MVN: Most Valuable Network

Since the AL East has been a loaded division in 2008 with zero easy opponents for the Red Sox, it’s time to take a look at whether these teams are contenders or pretenders for the rest of the season:

Tampa Bay Rays, 31-21, 1st in AL East

Home: 20-9, Road: 11-12, RS: 243, RA: 216, Pythag: 29-23

The biggest surprises of the 2008 baseball season reside in the state of Florida: the Miami-based and NL East leading Florida Marlins, and the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, a team nobody saw would make such an impact so early in their climb to contention. The Rays have been remarkably consistent this year as a whole: their defense is tied for first in fielding percentage, their pitching fifth in R/PG and their offense fourth in R/PG, all AL ranks.

The Rays have always been able to handle the bat, it’s been their pitching that has historically been a total embarrassment. The addition of Matt Garza (4.06), the breakout of Edwin Jackson (3.47), the ascending of James Shields to a top-notch #2 (3.38), and Scott Kazmir’s continued success means GM Andrew Friedman has collected the strongest rotation in Rays history. Since their only true over-performers on offense are catcher Dioner Navarro (374/415/470) and outfielder Eric Hinske (257/340/542), along with the fact they haven’t gotten much from Carl Crawford, means the team has staying power.

But the main reason the Rays will contend for the division and wild card is their pitching. Good pitching means you will be around till the finish. Their +27 run differential means the team hasn’t been blessed with obscene luck, either. This is a young team who has the confidence they can contend with the Yankees and Red Sox for the first time, especially at home, where their pitching staff is practically unbeatable.

Team MVP: B.J. Upton- .304/.397/.429, 13 SB, 31 RBI, 14 2B

Projected finish: Third, AL East. First winning record in team history

Toronto Blue Jays, 28-26, 3rd in AL East

Home: 15-11, Road: 13-15, RS: 209, RA: 198, Pythag: 28-26

The Jays have been featured as the biggest mystery in the AL East for years now: every March a few souls pick them as the sexy selection to win the division, and each May they show their true, non-contending colors. Their latest run has saved John Gibbons job for the time being, and their position in the AL East continues to become more and more favorable, standing just 4 back of the Rays at this time with a sweep over the Royals this past weekend.

The Jays, despite Frank Thomas turmoil and struggles on offense, have stayed in the race with pitching. Their 198 RA ranks fourth in the AL behind Oakland, Chicago and Cleveland by a slim margin and their staff has been led by outstanding performances from Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay. Marcum has been a godsend, throwing 64 innings, allowing just 36 hits and striking out 59 for a 2.80 ERA and making his case for an All-Star nod, although a .167 BABIP has been a big reason. Roy Halladay already has 81 quality innings under his belt with a 3.11 ERA and 5 CG. The contributions of a bullpen led by B.J. Ryan (0.56), Jesse Carlson (1.77), Scott Downs (2.08) and Brian Tallet (1.27) cannot be overstated, but expect some of those ERA’s to climb in the coming months.

Do the Jays have staying power atop the division? For one, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells need to begin contributing because the team is ranked 2nd to last in the AL in hitting. Rios is too talented to stay at a 268/332/383 line all season, but the fact Vernon Wells hasn’t turned into the superstar we expected is cause for concern for Toronto. Luckily, Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay (.388 OBP) have made positive contributions, but I don’t expect Toronto to stay in the race all year.

Team MVP: Shaun Marcum- 4-3, 2.80 ERA, 146 ERA, 59/20 K/BB

Projected finish: 4th, AL East

New York Yankees, 25-27, 5th in AL East

Home: 14-12, Road: 11-15, RS: 232, RA: 239, Pythag: 25-27

The return of Alex Rodriguez to a struggling lineup has provided the Yankees with the offensive boost they desperately needed. With five straight wins over Baltimore and reeling Seattle (I wrote this on Monday before they dropped two straight…woops), the Yankees are beginning to heat up and produce the type of performances their payroll suggests would be adequate. A-Rod’s SLG is already up to .538, Abreu’s up to .467, and Jason Giambi, despite the early season anguish, is putting together a strong campaign with a .385 OBP, 10 HR and a .530 SLG. We all know Robinson Cano is a June-on player, too. Their offense will put up the runs.

The question mark with the Yankees is their pitching staff. While Darrell Rasner has certainly provided a crutch temporarily, whether he’s more than a serviceable #5 is still in question. The main reason I have a hard time believing the Yankees can overcome their early season slump to outplay the Red Sox and win the AL East is their pitching staff. Moving Joba Chamberlain was a good start. Still, Wang is beginning to slump, Pettitte and Mussina are awfully hittable and who knows whether it will take Kennedy and Hughes a full season to completely adjust.

The bullpen is also a concern now that Chamberlain has been moved. It’s going to be a reoccurring story for the Yankees in the second half of the season: the offense will carry the load and get them right in the thick of the playoff race, but the pitching staff won’t provide enough quality innings to match the arms of Boston over the long haul and into September. Look for them to fight Tampa and the cluster in the AL Central for the Wild Card.

Team MVP: Mariano Rivera- 22 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 20 K, 0.41 ERA, 12 SV

Projected finish: 2nd, AL East. Either Yankees or Indians for the wild card

Baltimore Orioles: 24-25, 4th in AL East

Home: 16-7, Road: 10-18, RS: 213, RA: 211, Pythag: 25-26

The Orioles have played phenomenal baseball at Camden Yards, and I’m sure their fans have enjoyed their team overachieving greatly in the first two months of the season, but I fail to see this run lasting. Their batting line as a team is .247/.317/.395 and their only player with an OPS+ over 115 is Nick Markakis with a .250/.364/.429 line and only six doubles. This means the Orioles have been remarkably lucky, outstanding in clutch situations, and have won plenty of close games. With Toronto and Tampa’s pitching prowess, and the offense of the Yankees and Red Sox, the Orioles could see a second half slide.

Much like the Rays but not as monumental, the O’s have proved their worth in the first two months. The two biggest reasons have been Brian Burres and Daniel Cabrera (5-1, 3.70 ERA, 30 BB in 73 IP, which is outstanding for him). Burres only has 29 K in 60 2/3 IP, meaning he’s been able to get extremely lucky on balls in play, and Cabrera with just 42 K in 73 IP. Expect their pitching staff as a whole to decline, along with pen arms like Sherrill, Johnson and Sarfate.

Team MVP: Brian Roberts- .262/.352/.417, 13 SB, 3 HR, 4 3B, 27 BB

Projected finish: 5th, AL East. Only team with a record more than 5 games under .500