in itself considering he’ll be turning 45 this August) the Yankees should expect about what they got from Mike Mussina last year down the stretch. From June on, Mussina made 20 starts going 8-6 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while making 5.79 innings per start. And other than the innings pitched per start, those numbers are eerily similar to the ones Clemens put up in his last two years with the Yankees. If you combine his 2002 and 2003 numbers, you get an ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.26. Is that good enough to help the Yankees? Certainly.
Clemens is sure to be an upgrade over the other bottom of the rotation options that the Yankees have. Both the $46 million Cashman spent on Kei Igawa and the $39.95 million he spent on Carl Pavano have been complete busts so far. And if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs in 2007, the $25.86 million (approximately $18.5 million in prorated salary and $7.36 million in luxury tax) Roger Clemens will cost the Yankees, can be added to the long list of expensive pitching mistakes that Cashman has made over the past few years.
For baseball fans who haven’t watched the Red Sox on a regular basis this season, it may be hard to understand why they care so little about not signing Roger Clemens. For some fans it may appear to be nothing more than sour grapes. There are fans out there who are legitimately hurt or worried by the signing. But when Curt Schilling said, “so what” in response to the signing, he wasn’t kidding. Roger Clemens is only one starter and he’ll be pitching less than two thirds of the season. Even if Roger outperforms expectations, he still can’t affect the performance of the rest of the Yankees rotation.
The Yankees 3 best pitchers, Wang, Pettitte and Mussina have been good this season. Going into Tuesday’s game, they have a collective ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.35. Even so, the Red Sox best 3 pitchers, Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield, have been even better. They have a collective ERA of 2.74. As further evidence of why Roger Clemens isn’t a necessity to the Red Sox, the Red Sox entire staff, 1-5 has outperformed the Yankees best 3 starters to this point. The entire Red Sox rotation going into Tuesday’s game has an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.22 even with Matsuzaka struggling and Tavarez starting.
The Red Sox rotation isn’t the only part of their staff that has allowed them to win more games than the Yankees. Their bullpen has also been much more effective to this point. Going into Tuesday’s game, they have a major league leading ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.13. Would it be nice to have Roger Clemens? Of course. Is it necessary? No. Is it worth more than $25 million? Definitely not. At first when I saw Clemens making the announcement at Yankee Stadium, I was minorly frustrated. When I was raised a little Red Sox fan with the old Boston hats with green under the brim, I was taught to respect Roger Clemens as if he were a folk hero. Aside from the Hall of Fame caliber history he had with the Red Sox, he had a personal history with many of their fans. But to any fan who’s honestly hurt by the signing, whether they pull for the Sox or the ‘Stros – who were you kidding? This has long been the free agent era and that probably won’t ever change. Baseball is a business. Playing it is these players’ professions. There are very few exceptions.
One could go on and on about how this signing is bad for the game. Here comes the “Evil Empire” swooping in and dropping awe inspiring bundles of cash on another mercenary to cover up the mistakes they made in another offseason. Let’s be honest though. The excitement of Roger Clemens going back to New York is great for the city and the rivalry. I can’t wait to see Manny Ramirez step into the box against Roger Clemens. That’s a clash of Hall of Fame personalities if I ever saw one. Regardless of whether the Yankees signed Clemens or not, they’d probably find a way to at least be competitive this year. I know the same division winner for 9 straight years can be a bit boring, but would it be any less boring to see the Red Sox win the division by 10 games?
Roger Clemens returning to the Yankees will add an excitement to the rivalry that it’s lacked for a long time. I mean, in 2005 the two teams finished with the same exact record and both got bounced out of the playoffs in the first round. Calling last year a competition between the two teams would be putting it rather nicely. If you aren’t looking forward to seeing Clemens take the mound against the Red Sox in those imperious pinstripes, you might want to get your head checked… just a suggestion. This isn’t good baseball, it’s some of the best baseball we may ever see in our lifetimes. And with that, I’ll sign off with a humorous, recently composed song which was featured by the Boston Globe yesterday. We’re on the cutting edge of music here at Fire Brand.
Back in 84, number 21 soared (but now he
