Billy Beane has been quoted saying that the first two months show you what you have, the next two are spent acquiring what you need and the final two is the playoff push (if applicable). Dan Duquette, a man before his time (remember Mike Gimbel?), also subscribed to this theory.
So, May is almost gone and the Red Sox sit at 32-24. What could the Red Sox stand to improve? Let’s take a quick travel through the roster (all statistics not including last night’s godforsaken West Coast game that causes me to rip my hair out because it’s too late for me to watch)…
The Red Sox are on pace to win roughly 93-94 games, which may be enough in this tough AL East to capture the crown, so at least on the face of things, we’re going good.
Jason Varitek is enjoying a nice little contract season at .268/.350/.472 and his legend is growing exponentially. Kevin Cash has found the magic of Wonderboy (no, seriously, this is plausible) and is at .314/.368/.392. Catching’s fine.
First base has Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuk at .306/.359/.509 and in the process of making himself an elite first baseman, not just an above average one. Sean Casey is a great backup to have. He can hit, field and keep the harmony in the clubhouse with the best of them.
D-Ped seems to be having himself a little sophomore slump, but .289/.331/.399 isn’t quiiiite enough to start writing the epitaph just yet. I’d give him time. Julio Lugo is redefining suckitude in the field but again, he did well last year and Mike Lowell was in the same boat last year when it came to errors, so I’m willing to cut Lugo some slack, there. His bat looks alive again at .285/.353/.331. No power, but .285 is nice. Until you read this. Still, nothing much we can really do at this point.
Alex Cora hasn’t really played much but he and Jed Lowrie have proved to be excellent backups with absolutely no concerns on the offensive or defensive side of the issue. Mike Lowell is also playing solid. His average has taken a dip to .268 (and the requisite OBP dip to .315) but his .478 slugging keeps him on track.
Also playing well is fourth outfielder Jacoby Crisp — er, Coco Ellsbury — er, Jacoco Crisbury. I give up. Anyways, Coco Crisp is hitting .277/.311/.429 and has the reputation of a pure defensive whiz while Jacoby is at .278/.380/.399 and is called the best defensive center fielder in the game by Beane.
Manny is slumping but just hit homer No. 499 and has a .292/.376/.505 line. There are worse lines out there. J.D. Drew is being his usual below the radar self and checks in at .282/.379/.409 with solid defense and speed.
Big Papi slumped at the beginning of the year as we all know, but I’m not having too much of an issue with his current .253/.358/.480 line with 12 homers. He’s on pace to match his HR and RBI totals from last year.
The pitching. Starting pitching is doing quite well, actually. Cumulative, Boston starters have a 4.03 ERA which is good for seventh in the American League (CLE, OAK, CHW, TOR, LAA, TB). Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka have been relevations. It may not show up in the stats just yet, but Tim Wakefield is nothing but consistent and Josh Beckett still has his I will rip you apart glare. Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Bartolo Colon all have done stupendous in filling out the No. 5 role.
Now, here’s the part you are all fully aware of… the bullpen. Ranked 11th in the AL only ahead of LAA, CLE and TEX with a 4.33 ERA, we need to start exploring some other options to help shore up the ‘pen. Let’s walk through the pen, closer first.
I feel silly for even saying this, but despite his 14 saves, Papelbon isn’t quite the same. He’s got a scintillating 2.25 ERA but that’s 0.44 points above his career average. Yes, I’m saying that to illustrate how good he is. A 2.25 ERA is, of course, fine. It’s just a little odd to see it come from Paps. Hideki Okajami, inherited runner woes aside, has a sparkling 0.82 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 6/19 BB/K in 22 innings. Nothing to worry about with the two-headed monster.
David Aardsma, despite walking people as much as he strikes them out, (okay, not quite: 18 walks to 21 whiffs) is contributing, period. He has a 2.96 ERA and has been placed in situations where he can succeed. He has the most relief innings of any reliever on staff. Manny Delcarmen, a.k.a. The Trampoline, has a high 5.14 ERA and has struggled in his first full season with high expectations placed on him. He’s shown signs of emerging from that struggle, but he can’t be looked upon as a sure thing.
Javier Lopez has consistently put up solid numbers this season and last and does a rather good job stranding inherited runners. He’s not exactly a problem, despite Red Sox Nation having a curious aversion to him. Mike Timlin, on the other hand…
He gave us five great years. There’s no denying that. He’s a personal favorite of mine. He’s emblematic, in my opinion, of the last five years of Red Sox success. But he has a 6.89 ERA. A 1.66 WHIP. It’s time for a phantom injury to put him on the disabled list.
Craig Hansen, similarly, hasn’t seen any success despite some clear improvement in his pitch movement. The sole reason for this is his five walks in 10 innings. He needs to firm up his control, and the only way for him to do it may be at the major league level, so we may have to bite the bullet with him. However, it is possible we could option him to Triple-A.
We have two relievers that are not getting the job done, and it’s showing. Running through the Triple-A options as a reliever quickly:
- Charlie Zink is experiencing success with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts. 27-years old, he may deserve a shot, but it’s his first success at the Triple-A level.
- David Pauley is similarly doing well, but he’s a starter.
- Devern Hansack is struggling with a 5.55 ERA. That may be because he needs to be at the major league level… or he’s lost what he had the last few years.
- Chris Smith… now he’s impressive. He was called up earlier but didn’t pitch. He has a 1.36 ERA in four starts and eight relief appearances. He is definitely a viable option.
- Jon Switzer and Eric Hull, two former major leagues for the Devil Rays and Dodgers, respectively, aren’t lighting the world on fire but are handling themselves capably. Switzer is a lefty.
- Lee Gronkiewicz has a 0.79 ERA, but he’s pitched a rather low 11.1 IP on the year, so it’s too early to bank on him,
If we were to promote internally, Chris Smith looks to be the logical choice. However, I don’t expect the Sox to make any rash moves. That being said, the current pattern of Timlin and Hansen are not encouraging, and we may just be seeing Chris Smith and a new reliever acquired in July on the roster in August. After all, the next two months are spent acquiring what you need, and the answer is clear in this case.
What do you think? Does the bullpen need to be fixed? How can we do it?
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Wow, never thought I would see the weakest link brought up lol. Nice job Tim.
On a serious note: will Timlin get it together this season. He is one of my favorite players on this team and I just want him to do well. As of late that has not been the case.
“Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka have been relevations.”
Lester maybe but Dice-k and his 5.34 BB/9 has got to be the worst 8-0 pitcher i’ve seen in my life.
We need to get rid of Timlin and Lopez and bring some kids from the minors to the pen.
Your analysis is a positive one, and I firmly agree.
Some of the lower BA’s have come as a decline of the whole team during this road trip against Harden, Bedard, etc., and these should rebound as a group when facing normal pitching. This is a .300 hitting team, and it feels ready for a sustained attack.
Likewise, our SP, especially with Colon and Buchholz creating a Coco/Jacoby issue, is beyond formidable and is due for a period of dominance of its own.
I strongly agree that Javier Lopez and David Aardsma deserve better press; and both are being stretched successfully. I have my fingers crossed for Timlin, MDC and Hansen. If they can figure it out, we will quickly have the best bullpen in the league. If one of them doesn’t, AAA has good candidates including, I think, Pauley or Masterson for the role of swingman. Gronk and Hansack can be a force, but innings have been limited by injury. Smith is hot right now and deserves a break, and Jones is again showing his talent. If the new reliever you talk about is Huston Street or a rare RP at his level, that would be fine, otherwise AAA has as good as almost anyone out there.
Hard to argue here…this is an elite team. Their road struggles are puzzling, but I do think will regress to the mean (along with their unreal home record). This is a 93-96 win team.
There are more starters than you can shake your fist at. But none are “expendable” or “tradeable” as you may need all of them at some point this season.
The OF/IF/bench is solid….the only glaring hole is Lugo at SS and if more offense is needed, Lowrie is a stone’s throw away. Given the Sox offensive standings (top 3 in the AL in almost every category), I don’t think the bats are our problem.
Bullpen…..”You are the weakest link”….
Paul and I talked about the pen a little bit in last night’s podcast….shameless plug…I do think we need to see Timlin take a break. I would prefer it be an extended DL stint than an outright waiver. (Maybe he could play a better short than Lugo?)
I think you have to throw some options from within the organization at the wall now. Move Hansen into the 7th and don’t let him go more than 1 inning. I think as a “get out of jam” kind of guy to bridge to Oki, he could be more successful. Let MDC see if he can find himself…and give the likes of Chris Smith a try.
The name that most intrigues me however is still Daniel Bard. I know he’s working his way up the chain. But why not see if we can capture lightning in a bottle and “Joba-fy” him.
I too would like to see Bard, but being a Tar Heel I’m a bit biased.
Hey Jc,
No matter how you slice it, dude has a 8-0 record and a low ERA. The walks drive me crazy, but he’s getting it done.
Why get rid of Lopez?
because giving a roster spot to a loogy has to be one of the worst decisions in the history of everything, i don’t hold anything against Lopez, it’s just that the whole idea of a loogy it’s just plain stupid.
2007: 8.84 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 2.51 K/BB, 18 LD%,
.306 BABIP
2008: 7.95 K/9, 5.70 BB/9, 1.39 K/BB, 17.8 LD%,
.242 BABIP
Dice-k has been a worst pitcher so far than last year, if you wanna go by joe morgan’s stats then fine, he has been lucky, and in baseball luck doesn’t lasts much.
Absolutely he has been lucky. Doesn’t change that he’s 8-0 with a low ERA. Will he end the season like that? Of course not. But I DO think there’s reason for optimism that he can progressively lower his BB/9.
I hope the Gagne disaster from last season doesn’t discourage Theo from entering the market for a prime setup man around the deadline. The road woes will be solved, I have faith. The offense and starting pitching are adequate. The bullpen depth, on the other hand, is the biggest concern. In order to repeat, we need a boost in the pen.
Harden, Street & Crosby for a half-dozen blocked minor league players, including several of my guys: Coco or Moss, Masterson or Bowden, Lowrie or Diaz, Kalish or Reddick, Hansen or MDC, someone from A-level. Three problems solved: Bullpen Ace backup for Paps, a SS who would thrive at Fenway, a wounded Ace to give us 10 -15 quality starts this year and perhaps a full season next. We lose great talent, but talent which is totally blocked. We win the WS. What’s not to like?