MVN: Most Valuable Network

Spring Training always gives me writer's block. After the season preview is written, you usually have the luxury of a trade to analyze, a new player to give an opinion and forecast of, or a position battle to take a side on.

But with the 2008 Boston Red Sox, you really don't have much of any of that and I refuse to give thoughtful analysis of two inning outings from our starting pitchers or get all excited about a handful of at bats of questionable merit. If you are in Fort Myers, you have the pulse of the team and the menial activity of the day to report on. But sitting in a snow-ridden New Hampshire, it's hard to be captured by the feel of the Fort.

So with writer's block in full effect, I reached out to the Internet to give me something to write about. And thanks be to Twitter and Twitter-er user warrenss as within minutes of posing my desperate question, a response formed in the bits of zeros and ones and tiny little data packets coalesced on my screen.

"What do we do if J.D. Drew continues to suck?"

Ahh, a challenge. My first reaction was; Is Drew likely to continue to suck? and then; What do the Red Sox need out of Drew for him to have value greater than that which is described as "suck"?

I immediately looked back to my "Better or Worse" projections for my visceral gut reaction.

Drew had significant troubles in 2007 finding his place in Boston and with American League pitching. The big issue coming into the season was would Drew hold up physically? Well, 140 games played says yes. But no one expected Drew would pound one ground ball after another to the second baseman. He hit a measly .270 with only 11 home runs and 64 RBI. Not what you expect from your “#5 hitter”.

My gut: Better. He can’t really be worse can he? I think he’ll learn from his first year in Boston. He’ll likely start in the 6 hole of the lineup, although I think he’s made to bat in the 2 spot. We know he’ll get on base. I think he’ll get more hits this year with an average more like .285. He’ll be more productive with his power as well with about 20 home runs and better run production depending on where he sits in the order.

Wow, I almost have myself convinced. But does my gut forecast stand up to a more rigorous analysis? Was last year the beginning of a declining trend as the likes of Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA would have you believe?

Looking at the PECOTA projections for Drew, it still boggles my mind that Theo and the dream team signed him to the term and dollar amount that they did. He's got as much a chance this year as collapsing (32%) as improving (28%) and that trend only gets worse over time. Ouch!

But more concretely, lets make some hypotheses as to; Why did J.D. struggle in 2007? and How does he reverse the trend in 2008?

To answer these questions, I like to look at hit charts and type of batted ball distributions and where I can, trend those over the season to see what jumps out. So thanks to great resources like Fan Graphs and MLB.com all of that information is right at our finger tips.

Right off the bat, we can see that 2007 was a bad year at the plate for Drew. No surprise there. However, what jumps out at you is how awful he was for so long at the beginning of the season and how he trended back towards a more natural position per his career batting average (albeit, slightly lower than previous years). So which J.D. Drew might we expect in 2008? The "awful, sucky" Drew or the "consistent, professional hitter" Drew we expected? To answer that, we really need to look at what actually was the driving force behind his resurgence at the plate.

While the signal to noise ratio on this graph is pretty low (i.e. alot of noise), I wanted to point out the spread between amount of fly balls and ground balls early in the year and the closing of that gap when he was hitting the ball better towards the end of the season. As Drew became a more productive hitter, he hit more balls in the air and less balls on the ground. Hmmm.

So, what on earth does that tell us. Well, looking at the Batted Ball Batting Stats in the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2008, it becomes interesting to note that while many of productivity stats against batted ball types are comparable to league average, in 2007, Drew's productivity on fly balls was better than league average. Only 73% of his fly balls turned into outs vs. a league average of 83% and runs created per fly ball was .25 vs. a league average of .18. And all that fly ball production with a declining rate of home runs per outfield fly. More hmmmm.

So where do we go from here? We all know that Fenway Park has both a mental effect on hitters' approaches to their at bats and a physical effect on batted balls in play (i.e. the wall ball single or Monster home run). But can we deduce anything from batted ball distribution for Drew last year vs. 2006 when he played his home games at Dodger Stadium and had a better overall season?

Here's a graph of Drew's hit chart for ground balls and singles at home in Dodger Stadium in 2006.

And that same graph for 2007 at Fenway Park. Very similar, outside of more ground outs in 2007 than years past (I am sure we can all remember pounding our heads into the table at the sight of another lazy ground out to second base).

Now let's look at those same graphs for extra base hits and fly outs.

2006 at Dodger Stadium showed a nice distribution of fly balls across the outfield with power to right and the ability to shoot the ball the opposite way to left field or pull it down the first base line for a double.

And now Fenway Park in 2007. Look at the distribution of fly ball outs shifting towards the wall and the lack of "pull" power. This distribution suggests a different approach at the plate mentally than Drew had in the past. That type of mental change can be a hurdle that a player needs to overcome as a season progresses. Could his better second half of 2007 signify an adjustment that will carry over to 2008?

Back to our friend "warrenss" question: "Will J.D. Drew continue to suck?" I really don't think so. I am going to stick to my gut and fly in the face of projections systems like PECOTA and Zips.  I fully expect Drew to be a .275 - .280 hitter with 15-20 home runs, and overall higher production levels in 2008.

Of course, warrenss' challenge didn't end with J.D. Drew. This damn Internet is never satisfied.

"One more related question: Should the Sox trade Coco (or keep him as Drew insurance) and what should they get for him?"

Of course, I can't be expected to answer everything. So while I will give you a quick opinion, I leave it to the comments section to speculate and prognosticate. I'll take the best of the best and formulate a post born out of that collective wisdom for my Friday column.

So, (a) Should the Sox trade Coco Crisp? (b) What should they look for him in return? (c) Is the outfield complete without him as #4?