MVN: Most Valuable Network

On the surface, it appears Hideki Okajima is having a phenomenal year. 0.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15/4 K/BB in 17 remarkable innings appears to be another Okajima start like we witnessed in the beginning of 2007, when hitters stood baffled at the plate by his devastating changeup and fastball combo, precise control, and the ability to squeeze out of any jam unharmed. From the John Buck homer on Opening Day to a Paul Konerko dinger in mid-June, Okajima did not surrender a run in 2007. He’s allowed one in 2008.

While Okajima enjoying another season marked with success and is undoubtedly helping the Red Sox more than he is hurting them, looking beneath the surface you’ll see a year marred with the inability to help his fellow relief pitchers. His 0.53 ERA looks stunning, but it’s been in part due to Okajima that other Red Sox relievers are struggling to keep their ERA down anywhere near that level.

Why? Okajima has allowed eight of his eleven inherited runners to score. In 2007, four of 28 inherited runners crossed the plate.

Okajima has molded himself, and deservedly so, into such a relief ace that Francona feels comfortable putting him any situation, no matter how high-leverage. These struggles, at least this season, have often been against powerful offenses like New York, Detroit, and Cleveland, and with bases loaded and one out, or some formation with runners in scoring position where Okajima has no wiggle room. Francona has been using him as the bullpen ace, and anyone that is going to argue for Lopez or Delcarmen or Tavarez in this situation is crazy.

Still, how do we chalk it up- hitters becoming familiar with his repertoire or overwork? Or has Okajima have most of his fortune morph into famine early this season?

BABIP

2008

Overall .239

Men on Base .368

High Leverage .321

Medium Leverage .111

Low Leverage .111

2007

Overall .244

Men on Base .217

High Leverage .253

Medium Leverage .226

Low Leverage .243

Small sample, but the difference in BABIP is fascinating. While last year Okajima was credited with a .217 clip with runners on base and just .253 in Hi-Lev situations, those numbers have puffed to .368 and .321, respectively, in 2008. This leads me to believe that with more opportunity, those numbers deflate and Okajima goes right back to being the steady relief ace who puts the kibosh on opposing rallies.

Here are the numbers through May 6 of other Red Sox relievers w/ stranded runners:

Papelbon - 6.1 BR/9, stranded 5 of 5 IR

Okajima - 9.0 BR/9, stranded 3 of 11 IR

Delcarmen - 16.8 BR/9, stranded 5 of 12 IR

Tavarez - 18.3 BR/9, stranded 6 of 7 IR

Corey - 21.0 BR/9, stranded 2 of 4 IR

Timlin - 24.2 BR/9, stranded 3 of 3 IR

Some before the season hoped Delcarmen would be The Man to spell Okajima and keep his arm fresh (along with Papelbon) for serious eighth inning duties, and while I’m positive he’ll continue to get stronger and stronger as the year passes, he simply cannot be trusted at this point to be handed the ball in high leverage situations. Timlin used to be Francona’s man back in 2004 and 2005, but those days are long gone. And since Bill James isn’t our manager, Papelbon won’t see the bottom of the seventh for a while.

We all want Okajima to have the ball when the game is on the line. Even with the disappointing Stranded Runners rate, and even with the unlucky BABIP and the early season difficulties stopping runs in game-changing situations, we all want him to have the ball. As the season progresses, his “surface” numbers will become less impressive, but the “underneath” numbers will improve greatly. He’s our relief ace for the long haul.