For the first time since 2001, the Red Sox may have developed their own franchise first-baseman.
During yesterday’s ESPN/Baseball America chat with Jim Callis, Callis revealed that his No. 1 first-base prospect in the minor leagues is none other than Boston’s Lars Anderson.
He ranks Anderson ahead of Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, Washington’s Chris Marrero, Oakland’s Daric Barton and Texas’ Chris Davis.
With Youkilis entering his age 29 season and Mike Lowell likely not surviving as the Red Sox’s third baseman past his contract year of 2010, this news comes as a breath of fresh air, knowing we have a young corner infielder that can step in and provide some offense for when Mike Lowell moves on from this grand game.
Make no mistake, offense is what Anderson is known for. He represents perhaps the only legitimate power-hitting prospect in the minor leagues (unless you count Jason Place) and SoxProspects.com compares him to Adam LaRoche. LaRoche’s career high is 32 homeruns, .285/.354/.561, set in 2006 with the Braves. He had a terrible first half with the Pirates in 2007 but rebounded in the second half.
The scary thing is that the 20-year old could have a ceiling even higher than LaRoche. Anderson has tremendous plate discipline (hit .288/.385/.443 for Greenville last year) and Callis has said he sees Anderson as a future regular 40-homer hitter in his career. He may be the answer to the growing concerns about the Sox’s lack of power in the system.
The power issue is certainly growing as Manny Ramirez enters the last guaranteed year of his contract and David Ortiz only gets older and seems to have developed various nagging maladies over the last couple of years.
While the Red Sox will always be able to be aggressive and sign free agents who can hit homeruns, developing those prospects can also be a welcome relief, especially when you can plan them out for the future instead of crossing your fingers that players don’t sign extensions or sustain long-lasting injuries. Case in point: Excepting Ramirez and Varitek, no major player will be a free agent for at least two more years. Barring trades, this team that won the 2007 World Series will remain together through 2010. If Manny’s options are picked up and Varitek resigns, we will be getting very used to this team — but the team will continue to age.
That’s where a player like Anderson becomes valuable, because he should be more than ready to contribute once 2010 rolls around. Perhaps we let Mike Lowell leave as a free agent and shift Youkilis to third. Perhaps we make a trade after the 2009 season to open a spot up for Anderson. There’s lots of possibilities, but one is obvious: having Lars Anderson makes future decisions a lot easier.
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Youuuuk!
Ah Red Sox baseball is in the air, I’m back from my winter-long hiatus. What’s the word on the newsfront? Will Sean Casey be this year’s version of Eric Hinske? I expect him to play a lot more but with Youk and Lowell in the corners, when will his get his at-bats?
Papelbon for Cy Young, you heard it here first.
I started alluding to this in the article, but I wanted to hold off on diving into the topic and stick to Lars, but…
The conversation was started here about the future of the Red Sox.
I have to say, if we have the same principal players in 2009 and 2010 as we do now, I’ll be disappointed. Sure, Lugo could get a lot better, but Lowell is only going to regress. Nothing against him, but age happens.
I think you’re going to see Bowden, Masterson make appearances in a Red Sox uniform but out of those two plus Buchholz/Lester, I would be very surprised if all four, or even three, were still with the Red Sox by 2010/2011. I expect two, perhaps even three of that group, to be traded to bolster our offense.
The best thing about Lars is all of his power currently is to the opposite field…he has not learned how to pull with power yet. Once he is able to use his power to turn on the inside fastball his power #’s are going to jump. There going to jump anyways in Lancaster so I am eager to see him learn this facet and see how he does in Portland either at the end of this year and/or next year.
“a breath of fresh air” is right on the money. Today, on The Bottomline, I talked about Manny and what is absence in the line up does to the Sox.
And as you mentioned, the Sox aren;t getting any older… I think we’re gonna see this top ranked farm system put to the test over the next few years – but I’m excited as hell about it!
Just wanted to take this space and thank Evan for the opportunity of writing for Fire Brand over the past few months. As with most writers here, the “real world” thing kept me too busy to make meaningful contributions here.
Maybe I’ll be able to sneak in a guest column or something in the future! :) I’ll still be lurking around the community, too. Thanks again Evan!
Fourth writer for Fire Brand = Drummer for Spinal Tap.
Ha, best comment i’ve seen in a long time.
Haha Sean O: Classic.
I think Tim’s going to be around for a good long while, though. No more adds: Me, Zach, Tim, Shawn (returning for game recaps inseason).
Hope to see you around soon, Ryne!
Don’t hate
Thanks Ryne. You kept it focused on the game and the players of the game.
Evan, I am greatful for Lars Anderson, Kalish, Moss, Lowrie and others coming up. We do need more power, (but not at the expense of our young pitching phenoms).
IMO, while several of our guys will face age-related regression by 2010, when power outages are predicted, there are some questions which may make this prediction less ominous. Consider:
1. How long can Manny play at a high level without season ending injuries? 2, 3, 4, 5 years? At 40, in 2012, could he still hit +/-.300/370/450 with 25+HR? If he wanted to, probably. He wouldn’t be the first. And what would we pay for a young FA with those #’s? For Manny, age may be irrelevant. Manny correctly sees himself as a Ted Williams redux, with Franco staying power, and is working hard to get #24 up there beside Ted’s #9. Two of Williams last three +/-40 year old seasons were pretty awesome, despite injuries. Instead of counting Manny out, IF HE IS HEALTHY AND BACK TO FORM, consider taking this wonderful ride to the end, and extend him for something like 4/60 or 5/70, incentivized. Who wouldn’t prefer a team with Manny and Papi healthy and hitting for as long as possible. If they can, our power outage assumptions are premature. The solution, then, would be to find ways to keep them strong, and build around them with Anderson et al, This would improve power, wins, and the joy of watching. There is no reason to bring down the curtain before Manny plays it out.
2. Papi, like Drew and Lugo, is 32. Assuming good health, and limiting his time to DH, when might he regress to, say, .300/400/500 with 30HR? In 2014 or 2016?? Never? Who knows.
It is possible, then, to assume that Papi and Manny could, together, for 4 – 5 more years, produce at still high levels. For this, we would need to anticipate down-time, and buttress them with a strong supporting cast, which happens to be rising up from MiLB.
3. If Drew can reproduce his early and postseason 2007 #’s in 2008, and stay healthy, he is a good bet to keep going through 2011 – 12. If not, Moss, Kalish, Reddick and Place are waiting in line, and all can hit, and all have equivalent power.
4. Youk, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lowrie, Moss each appear ready to hit 10 – 20HR annually for another 10 years. Perhaps 80 from this group in 2011-12?
5. The Captain’s protege and backup will both have to hit. That’s the law. That is Theo’s challenge in 2009.
6. What could Anderson and Reddick add to this projected team of .300 hitters? 50 or 60HR, for a team total of about 200? In 2011 this team would hit for average +OBP+power+pitching+D. Same formula as today . . . by augmenting, rather than replacing.
Here’s a possible scenario for 2011, which might be as good as any, a very famiiar group: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Anderson, Papi/Carter, Manny/Kalish, Youk, Drew/Reddick, Lowrie/Diaz, Catcher. (Becket, Buckholz, Daisuke, Lester, Masterson, Bowden, Hagadone, Wakefield. Why not.)
This team would have MORE power, better Av/OBP/SLG, and better pitching than 2007, though fewer SB.
And the team would essentially be set through 2017, when the next generation is having this discussion about replacing 34 – 37 year old Ellsbury, Pedroia, Moss, Lowrie, Youk, Daisuke, Buckholz, Lester, Papelbon, MDC, Hansen, Breslow, etc., and maybe Wake, with kids who are now in Jr. High. And so it goes.
Callis has had a hard-on for Anderson for a while, and I think his hype of Anderson is a little irrational. While the projection is certainly there, I think Anderson has been overrated because he has yet to put up any performance that would indicate that he is a good bet to hit 30-40 homers in the big leagues like Callis thinks. While he is young, slugging .446 is not incredibly impressive for a first baseman that is supposed to have big-time power. If he were at another position that would be more impressive, but first base doesn’t have a lot of positional value, so the offensive expectations are higher. It’ll be interesting to see how he does next season in the hitter’s paradise that is Lancaster.
Eric, as I mentioned in my post above (#3) most of his homeruns have gone to the opposite field…he has not found his stroke pulling the ball yet. The ability to hit homeruns to the opposite field with regularity shows real power potential. That being said it is likely easier to teach or work with a left-hander how to pull then to hit the other way. I think that combined with his build, swing and patience at the plate is where the projection comes in…it is not uncommon for a player to put up more power #’s as they progress through the minors or even to the majors. As you point out it creates an intersting situation in Lancaster where you can’t really interpet the #’s that he will put up…I’m just hoping to see him learn to turn on inside pitches and look forward to seeing him in Portland end of year or next year.
First, I think you are wrong Eric. It isn’t just his projectablity it has been his numbers. He put up very good numbers in his first pro season. A .450 SLG season is not an awful thing in the larger scheme of things. He has one of the best swings I have seen in years. When you combine the age, his mechanics, potential growth, and current abilities to rank him as a top 2 1st baseman is not crazy. People like KG are insane because they overrate minor league power. Power is probably the easiest thing for a player to develop over time.
Second, for all this talk of having a fully homegrown team with the likes of Kalish, Reddick, Lowrie, Moss, Carter, Hagadone, Bowden, Anderson ect I think everyone should take a step back. It is completely unrealistic to expect all these kids to pan out. If 4 of the 8 players I listed above pan out i’d be extermely happy. The general rule of thumb is for every 1st round draft pick 1 is a star, 1 is average, and 1 is a bust. The same general rule works for prospects. Just go back to the Top 100 lists and you’ll see it litered with great potential. Hell, look at a kid that grew up one town over from me, Jeff Allison. Top 10 pick out of High School but within 2 years of that he was broke and out of baseball. I watched a game between Allison and Antonelli a couple years back and if you gave me a million dollars I would have never said Antonelli was going to be a pro second baseman and Allison was going to do nothing with his career. Prospects are a fickle thing.
Dave. your statement that power is the easiest thing for a player to develop over time confirms what others contend: that Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lowrie and Youk could have increasingly better power numbers, while retaining their OBP and defense. If so, this could contribute another 20HR to the lineup in terms of the anticipated power void.
As Moss, Carter, Reddick, Place (and Anderson) already show good power, and if any of them make it to MLB, this would bode well on this issue.
Assuming that only half of our top prospects make it to Fenway, and some are used in trades, our farm system will, indeed, keep us in post-season for years.