Yeah, I said it: Don't bring back Mike Lowell

November 8, 2007 at 12:01 AM

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Yeah. I did just say it. I'll say it again. Do not bring back Mike Lowell.

Why would we bring back Mike Lowell? Just because he's a nice guy? Because he rode a hot streak to MVP of the World Series?

Yeah, he did hit .320. Yeah, he did lead the team in RBI with 120. Yeah, he's a consummate professional. Guess what? So was Bill Mueller.

You remember Billy Ballgame, right? The guy who won the batting title in 2003 with a line of .326/.398/.540? Hit two grandslams in a game from both sides of the plate?

He hit .283/.365/.446 for the 2004 World Champion Red Sox, and then followed that up with a .295/.369/.430 line in 2005. We let him go. Mike Lowell took his place.

Billy Ballgame played 32 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He hit .252/.357/.402 and his knee issues forced him to retire. The last time he donned a Boston jersey was this October... when he threw out the first pitch before Game 6 of the ALCS.

We let Johnny Damon go. Now the Yankees are trying to trade him.

We let Pedro Martinez go. He throws an 85 mph fastball and the contract is a bust.

We let Derek Lowe go, and while he's still racking up the numbers, he's... not exactly staying off the tabloids.

This front office knows what it's doing. I implore them to continue to stick by their guns.

Look, I love Mike Lowell. I love the fact that since we dumped Shea Hillenbrand, the hot corner has been manned by two men that no one can possibly justify as anything less than professional: Bill Mueller and Mike Lowell.

But just like Mueller's time was past, Mike Lowell's time might very well be past.

It was unthinkable two short years ago that Mike Lowell would hit the free agent market at a certainty to upgrade his current $9 million contract --- an albatross two short years ago. But it happened.

But Mike Lowell --- credit to him for taking full advantage --- didn't come among these numbers with a simple renaissance. Fenway Park gave him those numbers. Fenway Park gave him a .373/.418/.575 line, while hitting .276/.339/.438.

Yeah, he hit better on the road in 2006 --- can't deny that. He hit .260/.327/.436 at home and .310/.352/.514 on the road. No wonder the Red Sox tried to shop him to find no takers. If Mike Lowell was under contract for one more year and the Red Sox shopped him, the suitors would be lining up at the table.

Look, just like 2005 wasn't indicative of Mike Lowell's ability when he was a contract dump doesn't mean 2007 is indicative of his ability. 2005 was the aberration. We know this. His cumulative OPS aside of 2005 is remarkably consistent.

It still doesn't mean it's the right move to sign Mike Lowell.

He'll enter 2008 as a 34-year old. He's coming off a year in which he made his living hitting at Fenway Park.

Sure, if we resign him, he'll continue to take advantage of Fenway Park. Absolutely. No question about it.

But Mike Lowell is on top of the world right now. He can demand --- and get --- a very lucrative contract. He is a World Series MVP. His popularity and reputation currently knows no bounds. The money is going to pour in.

Why should the Red Sox give in?

Why? For goodwill? Because the fans want him back?

We wanted Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez back. Call up Brian Cashman and Omar Minaya in New York and ask them how it's working out so far.

If this ownership signs Mike Lowell to a two-year contract, I'll be the first to tell you that it's a good thing. But a four-year contract, which Lowell can get on the free agent market from either the Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies?

If they do, you can put this down immediately in Theo's "Free Agent Busts" folder.

I don't care if he replicates the numbers he put up in 2007 for the next four years if we sign him. For what Lowell will demand in terms of money, it's not worth it.

I love Mike Lowell. I'm thrilled everyone knows how good he is now. I wouldn't be surprised if he left and put up identical numbers with no home/road distinction, hitting better on the road, or finding his new home to his liking (which would occur at Citizen's Bank Park).

Players who hit out of their minds at Fenway Park and disappoint on the road will always use those inflationary numbers to create more dollars for themselves. There's no shame in it, and I'm not trying to change that. But the fact is, what Mike Lowell put up in 2007 is not going to match what he's going to get in a contract if he hits the market.

He couldn't be traded a year ago at $9 million. Now, four years at $12 million per seems to be the going rate. And we want to resign him?

The only way I would resign him is if it was a very reasonable contract. Not if we overbid for him. Reports have Mike Lowell accepting a hometown discount as long as he gets three years. I'm not even sure this is a good solution. It could be, sure. But what's the discount?

One year didn't reflect the true Mike Lowell in 2005. Why do people seem to think that one year of 2007 reflects the true Mike Lowell?

As much as I would hate to see Mike Lowell in pinstripes, if the Yankees want to overbid for someone who isn't worth it ... then let them have Johnny Damon vol. II.

Chances are they'll be trading him in two years anyways.

Categories: Mike Lowell

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Discussion

62 Comments on "Yeah, I said it: Don't bring back Mike Lowell"

Posted by kevin r, November 8, 2007 12:34 AM

Before the Cabrera thoughts came up, I was all for 2 years of Lowell, and ok with 3 years, but 4 is right out (unless it's a club option, could even creatively vest it if he does well in the 3rd year or something). I still think I'd be ok with 3 years, but if Cabrera is possible without losing too much, it's hard to pass that up. Though if we sign Cabrera to a long term deal, may want to include some of those Schilling-style weight clauses...

Posted by Samara Pearlstein, November 8, 2007 12:37 AM

You're a brave guy, Evan. I'm personally still holding out hope for 2 years of Lowell, but really almost anything that doesn't involve signing ARod will probably work out one way or another.

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 12:43 AM

Sean:

School starts at 12:00 today. The first half is devoted to freshman parent conferences. Tomorrow too! But this doesn't mean I won't wake up at 5:30 like I normally do...

Meanwhile, I'm holed-up at home because it's raining outside, have nothing to do, and there's a sleeping three year-old in the next room who decided to stay up until like 1:30 last night.

I hate my life sometimes.

I might hate it less if Theo could fleece Michael Hill in the Cabrera deal, though. And if I ever get done with these damn college applications.

Alright, I'll stop complaining now...

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 12:47 AM

Hmmm...never realized this:

Lowell expected BABIP last year (LD% + .120): .301

Lowell actual BABIP last year: .342

Might be in for a scary regression. I completely agree with Dave and Evan, all of a sudden...though it may be the 3.5 hours of sleep I got last night.

Echoing Sean: We. Want. Cabrera.

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 1:50 AM

I'd be all for this deal, if we could either make it a two-year hitch, or front-load it. I agree about being hesitant about making it a four-year deal. I wonder if they could compromise and front-load a 3-year, $30 million deal...?

On another note...

...the Astros just traded Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and a minor leaguer with almost no hope of making a big league impact.

Is Bourn honestly that much better than Coco, or could this deal have just as easily been Coco and, say, Craig Hansen, for Lidge? I would've done that...

Speaking of which, this deal makes Ed Wade look like the second coming of Tim Purpura, IMO.

Posted by Sam, November 8, 2007 3:55 AM

Please Mikey! You know you just love Boston and the Monster! Come on back to the Sox for 2 years and 24 mil ... Whaddya say? Mike?

*sigh*

sorry for wasting everyones time with such an unrealistic plea ... I just couldn't help it ... it just looks more and more like he is going to command a 4 year deal and as much as I want the guy back ... its just too risky and Im pretty sure Theo and Co. feel the same way

Posted by jvwalt, November 8, 2007 5:34 AM

I don't want to see Mike Lowell go. I admire his professionalism, and I believe he will do much better than Bill Mueller over the next few years.

Having said that... while Evan overstates the anti-Lowell case, I'm basically in agreement. Two years, great. Three years, I can accept. Four, no way. (And if I were Lowell, looking at this as my last chance for a big contract, I'd be looking for as many years as I can get. If the Sox offer 2/24 and I get an offer of 4/50 elsewhere? Thanks for the memories!)

Lowell did have a fine year... but if you take a closer look, it was not that exceptional. A typical Lowell season is .280/20/80. His home runs were spot-on (doubles were actually down), the BA was certainly high (and yes, Muelleresque). As for RBI, they are situation-dependent, and Lowell had an almost ideal situation: hitting behind a bunch of guys with world-class OBAs: Papi, Manny, Pedroia (and sometimes Drew or Youkilis).

Lowell is almost certain to revert to career norms next year. Is .280/20/80 with excellent defense worth $13 mill? Yeah. But even if he doesn't collapse like Mueller, he's virtually certain to decline by his mid-thirties. So is a hypothetical 2010 Lowell, hitting .260/15/60, worth $13 mill? No. Realistically, those are the kinds of numbers he will produce at the end of a three- or four-year contract.

Posted by Mike P., November 8, 2007 10:07 AM

You seem to be forgetting a few things in your argument. Mueller, Martinez and Damon were allowed to walk by the Sox, because their injury histories led them to believe that they would not fulfill their entire contracts. Lowe was allowed to leave because of all of the personal issues he was having, as well as the fact that before the playoffs, he was having a horrible year, and was lucky that he got his act together when the team needed him the most.

Lowell has no serious injury history, and has been a goos citizen and clubhouse presence. He would definitely merit a 3 year deal, but nothing more than that.

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 11:06 AM

Amen Evan, I was just going to post in whatever the top thread was to not sign Lowell. I really, really don't want him back. We're supposed to have a wunderkind GM and a genius front office, why can't we find a better offer?

If the price for Miguel Cabrera is as low as it seems, meaning we might be able to keep Buchholz, he's our #1. No way any offer involving Melky Cabrera, who sucks, should beat one of our offers.

#10

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 11:26 AM

OMG, did Sean just call Theo a wunderkind?

We can definitely out-bid the Yankees for Miguel Cabrera, especially if they aren't willing to part with Joba, Hughes, or Kennedy. The question is, how much would we have to give up, and can we live with Coco's offensive woes if it lands us Cabrera?

On a related note...we're talking about Cabrera as a 1B, with Youk moving to third, right?

#11

Posted by David Hannes, November 8, 2007 11:35 AM

Yeah, a 4-year deal is nuts. I wonder if Theo can get away with a 2-year deal, with a player option for a third and, if exercised, a club option for a fourth. A $10M/$10M/$11M/$9M might be palatable to both sides.

#12

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 11:38 AM

1). Note the word "supposed" there DR.

2). Cabrera is being shopped as a first baseman. This isn't as big of a problem with us since Youk can take over 3rd with only a slight transition.

3). I'd take Crisp's 8.3 WARP if it means we get Miguel Cabrera. This would mean there's an 80-90% chance that our 3, 4 and 5 hitters mash 30-35 homers each, Drew hits 20, and everyone else can field well.

We. Want. Cabrera.

#13

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 11:40 AM

Also, it's like 7:30 there Daniel, what the hell are you doing up and on the internet? Go to school, slacker.

#14

Posted by Shane, November 8, 2007 11:44 AM

I'm not going to say I don't want Miguel Cabrera, but when the hell are the Marlins going to try and field a team? I don't see how they'll ever get a new stadium if they don't spend any money and start keeping their good players. Of course if they move, Charlotte NC was one of the cities courting them... And it would be nice to not drive 5 hours to see a baseball game...

#15

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 11:48 AM

Shane-

There is good reason to think that the Marlins are looking for a particular type of player, one that Hanley fits to a T. He's young, he's exciting, he's fast, and he's cost-controlled. Who else fits that example on the Sox? Hint: initials J and E.

Cabrera is a great hitter, but there's reason to believe his expanding waistline is not what the Marlins are looking for. They know they can't compete immediately, but getting someone like Ellsbury who is exciting and a near sure-thing will help them tons. It'd be a sure-fire ROTY for the Marlins next year, and Bowden or Masterson would be a nice trade chip or in-house product.

All imho, of course.

#16

Posted by Dave B., November 8, 2007 11:50 AM

Well said Evan. Lowell is not what we saw in 2007. He will regress to his mean and we would regret any deal that goes longer than 2 years. I'm completely against 3 years at this point.

#17

Posted by Steven Roth, November 8, 2007 1:25 PM

Hmm, I'd still take Lowell over Cabrera. Rumors are that he's been having too many donuts, and no, not the ones on the on-deck circle.

Do we really need another Manny on the team? If we stash Cabrera at third, we're looking at a pudgy vulnerable left side of the field.

On the other hand, I hardly know what I'm talking about here. I find myself more concerned about getting rid of Coco than resigning Lowell!

Evan, I believe your photo credit should state: - Steven Roth (MVN). =)

#18

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 1:31 PM

correction: a pudgy, vulnerable, 50 home run hitting first baseman steven. Biiig difference. And, of course, that's as far left in the defensive spectrum as you can get.

Plus, me thinks the weight clause could go for him as well.

#19

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 1:35 PM

I think Schilling's weight clause should depend, if we acquire Cabrera, at least partially on Cabrera's weight. Give Schill some incentive to convince Cabrera to slim down...

#20

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 1:44 PM

DR-

Best suggestion I've heard in weeks. Peer pressure for make benefit Boston Red Sox.

#21

Posted by Steven Roth, November 8, 2007 1:47 PM

Isn't Cabrera a opposite-field threat? If so, then the Monster isn't really going to help him go deep.

WHY do we need to move Youk? He's a gold glover, leave him be at first base. This will be his third FULL season in the Majors and I think he's figured out how to stay consistent all season. If we move him to third we're saying "here's your gold glove, you still suck, **** off and go to third."

Show Youk some respect. Get someone to play third and if that's not Mikey or Donut-Boy, then find someone else.

#22

Posted by Steven Roth, November 8, 2007 1:51 PM

Crazy thought.

Package Coco, money, and a solid group of prospects to Atlanta and get Chipper Jones in return. He's a classy guy and we could give him a shot at getting that elusive WS ring before he retires.

#23

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 1:55 PM

So, help me out here, you don't want a 24 year old who consistently hits 30 homers in an extreme pitcher's park because of *respect* for Youkilis?

???

In 2007, Cabrera hit 2 home runs to right field at home, everything else was to left. 2006, 3. In 2006, he has 1 true RF double, and 3 in deep right center. 2007, nearly the same, everything else is peppering the teal monster.

Cabrera would destroy the monster. He, Manny and Papi (at least for 2008) would be so fearsome opposing pitchers would wet themselves in fear. The Angels are talking about getting A-rod to have a big 2 to match the Sox, but nobody, nobody has a big 3 in baseball. It'd be like the 1996 Mariners, with A-rod, Edgar Martinez and Junior.

PICK UP THE PHONE THEO. Give up everyone but Buchholz.

#24

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 1:56 PM

Sean:

Did you just invoke Borat to make a point?

KNBR in SF:

"The Yankees appear to have fallen out of the running -- at least temporarily -- for Miguel Cabrera, leaving the Red Sox and Dodgers as the likely favorites. An industry source present at the meetings said he believes there's at least a 90 percent chance that Cabrera will be dealt before 2008, with a growing sentiment in the Marlins front office that they simply cannot afford him driving the talks."

"..." are used liberally -- it's probably not exact, but I think I got most of it down. I still think he's going to LA, but I'd love to see him in Boston.

BTW, Steven:

I don't think Youk would think of it as an "eff you" at all.

#25

Posted by JB_UK, November 8, 2007 1:57 PM

Ok, if the Sox re-sign Lowell to a 3 year deal and in the 2nd or 3rd year he starts to decline in terms of batting and fielding, why not switch him to 1st and Youks to 3rd? Assuming Youkilis is still around.

Better idea: why not trade Coco and Hansen for Teixeira? Teixeira is arbitration eligible and reportedly will cost approx. $12m for one year. Rather pricey for the recently cost-conscious Braves. Then move Youkilis to 3rd and problem solved, right?

#26

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 2:01 PM

Teix would cost way more than that, JB. If they gave up Salty for him, they want him for the long haul. Plus, they're getting Andruw off the books now, so that's some more money.

I think they want Teix to replace Chipper as The Guy for years to come.

#27

Posted by jvwalt, November 8, 2007 2:02 PM

Daniel (comment #16): That BABIP figure certainly helps explain Lowell's jump in batting average... which amounts to about one extra single per week over the course of the season. Yeah, the BABIP is one more piece of evidence that Lowell won't be able to sustain a .300-plus batting average.

Which doesn't mean he's a bad ballplayer. He is, in short, a great defender with a decent batting average and moderate power. Really, a nice #6 hitter. He's just not an MVP type. And he's not a $50-million player, even if he can get it on the open market.

As for Youk... I doubt that he would feel slighted if he were moved back to 3B. He started out there, and he clearly still has the defensive chops. If he has any brains at all (or his agent does), he'd realize that a move to 3B would significantly increase his longevity and earning potential. I've said this before, but as a first baseman, his bat is only slightly better than average. In terms of offensive output, he's a John Kruk or Mark Grace type, except with a lower BA. And those types tend to have short careers at 1B, a position where power is a prerequisite. If Youk stays at 1B, he's likely to be done as a regular (or shipped to a needy franchise) within a few years.

#28

Posted by Shane, November 8, 2007 2:05 PM

There is no way Chipper Jones is leaving the Braves. The man has taken pay cuts to end his career there.

#29

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 2:07 PM

Shane-

I meant that Chipper is getting pretty old, and Teix will be the identifiable Brave for the next decade. I definitely don't think they're shipping off Larry any time soon, until he simply can't play anymore. And with the injury history, that could be soon.

(get cabrera)

#30

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 2:43 PM

Very good piece Evan. Glad to see many of us are on the same page, now.

I think we all respect Lowell and are grateful for what he has done for the team, but he simply the worst alternative we have right now. He is going to regress almost surely any time now, and, as I said before, we have a very good team right now thanks to the fact our office is not sentimental. Someone said Theo has no heart, and I'm glad for that. If he beggin to manage the team acording to the wishes of the fans, then we are screwed.

The correct way to manage a baseball team is going for the best option. And the best option is, in my opinion, Cabrera. I hope our office can get him without losing Buchholz. And If we can do it, we have to go for it. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

I think we have no reasons to think Cabrera will not be a perfectly capable (average) first baseman. And don't forget Lowell has shown signs of decline in his defense too.

Besides, I think the weight clause is perfectly realistic, given the precedent of the Schilling contract. If we show Cabrera the money, he will accept it.

#31

Posted by jeremy, November 8, 2007 2:56 PM

So, you implore the front office to stick to their guns.

But their guns are tracking a new contract with Mike Lowell. Maybe you didn't notice their positive words and continuing statements about working on that contract.

You're not trusting the front office to make the right decision, you're assuming that you know best.

#32

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 2:58 PM

As I said in another thread, Cabrera is the best long-term option as well. Next year we are gonna lose Manny and we are going to be starving for power. We have no real power in the farm, and we know power-hitters are never cheap. Every team wants them and no team wants to let them go. So, a deal for Cabrera now is the wisest and most visionary thing we can do right now.

#33

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 3:02 PM

And, by the way, even If we can't get Miguel Cabrera, I want Theo to explore other options before Lowell (Adam Dunn, Andy LaRoche).

#34

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 3:09 PM

And I completely agree with Sean O (23). A lineup with Ortiz-Cabrera-Manny will be one for the books of history. I can almost see the look of terror in the face of the pitchers.

#35

Posted by Shane, November 8, 2007 3:13 PM

Sean O, I was responding to Steven Roth's suggestion of packaging Coco et al. for Chipper.

#36

Posted by Bob, November 8, 2007 3:27 PM

I think if Lowell is back it will be for a 2-3 year deal maybe a 2 yr deal with an option for a third. I don't think the front-office will do anything more than that. If they acquire Cabrera I'll be thrilled, but I don't see it happening, the Dodgers have better prospects and I think they'll offer more for two reasons:

1) They want to give Torre a veteran team. They have a lot of young pieces and it wouldn't kill them to offer say Clayton Kershaw, and maybe some combination of LaRoche, Tony Abreu, Matt Kemp, Andre Eithier or James Loney to get a bat like Cabrera's especially with their lack of power.

2) I think after the World Series there's absolutely no way that the Red Sox can go with Crisp in the outfield and it will probably take Ellsbury to get Cabrera.

What seems like a good scenario in my mind is give Lowell 3 years, he'll be a solid 6 hole hitter for at least 1 1/2- 2 and might be a liability by the 3rd. At that point you move Youk to 3rd and either deal or use one of the MANY true 1st basemen in the farm system. Lars Andersen looks like a really good power hitter 2-3 years down the road and his readiness would coincide with Lowell's decline. Does this make sense to anyone else? Am I crazy?

#37

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 3:28 PM

Shane, saw that afterwards, so yes, my mistake.

Jeremy-

I distrust this front office as much as anyone. I am hoping they're discussing Lowell with the attempt to work him to 2 years plus a club option, then when that doesn't happen, we work on plan B. Or, they're trying to show good faith to all the other players in the clubhouse by making it seem like we're trying everything to re-sign him, when Cabrera's their guy.

It's a no brainer between Cabrera and Lowell. Even if it costs us Ellsbury and any of Masterson/Lowrie/Moss/Bowden, do it in a heartbeat.

#38

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 3:31 PM

Bob-

I don't trust Lowell through July of 2008, that's how little faith I have in him. His performance this year is roughly the same in my mind as what we got from Mirabelli: total icing on the cake, but nothing we can expect to last. The chance of Lowell remaining near .500 SLG for 2 years, let alone 3, is highly doubtful, and his BA will regress to the 270s-280s, and he doesn't walk much.

Cabrera, whatever it takes.

#39

Posted by Bob, November 8, 2007 3:41 PM

Let's say he hits .280 next year with around 20 homers and 90 something RBI thats a big drop-off but its still a very productive player to have in your lineup assuming Manny is Many again next year (not entirely a given but he should be somewhat better) and Drew improves (I absolutely expect this to happen) not to mention Papi healthy and regaining his true power stroke the team can more than make-up for that drop-off from Lowell. Like I said, I won't be upset at all if I see Cabrera walk through that door (I'll shed a tear for Jacoby, my favorite farm product in a while), but I really think that if it comes to it the Dodgers will outbid the Red Sox. They have a new manager, more pieces to offer, and they've been irrelevant for too long to pass up this opportunity.

#40

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 3:58 PM

On a semi-related note:

Schilling is in favor of going with a six-man rotation.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7422660

#41

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 4:08 PM

It's true the Dodgerss look like the most serious competitors to us. But I think we have better prospects in one department: pitchers. And that's something the Marlins really wants. That's why the signing of Schilling and the opening of the possibility of trading Lester was so relevant to me.

#42

Posted by M.A.G., November 8, 2007 4:12 PM

And, talking about Cabrera's "lazyness", Joe Girardi has praised his work ethic:

"He's a great player, a smart player," Girardi told New York sportswriters. "He really understands the game of baseball. I was impressed in how mature he was as a hitter at a young age, his approach on a daily basis. I did not have any problems with him. He worked hard for me."

#43

Posted by Dave B., November 8, 2007 5:05 PM

I have done a lot of thinking on this issue and i have changed my mind. I think it would be a great idea to trade for Cabrera under one circumstance, they don't trade Buchholz. If a package of Lester/Ellsbury/Masterson can get it done, than it would be a no brainer. I'm not completely convinced that such a deal would work, but we should look into it.

As i've said before, i'm not a huge Ellsbury guy, so seeing him go doesn't hurt too much. In 2 years there is a pretty good chance that one of the Place/Kalish/Lin group will be ready to take over for Coco. Another reason why trading Ellsbury isn't a huge deal.

An acquisition of Cabrera could also mark the end of Manny as a Red Sox. I think it would be a good time to see what he can get you on the open market. I could see the Giants/Tigers/Brewers/Rangers making decent bids for him. Maybe and Andrew Miller? Salty?

#44

Posted by jeremy, November 8, 2007 5:07 PM

If your argument is "we should get Cabrera instead of Lowell," then, presuming that there is a realistic opportunity to take Cabrera, it's a reasonable argument.

Evan's argument, however, was that a number of players that the front office jettisoned in the past, including some fan favorites, have gone downhill since they were tossed overboard, and that therefore Lowell should be tossed overboard, presumably because he's a fan favorite.

There's obviously going to be a significant downside risk for Lowell over the next few years, and the longer that that contract extends, the greater that risk is going to be in the out years. However, I think that the sports media may have overplayed Lowell's actual contract demands, and / or his ability to get a multi-year contract from other organizations.

He commands a high salary, which restricts the teams that he can go to. His multi-year viability is going to be in question because of his age. That's a risk that a team like New York or Boston or possibly Toronto could take, but small market and small budget teams are going to balk at it.

This team took Lowell at 18 or so million over two years when there was next to no upside expectation, and it was worth the money in their eyes because they were able to acquire Beckett, another player that at the time was regarded as damaged goods whose perennial injuries were preventing him from ever having the kind of season that he was clearly capable of.

The situation now is somewhat different. We've seen what both of these guys are capable of. Lowell's stats for 2006 and 2007 were in the same range as his career stats. I think that objectively we can say now that the 2005 season was an anomaly on his otherwise sterling record as a regular starter in MLB.

This year was NOT out of character for Lowell. This is who this guy is. He's not playing out of his mind, he's playing at the same level that he has played for all but one of his career seasons where he was a full year starter. Presuming that he's going to have a drop-off based on the assumption that this year was an anomaly is no good because the basic premise is false. Likewise his 2007 fielding at 3rd base was staggeringly average for Mike Lowell.

Just based on a 13% annual inflation on his 2004 salary (which would put his 9mil per year for 2006 and 2007 about in line if you had ramped them), he's carrying about an 11mil expectation for 2008 up to about 14 mil for 2010. 12.5 mil per year on a three year deal isn't outrageous, and 37mil is the kind of money that this team can easily wager to get two seasons of Mike Lowell caliber seasons out of this guy.

Secondly, we have people here who are acting as if it's Mike Lowell OR Miguel Cabrera.

That's a fallacy too. Cabrera's played all over the place. Infield, outfield, he's a classic utility player. This team can find a place for Cabrera to play over the next couple years, even if Lowell has 3rd base sealed and Yook has first wrapped up. I suggest that we consider Cabrera as fitting in in Lugo's spot.

I'm a little creeped out that Miguel's a voodoo priest, but that's not going to keep me from rooting for him :D

Money is not an issue. Positions are not an issue. Having some additional infield depth would be a bonus for everyone involved, and Terry is more than capable of managing the situation if he continues to be given great options like this.

We'll see where it finally comes out, but I wouldn't be shocked to see both these guys on the Red Sox roster on opening day.

#45

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 5:13 PM

Jeremy - good points.

Dave - my assumption is, if Manny gets traded, it'd be after 2008. I don't see us trading for Cabrera then immediately hurt a ridiculous offense by trading Ramirez. But, if we do a Sheffield with the Yanks thing (pick up the option, then trade him), and manny has a valuable 2008, then we're primed.

I'm hoping we'll get similar news with Cabrera like we did with Beckett, only with me being happy this time.

#46

Posted by Craig, November 8, 2007 5:38 PM

I agree with Jeremy.

Mike Lowell's performance over the past two years is representative of how he performed prior to 2005. In essence, 2005 was an anomaly.

That said, I favor a two year contract at $12 to $13M a year with an option for a third. I do not favor three years guaranteed.

Also, I think the Sox are very interested in signing both Cabrera and Lowell and would not be surprised either to find both them on the Sox roster next spring.

#47

Posted by Sam, November 8, 2007 6:20 PM

I mentioned going after Salty in another thread ... and the more I think about it ... Ill admit it is certainly far fetched but think of a situation like this...

1) Trade 3 prospects (basically anyone but Buch) ... say Ellsbury/Lester/Bowden for Miguel Cabrera

2) See if we can't trade Manny to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and another pitching prospect

3) Put Salty at first, Youk at 3rd, and Miggy in left for this year ... as much as Id hate to see Tek go when he becomes a free agent I think you definently have to look for another big bat ... maybe go and get Texiera or Dunn and then move Salty to catcher ... anyways yeah we could be looking at a lineup like this for '09...

2B - Pedroia

3B - Youkilis

DH - Papi

LF - Cabrera

1B - Texiera/Dunn

C - Salty

RF - Drew

CF - Crisp

SS - Lugo

of course this doesn't include our rotation without Lester, and it doesn't take into account where our payroll would be by then ... so yeah maybe Im pulling this stuff out of my ass but still I think its kinda interesting eh?

#48

Posted by Evan Brunell, November 8, 2007 6:48 PM

Catch a load of this via Rotoworld:

The Red Sox have a three-year offer out to Mike Lowell that they may not be willing to budge off of, according to the Boston Globe.

Lowell will be able to get four or maybe even five years elsewhere, something the Red Sox must know. If they're sticking to three years, it better include a very good salary ($16 million per year or so). While Lowell wants to play in Boston, he can only leave so much money on the table.

SIXTEEN.

MILLION.

DOLLARS.

For someone who couldn't be unloaded at 1y/9m 6 months ago?

Bye, Mike.

#49

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 6:49 PM

This is great news for us. But if we miss out on Cabrera because we're dicking around with Lowell, then someone's getting slapped.

Nobody would pay $16m/y for 3/4 years to Lowell, nobody.

#50

Posted by Daniel Rathman, November 8, 2007 7:47 PM

Evan:

If that's true, bye Mike indeed. It's weird, I'd actually not be completely averse to Lowell going to the Yankees. He won't have the benefit of Fenway there (at least not most of the time) and his numbers will already be declining because of age and regression to the mean. He'd be another overpriced lemon for the Yanks in two years -- and that's a road I'd love to see them go down again.

Lowell's a great guy. But great guy's don't cost $16 million a year. If 3/48 is what it's going to cost, then here's my perfect offseason:

1. Let Lowell go.

2. Trade any three non-Buchholz prospects for Cabrera (including Ellsbury)

3. Trade Manny to one of the following:

--Brewers, for Corey Hart and a prospect

--Rangers, for Salty and a prospect

--Dodgers, for Kemp and Broxton/Meloan

--Giants, for Tim Lincecum (hey, if Sabean is dumb enough to do it...)

4. Ideally...

Pedroia, 2B

Youkilis, 3B

Papi, DH

Cabrera, LF/1B

Salty/Hart/Kemp, 1B/CF/LF

Drew, RF

Varitek, C

Crisp(?), CF

Lugo, SS

That lineup has the potential to be absolutely DEADLY for a very long time.

As much as I hated this morning, I love 3.5 hour school days!

#51

Posted by hynes, November 8, 2007 8:04 PM

Evan - yeah. Carfardo at the Globe is reporting that Lowell has actually had a 3yr deal (no word on money or if all years are guaranteed) for multiple days now. The hesitation factor here makes you think that Lowell and his agents know this is his payday and he's not going to have a better time then now to go out and get that 3-4 year $14-$16M contract.

The more I think about the possibilities of Cabrera, the more I like that option more - even if it means losing Lester and Ellsbury. In my humble opinion, signing Lowell just doesn't fit in the long-term plans for the Sox. Not when you have someone like Cabrera available. He's 24, under control, still to hit his prime and already a proven big leaguer. Lowell, thanks for the memories but I'm going with the masher.

#52

Posted by Bob, November 8, 2007 8:48 PM

This is all assuming that the Sox can get Cabrera, which is miles away from a given, but let's assume Lowell walks and the Dodgers or Mystery Team X wins the Cabrera sweepstakes, then what...

Youkilis to 3rd and Chris Carter at 1st? Carter might be Major League ready, but it's risky to have two rookies in the line-up (Ellsbury is staying put unless its for a player like Cabrera), same can be said for putting Jed Lowrie at 3rd . A-Rod (please God no, by the way he's just one year younger than Lowell), Joe Crede doesn't mesh with the organizational philosophy. If the Sox don't re-sign Lowell they are going to have to sell the entire farm to ensure that they get Cabrera because the other options don't look rosy at all.

#53

Posted by Sam, November 8, 2007 9:04 PM

yeah alot of this is going to come down to timing ... as it usually does during the offseason ... I am so glad I'm not Theo sometimes

#54

Posted by Sean O, November 8, 2007 10:41 PM

Chris Carter can't hit, nuf ced. If we pencil him into first next year, we may as well have mienty back. Just without the fielding.

We have to look outside the organization until if/when Lars is ready.

#55

Posted by JaredK, November 9, 2007 11:03 AM

Yeah, get Lowell done at 3 years. The Angels & Dodgers can offer better packages for Cabrera IMO and which ever does not get ARod will likely get Cabrera. The Angels should get him as they could give up Willits (CF), Brandon Wood (would not be missed as he is likely a 3B) Hank Conger (either Mathis or Napoli or both should be above avg catchers) plus a Nick Adenhart or Ervin Santana...either of the pitchers is the only thing that would really hurt the Angels depth-wise.

Anyway, I am sentimental about Lowell but I also feel Cabrera is an a-hole and does not have much respect for the game...I prefer a team I can root for...would have a hard time rooting for this fat prick.

#56

Posted by M.A.G., November 9, 2007 2:41 PM

Dave B. Good to see we are on the same side on this one. I support the idea of trading Manny. I'm a big fan of Saltalamacchia, and we are probably seeing the last year of Tek in a Red Sox uniform.

#57

Posted by Dan, November 12, 2007 3:08 PM

It is only my opinion, but I think the Sox are setting up they Yankee's just like they did with the Damon contract. Offer Lowel just enough so that he turns it down and make the Yankees stretch to get him. Get out the same violin that Theo used for the Yankee's to sign Clements for that ridiculous contract as Cashman was panicked to think that the Sox were going to sign him. So it will go with Lowell. After the next two years when he probably should retire he is guaranteed for at least one to two more years. Thank Lowell and let him ride off to a nice contract.

Now lets get serious and trade for Cabrera and then turn our attention to Santana out in Minnesota. Use the saved money from Clemette, and Lowel and bring him in. What a lineup and pitching staff we would have.

#58

Posted by Bill Baldwin, November 12, 2007 8:09 PM

Oh, Evan! Where did your teachers and family go wrong? Tsk, tsk. Your logic is so flawed as to be disgraceful. Your analogies defy description. And your vocabulary, grammar, and contex begs that if you have a proofteader or editor, fire him/her/ or both and get new ones. If you have neither, get both or at least a proof reader.

Then go to Japan and cover those baseball teams.

Please.

#59

Posted by C. M., November 13, 2007 2:48 AM

You guys realize Chipper Jones has actually won a WS ring already right? In 1995.

#60

Posted by Doobie, November 13, 2007 2:51 AM

No team is going to land Cabrera and Santana.

Discussions were Cano + more for Cabrera. That means for the Red Sox they would have to start with Ellsbury, not Crisp. Unless they wanted to package Crisp + Lester + more.

With Santana, it would probably start with Buchholz, and possibly reach into Ellsbury too right now. They have time to trade him. They will not go low.

#61

Posted by Michelle, November 13, 2007 3:31 PM

Please keep Mike Lowell!!!

#62

Posted by Tessa, November 13, 2007 3:32 PM

ARE YOU JOKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YOU ARE A HORRIBLE PERSON TO THINK WE SHOULD LET HIM GO....

I LOVE MIKEY LOWELL!