Talk about your loaded question: should the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis for Mark Teixeira?
The logic? The Red Sox upgrade their long-term power output and put them in position to, perhaps, jettison Manny Ramirez after the year. The Red Sox do not have many holes and a lot of depth at one particular position that interests a lot of teams: starting pitching. In addition, they have a nice stable of outfielders and some intriguing infield prospects as well. The Red Sox could easily outbid any team for any player, but if, and only if, the Sox were so inclined. Teixeira, to me, represents a player worth the cost.
Teixeira is an impending free agent and will certainly command a large investment, doubly so with Scott Boras at the helm. These factors are what persuaded the Texas Rangers to trade him to the Atlanta Braves last year, and the Braves are a franchise that cannot match the wallet of Rangers owner Tom Hicks, so the possibility that he opens next year in an uniform not of the Braves design is rather high.
The Braves, expected to be contenders, are instead two games under .500 at 40-42 and sit 3.5 games out of first. To be sure, the season is far from over when the margin is that slim, so a trade of Teixeira would almost certainly not happen unless the Braves fall out of the race moreso than they already have.
Those are the reasons to trade Teixeira. After all, if you’re a long shot to make the playoffs, why let your big slugger walk without getting pieces in return?
Truth be told, why wouldn’t the Braves make this deal, even if they stayed in the hunt?
Part of what makes this trade a bit curious for the Red Sox is that the Sox would actually lose production. Youkilis is off to a hot start at .313/.381/.548 and is projected to hit 27 homers. He has impeccable defense and appears poised to win the Gold Glove at the position two years in the running. He is 29-year old and cost-controlled for the next two years before hitting free agency.
The negatives? Well, for one, he suffered a rough second-half decline last year (.238/.356/.391, to be exact) and there’s no telling if it will repeat itself again this year. Second, Youk is what they call a late bloomer and this is only his third year as a starter, a gig he got when he was 27.
Lastly, while I have zero data points to back this up, I will tell you that I have read that Youkilis’ career track and body type make him a prime candidate to flame out quickly. In other words, it took him a while to reach the majors. He finally did, his star shone bright for a while, but he’ll soon collapse. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Youkilis will not be a starter by the time he finally hits free agency.
Texeira, on the other hand, is one year younger and seems to be in it for the long haul. He bests Youkilis in the power department historically (.285/.371/.534 to .285/.383/.453) but is actually lagging behind Youk this year at .277/.374/.497. Defensively, he won the Gold Glove at first two years preceding Youkilis’ reign and would have probably nabbed a third straight A.L. Gold Glove had he not been traded.
Teixeira would solve a nagging problem of power. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are no spring chickens, and Tex can certainly bash the homers. Since his 2003 rookie campaign, here are his homer totals through 2007: 26, 38, 43, 33, 30. A switch-hitter, he would add extreme versatility to the lineup. As good as Youkilis can be, Teixeira has him beat in terms of ceiling and power.
For the Red Sox, the question becomes: is this Kevin Youkilis’ high-water point? Can he sustain this over the rest of the year and the next few years to come? This is where the mistress called Reasonable Doubt comes into play (hat tip to Harlan Coben for the phrase). This may be the time to move him.
Of course, the Braves are going to ask for far more than Youkilis — as they should. Fortunately, the Red Sox will have no problem rounding out the trade. One person the Red Sox could dangle with the Braves instantly lapping it up is Michael Bowden, a true stud of a pitching prospect that seems to be blocked at the major league level. Would those two be enough to land Tex? Maybe, maybe not. But the third piece, if needed, would be largely irrelevant.
The Braves get a cost-controlled player for the next two years to replace Teixeira at first and a stud pitching prospect to work into the team as Tom Glavine makes his final victory lap.
I realize it may be heresy to actually contemplate trading “Youuuuuuk.” his “grit” and hard-nosed way of playing the game, but as any general manager (or at least the good ones) will tell you, emotion cannot be part of the equation. And if you take emotion out of the equation, Youkilis becomes eminently tradeable.
All in all, this trade may inevitably happen, but through different means: Teixeira signs as a free agent and Youkilis is either moved to left-field to compensate for the departure of Manny Ramirez or Youk is traded.
I asked Alex Remington of Chop n’ Change for his input as to the proposed trade. Follow the link to see his full thoughts, but check out this quote of his: “As far as I’m concerned, we’d be robbing them blind.” Hmm… would they?
Of course, I’m not naive enough to think that this trade actually has a chance in hell of it happening. But it is intriguing, nonetheless. And does it make sense? I think so. Do you?
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Whoa whoa whoa, nobody gets to trade my Masterson. yes, I admit I was willing to part with him for Santana, but now he’s untouchable.
I’ve already lost Sexy Lips and Wily Mo, nobody gets to take another one of my freaking favorite players away.
Haha okay Sean. Although I think watching that beautiful Teixeira swing scraping balls off and launching them over the monster would erase the memory of Masterson. It’s just a suggestion, but I think the Braves would jump at a guy like Masterson since they’re always desperate for bullpen help and I think he could be a starter in the NL.
Scraping balls off sounds a little wrong, my bad.
heh, scraping balls
nah, Youk is cheap and Texeira is going to want a boatload of money, when Youk reaches free agency, Lars will probably be ready to play in the majors.
btw, you guys realize we have to face Garza, Shields and Kazmir in this series vs the rays, HFS!!!!! we might get swept.
What Teixeira’s done with the Braves has started to turn my thinking, but I always thought he was overrated with Texas. Also he’s going to be stupidly expensive. But Youk is one of my favorite players, and I’m not a GM, I’m a fan and I want him to stay :).
Youk is the Rodney Dangefield of Red Sox critics . . . he “don’t get no respect.” Last year he finished his sophomore year in the majors at 1b with a “middling” .288/16/79, a Gold Glove, and a WS Ring. Just a few months later, by ST, the predicters predicted his imminent decline. In fact, I have before me Spring 2008 USA Sports Weekly which projects .276/16/79 and ranks him #9 in the AL and #20 in the Majors for fantasy purposes. Even in fantasy worlds he “don’t get no respect”. Could Youk be the most under-rated starter in baseball????
Could Youk tail off to those numbers? Could Papi or Tex start slow? Could Pedroia or Manny slump? The probability is, if Tito uses pro-hitter Mayor Casey to rest Youk as originally planned, then Youk won’t burn out this or any year and hit .300/30/100/highOBP & OPS, which is Tex territory, and stay there for years. Body-type flame out theories aside, Anderson may have to wait awhile.
Another thought. If we would be willing to give up Youk and, God forbid, Bowden and others for someone who is perhaps marginally better than Youk, and far more expensive, why wouldn’t we consider solving a couple of real problems by going after Hanley or Tulowitski? or Putz or Street?
Good article, well reasoned, but like Shane, I not only respect Youk, but am a fan. And, the way the Sox aren’t putting pitching/hitting/runs together, Jc is right about a possible sweep, again.
Youk for Teixeira would be a massive screwjob by Theo. I love Youk, and the money issues are important, but if you ever have a chance to nab Texeira you go for it.
I see no reason why the Braves would want a high-OBP, relatively low SLG type like Youkilis, especially in what seems to be his career year. I say we go for Teix in the offseason free agent market, at which point we can dangle Youk for some help then. Hopefully he’ll have a third WS ring to “increase his value” by then.
Straight up I would do this trade in a second, I wouldn’t even blink. Youk is a nice player and certainly a fan favorite, but Texiera is younger and better, do you see Youk ever hitting 43 homers like Tex did at age 25. As someone who lives in Atlanta and watches him on a regular basis I can tell you firsthand that he is not overrated. If you can get a stud 1st baseman entering the prime of his career I think it becomes a no-brainer. The money isn’t an object because this the Red Sox not the As we’re talking about and the team has already created enough salary flexibility to keep a guy like this long-term.
I don’t think that the Braves are dumb enough to swap him straight for Youk, but I could see them liking Kevin since he’s the type of guy they could hold down long-term to play 3rd or 1st. I would like to hold on to Bowden since at 21 he’s got a really high ceiling as a starter and may have a place in the rotation once Wake retires.
I think if you can do the deal for Youk, Masterson, and maybe one of the Kalish, Lin, Reddick group, that would be a solid enough package to get Tex to Boston, and if someone else enters the bidding the Red Sox have more to offer than most, having Mark in Boston long-term would also make a prospect like Lars Anderson a very valuable trading chip.
Bottom-line you get younger and better. Tex is as good or better than Youk defensively and unlike Youk he’s a pure 1st baseman, who barring injury will probably be hitting late into his 30s.
Only if we can sign him to an extension, of course. Then yes you make this deal in a split second. I’d even include a nice prospect if they demanded.
I’d make that deal in a heartbeat, even with a decent pitching prospect tossed in. That said, I would not give him an eight-year extension; so if that’s what Teix is going to want, no way.
Texeira for Youk + Masterson + Reddick + trading Anderson later = using mega talent to solve a NON-problem.
We have real problems, only tow of them: RP and SS.
By this reasoning, we trade Lowrie + Masterson + plus Reddick + Diaz later for Tulowitski. I would rather put Lowrie at SS, keep Masterson, Reddick and Diaz. Under these circumstances, I would also rather keep Youk. We still haven’t seen his high side.
1) Tulo is not going anywhere. He signed a long-term extension and the Rockies made it to the WS last year.
2) This IS probably Youk’s high side.
You guys know there’s no chance that Youkilis will hit 40 homers for you, right? The year’s half over, and he’s a free agent. If you want 40 homers you’ll have to pay full price for the privilege. At least we’d get to keep Youkilis for two and a half years — of course, that’s about how long he usually takes to hit 40.
I think that if the trade was youk, bowden, and a lower prospect then do the trade. texiera will be a huge part of the lineup for the next 6 or 7 years assuming an extention. he would likely bat 3rd and it would make getting rid of manny that much easier if the upper management wanted to let him go
Yeah we get it, hence why I said Youk will never hit 40 homers like Tex has. The Braves probably won’t be sellers barring some huge losing streak anyways.
I would prefer to hold on to Bowden since he’s been really dominant this year at age 21, reports say that his velocity is up and because of that I think he has a chance to be a real special pitcher, he’s already more advanced than Clay was at this age. If Theo trades any of the young pitchers my thoughts are it should be Masterson who has the lowest ceiling.
Last year it was Lester, Masterson, Bowden for Santana. This year it’s Youk, Masterson or Bowden or Zink for Tex???
We would actually give up a virtually equivalent player (who is having a better year than Tex) and a fan favorite, plus Masterson, Zinc or Bowden, and a big salary, for maybe an extra dozen HR???? That doesn’t add up. And, when those rare trade chips are gone, how do we get a true lights-out Gagne replacement for the Pen?
Stick with Youk. 2008 is not an anomoly, it is a progression from part-time 2005 – 06 – 07 to what he has stated he wants to achieve and sustain: .300BA, 25HR, 100RBI, High OBP and a Gold Glove. Will that get him the respect he deserves?
how does masterson have the lowest ceiling? he has been pretty impressive so far this year
not to be picky, but do you know what a loaded question is?
Straight up? Youk for Tex? that is almost laughable … and I certainly wouldn’t hesitate for a second … but that’s not gonna happen … maybe in a roundabout way … as in we sign Tex in the offseason and then ship off Youk … or Lowell … for something else … but yeah I doubt thats gonna happen … even less likely with Lowell … no as much as I wish I really don’t think Texiera is gonna be the answer to our power shortage … we may be stuck with it for a while unfortunatly … the good news is we have the potential to make up for it with stellar pitching … we have some weaknesses longterm but I think we are much better off than alot of teams
Any way this could work…
Sox get: Teixeira, Mike Gonzalez
Braves get: Youk, Moss, Hansen, Bowden
My thinking is that the Sox could use Gonzalez (assuming he’s healthy) in a primary setup role. Moss is expendable because of the OF’s tearing up AAA. Gonzalez seems like a better fit in our bullpen than Hansen, who could become a decent closer in Atlanta, pitching in the NL. The deal still seems somewhat uneven to me, so I threw in Bowden, though perhaps that could be Pauley or Hansack or some other lower-ceiling pitching prospect.
Either way, I don’t see this happening. I think it’s also likely that Teixeira would prefer to test the market anyway, as he’ll have plenty of suitors, and a lot more leverage that way. Plus, this is probably his one big payday, and he’ll want as long a contract as he can get. IMO, it’s not in the Sox’s interest to give him a 7- or 8-year deal, even if Anderson doesn’t develop into a stud.
I’d rather invest in Sabathia or Sheets than Teixeira; it’s easier to find pop than quality starting pitching. And, doesn’t the possibility of something like Beckett-Sheets-DiceK-Buchholz-Lester make your mouth water just a bit?
Although I like the thought of Tex at 1st, a trade for power cannot happen without Manny being one of the players shipped out. It is Manny’s clubhouse and I doubt he takes kindly playing alongside his eventual replacement.
Manny ain’t a moron (well, yeah, sometimes he is). He has to know that the Sox lineup will not feature himself, Papi and Tex (imagine that!), so after working equally as hard all winter getting in top shape and becoming more friendly with the press this year – all with an eye on the $20m options the Sox hold – I just cannot see him taking such a trade well. And Manny being Rebellious will not be a pretty sight.
All of which does not rule out a trade. Theo is not a fan of Manny, reportedly anyway, but would he ship Manny out, pull a shocker like he did with Nomah? after Manny’s latest incident I guess it’s possible.
So would Atlanta want him? Would the favored Sox risk losing him? How about Sox fans, how deeply would they sink into depression?
One thing is for sure; ultimately it will happen, and it will be hard replacing Manny.
Mike Gonzalez walks to many to be considered a solution. He’s also a lefty and Lopez has been doing fine in that role.
The Sox need a stud late inning guy, but only as an upgrade to what they already have. Think Mormol or Broxton, or someone else of that quality.
I’m sorry, I typoed in a major, really stupid way. The above comment should read:
You guys know there
[...] deadline. Evan Brunell over at Fire Brand of the American League would love for us to bring over Teixeira in return for Kevin Youkilis and, say, Michael Bowden. In response, Alex Remington at Braves blog Chop-n-Change [...]