I tried. Honest, I did.
I tried to like him. I advocated signing him last year. He was the best option at the time.
Now it could be argued he’s the worst shortstop in the major leagues.
Last week, I asked my friend for ideas for topics on the Sox to write about. My friend, who is a Julio Lugo fan (only because everyone else hates him) suggested writing an article about how Lugo is actually good. I ran with it, because I knew it’d spark some debate. However, when I sat down to write the article and researched the numbers, I came to the quick conclusion that I just couldn’t do it. I couldn’t justify writing anything good about Lugo because… well, there really isn’t anything good to write about.
Prior to last night’s game, Lugo was hitting .288/.336/.342. Okay, that’s a pretty good average. I’ll take it. But he looked miserable in the win Monday night, chasing balls out of the zone for no apparent reason and muffing a routine play that sank him to a major league-worst nine errors and .919 fielding percentage. He’s last in assists per nine innings (2.36) and range factor (3.49). He’s the weak link defensively and given his lack of ability to work counts and hit for extra bases, that .288 is a very empty line, indeed.
If he can fix his fielding woes and return to his production in the field last year and keep his average in the .280s, then he may end up being valuable after all (he did hit over .280 after the All-Star Break last year). But for most of the year last year and so far this year, he is a flat out liability, and I just can’t handle it anymore. I have never hated a Red Sox player and I still don’t, but Lugo may, if he continues this ineptness, force me to finally crack.
I’m at the point where now I am seriously looking at candidates to replace Julio Lugo. So let’s look at them together.
Jed Lowrie: Jed has certainly impressed in the short time he’s been in Boston. It’s definitely possible we could go with Lowrie next year, but he and Pedroia are very similar types of hitters, and I’m not sure that the team is willing to go to that extent to fix the problem. In addition, Lowrie is not considered a good shortstop defensively. There is a much better chance that he serves as our backup middle infielder next year, replacing Alex Cora, than there is him supplanting Julio Lugo. It could certainly happen, but I’m unsure if it would be the right course of action.
David Eckstein: Eck would not be available until the off-season as he is under contract to Toronto, but would bring the requisite amount of Grit
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Interesting thread on Khalil Greene rumors at MLB Trade Rumors…..the comments have tons of valuable nuggets of data:
Could I be swayed that Evan’s original idea is a good one? If and only if you could swing a deal that sent Lugo packing while only paying a small % of his salary and Crisp was bounty for Greene. I guess I just don’t know why the Padres would be that desperate.
I still think…stand pat, integrate Lowrie in the short term, deal Crisp for a bullpen arm or keep him where he is….
No need to run Lugo out of town (yet)…
(the block quote didn’t work….so the first paragraph above about Greene was the comment from MLB Trade rumors – fyi)
Block quote worked for me.
Another route the Red Sox could take here is to look for the next best thing in SS’s in other teams farm systems….for example, what would it take to get someone like Brent Lillibridge from Atlanta?
Just throwing it out there….
Brent Lillibridge would be fantastic. I considered writing about him, but even if we dangle Coco Crisp, I think we have no shot in hell of getting Lillibridge. Cox loves the kid, they’re thinking about having him be their CF next year. I just don’t see it happening, but it’d be booming if we did.
Mike Lowell: .222/.279/.349
Jason Varitek: .258/.313/.438
Big Papi: .226/.329/.427
Three of the ‘big’ guys on the Sox—all batting WORSE than Julio Lugo. Why aren’t you whining about them?
Listen, I understand that Lugo’s defensive ineptitudes are frustrating as hell—but in my opinion—it’s people like you that are half the reason Lugo does so badly. If everyone stopped bashing him and started applauding the good (and yes, there is SOME good) then maybe we’d see an attitude change. Maybe, just maybe Lugo would suddenly feel LIKED in Boston, rather than HATED. Maybe his self confidence would rise and maybe, just maybe, we’d see an All-Star.
Ok…I’ll relax now—that last line was a joke. But seriously now, let’s give Lugo the lovin he deserves.
Juuuuuulioooooo Luuuuugooooooo!
According to Bill James, Khalil Greene feasts on poor pitching.
I don’t think I need to justify Big Papi.
Mike Lowell is a case to be had, sure, but he hasn’t started sucking yet… he won the World Series MVP last year.
Varitek’s value is in his defense and leadership.
It’s not just Lugo’s ineptitude this year… you HAVE to factor last year in too. I’m not whining about these players because they’ve proven themselves before. Lugo has not (not in a Sox uniform).
Are those the options? Well, i’d stick with Lugo if i had to pick between those players. Honestly, SS is a probably the second worse position in all of baseball. Lugo should be able to get us a .700 OPS and combine that with decent D, we should be happy.
Hell, Lugo has a higher OPS right now than Eckstein, Greene, Cabrera, and Lowrie.
Personally, i wouldn’t touched Furcal with a 10 foot poll. He is hitting over his 90th percentile.
Khalil Greene, love the guy, would look like the OZ compared to Lugo at short but would look just the same if not worse at the plate than Lugo. He is a defensive specialist with some pop, but to be fair to Khalil he plays in a PITCHERS-PITCHERS ball park. That needs to be emphasized here. That park sucks to hit in plain and simple. He might tear up our left field wall.
But if we can scoop up Greene I will take Jed Lowrie for the rest of the season. He is better than both.
To Sean – Varitek = could care less what he does at the plate everything with him is like hitting the megabucks when he hits.
Lowell = just came off injury so that argument is null and void
Papi = Same as Lowell and he is now tearing it up. He will be hitting 280-310 at the end of the season while we will see Lugo hitting 265 at the end of it.
Can’t we attribute several of Julio’s errors to the same fatigue experienced by the rest of the Sox; although he hit pretty well through Awful April. That being said, he is not terrible, but a .270BA with shaky D is not the best we can do, or what we need.
Long term, the simplest and best answer to this is probably Lowrie. Though some say he is not a SS, an equal number say he is made for the job. He’s done extremely well as an emergency call-up, and his MiLB background shows this isn’t a fluke. That he hits like Pedroia is a bad thing? A few gritty .300, 12HR, high OPS, good glove Pedroia’s in the lineup, backed by Papi, Manny, Lowell, Youk, Drew, would be a good thing.
Greene, Furcal would come with the same hopes and questions we had for Julio, and could be worse. Cabrera? Would he be willing? But why not develop Lowrie? Speaking of whom, where has he been lately. Rest Dustin and Julio tonite and tomorrow, they seem tired, and play Jed.
Wow…there are alot of bad SS’s out there: http://tinyurl.com/56e67a
What about Bobby Crosby as a flier? He’s due $3.5 mm this year and $5.25 mm next and then a FA in 2010. Could you send Lugo, Crisp, Lowrie, one of Delcarmen and/or Hansen and money to Oakland for Harden and Crosby?
Crosby has been an underperformer and has not been healthy…but he did project as an All-Star. Can he harness it?
I am firmly anti-Kahlil Greene….and looking at that list of SS’s, Furcal may actually be the best option…but I can’t give him 5 years and $12-$15 mm….
I came firmly down in the anti-Furcal camp yesterday (mainly for money reasons) and while I am not thrilled with Lugo, the other options aren’t much either.
Don’t get me started on Eckstein…and I really would be hesitant to make a move for Greene. I’m just not convinced he’s much of an upgrade especially considering the salary we’d have to eat with Julio.
The Crosby idea that Tim put out there would be interesting mainly because he’s a high upside guy, but I don’t think Beane would take Lugo unless we really paid most of the freight.
Ultimately I think we’ll see Lugo play out the string with Lowrie getting a close look throughout the year and Theo evaluating if Lowrie can cut it next year before figuring out what to do with Julio.
OK…..that was a stretch….there is really no reason to suggest that Crosby will ever be the player that he was supposed to be when he hit the league….but I really am at a loss…
We may not want to hear it right now, but a Lugo/Lowrie duo at SS this year and next may be the best for the team…then reevaluate from there.
To bad that Arod talk all fell through….he is still the best SS in baseball (note sarcasm with which this was intended)…
Wow.. Those are some horrible alternatives. I say Lugo remains our full-time shortstop for most of this year and next. The Sox don’t pick another couple of years for Cora and call up Lowrie to be our bench infielder, splitting more and more time with Lowell/Lugo next year. By the last year of Lugo’s contract, if he isn’t traded, Lowrie will be getting more and more time.
Look the same thing happened with Youk when we had Billy Ballgame and Millar blocking him. Lowrie looks to be our SS of the future.
And as much as I like the idea of Crosby [b]Tim[/b], his injury history for a position player just is too much for want to give up anything of worth for him. Harden would be interesting, but only in a situation like Colon. Low risk for the team, high reward for the player if he stays healthy and performs.
Overall, Lugo has settled into a solid performer. He gets runners over. He plays pretty good defense. He isn’t a distraction. He’s relatively young. We don’t need Lugo to put up Papi numbers. He just needs to help turn that lineup over.
That’s all I expect of him and he’s doing a pretty good job of that. We’re 1st, 3.5 games up on May 7th. Our pitching has been stunning the last 10 games. Our offense is getting hot, and we’re about finished with the toughest stretch of our schedule all season. Things are good. Why the need to rail on a guy now?
Stay in-house, Lowrie can handle it and if not Lugo batting ninth won’t kill this team as long as his defense picks up to at least last years quality (which wasn’t great but much better then this year so far). You have Tejeda, possibly Middlebrooks (if he can stay at ss, although he looks like a 3b), and defensive wizard Argenis Diaz in the system as well plus another draft in four weeks. None of these guys figure to be ready soon but rather then continue the carousel of overpaid medicore to poor shortstops I’d rather see if Lowrie/Lugo can hold it down for now and see how things develop.
Sean Williams: “But seriously now, let
and I just realized without reading the comments after Sean’s that everyone else had basically said the same thing about Tek, Lowell and Papi. so I apologize for repeating that part of it and being redundant.
Jed Lowrie is the answer. He’s cheap and productive with the bat, and while slow and without plus range at shortstop, he can’t be much worse than Lugo. Who cares if he’s another Dustin Pedroia- that’s a GREAT thing. He proved last year he can hit in Pawtucket, is proving right now he can hit in the big leagues, and shouldn’t be just the backup infielder. Rather than wasting money on Eckstein or Cabrera, just go with the kid in another gradual implementation into the starting lineup for one of our prospects.
The one caveat is the amount of money we’ll have to give to whichever NL team takes a chance on Lugo.
I never liked the Lugo signing…but when is this carousal going to end? Five shortstops in the last six years isn’t the greatest form of success. Either Lugo steps it up in the next few games or we bring up some young blood from inside our organization (Lowrie) and keep him alongside Pedroia for the next 10 years.
Give Lugo back to Tampa. They sure could use a “veteran” that has won a World Series title!
I am in favor of sticking with Lugo. At the end of the year we should consider what we have and see if there is a better option that is reasonable. Julio certainly looks better at the plate then he did the first half of last year, so there is no reason to panic and overpay for marginal difference… or a player who is even worse (Khalil Greene). I live in San Diego and watch almost as many Padres games as Red Sox games, so I would be happy to argue that one.
He is an much more interesting candidate: Hanley Ramirez.
So you think, why in the world would the Marlins trade him? Well, why do the Marlins trade away all of their good players?
Hanley Ramirez started the 2008 season with 2 years and 14 days of service time. Which means he will be one of the many Marlins players who will be arbitration eligible for the first time this off season. He is in line to get paid the big bucks. A hefty raise (at least $6M and potentially $10M) over the $439,000 he was renewed for this year.
The Marlins will have a ridiculous number, I count 8, players who are guaranteed, barring injury, to hit arbitration for the first time (Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Doug Waechter, Scott Olson, Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida, and Logan Kensing). Two more that could potentially be arbitration eligible for the first time (Dallas McPherson and Cody Ross). We are talking about most of their big names on the team, all of whom had their contracts renewed for this season. If the Marlins plan to keep them all, we are talking about an extra $20-$30 million dollars in payroll. Granted they have room to raise their payroll over the $22 million mark they are spending this year, but do you actually think they plan on doubling their payroll obligations to meet this tremendous growth. Doubtful. Even if they do, the cost will go up even more in their second year of arbitration. So I think we can expect at least one big trade from the Marlins
Hanley is the Marlins’ biggest fish. He is posed to be paid the most and yield the most number of prospects. It would cost a lot, but the Red Sox have the resources to pry him loose. What do you think?
Greene Career: .252/.309/.436
Greene 2008: .213/.265/.295
Greene Home Career: .228/.290/.364, 27 HR, .265 babip
Greene Road Career: .275/.328/.504, 48 HR, .299 babip
This could be an intriguing buy low option. He’d fit well in the 9-hole, play above average D, and possibly deposit some into the Monster seats.
Wat you don’t know about PETCO is that it is hell on lefties with power. But it plays much more fair to a right handed pull hitter, and Khalil Greene is an extreme pull hitter.
His approach at the plate is TERRIBLE. There was a stretch of months last year when he refused to swing at the first pitch. He constantly swings wildly on pitches way out of the zone.
And don’t think he will be a buy low option just because his home stats are so bad. He is one of the Padres best hitters (on a terrible offensive team) and they don’t have a prospect blocked at that position. So its going to cost Lowrie at least.
This can’t be much of a discussion considering the alternatives to Lugo suck … I don’t think we can improve much by paying Lugo’s contract (nobody is gonna take it) and paying another player’s contract to play the same position with little or no improvement in production … not to mention what we would have to give up in a trade … it’s just not worth it
Now of course getting Hanley would be fantastic … he is getting better all the time and if he becomes available the trade price will be steep … but if anybody’s worth it … he is … I think if there is any possible way we can make that trade we need to do it … then of course we can let Lugo go and make Lowrie our Cora of the future
But for now … let Lugo play out his contract splitting time with Cora/Lowrie … after he is gone let Lowrie take over the position unless we can find someone significantly better
Let’s not make a trade out of impatience with poor production … making a change just for the sake of making a change is … Sabean-esque … If someone worthy is available … please for the love of all that is good in this world … pull the trigger Theo … but if it’s just to pick up another Julio … forget it … That’s all I’m saying
Julio Lugo: worst player of the team………enough said……..
I can not believe I am counting the minutes until Alex Cora returns. Lugo has personally blown at least two games with errors on ground balls that my infant son could have caught in his sleep.
I was patient with Lugo last year when he started the year looking like he was armed with a tooth pick at the plate, but now he should be feeling more comfortable what with this being his second year and the good feeling that goes with the ring. I find myself screaming out everytime Lugo boots one. Please help me.
I lost money because of that ass clowns’ errors…Lugo can lick my balls.
[...] hardly the only one guilty of being less than fond of our current starting shortstop, of course, but I was under the impression that I was leading [...]