MVN: Most Valuable Network

It’s certainly a relief knowing the Red Sox will be playing the rest of their regular season games in the States. This wacky beginning of the season for the World Champs will get even wackier Saturday night at the LA Coliseum where the Sox and Dodgers face off staring at a left field wall 60 feet high and 201 feet from home plate. Soon after three exhibitions, the ridiculous start continues in Oakland and Toronto before heading some to meet the Detroit Tigers. There are a few lingering thoughts following the two games with the A’s in the Tokyo Dome.

One, our two starters that most often encounter control lapses showed the issue could continue throughout another campaign. This observation comes with the obvious disclaimers that 1) they were pitching on the other side of a world in a March regular season game and 2) once the pressure of the first two innings decreased, Matsuzaka was able to settle down. Still, it remains a concern heading into April. Also, David Aardsma impressed, Papelbon was shaky and Manny is going to have a tremendous season in his motivated state.

And another thing: Jason Varitek went 0 for 8 with six strikeouts. He looked flat out awful.

Before we all jump off bridges panicking about our catcher this season, remember first what Varitek brings the table. He does an outstanding job with the pitching staff preparing for games (it almost seems like he spends more time on that than himself), is the outspoken and veteran leader of the clubhouse every single day, and is still ranked as a top defensive catcher in baseball. The first two innings blocking every errant Matsuzaka pitch can back that up. The fact each pitcher praise Varitek after a quality start is no coincidence.

Conversely, anyone that is concerned about Varitek this year has definite reason to be. He is a 36-year old catcher with plenty of mileage on his legs and has shown incredibly declining bat speed over the last two seasons in a Red Sox uniform. (I’m not basing this article on just those eight at-bats; that would be incredibly stupid and the ultimate example of ignoring sample size.) When rumors of a two year, $20 million extension surfaced this off-season, fans felt very apprehensive about the possibility.

Still, I believe this issue is an overreaction. Varitek, along with the reasons I mentioned above, is very valuable to the team. Also, he’s not as pathetic with the bat as people may think. Among the 12 AL catchers with 300+ AB in 2007, Varitek ranked fourth in OPS behind Martinez, Posada and Mauer, and fourth in on-base percentage. MLB catchers had an average .712 OPS last season and contributed nearly 11 runs below an average MLB hitter per 600 plate appearances, while Varitek at a .787 OPS was almost seven runs above an average MLB catcher. He ranked fifth among catchers in VORP.

It’s important to talk about Varitek in context with other players at his position before we make a judgment. The catching situation in all of baseball is rather bare, and in the Red Sox farm system it’s almost non-existent (a Coco for Teagarden swap is a pipe dream, right?). Unless Kottaras can build on his rejuvenated spring and have a big year in Pawtucket, what other options do we have? Face it: We’re probably stuck with Varitek for the next two seasons, at the very least. He’s not a bad player to be “stuck” with.

According to PECOTA’s always conservative rankings, Varitek will hit .255/.352/.420 this season, amounting to a .772 OPS, just 15 points below his 2007 numbers. For a 36-year old catcher, that small decline would be gladly accepted by Red Sox fans. Factor in the idea that Varitek could be pushed down to the 8-hole in the lineup and you do not have much of a problem for the entire 2008 campaign.

(One tangent here: Theo has done plenty of tremendous things for the organization, but I’d be willing to bet one decision he would like to reverse is dealing Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Both of these backup catchers are more than formidable and relatively cheap/young. You could argue that the presence of Tim Wakefield, for all the good he does, has hindered this entire process.)

While those eight at-bats and an entire off-season of concern over the production of our captain leads most to believe he’ll be a black hole in the 2008 lineup, all you have to do is judge him in the context of other catchers, factor the intangibles and allow Tek to put up his .770 OPS in peace.