Jon Lester has faced and overcome many obstacles in his young career. But on the mound, the one obstacle that has given him fits, and may be the key to his future success, is as simple as strike one.
When Lester went 6 2/3 of scoreless, three hit innings in Oakland in his second start this season, many Red Sox fans thought that he may have turned a corner. This was the Jon Lester that gave management pause to include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana over the off-season.
A closer look at one data point from that outing however paints a different picture of Lester’s development from the struggles of his past than the final outcome would portray. Of the twenty three batters that Jon Lester faced that day in Oakland, he only started eight of them out with first pitch strikes, working from behind a remarkable 65% of the time.
While Lester worked efficiently out of 1-0 counts most of the day, his track record will prove that not to be a sustainable way for Lester to show success. In fact, after reading through the post to follow, I would be surprised if any reader would come away feeling positive about the development of the young left hander so far this young season.
It only makes sense that pitchers that pitch in pitchers counts and stay out of the “hafta” counts (a “hafta” count being a count where a pitcher hafta throw a strike) are more successful at keeping runners off the bases and propelling their teams to victory. How many times have you heard Jerry Remy talk about the importance of not falling behind batters?
For Lester, the numbers paint a pretty dramatic picture. The young left hander has been known to fall behind a batter or two or three or four or – well, you get the picture. Lester would often run so many long counts that he was effectively a five inning pitcher even when he was pitching well. One of the largest contributing factors to Lester’s inability to go deep in games was his inability to get ahead of and/or stay ahead of hitters.
Over the past three seasons Jon Lester has pitched ahead of batters 28.1% of the potential “ahead of” counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), behind batters 26.5% of”behind” counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1), and even (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-2) 45.5% of the time. Another way to look at this is that he gets to 0-1 43.4% of the at bats and to 1-0 48.4% of the time.
Compared to league average for 2007, Lester has a penchant for starting in a hole. The average pitcher started 0-1 46.9% of the time vs. 41.2% in a 1-0 hole. Lester is 15% more likely than league average to start a batter with a ball.
So far this season, these numbers are further exacerbated. Half of the batters that Jon Lester has faced this season have started their at bat ahead of Lester with a 1-0 count in their favor. Furthermore, Lester hasn’t been able to rebound as easily only working 19.8% of counts into his favor.
Why is this all so important? Looking quickly at how batters perform against Jon Lester in at bats following an 0-1 count compared to a 1-0 count tells the story pretty succinctly.
Each one of these data points is as alarming as the next. Lester is 12% more hittable following an 1-0 count than an 0-1 count. What really shocked me looking at this data was the comparison of strike outs to walks depending on the first pitch of the at bat.
These numbers are so diametrically opposed, I can’t even think of a ratio that draws a comparison better than the raw data; but I will try. After a 1-0 count, Lester is nearly six times more likely to walk a batter and strikes out 53% less batters than after throwing a first pitch strike.
The net result of all this is that he is 20% less efficient at getting batters out when throwing a first pitch ball than when he gets ahead of a batter with strike one.
I am not really sure that you needed all this statistical backing to prove to you what your eyes show you every time that Lester takes the mound. However, the data presented here paints the extreme to which the outcome of a single pitch each at bat can impact a game and even a career.
Looking back at Lester’s problems, it really only comes down to one pitch each at bat that will dictate his ability to make the next step as the top tier major league hurler that his stuff suggests he has the ability to be; strike one.
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i’m not sure this has to do with strike one. one thing i’ve noticed since Lester returned from cancer is that he hasn’t been able to put hitters away, if you look at his K/9 before and after cancer there’s a big diference, he used to be a strikeout pitcher with control problems in the minors, and in his first stint with us he was striking batters at a pretty good rate (don’t know the stats exactly, too lazy to look for them), but since he came back from cancer his stuff hasn’t been the same. I remeber when he first came up that his curveball was amazing and he was getting a lot of K with it, now i’ts gone, he can’t get it over for strikes or anything. My point is that Lester’s stuff is not the same it was since he returned from the cancer and it’s already been like a full year and at this point i’m not sure if it ever will.
Watching Baseball Tonight last night Peter Gammons reported that Craig Hansen is going to solve Bostons bullpen woes, and that He thinks that Coco Crisp is going to get traded soon to the cubs.
It really is that simple with Lester…get strike one and he is effective. His cutter and curve are very effective when he gets ahead because even if they are just buzzing the strike zone hitters have to protect…both pitches seem like plus offerings most of the time, especially that cutter when he gets it down and in to righties. When he is ahead he can be effectively wild.
Hansen has pitched pretty well at Pawtucket.
9.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 SO
it was about time.
Sorry if this was already posted/linked in another thread (my computer takes forever to go to archives)…I know I thought the whole Sox jersey being buried then dug up got way more media attention then it deserved…but this is pretty hilarious
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/yankees_bury_bernie_williams_under
I love the part about his family not being able to attend since they were not “true yankees”
Total speculation on my part here, but I wonder if there’s a home/road split thing going on with Lester. Being a lefty pitcher at Fenway sucks, and that can’t be easy for him. I wish him the best, but he just can’t be in our rotation right now. I’d be willing to try him in the pen, because an effective Lester and Okaji would be death to most of the big hitters in the AL.
No home/away split issue:
Career Home ERA – 4.60
Career Away ERA – 4.75
The only split issue i see is his righty/lefty splits:
Career Lefties – .309/.373/.537
Career Righties – .270/.358/.392
I really can’t think of many reasons for this. If anyone cares to explain, i’d love to hear it. The Yanks were my only idea and while he does have a 17.18 ERA against them it is only over 3.2 innings.
I’m not sure what Tim is talking about is an affect on his performance or a symptom of something else that is wrong with the way he pitches. It’s not the 0-1 count that is necessarily the issue but his inability to hit his spots when he needs to. This was discussed on Baseball tonight the other night. They showed several replays of key pitches where the pitch is not going where the catcher wants the ball. The result? A hit, or worse, a home run.
Getting a first strike will be an incidental benefit out of improving his accuracy.
Such talent. At this point Jon Lester and Craig Hansen are our riddles wrapped in enigmas. Like Jed Lowrie and Clay Buckholz, they are just 23-24 years old. Except Lester and Hansen were rushed rather than groomed.
Lester is having to figure it out at Fenway, and we all know he has the pitching skill and grit to do it. Today will be his first easy challenge in a long while, although that lefty split might make it his toughest challenge. Give him time, like we are giving Papi, Dustin, Becket, Daisuke and MDC.