Let’s take a break from the Manny furor for a second…
Ever since Jed Lowrie took over at shortstop, the furor over the production out of shortstop immediately abated; Red Sox fans had their guy in place.
Unfortunately, Lowrie has done everything but run away with the job. Through Wednesday, he was hitting .250/.342/.281 with one double in his eight hits over 32 at-bats. Small sample size? Yes. Enough to supplant Julio Lugo? No.
On the defensive end, I can see what his detractors speak of in terms of his range, but he’s also quite sure-handed. He has yet to make an error on the season and has a 4.41 range factor at short with an .889 zone rating. Comparing that with the qualifying shortstops in the major leagues shows Lowrie would rank first in fielding percentage (unsurprisingly, that’s small sample size at work here), a surprising sixth in range factor (doth my eyes deceive me?) and first in zone rating. That’s pretty good. It means Lowrie can get to the balls in terms of range and is the best shortstop in getting to balls assigned to his defensive zone.
What does this mean? Well, it means that if he can keep up those statistics, he will easily be among the best defensive shortstops in the major leagues. It would be far, far easier to overlook his lack of power if he was another Alex Gonzalez with the glove.
His batting line isn’t worth getting worked up over. He’s 24, this is his rookie year, he only has 74 career at-bats to his name and he’s shown that he does have the offensive profile to succeed in the big leagues.
That being said, it’s clear that Lowrie may not be the heir apparent at shortstop, not with the news that the Red Sox looked at Miguel Tejada and were rebuffed by the Houston Astros. If the Sox are looking at Tejada, it would be to start at shortstop, and it would be to remain the starter post-Lugo return. Heck, there was a rumor (who knows if it’s true) that the Red Sox were willing to flip Jed Lowrie to Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson.
What ramifications does this have? For one, Julio Lugo’s grasp on the starting job is tenuous at best, both now and in the off-season. Two, the Red Sox aren’t neccessarily predisposed to Lowrie as the answer. Could the Sox make a run at Rafael Furcal in the offseason? Revisit the Tejada talks?
With today being the trade deadline, the focus is going to be on if Manny is traded or if the Red Sox can get a reliever — as well as it should be, and we’ll be around all day to chat about any potential trades. But the Red Sox aren’t going to be perfect, trade or no trade, and one place where they’ll be trying to upgrade in the coming months will be shortstop, unless Jed Lowrie suddenly morphs into a .300/.400/.500 hitter. For one reason or another, the hype surrounding Lowrie has been muted compared to the hype that surrounded Dustin Pedroia.
For that reason, I think Lowrie could very well be trade bait this coming year. If they’re already looking to replace Lugo and don’t seem particularly high on Lowrie, it might mean they have other plans for short. The coming weeks with Lowrie at shortstop will go a long way towards dictating what approach the Sox take in the offseason for short, and there’s no definitive answer that can be made now except for this: as of this moment, the Red Sox are interested in bringing in a new shortstop to man the position. To replace Julio Lugo. To relegate Jed Lowrie back to Pawtucket.
Is Jed Lowrie in the Red Sox plans? For the rest of the year, absolutely. For the rest of his career? The jury’s out.
You tell me: Do you want to see Lowrie as the permanent shortstop or do you agree with the Sox attempting to bring in a new shortstop? Can Lowrie ever hit and field to be a solid starting shortstop?
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The bat is there, he works the count well and has above average pop for a SS. The glove hasn’t looked that bad either. In my humble opinion, his upside is Jeter-lite. Slightly worse bat than Jeter I see him as .280/.375/.425 on the upside, but slightly better defense than Jeter (less fistpumps though).
I don’t know why the Red Sox are so eager to trade him for the like of Tejada or Wilson, I think he’s already more valuable than those two. In Finance we talk about present value and time value. Lowrie may have a present value similar to those of Tejada or Wilson, but his time value is far greater. Tejada is a steroid user, who gained 2 years in age this season and will have to move to 3rd in a year. Wilson has a good glove, but no stick (and watching the last series I don’t think defense is the issue, its clearly the offense that needs hel).
Why not give Lowrie a shot, If he turns into Bill Mueller or Dustin Pedroia I think we can all be happy.
I don’t see him as the Shortstop of Tomorrow for Boston.
He has always had the bat, generally exceeding Bob’s upside projections, so he shouldn’t be worse than those projections. Even at those projections, with his good glove and arm, he seems destined to become one of the best SS in the league. In early fantasy projections, Lugo was ranked #7 in the AL. Lowrie is already better.
Like Buchholz, he is young and scrawny and will add power as he fills out, and is getting better and surer with every game . . . but while Lugo is out, he is still sharing the position with AC. For my money, he is our SS of through 2010, and will probably move to 3b when Mike leaves, and one of the excellent younger prospects move up.
Come on Theo and Tito, Lowrie has already been a difference maker. His average has dipped since the ASB, just like most of the team. if you can stick with Pedroia, JD and Coco last year, and you can stick like glue to Julio this year, you can give this kid a real shot.
Hey guys, I really like Lowrie. I’m not a Red Sox fan, but I’ve followed him for a while and think he’s a great fit for Boston. He has an excellent plate approach and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He’s a .290+ hitter, with an OBP range close to .400. Of all teams, Boston should understand the importance of high OBP/high pitches per PA hitters early in the order.
The slugging will never be great, but a switch hitting doubles hitter will always play well at Fenway, and the defense is sound. I think it would be a huge mistake to let Lowrie go for a guy like Wilson, and a catastrophic mistake to try a guy like Tejada. It might make the team a little bit better this year, but it would be detrimental in the long run.