As the 2008 Boston Red Sox begin to gather in Fort Myers and the upcoming season becomes a very tangible experience for us all, it’s come time for those of us who choose to spend our free time hanging on every pitch to make some real judgments about our expectations.
At some point, you have to hang it all out there and cease living in the safe vacuum of analysis and reactions and make a prediction. I’ve looked at this team from every angle in the previous versions of “For Better or Worse” and now it’s come time to synthesize all that information into a cogent prognostication of the season that lies ahead of us.
For those of you new to “For Better or Worse”, who haven’t hung on my every word thus far, feel free to get caught up here:
- Installment 1: The Infield
- Installment 2: The Rest of the Position Players and Bench
- Installment 3: The Starting Rotation
- Installment 4: The Bullpen
There’s no such thing as perfection in baseball. The season is too long with too many individual items collectively making up the greater canvas that a season’s story is painted on. To that end, no team coming into a season has a roster without holes and no team coming into a season has a roster that won’t see turnover over the course of the season. But as it is with predictions, it’s not possible to foresee each of the potholes or surprises, both positive and negative, that lay ahead.
At the outset of a season, all you can do is look at the team as is currently constituted and make some general statements of expectation of performance. You can then look at the additive collection of those pieces and make some generalizations about where the overall team may or may not be headed over the next eight months.
My tactic to do this was to use 2007 individual performances as a baseline and see if I thought the 2008 versions of those players or positions would fall short of or exceed the performance from the year prior. With all that done, it’s time to put the pieces together and see where this team is likely to end up at the end of the season.
Looking back at the individual pieces, I expected an overall similar performance from the infield in 2008, saw the outfield as a group that we should expect significant increases in performance from at the plate, and the rest of the hitters (David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and the bench) not far off of 2007’s performances. In aggregate, I fully expect this offensive team to be better and more consistent than they were last year. The Red Sox scored a total of 867 runs in 2007. In my opinion I think it is very reasonable to expect this team to score 10 – 15 more runs in 2008 than they did in 2007.
Let’s compare that to years past and validate whether or not that is a realistic number to expect from this lineup in 2008 predicated for the most part on a much better season at the plate across the outfield with little net change elsewhere.
One thing that jumps out at you is how much a balanced lineup from one through nine increases the overall performance of an offense. Look at the production of the 2003 and 2004 offenses where the bottom of the lineup was Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek, and the likes of Mark Bellhorn, Kevin Millar, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Trot Nixon. Depth throughout a lineup is a deadly offensive force when coupled with table setters at the top and David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in the middle.
Put in the perspective of Red Sox teams past, I think it’s very fair to expect this team to score 880 or so runs this season.
But the lineup is only half the equation. Last year the pitching staff had the lowest team ERA in the American League with a 3.87 team ERA, giving up 42 less runs (657 total) than the next closest American League team, the Toronto Blue Jays.
Looking back on the 2007 season, the strengths of the Red Sox pitching staff are pretty apparent; a dominant season from their #1 starter Josh Beckett and a killer bullpen. The bullpen’s ERA ended the season at a microscopic 3.10 ERA, a franchise best since 1967.
Can the Red Sox duplicate that high level of performance on the mound in 2008? I don’t think so, but they won’t be a bad pitching team either. I played this one conservative and took into consideration that the Red Sox 2007 staff wasn’t 112 runs better than the 2004 staff. I am not sure how they pulled it off looking back on a season where Julian Tavarez started 23 games for you. So my gut tells me that luck had to go there way to some degree last season to keep those runs down.
Given that however, I totally expect the Red Sox staff to be one of the best 5 in the American League and can easily hover just around the 700 run level next season, giving them a staff equivalent to last years Blue Jays, Indians, or Twins. Not too shabby at all.
From my perspective, the biggest wild cards on the mound this season will be the rate of improvement of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester, the efficacy of the round robin of 5th starters they throw out until either Curt Schilling returns or Clay Buchholz takes over the spot permanently in the back half of the year, the health of Tim Wakefield, and the lack of a sophomore slump from Hideki Okajima. I could see any of these items swinging either towards the positive or the negative in 2008.
So with a better lineup and a less dominant pitching staff, where does that leave the Red Sox next season? In the chart above, I turned to Pythagorean Win Expectancy and plugged in my runs scored and runs against ballparks to settle in with 98 wins. You can also see Baseball Prospectus’ slightly more scientific run +/- predictions and outcome using PECOTA numbers.
Realistically, I think Pythagoras does us a bit wrong here and overestimates wins based on this input, but I do think that PECOTA short changes the team by a few wins. So for my final answer, “for better or worse”, I think the 2008 team is every bit as good as the 2007 version.
My gut: About the same. While Pythagoras has me at 98 wins, that feels aggressive, but I think back to back 96 win seasons and A.L. East banners sound pretty good to me. So mark it down. 96-66, 1st place in the American League East, 2nd best record in baseball behind the New York Mets.
Now let’s play some ball!
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The 2008 Red Sox ARE going to be better,… and as good as that analysis was, it overlooked the matter of developing team chemistry. This is where I think the Sox are going to excel in 2008. I mean, c’mon,…. they come back from 3-0 and 3-1,…. they win the 2-1 games,…. they find a way,… and this season they will only be more galvanized as a cohesive unit. These guys all seem to like each other,.. they have a major identity surge going now,.. and they’re all good at what they do. Team chemistry is a bigtime influence if you ask me,… It might even be worth those extra two wins.
Wonderful analysis. Even conservative estimates show the Sox winning the Pennant, which is what we want to hear, but your stats underpin the potential. I think your 98W is more correct.
Assumptions: More offense from LF, CF, RF, SS, Casey, to offset expected but certainly not inevitable leveling off by 3b, 2b, 1b.
Significant improvements over Romero, Pineiro, Gagne by Lester, Buckholz, Delcarmen.
Defense & baserunning remain positives and, if Coco stays as 4th man, improved.
Wild cards include possible significant contributions by Coco, Lowrie, Aardsma, Hansen, Masterson, Hansack, Breslow.
Keeping the team intact and adding Casey, Lowrie, enhances chemistry.
Even without Schill, this should be a another good year.
—A further observation,… predicting the Red Sox performance gets really scary if you base your predictions on everyone playing to their potential. I mean,… the Sox potentially have two 20-game winners,… two 40-HR hitters,… six .300+ hitters,… two guys stealing 30-40 bases,…. I’m sure those “conservative” projections are the smart thing to figure on,… but I still expect a few breakout seasons from some of the Sox this year.
i think we’re all drinking too much of the Nation’s koolaid …
C’mon Sean O, straighten us out!
Of course, I’m just as pessimistic…I’m just not showing it, for now.
Daniel, what exactly are you pessimistic about?
Ryne…was that directed at my predictions or at Mike’s comments?
Truthfully, I think the inputs to my model are very realistic. I do think that luck (good or bad) and a few outlier outcomes can swing Pythagorean standings one way or the other pretty easily. By Pythagorean account the Sox should have had 102 wins last year, not 96.
It would be safer to predict a range…and I think I would say 93-98 is very fair and 92-96 most likely.
OTG:
Remember, I’m the guy who thought the Sox would lose Game 7 of the ALCS when they were up by nine in the top of the 9th inning. (Yes, I’m loony that way sometimes.)
But specifically, I’m worried that Beckett could regress, Dice-K may not improve, Drew might stay mediocre, Ellsbury might turn into Juan Pierre, and Lowell might come back down to earth with a thud. Delcarmen might not become the elite setup man we need him to be, and Okajima could lose his deceptiveness. If all that happens, this is an 85-win team — and that won’t win the East.
Now I realize that the odds of all of those things coming together are slim, but…well, you’re talking to a guy who’s seldom optimistic about anything related to baseball, and especially the Sox.
All that said, I’m seeing 95-67.
There we go Daniel…join me on the ledge with a prediction. Who else wants to come out here with us?
— I’ll come out on the ledge, but I tend to be slightly more optimistic,… and I don’t think it’s all due to my devoted-fan status. It’s true that Lowell could come back down to earth,…. but also very probable that Manny will have a big rebound year. Contract year. Manny and Papi will combine for 75 HR. Pedroia may not be able to duplicate his big numbers,… but Ellsbury is a contact hitter and a hard man to throw out. .300 from Ellsbury and continual bedevilment of opposing pitchers and defenses on the basepaths. Youk will be the big story,…. with Casey spelling him at first, I see his early 2007 hitting surge and his late 2007 power surge coming together in a real breakout season (Ok, it’s my “gut” feeling) I see Youk at .300+ with 25 HR and 100 RBI. Call me crazy,…..
As for the rotation, I don’t see Beckett falling off, and I do see a slightly improved Dice-K. Lester and Buchholz hold the key, and they should benefit from increased offensive production. I’ve said this before,… if the Red Sox are sending up a first inning batting order of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Papi and Manny,… then Boston is going to score more first inning runs than anyone else,…. and pitching with a lead is the way to put a jolt into your starters. 98 wins ought to be safe,… but I could see more, frankly. It’s that team chemistry I spoke of earlier,…. This year, the Sox have it bigtime,….
Mike, I wholeheartedly agree that leaving Ellsbury at leadoff is a key. A couple of 70+ year old fanatic Sox fans told me he reminds them most of Dom Dimaggio. He gets on and he can fly.
If Jacoby continues to get on alot, followed by a second great leadoff hitter Dustin, then Papi, Manny, Mikey and Youk, these 6 +/-.300 hitters plus power (125HR?) will produce early runs as often as not. Having the other team frazzled and in catch-up mode is a good thing. This really could be a fun year . . . though I still really, really wish we had a Street or Qualls or . . . behind Pap.
If we do repeat, then can we start saying that Francona + Theo = Belichick + Pioli = Greatest Dynasty/Era in the history of each franchise?
Sorry Sean, but I would hate to be you now rooting for the Sox and knowing that such success would make much of what you have said seem kinda silly. Theo is a great GM, and almost every team in the league wishes they had someone as good. Every time we win another title proves the point.
Here’s hoping we win a ton of them.
Daniel, if most of that stuff happened, we’d still be in good shape. If Daisuke doesn’t improve, he’s still a solid #3 starter in the AL East. If Lowell comes back to earth there’s a good chance his production could be made up by a healthy Ortiz and Manny. If Delcarmen doesn’t turn into an elite set up man, we still have one of the most elite number 8 and 9 inning pitchers in all of baseball. If Okajima suddenly become hittable, there’s a good chance Delcarmen could fill in for him. If not the Sox could make a deal, these aren’t the Rays we’re talking about.
I don’t know why you’d expect Ellsbury to be Juan Pierre either. Ellsbury’s been consistently better than Pierre throughout his career. He can actually hit for great average and has very good plate discipline. Plus, he’s got more power than Pierre ever had.
I find it as likely that we’ll win 85 games next year about as it is likely that we’ll win the next two World Series.
I made it clear that most won’t. I’m just contending that even if 4-5 postion players out of that list make it (I think Kalish/Lars/Tejeda are very strong bets) on a team with the second highest payroll then they will be in good shape. They will have several cost controlled years and the ability to move other prospects for players or sign UFA’s in coming years. Your contention that Theo has no long-term plans is off base imo.
So if everything goes wrong, we still win 90 games. Sean O, you just made me feel even better about this team.
No, if everything goes wrong, we’re an 82 win team. If Beckett misses more time than I expect, or if Papi gets injured, we become a pretty rough looking team. Hell, if Paps has shoulder difficulty at all, then MDC becomes our closer, with the hope that Okaji can repeat his ‘07 performance instead.
I’d say a pretty typical set of circumstances (Lowell goes back to mediocrity, Beckett, Pedroia and the bullpen regress a little, offset by marginal improvements by Drew) we’re a 90 win team. Who knows.
And yes, before anyone says anything, I am bitter we didn’t get any new toys this offseason. I wish I was drinking the koolaid on Jacoby and Lester, but I can’t help but think in 2012 we’ll look back and feel like idiots for holding onto them. Lester ain’t making the all star team any time soon, and Jacoby will be overvalued for his entire career compared to his true performance.
Buchholz, we’re counting on you, as the one prospect (not counting Lowrie) who I really love. Give ‘em hell.
OTG:
I think Sean O is contagious. But I’ve always been pretty pessimistic when it comes to the Sox. So considering that I said 95-67…well, that means I’m feeling pretty good about this squad.
90-72, since i’ve been mentioned in 4 different posts. I think we’ll be in the thick of things all year, and could manage a wild card spot if the tigers and indians really beat the heck out of each other.
My concerns are the future, where Theo has shown 0 interest in longterm solutions to problems. Ellsbury is nobody’s solution to anything, especially when you have Coco on the bench. Praying that Manny Ramirez can defy time is foolishness, and the second the season starts every one of our major trade chips loses a giant chunk of his value.
Lowell can’t hit, Pedroia will suffer a (moderate, not tremendous) sophomore slide, and I highly doubt Beckett repeats his performance. So, we’re hoping that Matsuzaka can put it together, Drew and Lugo can do better than they have (what do the theo backers say about these moves?), and manny hits like he’s 30 again to counteract some heavy decline.
Here’s hoping. I’d feel a hell of a lot more confident if we had Cabrera or Santana instead of a fourth starter and juan pierre.
—I don’t understand the reluctance on the part of a lot of folks to just consider Buchholz the fifth starter, with Tavarez occasionally making a spot start to afford some rest to both Bucholz and Lester. Buchholz has the right stuff to contribute right now,… if “on-the-job” training doesn’t work out, then another course can be adopted. But I think it will work out.
—By a similar token, I could see Crisp spelling each outfielder one day per week,… providing a late-inning defensive sub for Manny,.. pinch hitting and pinch running,… and returning fulltime to the OF if something should happen to DH Ortiz and Manny gets shifted into the DH role. Crisp would certainly get in a lot more gametime than an ordinary bench player,….it would be an elaborate platoon system, in fact. The Red Sox could break a lot of new ground this season if they use their depth to maximum advantage.
Sean, I thought you’ve said Manny would have a big year this year?
“My concerns are the future, where Theo has shown 0 interest in longterm solutions to problems.”
What about not dealing prospects…We have several options that should be knocking at the door at every position within 2-3 years. While some will not work out, some will.
3B – Middlebrooks, Almanzar
2b – Ryan Dent
ss – Lowrie, Tejeda, Diaz
C – Wagner, Weeden
1b – Lars Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron bates
CF – Lin, Kalish
OF – Reddick, Mailman, Moss, Place
P – Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, K. Johnson, Britton,
I think showing a committment to developing prospects and spending over recommended slots in the draft and getting top international free agents shows a commitment to the future. Sure you didn’t like the Lowell signing but what were the other options?…Middlebrooks and Almanzar should be ready in three to four years when Lowell is done…Youkilis could slide over to third if necessary if Lars Anderson is ready to take over first in 2009/2010. Tejeda looks like a potential stud at short…sure in two years there may be a transition stage where Manny leaves and Ortiz is getting less productive and these kids are on the cusp but there is time to evaluate these kids and other players become available. To say he has shown zero interest in long-term solutions is b.s.
While Theo has made some bad moves he has made some good ones as well…and a team with a deep farm system and a huge budget should do well long-term as long as the right pieces are kept.
Jared-
How many of those moves will work out? In a perfect world, every one of our prospects becomes a major leaguer. But, look at Eric Duncan on the Yankees. He went from 3B of the future to AA scrub in 2 years.
You hold onto prospects that you are convinced will do well, like a Buchholz. But when the perceived value of a player such as Lester and Ellsbury won’t remotely ever possibly match their production, that’s when you trade those chips in for a (near) sure thing. Santana and Cabrera are not sure things, but is there a pitcher or hitter you’d consider a better investment?
When these players don’t work out, because that’s how it goes in baseball, we have nothing. If Theo were proactive instead of reactive, we’d have a dramatically better major league club for the next half-decade with no negative impact on the farm.
As for Manny, I hope he comes back big, and since it’s Manny Ramirez I’d say there’s a pretty good chance. But Theo’s refusal to plan for the worst case scenario (yet again) means we’re up a crick if he doesn’t.
Maybe he is preparing for the worse case scenairo? Maybe he think this year is going to be a wash. We should be able to back into the playoffs but really anything better than that is a plus. Maybe this is a rebuilding year? Maybe this is the year that Theo is trying to get out from under all these bad old contracts while still giving it one last go with this team? Tek, Schill, Manny, Timlin, and Wake could all be gone this time next year. Maybe Theo is planning to replace those guys next year when we need to instead of doing it this year and overpay. Call me crazy but I am completely viewing this season as a nothing. It is a chance to play for this year while plan for the future.
Dave-
Replace them with who? Free agency is not a solution any more. If he is honestly hoping to replace Tel, Schilling, Manny, Timlin, and Wakefield in one offseason, he’s insane. When you get into a situation like that, you end up overpaying out of necessity, which is what we’ve done with Edgar, Seabass and Lugo over the past few years.
You need to attain value when it is available, and act on it, not react to things going wrong. Let’s say we do manage to trade for pieces that will fix all of those holes, then our high upside farm system will be dust.
Meanwhile, a star 3b in Cabrera for a decade to come, and a guaranteed #1/#2 for 7 years in Santana means you can afford mediocrity at those positions. Hoping that the insanely young Tejeda pans out perfectly is not what I like to hear.
–Sean, I don’t understand your dismissiveness towards Jacoby,…… With his speed, just making contact will put up quite a few basehits that other players wouldn’t get,..and he seems to be a contact hitter. And speed doesn’t have slumps. I’m most disappointed that he didn’t draw more walks,… but batting over .350 makes that a forgiveable issue. Another perspective: If Ellsbury had been called up for only,… say,.. 15 games,… and he hit .350,… I’d be more likely to say “fluke.” But counting postseason, Ells played the equivalent of a quarter-season. Gives his numbers and his perceived potential a lot more credibility. And finally, you get an idea of his ability just through his demeanor and mannerisms. The kid is convincing. I predict he’ll top .300 BA with no trouble, and he’ll light a fire under the rest of the lineup.
Mike-
I don’t care about BA or speed, because neither appreciably helps a team win. I’d take .220/.380/.500 over .330/.380/.440 any day. Jacoby’s upside seems to be a .320/.370/.430 player, which is a roughly average center fielder. For him to provide us more value than as a Santana / Cabrera trade chip, he’d have to become Sizemore, with a .300/.400/.500 line, which has a 0% chance of happening.
Jacoby has absolutely no power whatsoever. Yes, he played a quarter of a season, but Lowell had an entire fluke year of BABIP. Jacoby is the type of player that will get a ton of articles written about him, without providing the OBP or ISO we require.
I don’t care if a player steals 100 bases if he can’t crack a .450 SLG, especially when we could’ve received a franchise player in return. He will not be like Hanley.
If *only* Hanley and Jacoby had been switched temporally, then we could’ve kept the real prospect and sent our Juan Pierre for Beckett.
He is much better then Juan Pierre although he is overrated by many. Either way his defense wil be close to Crisp’s and he’ll be a better hitter. Speed does help quite a bit at the top of the order if the hitter can maintain a good obp, especially when it is placed in front of 3 .300 hitters …not talking about stolen bases necessarily but the ability to get an extra base. If Pedroia ran like Ellsbury that would have resulted in quite a few more runs over the course of the year…perhaps changing the outcome of 3-4 games. Speed to me is a great asset but not at the expense of putting a low obp guy at the top of the order…like Crisp or Lugo. If Ellsbury can get on at a .360 – .370 clip I will be happy with him leading off. Also I think he’ll hit 10-12 home runs…which isn’t much but more then Crisp. I know there is no track record to suggest that but he has a good build to add a few pounds (which he apparently has) and I think he will devlop decent enough power for a speedy lead-off type.
For the record, I was for the Cabrera trade. I’m not extremely upset we didn’t do it but had i been in charge I would have pulled the trigger.
I still think trading for Santana was stupid. Maybe Bedard or Haren but that wouldn’t have worked since the O’s would never have traded with us and the A’s wanted too much. Santana for Lester/Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson would have been the worse move in Theo’s history assuming we signed him to the contract he is getting from the Mets.
—Jacoby’s OBP was pretty well up there for his quarter-season. Whether or not he will develop better ability to truly drive the ball is a question,.. agreed. He’s bulking up and doing strength training,….. so developing that ability is definitely part of his plan. I can project 15 homers from him, with about a .310 BA and OBP around .380. 35 SB. But these are only stats. I like to think in terms of the subjective imponderables with Ellsbury in the game. Thanks to his speed, he messes up opposing infield’s attempts to position themselves correctly,… he kills a lot of DP’s,…. he screws up the opposing outfield’s routine about which base to throw to or where to hit a cutoff man. And pitchers have to worry about the steal,……if Ells hasn’t already stretched a bloop single into a double. I certainly hope that JE gets that .380 OBP or more,…. because baserunning is where he’s going to prove to be a real fan favorite. And maybe fielding, too,…. who knows? But at any rate, I just think the kid has star quality of a different dimension (and you can’t say for sure that he doesn’t)… Everything in life is a calculated risk, eh? I’m willing to give Ellsbury that opportunity. Maybe the odds are against it, but if he DID pick up anywhere close to where he left off last season, he could have quite a season, indeed. Multiply last season by four. The Red Sox know what it’s like for a rookie to excel right away,….. Fred Lynn, eh? But I think we at least have the basis for an honorable disagreement, Sean,… and I hardly discount your admonishment for caution. I have what we shall have to call an “intuitive gut feeling” that Ells is gonna make a big impression on the way that the Red Sox have traditionally played the game,… an impression that does not portend well for the opposition. 98 wins.
JaredK & Sean,
Jared’s rundown of up and comers from the farm system, 2-3 years out, presents an entirely new team with choices at each position, in 2010. This group looks competitive, even if just half of them make it.
In reality, if everything stays the same and we make no trades at all, by 2010 -11 we would still not rely on that group very much, as we would still have Pedroia, Ellsbury, Coco, Youk, Becket, Daisuke, Buckholz, Lester, Pauley, Papelbon, MDC, Hansen, Aardsma all hovering @+/- 30 years old in their prime . . . and Papi, Drew, Julio, Oki, Corey, Breslow, Snyder, Lopez, Hansack starting to think about their retirement @ +/- 35 . . . with Manny, Tek, Casey and maybe even Wake finally hanging it up.
This team, as is, has several good years left and, without making another trade, can replenish itself as needed from an exceptional MiLB system . . . unless we trade it all away.
I am NOT advocating no more trades or top free agent signings; and I know that Santana and Cabrera could have made us better. But not making those trades doesn’t mean Theo isn’t planning ahead. He has $150M and some trading chips to make a move when needed. IMO, it hasn’t truly been needed.
Finally, alot of us simply believe in our new farm system, and look forward to seeing just what kind of improvements Santana/Cabrera trade bait like Buckholz, Lester, Masterson, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Moss and perhaps Bowden can have on an already championship team, some time this year. If they succeed, then we have every reason to believe that during the next 3 – 4 years, the next groups to climb through the MiLB filter should keep us on top.
–Agreed, Gerry,…….. the Red Sox are set to compete for a few more years. Gonna have to come up with a catcher and a 3rd baseman for sure,… maybe an OF, as well,…. but for the most part, the Sox do as well as can be expected at growing their own. If only Lowrie and Masterson emerge successfully from the farms, then that will be a major input. If anything, it would apear that the rotation is better fixed long-term than the actual lineup, although Pedroia, Youk and Ellsbury provide a good “core” and Papi could continue DH’ing for another five years. Theo may be able to breathe easier this year, no doubt,… the 2008 Sox are even better than the WS team. Two years down the road is when the challenges will crop up.