The Red Sox have been a model of consistency this past offseason, a striking departure from their modus operandi in 2004. For the most part, the 25-man roster is settled except for the bullpen, which is shaping up to be a battle for the last two spots.
Running through the locks: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Julian Tavarez (despite his September/October disappearing act, which I still haven’t heard an explanation for), Mike Timlin.
That leaves two spots for the likes of David Aardsma, Craig Breslow, Bryan Corey, Devern Hansack, Craig Hansen, Javier Lopez, Edgar Martinez, David Pauley and Kyle Snyder. How did I get those names? They’re on Boston’s 40-man roster, and I can’t fathom us selecting someone not on the 40-man roster to break camp ahead of any of the two above people. Danny Kolb, Dan Miceli and Dave B.’s pet player, Lee Gronkiewicz, should all be ticketed for Pawtucket.
Let’s run through the candidates (all statistics of 2007):
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DAVID AARDSMA CHW: 31.1 IP, 6.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP AAA: 35.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP |
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| Aardsma, claimed off waivers from the Chicago White Sox, is only 26 and has a lot of upside. He can strike batters out, but as I mentioned the day we acquired him, he’s prone to walks. Despite his solid season as a Cub in 2006, he was volatile enough in 2007 that he will have to fight for his job. Aardsma is out of options, and will likely not make it through waivers. Is it worth the risk to try to get him through? | |||
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CRAIG BRESLOW AAA: 68.2 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP |
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| For two long years, I’ve been crying to “Free Breslow!” and we got to see him for 12 innings in 2006. In 2007? His first half in AAA was brilliant, but he fell off a cliff in the second half. He will not make the roster, but if he’s consistent enough in Pawtucket, should log some major league time. Only 27, he can still turn in a solid career. His (most likely losing) battle to make the roster will rest on his ability to throw from the south side; his only competition is Javier Lopez. Since he is out of options, it is possible he could be lost to another team if (when) he doesn’t get a job. | |||
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BRYAN COREY BOS: 9.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP AAA: 68.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP |
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| Since being acquired from Texas in the Sox’s only trade deadline deal in 2006, he’s been surprisingly good when on the roster. He impressed so much in September that we wondered if he should be put on the postseason roster. A sleeper to win a spot. | |||
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DEVERN HANSACK BOS: 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 1.83 WHIP AAA: 139.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP |
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| Hansack provided a bright spot to an otherwise dismal ending to the 2006 season by no-hitting the Orioles through five innings (and vis a vis the rain delay, got credit for a full game). He was less impressive in his second go-round in 2007 and shouldn’t be considered so he can be counted on for a few spot starts over the season. To do that, he needs to start in Pawtucket. | |||
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CRAIG HANSEN AAA: 51.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.75 WHIP |
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| He holds a career 6.59 ERA in the majors, but is still only 24. He made significant strides this past year at Triple-A and can start being looked at as a solid middle relief prospect again. He suffered from sleep apnea and the problem has since been corrected. With a strong spring, he could surprise. More than likely, however, he’ll report to Triple-A and prove that he’s back to the Craig Hansen we drafted. | |||
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JAVIER LOPEZ BOS: 40.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP AAA: 16.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.62 WHIP |
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| Out of the people on this list, Javier Lopez is easily the one with the best shot of breaking camp with the team. He is a left-handed pitcher who is cast as a lefty specialist (despite the abberation of reverse splits last year). He is a groundball machine and despite bouts with wildness, handles himself well. Bet on him flying to Japan. | |||
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EDGAR MARTINEZ AAA: 68.0 IP, 5.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP |
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| There’s been a lot said about El Guapo version 2. 26 years old, he reached Pawtucket for the first time last year and checked in with a 5.16 ERA. He has an excellent four-seam and two-seam fastball, but his off-speed pitches aren’t MLB caliber. He also gives up too much homeruns. He has no shot of breaking the roster, but if he can keep the ball down, could see a callup in September — perhaps earlier. | |||
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DAVID PAULEY AAA: 153.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP |
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| Much like Devern Hansack, Pauley’s value right now is tied up in the fact that he can start, so he’s definitely headed to Rhode Island. However, I’m putting him here because odds are good that we’ll see him at some point this year. Despite our tremendous starting pitching depth in Schilling (the second half), Tavarez and Hansack, the likelihood that we avoid dipping into the pool any more than the aforementioned three is very low. Pauley is known by many of us for his trial-by-fire in Yankee Stadium, which he passed with flying colors. Spending the entire year in Pawtucket, it was a major adjustment for him to compete against AAA hitters for the entire year. He acquitted himself well and looks to be ready to start cracking the 25-man roster on occasion. He’s one of my prime sleepers for trade candidates to a bad team where he can get more opportunities to start. | |||
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KYLE SNYDER AAA: 54.1 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP |
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| Snyder signed a non-guaranteed contract, avoiding arbitration. He’s coming off his most successful year in the bigs, having spent the entire year on a World Series champion’s 25-man roster and doing okay. His ERA doesn’t reflect that he wasn’t really that good. His 1.41 does a better job of reflecting that (54.1 IP, 45 H, 32 BB, 41 K, 6 HBP, 4 WP, 7 HR). Snyder’s a nice story, but I really don’t have much confidence in him at all. That being said, he’s easily the favorite to win the final bullpen spot and will have to stave off David Aardsma to do it. | |||
Long story short, I fully expect Javier Lopez and Kyle Snyder to continue the Red Sox being models of consistency and breaking camp with the team.
However, I have to admit that I’d much rather see Aardsma and then Corey get first crack at the roster instead of Snyder. On the lefty side of the discussion, while Lopez did a great job and has no reason not to break camp with the team, I really am intrigued by Breslow and would hate to lose him.
That being said, the odds that every single pitcher in this breakdown pitching at least one pitch for the Red Sox in 2008 is very high. Through attrition, ineffectiveness, injuries and September call-ups, we should see all these players.
I’ve been following Aardsma for a long time, and now that he’s a Red Sox, has become one of “my boys.” Because of that status, his previous successes and profile, I’m going to make a bold prediction here and declare that given enough playing time at the major league level, he could outperform all of the players listed here. What is clear, however, is the Red Sox have built up some crazy depth in the bullpen, which bodes nothing but good things for us.
A bullpen is very volatile. Average relievers can turn in great seasons one year, awful ones the next. It takes a lot to maintain consistency in the bullpen, which is why it’s such a fluid part of the roster. It’s vital to have interchangeable parts in the bullpen, and the Red Sox have just that.
Who would you like to see break camp with the Red Sox? Who do you think on this list has the best chance of helping the Red Sox?
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Good summary. My choice would be “all of the above”. We could see breakout the year for Aardsma, Breslow, Corey, Hansen, but I think you are correct they will start in Pawtucket.
If we don’t trade for a replacement for Schilling, Hansack seems ready to be a good immediate #5, leaving Buckholz for some developmental starts in Pawtucket.
Then, if Hansack does a great job, my bet is he will move over to the Pen when Buckholz comes up, to resume his Winter League success, providing needed long relief and spot starts.
Thanks for the plug! If I had to pick two guys from the list that isn’t Gronk I’d go with Hansen and Breslow. I agree that it is going to be Lopez and Snyder but both those guys are junk. Breslow would be a better LOOGY and Hansen has as much upside as anyone in the pen. Aardsma is interesting but I wouldn’t trust him.
Why not Breslow as the situational lefty? Lopez hasn’t done a very good job at it. Anyone have some lefty/righty splits on Breslow from last year?
“He equipped himself well and looks to be ready to start cracking the 25-man roster on occasion.”
Are you kidding me? How did he equip himself? New jock? Extra duty cup for those comebackers? Maybe a new glove?
The phrase is “acquitted himself well”, as the third definition of “acquit” at the Merriam-Webster’s website shows:
to conduct (oneself) usually satisfactorily especially under stress
Thank you for the correction, Dan. It has been reflected.
With this bullpen, it’s possible the Sox won’t make the playoffs this year. As a matter of fact, it’s possible the Sox will finish behind the Rays in ‘08.
Any chance of getting edel2178 to post under the name he’s always used? I know he’s plugging his blog and all, but the muckraking/baiting across mvn over the past few days has been a little over the top, and less than sincere under the banner of “Olde Town Glory.”
Also, Gerry, you are the perfect foil to Sean O. On one side we have the see no evil, on the other, see nothing but pumpkins and sunshine. I would not be surprised to read Gerry suggest that Theo bat in the 5 hole because he’s won two rings.
Gawd we need the season to start.
MR — if there are any comments/baiting that you think need to be addressed, can you point me to them? Thank you!
#6
Uhhhhhhhhhhmmmm… we had one of the best bullpens last year, so… yeah. Not concerned.
Sure, Evan, but don’t you see that it’s possible, as in anything is possible? Even you must see that.
Mostly, I’m not sure what you’re talking about but I know for certain that I’m not the one hiding under the fake name “Edelman’s a Douche”.
Evan-
Just his getting into it with Moshe re: yanks v. sox starters. I like what he writes, but it seems like transparency in commenting is a good idea for the admins to follow. You have to go to his blog to find that he has written here in the past, even if his style is transparent to folks who have read this site for a while.
I probably have missed it, but is there a reason you don’t require registration to post comments? I know it’s easy to evade, no matter what you put in place, but with the back and forth “trolling” accusations that fly between the bronx block and here, it might be good to lend a little bit of accountability to people’s identities.
And, as I’m sure you can verify, I’m not the “Edelman’s [sic] A Douche” little bit of awesomeness.
Mostly, Mo’s the one who came HERE with the argument that the Yankees rotation was now as good as the Red Sox, so I’m not sure how I could be the one who’s baiting or trolling.
lol, sure. You’re the only one complaining about me, and you think it’s awesome, but it isn’t you.
Go back to your Yankees site.
#10 Absolutely. It’s definitely possible.
MR — actually, it’s funny you mention that (user registration) today of all days. Head to EvanBrunell.com (more specifically my most recent article, which is here: http://evanbrunell.wordpress.com/2008/02/11/nepa-rebooting-the-web/ )
I have a feeling that Edelman’s A Douche, Big Tony T, Geno and Jim are all Mostly Running behind a proxy. They all share the same IP address and they’re the only ones who complain about Edelman here. Looks like someone has a little too much free time on their hands.
You’re wrong, Blue Hens. Their IPs are not the same.
That part of the conversation is over. Any future comments dealing with the Edelman subject matter will be deleted.
Right, I said he was behind a proxy so his IP wouldn’t match. But I bet if you check the IP’s of those names SOME of them will match because I bet he gets lazy and doesn’t switch a proxy every time he switches names.
Evan-
Followed the link and agree for the most part. I think you will run into some trouble as you have to purge users over time, but the ideal you are proposing is awesome and I respect the concept and the optimism that buttresses it.
Mike-
“Awesomeness” is not “awesome.” Anyone who chooses to bait like the “douche” is lame. It wasn’t me. Though I don’t give my name, I maintain a consistent alias, consistent reference email and consistent ip. If someone chooses to spoof it, so be it.
I was pointing out your posts because I’m sick of the back and forth bs that happens between sox/yanks sites. I’m not sure I can claim your pedigree of being a 3rd generation fan, but I do know that I was born and raised a sox fan and have grown to love watching baseball played at its best.
Blue Hens-
Hi. My name is MR. I am a baseball fan who has rooted and cried for the Red Sox since before you were born.
There’s someone on the site that makes up fake names and says obscene things about me every time I use my name here. That’s why I changed my alias. You don’t give your name, I don’t give mine. What’s the difference? I’m using the same e-mail that I used when I wrote for the site.
If you’re sick of the back and forth on Sox sites then I’m not sure why you pointed to me. I didn’t go onto the Yankees site and say that I thought the Red Sox offense was as good as the Yankees. A Yankees fan came here and said that the Yankees rotation was as good as the Red Sox.
I don’t know what I can tell you. It’s a rivalry, there’s always going to be a back and forth whether you like it or not.
Evan-
Sorry, your post about the subject being closed showed up while I was composing. You obviously don’t need my permission, but feel free to delete my last post.
Evan… you say that Aardsma is out of options, that he probably won’t make it on the 25 man roster, and that he probably won’t make it through waivers. So how can you say that the odds that every single pitcher in this breakdown pitching at least one pitch for the Red Sox in 2008 is very high? Has there been news on the proposed 27 man roster for Japan (I think it is likely both spots will go to the bullpen)? If Selig says no, do we still have to decide on our 25 man roster, leaving Aardsma available, while other teams are still in ST? If they Yankees had room on their 40, they could pick him up in ST so we can’t keep him for those two games, then try to send him through wavers themselves?!
Sure someone else with real interest would probably want him first. But come on Selig.
[...] Firebrand of the American League: I’ll be taking my own look at the roster – probably after we have more to go on, say midway through Spring Training – but in the meantime, Evan Brunell over on Firebrand of the American League has an interesting look at the battle for the final few bullpen roles. I think it under emphasizes slightly the role that roster status will play in the decision making process – I’d personally be shocked if any of the folks that don’t have to pass through waivers make the club from the outset – but it’s a good roundup of the candidates and their strengths and weaknesses. [...]
Matsuzaka’s in camp sporting a mullet! Can’t wait to see the pictures of that one. Direct quote from Amalie Benjamin:
“It
Thanks, Mostly Running. I assume that’s not too harsh for either of us. Sean O and I both seem to need foils, and time will probably tell that we were both right about half the time. Although, Sean O., we have a lot more good things to look forward to than bad. It’s not an all-star studded Yankees/Steinbrunner Rockettes Show, but it can win it all if we use our formidable assets in MiLB.
I am a Julian fan. I think he is underrated.He did a great job as a starter and I think his disappearing act was dur to Tito’s dislike of the pitcher. Tito does not hide the fact that he disapproves of Julians’ antics on the mound. Go Julian.