Hey Guys! Bottom Line Rob here… Through out March I chimed in on Wednesdays to give you my two cents on the latest Red Sox rumblings. As we move into the 2008 season, I’ll be checking in on Sundays – but you can catch me every day at The Bottom Line Blog. See you there… and Go Sox!
The American League is full of Cy Young Candidates: Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Eric Bedard… but many of those superstar pitchers have a partner in the No. 2 spot that gives their team a scary 1-2 punch. Having that 1-2 punch at the top of your rotation can be the key to a successful season and a shot at a Championship…
So who has the best 1-2 punch in the American League? Let’s take a look…
Boston Red Sox
Josh Beckett — 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K
Daisuke Matsuzaka — 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K
Josh Beckett is starting the season on the DL due to a tweaked back, but he seems ready to make a start in Totonto next week or pitch the home Opener on April 8th. He was the only 20 game winner in 2007 and was untouchable in the postseason. With Curt Schilling out, Daisuke Matsuzaka emerged as the No. 2 starter and won 15 games in his first year in America.
Bottom Line: Both pitchers have the stuff to win 20 games this season. With a year of experience and a growing relationship with his teammates, Matsuzaka is poised to improve on his 2007 numbers, but his first start of 2008 showed us that he still struggles with one-inning meltdowns and continues to dance around batters rather than challenge them. Beckett is in the prime of his career and, despite the injury, seems ready to repeat his stellar 2007 season.
Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia — 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 209 K
Fausto Carmona — 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 137 K
Sabathia beat out Beckett and his fellow 19-game winner Carmona for the 2007 Cy Young Award. The hefty lefty will turn 28 this July, but with over 1400 innings already under his belt and a 290 lb. frame, one has to wonder how long it will take for the Cleveland ace to run into injury trouble. That said he’s won 11 or more games in 7 straight seasons with the Indians. Fausto will not be in the top 10 in strikeouts, but he knows how to win games. After moving from the bullpen, Carmona won 19 games by keeping batters guessing. This year batters will have much more to work with as they prepare to face the young righty, and that may result in a slight regression.
Bottom Line: Both pitchers won 19 games for a solid offense in 2007. There’s no reason they can’t do it again, but all those wins didn’t help them in the playoffs. That ALDS loss will either inspire them or cripple them in 2008. Look for C.C. to continue to dominate, but Carmona’s ERA will climb back up into the high 3’s.
Seattle Mariners
Erik Bedard — 13-5, 3.16 ERA, 221 K
Felix Hernandez — 14-7, 3.92 ERA, 165 K
Bedard moves from a struggling Baltimore club to an AL West title contender in the Seattle. Bedard is a strike out machine that keeps batters off the bases (1.09 WHIP, .212 BAA). He turned 29 on March 6th and is hitting the prime age for a pitcher. He could have been a 20 game winner last season if he had a better offense, and perhaps a stronger bullpen, backing him up. This is King Felix’s third full season in the pros, but he’ll turn just 22 next week… He’ll continue to chip away at that 3.92 ERA as he matures, but he’s already got two 12+ win seasons on his resume.
Bottom Line: Niether of these guys have come close to winning 20 games, but with J.J. Putz as their closer and a solid offense, both youngsters have the stuff to each that goal. That said, Seattle was 2nd to the Yankees with a .287 team BA last year, but they only scored 794 runs… and that makes it tough for any pitcher to earn the win.
Other contenders
Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66) and Jeremy Bonderman (11-9, 5.01)… or Kenny Rogers (2006: 17-8, 3.84)
Toronto Blue Jays: Roy Halladay (16-7, 3.71) and either A.J. Burnett (10-8,3.75) or Dustin McGowan (12-10, 4.08)
LA Angels: John Lackey (19-9, 3.01), Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) and/or Jered (13-7, 3.91)… if they are all healthy…
New York Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang (19-7, 3.70) and Andy Pettite (15-9, 4.05)
Bottom Line: If Dice-K improves and Carmona regresses, I’d give the edge to the Red Sox here – but that’s only if the Sabathia and Beckett both repeat their 2007 performances. Beckett and Matsuzaka also get a few bonus points for thier performances in the 2007 postseason… That said, the Indians have 5 solid starters and a wicked good bullpen… which leads into an entirely different question – who has the best pitching staff?
Read more from BL Rob at The Bottom Line Blog – The Bottom Line in Red Sox news.
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Call me crazy, but I’m going to take the Jays here — Halladay and McGowan (not Burnett). They also figure to have a solid bullpen, especially if BJ Ryan is effective when he returns in May.
The Mariners’ 1-2 probably has the most potential, but I’m not sure Felix is that consistent just yet.
The Sox’s can be great, too, but I think Beckett will regress somewhat, and I’m not sure if Dice-K will improve enough to cover that up.
As for the Indians, I think Carmona is in for a major backslide. I think he’s #3 starter material, at best, this year.
Papelbon doesn’t seem to be doing so well lately…hopefully he figures his stuff out before the regular season starts.
Yesterday, the largest crowd in history to ever to watch a baseball game watched the Red Sox. I wonder what Hank’s thoughts on that are. His universe has to be all kinds of off.
I am smitten with potential…Bedard and Hernandez will be the nastiest. But I do think that Beckett and Dice-K will accumulate the most wins. I see Carmona sliding a bit.
All said, Seattle takes the 1-2 punch award for me (at least for now).
Isn’t it ironic that, when the Sox finally put great pitching together, any of these teams, with a tweak here or a strain there, could have the best 1 – 2 punch, or 1 – 7 punch.
Is it an absolute rule that injuries and other changes would make Gerry Fraley’s “best pitching staff” article, posted 2/22 could already be so out of date, just a month later? Already Lackey, Escobar, Beckett, Schilling, Buckholz, Colon, Janssen have altered the equations . . . as have Aardsma and Corey for the Sox.
The comment about Wakefield being a difference maker in 2008 felt good after seeing Wake’s performance last night. He is so rock steady. Still, I was very happy when Tito pulled him in timely fashion, and that Corey got out of the innings. This could be a useful pattern, giving Wake simlilar wins this year with fewer losses.
This is still S.T., and the future (Anderson, Place, Lowrie, Moss, etc.) sure looked good.
Daniel, I’d go with the Jays as well. You’d have to go back to 2003 to find the last time Burnett had an ERA over 4. He struck out more than a batter last year with a WHIP of 1.19. As for Halladay, he’s been as durable as ever over the last two years pitching 220 and 225 innings. Last year was an off year for him and he still posted a 3.71 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
But while I’d say Halladay and Burnett have the best chance of becoming shut down aces at the front of a rotation, they also probably have the least chance of staying healthy. Still, I think the Blue Jays pitching is really underrated. Correct me if I’m wrong, but they had the second best ERA in the AL last year with a decimated pitching staff. If only they had the offense to match NYY and BOS, they’d have as much a chance as anyone to take the division.
Gerry, I fully agree that the level of competition has increased exponentially over the last few years. What makes two world series in four years especially impressive, is the era in which the Red Sox did it.
Do the Rays deserve a mention, they’re atleast better than the yankees and statistically better than the Sox…
Anyone care about hockey? Boston College just won in overtime to go to the Frozen Four.
Rathman, I’m with you – Halladay/McGowan or Halladay/Burnett.
[...] of the American League’s Guest Columnist Bottom Line Rob, I could not disagree more with his assessment of the best one/two starter tandems in the good half of the [...]
Celts are headed to 60W. 7 of 8 points this week Bruins. Frozen-4 for BC. Yay. Great news.
Now, to this last S.T. game against the Dodgers. Clay Buckholz, like Ellsbury, Lowrie, Lester and Brown, started 2007 at Portland and moved up fast. Too fast? By my count, we will use a #5 SP only four (4) times in April. Wouldn’t it make sense to let Buckholz get his feet under him in Pawtucket? That was the plan until recently. If not Snyder or Hansack, then give the job to Tavarez until Buckholz is ready, hopefully in May. We can afford to wait. He is too valuable to rush. If Colon is ready before Buck, then bring him up first.
Watching the Nats game from their new park, I couldn’t be happier that we still play at Fenway. Good god, what a dump. Even GABP has some cool Modernist architecture on the outside, and at least Tropicana has free parking.
shudder.
Kazmir/Shields should be considered as well, though neither is likely to win many games.