Who Should Pitch in October?

September 23, 2007 at 1:52 AM

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Here's a curious case.

There are 16 major league pitchers on the active roster.

I can only select one who should not make the postseason roster: Devern Hansack, who has pitched 7.2 IP on the year so far this year. Those innings came May 8, 19 and September 8.

The remaining 15 have strong cases to make the postseason roster. Unknown is whether or not the pitching roster will be at 11 (deepening the bench with the frequent off-days that will occur and usual reliance on the go-to guys) or 12 (deepening the bullpen). To make things even more difficult, I'm going to assume that we're going with 11. Really, should the 12th pitcher on a pitching staff be pitching in October? I'll designate who I think the swing guy should be, but let me assure you: this will be a hard task.

Quick aside: The magic number to make the playoffs is three. Let's not fool ourselves: we're making it. And let me tell you something else: the Red Sox are better than this. We CAN win the division. It starts tonight.

Okay, let's look at each pitcher's cases. They are in alphabetical order. At the end of each case, I'll designate if they're automatically in, or could be in. Away we go (with all facts supported prior to Saturday's games)...

Josh Beckett: Beckett is our ace. There's no question about it. Beckett is unquestionably a strong contender for the Cy Young Award, and undoubtedly is a deserving candidate. Beckett just won the 20th game of his season and is starting Game 1 of the ALDS, and there is no doubt he has to be on top of his game for us to have any chance to win it all. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Clay Buchholz: The guy with the no-hitter has some crazy stuff, but he hasn't seemed to been used by the staff in a relief role. Wouldn't you think that they would start preparing Buchholz for a relief role after his no-hitter? Word is the Red Sox have finally decided on a role for Clay going forward. The man with a 1.59 ERA in 22.2 IP needs to start coming out of the bullpen. Now. He should make the postseason roster, but it's possible the Sox could opt not to - to preserve him for next year. Lunacy? Would you be surprised if they shut him down? I wouldn't. COULD BE IN.

Bryan Corey: Corey has impressed in the limited time he's pitched for the Sox. He's only pitched 5.2 innings on the year, but they are clean innings that have resulted in no runs, three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. He comes in and he gets the job done. Period. If he keeps this up through the end of the year ... you have to ask ... should he be? COULD BE IN.

Manny Delcarmen: Remember when Tony Gicas said "Bring [Kyle Snyder] on alongside Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarmen - they��re very scary. Give me a big spot with those two and I��ll give you an RBI double to write home about."? Not only have all three of those pitchers consistently pitched well the entire year, Manny Delcarmen, aka The Trampoline here on Fire Brand, is more likely to shut down the opposition than give up a RBI double. Delcarmen is a dark horse during the postseason, I think. He seems to have been used sparingly in the regular season, and I think he could absolutely be depended on in the postseason in late-inning duties. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Eric Gagne: We all know the issues. We also all know that a healthy Gagne can be a devastating force. COULD BE IN. (Only because he's stunk so bad, and if he continues to light it up, the Sox just may do it. But come on. He's in.)

Jon Lester: Lester has been impressive lately, and has a 4-0 record and a 4.45 ERA (ERA similar to Dice-K). He has a 2.70 ERA in 23.1 innings in September, and if Wake continues to struggle and Lester continues to pitch well, he could be our fourth starter. Lester could also get bombed and whiff on the roster. You never know, but I'm thinking Lester will get a couple starts in October. COULD BE IN.

Javier Lopez: Lopez has been solid all year with a 2.97 ERA in 39.1 innings, but I just feel he's never been able to get into a groove with the Red Sox except for one period early in the season where he seemed to always come in and get a double-play grounder on his first pitch. He's been solid all year, but I just have a feeling that his hold on his bullpen spot is a bit tenuous. COULD BE IN.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K is struggling as of late, but turned things around (kind of) his last start in New York. His ERA was under 4.00 entering September 3, but his start on the 3d and 8th were horrific. Dice-K's been getting rest lately and will be tabbed for the second start in the postseason. It's vital that he come through. He can if he's rested, and pushing back his last two starts has definitely given him the benefit of rest ... but he will need to show that he can perform on short rest in the playoffs. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Hideki Okajima: Dead arm or not, he's had a great year for us, and what else can we say? He needs to rest and come back strong in October. Shutting him down is the right thing to do, whether or not his arm really is tired. Rest will really help Okaji, and I have every confidence in him for October. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Jonathan Papelbon: Yankee fans constantly feel the need to remind me that Papelbon is no Mariano Rivera. Duh. He hasn't pitched in the postseason yet and he only has two and a half years under his belt compared to The Mariano's 100. Of course he can't be Mariano Rivera. He hasn't had the chance. But Papelbon's first two years in the league blow away Mariano's first two years. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Curt Schilling: Schilling has really come back strong, which is a great thing to do. He pitched into the 8th against the Yankees, and while he killed the mood that night with a hanging splitter, it's great to know Big Schill can still go into the 8th. He doesn't fire them at 97 anymore, but he gets it done. He should be a great motivator in the playoffs. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Kyle Snyder: He's a nice guy, but I've never really felt that confident in him. He's stuck the entire year and has a 3.88 ERA in 53.1 IP. Last year, he pitched in 58.1 IP for us and had a 6.02 ERA. My, my, how times have changed. Look, he mostly comes in in mopup situations. How valuable is that in the playoffs? It's not. Not to mention that he's only pitched three times in September, and his ERA was at 2.91 on August 7th. COULD BE IN.

Julian Tavarez: Boy,feels like he's fallen off a cliff lately, huh? Not in terms of effectiveness; just haven't seen him in a while. And no surprise. He's pitched twice in September. Twice! 4.97 ERA, 31 games, 22 starts, 130.1 IP. And we've seen him only twice in September? Methinks something's up here. COULD BE IN.

Mike Timlin: Timlin was horrible earlier this year. He faded last year. It was okay to really wonder if he was done or not. He's not. I'm so happy to have Timlin back as a force. He has a 3.66 ERA on the year, and 3.00 since the All-Star Break. He's really added a force to a bullpen that's been struggling lately. He's also a great leader, a fiery one, one who leads the bullpen. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

Tim Wakefield: He's been struggling as of late, but when he has been on this year, boy, he has been ON. He can start and relieve and will do anything the team wants. He gave up a Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS start in order to pitch in mopup in the 19-8 drubbing by the Yankees. Listen. He opted to pitch mopup ... when he could have taken the hill and tried to reverse the fortunes of the Sox. He would have been MVP of the 2003 ALCS had he not thrown one wrong pitch. He is one of the Sox's best postseason warriors. AUTOMATICALLY IN.

So that's eight automatically in: Beckett, The Trampoline, Dice-K, Okaji, Paps, Schill, Old Man Timlin, Timmeh. Those on the bubble: Buchholz, Corey, Gagne, Lester, Lopez, Snyder, Tavarez. Here's who I think makes it.

Gagne's in. Buchholz's in. One spot left. Does it go to Corey, Lester, Lopez, Snyder or Tavarez? As good as Corey has been ... he has no shot. Tavarez, for whatever reason, has fallen off the face of the earth. I really think he won't make it (Can anyone tell me why he's fallen off the face of the earth?). Snyder? We don't need a mopup guy. It's down to Lester or Lopez. Lester or Lopez. Both have issues walking batters, but Lester can start and has been on a real good streak lately. He's my man.

The swing guys in case of injury or switching things up have to be Lopez and Tavarez. Think about it. If we play the Angels, we put Buchholz in and keep Lopez off. If we win and the ALCS is against the Yankees, we want that lefty reliever for their lefty hitters. Put Lopez in and bounce Buchholz or someone else.

I'd rather have a hard decision to make than an easy one. It shows the depth of this club that we can "afford" to leave Lopez, Tavarez or Snyder off the roster.

What do you think?

Oh yeah. 76 percent of us are in ... not out (referring to the poll here). Good. We're in. All the way. New poll on the right.

Categories: Bryan Corey, Clay Buchholz, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Devern Hansack, Eric Gagne, Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, Tim Wakefield

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Discussion

11 Comments on "Who Should Pitch in October?"

Posted by falco, September 23, 2007 2:34 AM

They'll take Lopez AND Lester, and go with 12 pitchers. As this kind of decision has shown, yes, all of the above have earned the playoffs (with the possible exception of Gagne!). That's also assuming Okajima is one of the 12, because if he crashes, lefties will be at a premium the whole way. I'd also like to see Oki pitch once or twice before the playoffs, before I'd give him the shoe-in.. those pesky "dead arms", you know.

Posted by Tito Crafts, September 23, 2007 6:09 AM

Lopez is in, no question. We cannot face the stacked Indians, Angels and Yankees with only one lefty in the bullpen and NO lefty starters (assuming Lester won't have a rotation spot). Lopez is definitely in.

Posted by Frank, September 23, 2007 7:23 AM

i don't want to see Lopez there, he sucks, he is better vs righties than lefties, Snyder also sucks, those guys are trash, they are just going to get crushed in the post-season.

Posted by mark, September 23, 2007 10:00 AM

To complicate matters:

The issue is if they carry 10 or 11 pitchers, not 12. Since you only need 4 starters, playoff teams usually will dump their last bullpen arm or 2. If the Sox make the Series, I wouldn't be surprised to see only 10 pitcher for the games in the NL parks.

Posted by Evan Brunell, September 23, 2007 11:30 AM

I believe in the short 5-game series, they will go with 11 pitchers. The ALCS with 12. The World Series with probably 11 or 12.

Posted by Sox Fan, September 23, 2007 1:07 PM

Gimme Tavarez. I have a lot more faith in him being able to do the job in a key spot than Snyder and Lopez just stinks. He can't get lefties out. What's the acronym for Left-Handed One Double Guy, LODGY? Plus, if you have him on the roster, Tito might use him.

Posted by Greg C, September 23, 2007 3:11 PM

Can we stop pretending that Wakefield is any good at all? He's mediocre, except when he stinks. He shouldn't be on any roster, let alone a playoff roster. (Yes, he "eats up a lot of innings," as his defenders always claim, but, come on, if that's all you want, then Alex Cora can do that...)

Of the teams the Sox might face in the playoffs, he has only faced this year the Yankees and the Angels. He's done far better against the Angels: 1-1 (2 GS), 5.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP. Against the Yankees, he's gone 0-3 (3 GS), 10.93 ERA, 2.57 WHIP. Look it up, he sucks. Add to that his 'talent' for giving up HRs to career underachievers (e.g. Aaron Boone) and you see that he has no place pitching in October.

Three losses in three starts against the Evil Empire. And he didn't last long in those starts: 5.1 IP, 5.0 Ip & 3.2 IP, so don't give me any of that "eats innings" garbage. He chokes in big games.

Then there's the matter of his personal catcher, Doug not-even-hitting-his-weight Mirabelli. I'm not sure why the Sox need a guy who can't hit worth a darn to catch a pitcher everyone can hit. Wouldn't we be better off flushing both of them?

Posted by Joe, September 23, 2007 8:03 PM

Tim Wakefield chokes in big games is easily the stupidest thing I've ever read on any website that wasn't linked to by FJM. The guy has on two separate occassions ('92 and '03) been arguably the LCS MVP until his team blew comfortable leads. This year has been no different than any other year. He can be unhittable or he can be awful and suggesting he's a choker is just ludicrous.

If you want to say he's not deserving a rotation spot that's fine, but a choker? Gimme a break.

Posted by Greg C, September 23, 2007 9:06 PM

I'm not talking about 1992 or 2003. I'm talking about this year. 10.93 against the Yankees is crap. He can't be trusted in a big game. As you say, Joe, "He can be unhittable or he can be awful," but it seems to me that he saves the awful outings for when they do the most damage.

#10

Posted by East Windup Chronicle » Blog Archive » Is That a Panic Button or is That Red Sox Fan Jus, September 24, 2007 3:10 AM

[...] Even if you’re not a Red Sox the Fire Brand of the American League is worth a couple views a week. Recently up is on the site is Who Should Pitch in October? [...]

#11

Posted by A.S., September 24, 2007 3:45 AM

I actually really like this site...so hopefully I don't come off as a complete jackass here. I co-write an Asian baseball site and have a post referring to this one....

http://eastwindupchronicle.com/?p=183

On the more positive side for sox fans check out our speculations for guys coming over from Asia next year. Surely you guys'll be in the running for them.

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