With Alex Rodriguez remaining in the Bronx, Mike Lowell re-upping in Boston and Torii Hunter hitting the lottery with the Angels (30+ years old, career 104 OPS+ and $18 million per?) the two withstanding names of curiosity are trade chips: Miguel Cabrera and Johan Santana. Both studs will require a shipment of high-quality prospects and, unless the organization is out of their minds, a costly extension. Saying that, these are two once in a lifetime proven players that contenders would drool to have for years to come.
I attacked Miguel Cabrera trade scenarios and whether it
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I am going to give the same arguement that i gave for Cabrera. What is better:
Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Moss/Anderson, and whoever Crisp can get us, costing us under $50 M for 30 years of service time.
or
Santana costing us about $130 M for 7 years of service time.
If the same deal could be made for Dan Haren, I’d actually prefer him to Santana. Santana HR rates are rising, and I just don’t think he’s a good fit for Fenway. Haren is under contract on ridiculously cheap terms for 2-3 more years, and his K/BB rate fits right in with the Sox philosophy.
Honestly, I think we’re fine with Beckett-DiceK-Schilling-Buchholz-Wake/Lester. Any upgrade is a luxury, but I wouldn’t give up Buchholz for Santana or Haren — or anyone else, for that matter.
NO NO NO NO NO.
We have pitching, we have no hitting, especially with Mike “.725 post-ASB OPS” Lowell returning for 3 years. Santana would not be the same, and Haren would be much worse.
No way in hell. We need hitting. If only we had a corner position that wasn’t blocked by an idiotic free agent signing.
Agreed Sean. Even with Santana being arguably the best picther in the majors, I wouldn’t make a deal that would cost us either Ellsbury or Buchholz. Not to mention both. If we could send off Lester, Crisp, and Lowrie, I would do it in a heartbeat. However, this year we probably will already have the best rotation in the league. Upgrading in a weakspot would be much more valuable then upgrading the best part of our game.
I would agree with you that the Yankees have a greater need for Santana than the Red Sox do. http://valentinesviews.blogspot.com/2007/11/yankees-red-sox-aim-for-santana.html
Of course I can’t help but drooling over a 1-2 of Santana-Beckett the same way I drooled over Papi-Manny-Cabrera … but really I don’t think it’s that big of a need to justify a blockbuster like that … I mean with the rotation we have in place we really don’t need Santana now … and we shouldn’t need him later if we hang on to all our young guys
Honestly I don’t see Santana getting traded this year at all … at least not for that kind of bounty … the big market teams who appear to be in the running for him are all in good enough positions to just wait it out until he becomes a free agent
well actually I take that back … I don’t know if the Mets could put together a good enough package to reel him in … but if they could I don’t doubt they would … they need something to help them make a speedy recovery after last years disaster … Santana would be a beast for the Mets … I dunno if they have the pieces to get into a bidding war tho
What I don’t understand is, if the Twins are willing to give Santana $20M/year, why not offer 6/120? If the rumors of him only wanting $126M are true, that would probably do the trick.
I’m actually not convinced that the Twins truly want Santana back, and would rather have him than the prospects. The question is, will the Twins’ leverage increase if they trade him at the Deadline (b/c there might be a team that desperately needs him) or decrease (because he’s going to be a free agent at year’s end)?
If we’re looking for a left-handed pitcher then how about packaging Lester, Crisp and maybe a prospect for Scott Kazmir. Kazmir had more strikeouts than Santana this year had a .15 higher era and only gave up 13 more hits. Kazmir would certainly cost less in terms of prospects and money that will be owed in comparison to Santana. Not to mention Kazmir is 5 years younger and a Red Sox killer. The Rays have been looking to use Crawford as a selling point this offseason and them aquiring Crisp would allow them to part ways with him. Just an idea.
Question about the poll on the right. By the same exact team I’m assuming you mean Ellsbury in center the entire season and Buchholz in the playoffs. If that’s the case, I went out on a limb and said another World Series. Why not? We owned the best record in baseball virtually the entire season, it’s no fluke that we won.
Plus there are a variety of other factors such as Matsuzaka having a year of experience under his belt, and the Red Sox knowing they can’t have him throw 120 pitches every game on a 5 day schedule. Drew’s son won’t be sick and he’ll also have a year experience in the AL. There’s a good chance Lugo will have a better year since last year was horrible for him. If he doesn’t however, Lowrie is major league ready and he’s no slouch.
Plus, Delcarmen could build on what was a great year last year. The Red Sox will likely add another power arm for the end of what was already the league’s best bullpen. This could be the year that Hansen, or another number of our relief prospects figure things out. Tavarez likely won’t be in the rotation for the majority of the year, as he was last year. The Red Sox have 6 legit starters, should one get injured or be ineffective.
Ortiz will be healthy and there’s a good chance Manny will rebound from what was one of the worst years of his career.
There’s quite a wide range of reasons why the Red Sox will be better this year than last. I don’t know half as many reasons why they won’t be. For the most part they were cautious with their pitchers’ innings. Most of the offensive players had off years as well.
I don’t think Andrew Friedman is dumb enough to trade Kazmir within the division, especially considering that he’s cost-controlled — for now, at least. Plus, the Devil Rays have a truckload of young talent on the brink of being big league ready; why deal away the potential ace of a team that could be scary in 2009?
I’d pass on Santana, but if Dan Haren is available for less, then I’d certainly consider pulling the trigger on that one.
KNBR:
“If the Red Sox inquire about Santana, the Twins are likely to request a package including both of their top prospects (I assume this means Buchholz and Ellsbury), plus two more mid- to high-caliber prospects (Masterson, Bowden, Lowrie?), and potentially another low-level, high-ceiling player (Oscar Tejeda?).”
If that’s not mortgaging the future, I don’t know what is.
I’d like to think, based on recent developments, that Theo and the gang are waking up to fact that we want our prospects staying home. There is a real good feeling around the franchise right now, and it would send a great message to all the crazies that we don’t need to buy something just pecause everybody else wans it. The Red Sox need to see out their investmet and allow themselves the payoff for raising these guys the rightway.
Here’s my take on the Johan saga.
I think that adding the best pitcher in the world, if possible, is a no-brainer.
I think that if Clay Buchholz has to be in the deal, we walk away. He’s got a great chance to be the next great pitcher (and Jim Callis or Keith Law — one of the two — grades him higher than Joba).
Here’s how I think it’ll play out. During the winter meetings, headlines will be made about the Angels acquiring Miguel Cabrera for Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Joe Saunders/Ervin Santana and another prospect.
The outroar from the Dodger faithful will prove to be too much, as the Angels will have continued their thumping of the Dodgers in the market.
The Johan rumors heat up during the winter meeting with the Mets the aggressive suitors, but not enough pieces to make it work. The Yankees will make an offer and delay as long as they can not to include Cano or Joba (one of which HAS to happen). The Red Sox will explore a trade, and fans will be flamed with an “imminent deal” to Boston — much like the Cabrera flames leapt up and then died down.
In the end, the Dodgers will sweep in and acquire Johan Santana and sign him to an extension. They just can’t stand aside any longer, and have the position players that Minnesota wants. Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and two other prospects (but no Clayton Kershaw) will head to the Twin Cities.
I feel as though the Red Sox are in the sweepstakes because 1. they’re a baseball superpower and for that reason they have to inquire when pitchers such as Santana are on the trading block and 2. they are trying to up the price the Yankees would have to pay in order to get him. It just doesn’t seem logical that the Red Sox would even entertain a deal when the Twins are asking for, as Daniel said, both of their top prospects, plus two more mid- to high-caliber prospects, and potentially another low-level, high-ceiling player. I doubt the Red Sox would even trade the first factor of that deal in Buchholz and Ellsbury. I’m sure that, unless the asking price goes way, way, down, the Red Sox won’t seriously be interested.
I saw reports that he wants 5 years, 150
As a Yankees fan, I’d love to see the Red Sox give that much up for one pitcher whose arm will probably fall apart in the past five years. In reality, it’s not going to happen. You’re not going to give up Bucholtz just like we’re not giving up Joba or Hughes. In the same token, we’re not giving up Cano anymore than you’d be willing to give up Pedroia.
Everything you hear in the media right now is the Twins trying to lure some idiot GM into giving them twice what Santana is realistically worth. They were able to make it work once (see the Liriano/Nathan trade) so why not? Neither Theo or Cashman is that stupid.
I think in reality Santana will end up with the Dodgers in a deal that will kill their offense for about the next 5 years. If not I could see them giving in to the Yankees offer of Melky/Kennedy or Wang/Tabata or Jackson. I see a package of Lester/Ellsbury and another high-end prospect (I’m not as familiar with your system) possibly equaling that in the Twins’ eyes. But I think there was a stupid move made if any one of Hughes/Cano/Joba/Bucholtz/Pedroia end up in a Twins uniform next year, it’s just not worth it when you have to pay him the big bucks in a year in addition to the players
And of course by past five years I mean next five years
If what Stark said is true about Garza being available for the right young center fielder and being that the Twins are one of the most interested teams in Crisp I’d like to see him in Boston over Santana if the Sox can get it done for Crisp and maybe one mid-level minor league bat like Aaron Bates. He’s cheaper than Santana in terms of prospects and dollars and he’s one of the best young pitchers in the league. The only problem is if the Twins trade Johan theres no sense in trading Garza and the Red Sox don’t really have room for him. Still, if they could pick up Garza and swing him for a bat it would be a genius move.
Here’s some more commentary from the Herald’s Tony Massarotti about the possibility of a Santana trade:
“Remember: Two years ago, when the Red Sox were looking for a staff ace, they debated the merits of trading for Josh Beckett or signing A.J. Burnett. Owner John Henry was among those who argued for Burnett, saying he would cost the Sox only a multi-million-dollar contract while allowing the club to protect its prospects. Nonetheless, primarily because of the Bill Lajoie-Craig Shipley tandem empowered by Larry Lucchino during Theo Epstein
I think with a pitcher like Johan, you always have to inquire. Would I love Johan pitching between Beckett and Dice-K next year? Hell yeah! A Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Schilling, Buchholz/Lester/Wake rotation would strike fear into any rotation in the majors, let alone the AL. But for the price that the Twins are asking combined with the price Santana will want in a contract extension makes this deal too rich for my blood.
I would look instead to some other players like Haren, Bedard (O’s have said everyone is available and Bedard hates it Baltimore. Andy may not want to deal within the division, but in the end he’s more concerned about a building a contender again) and possibly Matt Garza.
One thing I do like about all of this though, even if the Sox end up doing nothing, is the fact that Theo & Co. are looking to continue to improve themselves. Making yourself that my deeper in a rotation is always a bonus. We may not have the 03-05 offensive power in 08 but we’re not exactly the Dodgers here either. We’re a top 3-5 offensive power with a dominant pitching staff and a great defense. That wins World Series people – not HRs.
So if the price is right, I’m all for it; but I’m also up for adding to this team in other ways and filling in some holes within the bullpen and bench.
I still wouldn’t do it. The difference between Ellsbury and Crisp is going to improve the Red Sox more than Johan and whoever he replaces in the rotation. There is not a single weak spot in our rotation so why are we seeking to improve it. Meanwhile, we have a little-leaguer playing shortstop and if Ellsbury is dealt it’s as if we have a pitcher in our lineup in Coco Crisp.
Chip, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees gave up Joba or Hughes. They’re really in need of a staff ace and if Pettitte retires, the Yankees will be in desperate need of starters, and will be without a lefty.
And with the Yankees losing the division for the first time in many years, and losing their claim of being the elite team of this era, you know the Steinbrenners are looking to make a splash. They’ve done desperate things for Posada, Mo, and A-Rod. Why not Santana?
I’d still rather have a hitter than Santana. For the nth time, we have nothing coming up the pipeline, while we seem to have a new top pitching prospect each week. I want some freaking hitting, so Youk isn’t our power source in 2011.
I still stand by the idea of seeing what we can get for Manny. The Dodgers have shown interest in the past, like mature players, are looking for an outfielder, and have young players that we should covet. I would do a Kemp for Manny trade straight up anyday of the week.
Somewhere, sometime, I read “Never trade a horse for two ponies.” I think it was when we acquired Lee Smith.
Santana is a horse, and worth many ponies. My main concern is his health. I worry.
I would give one of the four, any one, but no more than one: Bucholz, Lester, Pedroia or Ellsbury, plus 3 anyone else in the minors.