In all of the chatter about the Red Sox’s 2008 season, there has been one clear trend: people expect Daisuke Matsuzaka to turn into a solid No. 2 starter, instead of the No. 3 he was last year.In his first year in the majors, Dice-K won 15 games while throwing for 204.2 innings, 201 strikeouts, 191 hits and 80 walks. For the first half of the year, he came as advertised as he went 10-6 in 119.2 IP and a 3.84 ERA. He stumbled the second half, showing a propensity for losing complete control of all of his pitches for an extended period of time and went 5-6, 85 IP, 5.19 ERA. Now, Dice-K will look to maintain his first-half consistency all year long.
Can he do it?
Bill James and CHONE projections are optimistic about what Dice-K can do for us in 2008. James has Matsuzaka at a 3.54 ERA, 30 starts, 193.0 IP. CHONE has him at a 3.94 ERA and 196.0 IP. Marcel is a hater, and says Dice-K will have a 4.33 ERA in 162.0 IP. And everyone’s favorite projection system, PECOTA, has him at 191.0 IP in 30 starts with a 3.90 ERA.
Overall, not bad. Three out of four believe he’ll have an ERA under 4.00 and innings over 190
Obviously, a lot will have to do with how Matsuzaka stays healthy the entire year and how much his body responds to the additional endurance required to complete a full season. With his mind at ease with the familiarity of the team and league and his body having been through the rigors of a full season at the young age of 27, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to adjust.
I believe that the Red Sox are going to be far more judicious in how they use Dice-K — especially since Curt Schilling is slated to return the second half of the year and we will have Julian Tavarez in the bullpen for a backup (and David Pauley in Triple-A).
How would they do this? Perhaps by having him skip a start here and there or going on the disabled list with a minor injury.
Why?
Josh Beckett thinks it’s what helped him in the postseason.
Beckett, who started his throwing program Jan. 3, admits that the playoff run most likely wouldn
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Good observation. We are, in fact, already in that age, and the 2007 fatigue related performance declines of Matsuzaka and Okajima (and Youk and Tek), and last year’s related injuries to Schill, Wake, Becket, Buckholz (and Manny and Pedroia) demonstrate our need to address it now, not later . . . especially with our dominant but fragile team.
This off-season discussions of a six man rotation reflected this, and our deep staff. You, Evan, and others, suggested a variation in which Becket pitched 5 days, while others didn’t. The Pen guy, would both provide long inning relief, and also spot start on a flexible rotation.
Even without Schill, we have the ability to create a solid “sixth man” pitching from the pen, giving regular breathers to the “five man rotation”. It beats waiting for an injury, which requires bringing up someone short term, who needs to adjust to MLB. Having this ’sixth man’ to Prevent Injuries seems a smarter approach. Wake, Hansack, Tavarez, Pauley, Masterson could all take this role. Those who can pitch 200 innings effectively, would do so. Those who can’t, wouldn’t. With Schill, we are already on our “sixth” pitcher. Why not incorporate a ’sixth man’ up front.
This applies elsewhere. Why limit Casey’s good bench bat to occasional use. Why not, up front, schedule (loosely) Youk and Lowell for 130 games, and Papi to 130-140. This keeps everyone rested, fresh and healthy. This will happen anyway, so why not build it in. This also gets Casey’s +/-.300 average in there for 300-400AB with pinch hitting. In this case, 4 works better and longer and stronger than 3.
Ditto for retaining Coco in a true 4-man OF. By building in rest of 30 – 35 games for Manny (hurt in 2007), Ellsbury (new), Drew (pray he stays healthy in his new found home), Coco would get 400AB, steals 25 – 30 bases (along with Ellsbury and Lugo), keep Manny and Drew healthy, mentor Ellsbury, and create, if possible, an improved and healthy OF, the best in MLB. Again, in the OF, 4 is better than 3.
We will know soon how the Lugo, Lowrie, Pedroia, Cora foursome works out, but you get the idea. . . . which is to maximize a solid bench and sixth man to prevent fatigue and related injuries and mistakes, and insure top performance from the entire team through October.
I wouldn’t mind a creative use of the outfield and active rest for Youk and Lowell would be good for the second half. But I think limiting Big Papi to 130-140 games is foolish. Unless he’s hurting there is no reason he should be playing around 150 games. The last four seasons he’s been in 150, 159, 151, and 149 games each year. I think scheduling a regular system of rest might not be bad, but I don’t think he should play any less than 150 games (if healthy).
Agree on both counts!
The number of games played by each would be based on so many variables, to be decided on the needs of each player, on how playing time influences each player’s long term health and performance.
It is the concept of preventive maintenance/preventive medicine to keep the team fresh and healthy during the long season and post-season. I am glad you agree with the concept. It’s just a formalized and enhanced use of what doesn’t need to be called the bench, a more subtle and sustainable use of platooning.
Who knows. It wasn’t that long ago that the concept of specialist relievers caught on, and the concept of closers developed within that genre. Perhaps this concept will lead to a whole new genre of “IF reliever” and “OF reliever” specialists, requiring better gloves and bats than currently available; making them integral and perhaps daily components of a team’s offense and defense strategies.