Letting Orlando Cabrera go was Theo Epstein’s biggest mistake of his short career as a general manager, and we’re feeling the effects of this to this day.
Let’s backtrack a little bit. On July 31st, 2004, the Red Sox traded away their icon, Nomar Garciaparra. They also traded away outfielder Matt Murton, who is struggling to this day to be accepted by the Cubs. In return, the Red Sox got Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz.
We knew coming in that Orlando Cabrera was a pretty good fielder, and could handle the stick decently.
We had no idea that the team and the fans would fall in love with him. He immediately energized the team, lived up to his defensive billing, and hit .294/.320/.465 for the Red Sox. Orlando Cabrera was a very, very large reason why the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004. He had a personal handshake for everyone, played with a smile on his face, and while he was no Big Papi, the way he carried himself at the plate inspired confidence that Cabrera would do well. He was like a little kid after winning the World Series, and it was a love affair with our shortstop all over again.
We are still trying to recapture that love affair.
In the off-season, it looked as if the Red Sox had no interest in resigning Orlando Cabrera. I said in the article just linked that “he provides smooth defense, solid offense, and his attitude is infectious. I have become a big fan of his and will follow him wherever he goes. I hope thatǃÙs Boston.”
Unfortunately (and definitely warranted at the time), we all know what happened. Orlando Cabrera signed a four-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels, and the Red Sox signed shortstop Edgar Renteria to a four-year contract. Cabrera had historically not been great with the bat, and Renteria was a clear upgrade.
This was the beginning of the end.
The Red Sox should have resigned Orlando Cabrera. Here’s why.
While we signed the best shortstop on the market at the time, Edgar Renteria proved a colossal bust at Fenway. Renteria has gone on record saying that the playing field at Fenway Park was terrible and the adjustment to the American League was so daunting that it would have taken him two years to regain his stroke. After trying to defend him for much of 2005, I sit here glad he’s gone… but he never should have been here in the first place.
Orlando Cabrera also had a lousy season in 2005, hitting .257/.309/.365, but he ranked among the top fielders at his position in 2005. His Wins Above Replacement Player in 2005 was 4.4. Renteria’s was 2.9. That means that we could have had roughly 1.4 more wins with OC in our lineup over Renteria.
We tied for the division in 2005. We ended up with the wild card and got swept by the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees went and lost to the … Anaheim Angels. Orlando Cabrera’s team. We could have been playing the Angels, and we could have potentially defeated them. (Another byproduct of this: Edgar Renteria could have very well ended up on the Angels, or David Eckstein could have remained; thus depriving the St. Louis Cardinals of their leader of the 2006 World Series.)
After that year, the Red Sox dumped Edgar Renteria. Theo brought in a slick fielding shortstop named Alex Gonzalez for one year and traded Edgar Renteria to the Atlanta Braves for Andy Marte, a highly touted infield prospect.
It was at this time that something else happened.
Johnny Damon defected to the Yankees.
I can’t remember what Red Sox book talked about this (I’ve read many), but one thing the Red Sox have done well in the years since Theo has been general manager is their ability to take one step back, take a deep breath, and “act, not react.”
This was not one of those times. Panic ensued. Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach, Guillermo Mota and cash were sent to the Cleveland Indians for Coco Crisp, Josh Bard and David Riske.
Coco Crisp had an off-year in 2006, Josh Bard was part of another panic trade sending away reliever Cla Meredith and bringing back Doug Mirabelli, and David Riske turned into Javier Lopez (a bright spot, I suppose).
Last year, Orlando Cabrera hit .282/.335/.404 with a WARP of 5.9 (but he coughed on defense and suffered through an “average” year). Gonzalez was at a 2.4 WARP. Two straight years of below average WARPs bested by Cabrera.
This year, Coco Crisp has been an unmitigated disaster at the plate, although he has provided fantastic defense.
After Alex Gonzalez departed to ink a three-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds, Theo had to find yet another shortstop, having traded (okay, so he wasn’t general manager at the time of the trade, but he was giving heavy input) Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and two minor league relievers for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.
That player was Julio Lugo, recently demoted to the nine spot and looking very much like he will be in a different uniform next year. Orlando Cabrera is hitting .339/.380/.451 (through June 13, and all other 2007 statistics are through that date as well) … and as always, is providing fantastic defense and an infectious attitude. (Although, to be fair to Lugo, he is doing very well on the defensive spectrum and all peripherals point to Lugo doing better with the bat eventually.)
For some reason, Theo’s decisions with shortstops have been awful. Every high-profile signing has been a basic disaster, while the under the radar ones have been gems. Why? Maybe because he’s falling into the same trap as most everyone falls in with high-profile players: they look at the name and cherry pick the gaudy numbers. With the low-profile signings, he more judiciously looks at the statistics, the trends, the opinions, and makes an informed decision. Regardless, Theo is just doing a bad job, and it all points back at the decision to remove Orlando Cabrera. Since then, we’ve had shortstops with 2.4 WARPs, and we’ll be lucky if Lugo matches that WARP.
Getting rid of Orlando Cabrera, then, created the following:
The acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and the trading of Cla Meredith.
Good lord. The four biggest, most glaring mistakes, of the post-2004 years … all because of the decision to let Orlando Cabrera walk. (And those subpar offensive years in 2005 and 2006 by Cabrera don’t even factor in how much he would have benefited from the Green Monster.)
What should the Red Sox have done? Sure, hindsight is a fantastic thing to have, but we should have resigned Orlando Cabrera, and then inked centerfielder Kenny Lofton to a two-year contract (okay, one year, but he would have resigned for 2007).
Why Kenny Lofton?
Well, instead of scrambling to find the answer to Johnny Damon, we should have just backed off and acted, not reacted. The Red Sox felt it was imperative to find the next face of the Red Sox. Someone to replace Damon’s marketing power and offensive prowess. Even better, they thought, was to find someone who could do it for the next ten years! So instead of focusing on what mattered: getting the best option, they got Coco Crisp.
The acquisition of Coco Crisp wasn’t exactly ill-received around these parts when it happened. The previous two years in Cleveland had been solid, and most people thought he would succeed. However, he hasn’t. And it was Theo’s job to see that he wouldn’t succeed.
Without signing Renteria, we wouldn’t have had a high-level prospect to send Cleveland (unless, and this thought horrifies me, the Red Sox dangled Jonathan Papelbon or Jon Lester instead) for Coco Crisp. Meanwhile, while we’ve suffered through the Coco years, Lofton has continued being … well, Kenny Lofton. Cheap. Still producing. Why isn’t this guy in more demand? His age? I don’t care how old he is. I care what he does at the plate.
In 469 AB for the Dodgers last year, Lofton hit .301/.360/.403 with 32 stolen bases and five caught stealing. For the decrepit Texas Rangers this year, he’s hitting 271/.357/.382 so far (16/3 SB/CS rate). Talk about a pretty good leadoff hitter or an excellent #9 … and someone who vastly outproduces Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo.
And instead of having Joel Pineiro or Mike Timlin in the bullpen, we have Cla Meredith, who … well, he’s dominated. For the Padres. Not the Red Sox.
In addition, not having Josh Bard maybe means Kelly Shoppach is still on this team. Sure, he could have been part of the panic trade instead of Bard, but who’s to say he wouldn’t have handled Wakefield (which led to the panic trade)? Shoppach is a gifted defender who is hitting .386/.462/.596 this season in 57 AB (Mirabelli has 57 as well).
Having Kenny Lofton also swings the door wide open next year for Jacoby Ellsbury or any of the high-profile centerfielders entering the market: Ichiro Suzuki, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, or Japanese import Kosuke Fukodome (a rightfielder who could play center, ala J.D. Drew).
Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera would have gone on doing his thing, and would have become a free agent after 2008. Maybe we resign him, maybe we don’t. If we don’t?
Adam Everett, Rafael Furcal, and … Edgar Renteria (remember, in this alternate universe, E-Rent may have been coveted by us based on the years he’s had in 2006 and 2007) would be on the market. If Dustin Pedroia becomes the shortstop, we could ink Ray Durham or Orlando Hudson.
Those are better options than we have now. We have no options now. We have Coco Crisp, who we’ll be forced to trade for pennies on the dollar. We have Julio Lugo, who will be traded for nowhere near Andy Marte’s caliber. We don’t have Cla Meredith. We don’t have Kelly Shoppach.
CF Kenny Lofton
1B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
SS Orlando Cabrera
2B Dustin Pedroia
Tell me that’s not better than what we have right now. Go ahead, I dare you.
Theo’s biggest mistake wasn’t the Bard/Meredith panic trade. Not the Renteria signing, the Crisp trade, or the Lugo signing. It was the move that set all THOSE moves into effect: letting Orlando Cabrera depart as a free agent.
Could Julio Lugo turn this all around and turn into a great shortstop by year’s end? Sure.
But right now, letting Orlando Cabrera go was a colossal mistake. One we are still paying for… literally.
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As a Angels fan, all I can say is thanks! We love OC!
Orlando Cabrera? Eh, i hardly think he is a huge improvement over Lugo. His career OPS+ is 86 but more importantly his career OBP is .312. He has never had a season above .350. Lugo’s career OPS+ is 89 and career OBP of .335. Lugo has a slightly higher RC/27 (4.61 to 4.56). I just see these guys as extemely similar offensively. And even though Lugo has looked bad this year, career wise they are extremely similar in defensive skills and speed.
I understand how everyone hates Lugo right now. He has been nothing short of a disaster. But i find it hard to find someone that has much better stats that we could have got. Most guys it’s 6 of one half a dozen of another. It is pretty much impossible to quantify the impact of playing in Boston on an idividual player.
Remember, Gonzalez had a OPS around .600 for the first 2 monthes of the season, than had a OPS near .900 for June and July, than had an OPS of near .500 the last 2 monthes. People’s stats are going to fluctuate. This start doesn’t mean it’s going to last. If we could manage A-Gon last year, we have to be able to withstand Lugo.
Meredith would have never been what he is in San Diego if he stayed in Boston.
I remember reading somewhere that Meredith said the Sox were making him throw differently then how he was encouraged to throw in San Diego. Without the change he didn’t think he’d be nearly as effective as his is now.
I read that article too, Shane.
It was still a mistake.
Big difference between Cabrera and Lugo — Cabrera came and made things happen. Lugo we are still waiting so see what Lugo can do. There are two types of players — those that can play in the big markets of Boston and New York and those that can’t. Cabrera could and did — Renteria could not. Gonzalez might have but Cabrera delivered and was good for overall attitude of the team.
I know I’m a broken record, but I don’t necessarily think Cabrera was the best solution. The solution, of course, was to not trade a high-yield shortstop for a run-of-the-mill pitcher. Finding a shortstop who can hit is a hell of a lot harder to find than a fungible pitcher, and so the Beckett deal is affecting us more than at face value.
Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, Dustin Pedroia. Would’ve been a great infield. Instead, we have the most worthless player not named Cesar Crespo I’ve ever seen in a Sox uniform.
With Cabrera, Sox win World Series.
With Renteria and Gonzalex, Sox do not win World Series.
With Lugo, Sox are in 1st place.
We will soon see if he is worth it.
To me, the win World Series with Cabrera senario is the most satisfying… probably should’ve kept him.
Sometimes players just click. He loved Boston and Boston loved him. I still miss him.
This was a great read Evan, thanks.
OC is missed…I bet if he was still around, he’d be pushing Manny to actually BE Manny instead of the imposer he is now…
“Yo my people call me Manny, I get paid 20 very large to stand in the batters box and not swing”
Also, I’m against moving Pedroia to SS. If we put him there, we’d be grimacing everytime a ball got hit his way (watch Eckstein try to throw someone out from the hole, its ugly)!
There’s too many intangibles to make a statement like that. If Theo does this, that happens—if Theo does that, this happens—no one knows what coulda, woulda, shoulda happened if the Sox hadn’t dealt Cabrera. You say so yourself that AT THE TIME it was warranted—well, that’s how the business world works right?
Having said that, I suppose you’ve outlined a scenario that has some truth to it.
And yes, the lineup you concurred is better
But seriously, any lineup without Lugo and Crisp would be better right?
Good article, Evan, as always. I wanted Theo to re-sign OC after 2004, and I know it was a regrettable decision right now letting him walk to LA, but I didn’t realize the domino effect. Wow….
Thanks for the kudos, guys. Man, if we resigned OC, we’d be living in a very different Sox world…
[...] • The EPL schedule is out. [Being Sven] • An interview with Amanda Beard. [This Suit Is Not Black] • The Red Sox miss Orlando Cabrera. [Fire Brand Of The American League] • Some steroid troubles in the MMA world. [Stiff Drinks] • Nick Saban, not making friends. [SI.com] [...]
This guy wrote the exact same article 2 days ago:
http://smittblog.blogspot.com/2007/06/not-re-signing-orlando-cabrera-may-go.html
you two should date.
Wow! Darn. And this article had been ready to publish for a week – I was just waiting for today. Oh well, he beat me to it, huh?
I don’t think all of that happened because the red sox didn’t sign a mediocre shortstop. All these things happened because Renteria couldn’t hack it in Boston and Crisp got hurt.
Don’t get me wrong. I loved O.C., but I’m still not seeing the connection between the Cabrera non-resigning and Damon’s defection. Did Johnny and Orlando have some special bond that I wasn’t aware of? Or are you saying that Cabrera’s departure was somehow responsible for Theo’s “acting and not reacting” with the Coco signing. I just don’t think so.
Granted, Theo’s done a questionable job with the big league club in recent years (but he gets a solid B+ for the farm system). For some reason, he develops odd fascinations with players who just aren’t that good (how many times have the Sox been rumored to be on the verge of signing Aubrey Huff). The same goes for Lugo (his name had been tossed around several times before we signed him during the offseason -even after his stellar second half last year). While I acknowledge the importance of statistics, I think Theo gets too caught up in stats sometimes. If one were to look at J. D. Drew’s career slugging percentage and OPS, that would place him among the top 10 players in the league during that time period (I’m not 100% positive about my stats here). But the man has never made an All Star Team. Never voted in by the fans. Never voted in by the players. Never handpicked by the acting manager. That says a hell of a lot more about a player than his WARP.
Just read your article on Orlando Cabrera.
I have been saying this since they won the World Series and there was immediate talk that they were not going to sign Cabrera! He was soooooooo key to their win – the focus on defense that we did not have with Nomar and got with Orlando and Doug M. – and what an awesome addition to your team – he got MANY key hits that year that went unnoticed. He became my favorite player – which I really haven’t had since Jim Ed left in the late 80s – and I have never bought a baseball jersey, but searched for one for him. Unfortunately they never made them available at the end of the season – and then he was gone – Orlando even gave Bush a Cabrera soccer jersey when Bush visited his native Colombia not a baseball jersey! But I was lucky enough to be in Boston when Orlando played his first game back at Fenway in 2005 – and joined in the standing ovation he received.
And the real reason I think they should have kept Cabrera – is that he basically said that Renteria was the better player! I mean, how awesome is that! Then later in March 2005 the Los Angeles Times had this:
Re-signing with the Red Sox was Cabrera’s first choice this winter, “but they felt they would be better with Renteria, so what could I do?” Cabrera said. “He’s been the best shortstop in the National League for four years. He won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove in the same year twice [2002 and 2003]. He’s one of the greatest shortstops ever. He’s a Hall of Famer.”
I too will love Orlando no matter where he goes – and maybe one day they’ll bring him back!
Matt
Please tell me you are not saying All-Star games are in any way a judge of talent. Some AWFUL players have been on the All-Star team. Remember 2005 when Matt Clement ALMOST STARTED IT. Come on man, Drew is one of the best hitters of the past 6 years. I know this season has been frustrating but he how many guys get on base 39% of the time over there career. If you really think he is anything less than a great hitter (give him time for this season) because he hasn’t made the All-Star team than you are just ignorant. WARP-3 is maybe the best stat out there to judge a players performance.
I’m sure it’s a fantastic statistic, and I never said the guy couldn’t hit. But that’s exactly my point. Matt Clement ALMOST STARTED an All Star game. Some AWFUL players continually make the All Star Game every year. And J. D. couldn’t find his way onto one of those teams? I understand that the outfield isn’t the easiest route to become an All Star, but give me a break. Part of the voting process is a popularity contest skewed by the rabidity of various fan bases. The rest is about respect. If your colleagues don’t acknowledge your efforts, then something has to be amiss. That’s all I’m saying. He’s an injury-plagued (although the ways he goes about preventing injuries are certifiably batshit crazy) likeable guy with great stats who got offered a shitload of money, and now he’s in a bit over his head. If he finally gets around to using that big wall in left field to his advantage, maybe he’ll be able to come up for air.
“Or are you saying that Cabrera
evan you are a fraud, way to plagarize a blog! get your own stuff meat
I have witnesses who I told in person what the article was going to be a couple of days ago, and I made references to it in comments last week, thank you though.
Matt
You seem to be the type of guy that would argue Bert Blyleven shouldn’t be in the HOF.
You strike me as the kind of person that talks about how great a defensive player Alex Gonzalez was.
You strike me as the kind of guy that sits around missing Nixon because of the grit he use to show.
You strike me as the kind of guy that talks about Gold Gloves as a true measure of defensive talent.
Like i don’t get your point here. Are you saying he hasn’t deserved to be on the All-Star team? If you look at his 2004 stats you will see that he ranked in the top 10 in almost all important offensive stats. Also, he came in 6th place in the MVP ballots. Did people not respect him than. That right there is worth making the All-Star team 5 years in a row. The All-Star game means NOTHING in deciding whether you are a good player. Lets look at some All-Stars from last year;
Jose Lopez
Mark Loretta
Gary Matthews
David Eckstein
Chris Capuano
Bronson Arroyo
Freddy Sanchez
Derrick Turnbow
Are these guys better than Drew in any way? No, its really not even close. People don’t like Drew and for good reason. He has talent coming out of his ears but just doesn’t apply himself with the “grit” people like to see. For that reason he probably will never get voted to the All-star Game. Ted Williams wasn’t liked, does that take away from him?
Honestly, are you suggesting that you would rather a guy that puts up average stats but is likable and players vote him to the ALL-Star game over a hitting machine thats, well, not liked? I’m so confused right now.
[...] [photos] June 16, 2007 Sports News with Bikinis!
you just never know whats going to happen with these players. I purely believe thats its the coaches that make the difference in the type of caliber a player is or isnt. Look at what Scoscia has done with players he has brought up through the farm systems with the Angels.Mediocre at best and then they just feel comfortable with his attitude and adjustments he impliments into their belief. The next thing you know you have another World Series ring on your finger. How about that for stats!!!
Trust me, having Lofton wouldn’t necessarily improve things. I used to live in Atlanta, and Lofton played for one year, and that one year the Braves were miserable. He was a complete bust, and apparently quite an a** in the clubhouse.
Orlando, Edgar, Alex, or Julio, all are OK, but the point is that you don’t change an important position like SS every year and expect to build a championship team. Epstein is no genius. He could have had B. Colon for Shea Hillenbrand but instead went for the immortal Boom Boom Kim. Epstein let popular & adequate B. Daubach walk with the great Jeremy Giambi as his replacement. He let Sanchez go for S. Williamson. He let a 14 game winner Arroyo go for Wily Mo and when Pena & Ramirez are in the outfield together, the Sox have the worst fielding outfield in baseball. Epstein even traded 2 minor league pitchers for Mike Stanton to sit on the Sox bench for the final game of the 2005 season and then let Stanton walk.
Adam Stern could have done as well as Crisp for the past year and half.
It was Theo’s job to determine that Coco would fail here? In other words, Theo should have known that Coco wold break his finger.
A bit harsh. And Lofton? Lofton had been on the DL for parts of both 2004 and 2005 (and started 2006 on the DL), he has not played more than 133 games since 200, was 38 years old. and that was supposed to be the answer?
You are right, hindsight is 20/20.
And who knows, maybe not signing actually ended up with some good outcomes.
Once Damon left, they needed a CF. Assuming Theo would not have opted for Lofton, they still needed someone. The kid in Seattle (Adam Jones) was being mentioned prominently. Who knows, what if they had traded Papelbon for him. I know nothing of any such deal but the point is, it is all speculation. Not to mention that without the Crisp deal, the Sox could have had their name drawn into the steroid mess for the first time (assuming that Mota had stayed, although his first half of last year was a true mess).
Maybe the decision to keep O-Cab would have led to other decisions along the line of “hey lets keep all 25>’ We’d have and an ace on the DL, a CF who can’t play CF anymore, and Derek Lowe hanging his head after every big run he gave up.
You just never know.
Re the first two comments, agree with the first – Meredith was not likely to be succesful here. Last we saw him, he was giving up the bomb to Sexson and never recovered. So if we are going to argue that O-cab was going to be a player that could cut it in boston, need to be realistic in assessing everyone.
And now Edgar is popping off on boston, saying how he wants to prove everyone wrong. Wrong about what, I’m not sure. That he sucked for a season? That he is an NL player? If you want to prove us wrong, sign with TB or TOR and put up your NL numbers in the AL East. Still won’t explain how you made 30 errors and blamed the grass and then the very next year Gonzalez comes in and sets a single season sox record for fielding.
I agree we should have kept OC but Gonzo didn’t do a bad job last year he was great on defense and was a good 9 hitter. I also heard they let OC go because of something that happend in the clubhouse but no one will release it. I also think if we kept Edgar he would of had a much better season last year and been great this year sometimes its hard for played to make a switch from the NL to AL and vice versa. And about the Beckett and Lowell for Sanchez and Hanley deal I think besides the Nomar deal thats the best deal Theo has made because Beckett and Lowell are both all-stars this year and deserve it and i don’t know about you but i would much rather a high profile future ace then an unproven prospept. Because as we seen in ‘04 pitching wins games not your shortstop and who knows Lugo could turn out great or we could send him and Pena off somewhere and get a good SS and CF. And i also think Coco Crisp is turning out to be the player we expected i wouldn’t mind keeping him around for the rest of this year if we have him as a 4th OF and got Kenny Lofton or some other CF for the remander of the season.
To Bob S. I hate how people like you say Manny is a bad outfielder he makes some of the best plays out in left field and not just at Fenway he made 2 good plays on the road trip in San Diego and don’t forget when he robbed Miguel Cario of his homerun at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs in 03′ or 04′ I forget but it just pisses me off how people say Manny sucks in the field I no he’s no Tori Hunter or Ichiro or Carl Crawford but he is a pretty good defender.
Two things apparently that weren’t considered here.
1: Lofton would never sign with Boston, as he is one of several players in MLB that have a “Do not trade to Boston” clause in his contract. He is one of several men of color that still play the race card and believe they cannot get fair treatment in Boston. Other rumored players with them were David Justice, Torii Hunter.
2: I too wondered why they didn’t resign OC after the series, apparently there are off-the-field issues that the team was aware of that they didn’t want any part of.
Hope that clears some stuff up.
to the chick above me the Tori Hunter thing is wrong seen as how other then returning to the Twins he wants to come to Boston