With the acquisition of Paul Byrd and return of Tim Wakefield in two weeks, the short-term future of Clay Buchholz is very much in doubt. He may be starting on Sunday, but it doesn’t mean that his future is intact. Tim Wakefield? Bartol Colon?
Buchholz has struggled this year to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 14 starts (72.2 innings). He got off to an encouraging start to the year, posting a 4.08 ERA in April but has quickly deteriorated since and spent time in the minors to establish his fastball. He was able to dispatch of minor league hitters with aplomb and was summarily recalled to the majors, but his old tricks flared up again.
It’s hard to watch his starts because you see how much this kid genuinely cares and how he starts aiming pitches, falling back on his off-speed stuff, doing anything to staunch the bleeding. But it’s not working. It’s not that he’s pitching badly, he’s just terribly unlucky and a rookie in every sense of the word.
What can be done? Nothing much other than patience. What should be done? How about turning him into a reliever?
It would remove the pressure of starting games which can be crushing for certain people. It allows him to bring his best stuff immediately and not pace himself. If he gets into trouble, Terry Francona will not be as inclined to allow him to try to work out of it. String a few good games together and perhaps his confidence is back.
Of course, you risk damaging his psyche, shaking his confidence. There is a difference between making Justin Masterson a reliever and Clay Buchholz a reliever. Masterson did nothing wrong whereas Buchholz may view it as a demotion.
The concern of turning him into a reliever is excerbated by his pitch counts. Pitches 1-15 have a 9.90 ERA and .333 BAA attached to them. The numbers are poor except for pitches 31-60 and 76-105. Those are not encouraging numbers for someone you are considering turning into a reliever.
At this point, however, I don’t see a downside towards trying Buchholz out as a reliever. Best case is morphing into another Justin Masterson and shutting down batters en route to a veteran rotation getting the Sox another ring. Worst case, he can’t turn things around, but that’s where we are right now.
In the wake of witnessing the 19-17 game in person, adding a live arm the quality of Buchholz to the bullpen might just be the medicine needed. What say you?
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It’s almost certain that the Sox plan to move Buchholz to the pen, given the acquisition of Paul Byrd. And unless he gets all pouty about it, it’s the right move.
I think Buchholz’ future is in the rotation, but he’s still adjusting to the major leagues, and a team in contention can’t afford to let him struggle. (If this was Pittsburgh or Oakland, you could just let him learn at the big-league level.) His only chance to be a contributor in 2008 is in relief. He might turn out to be a good complement to Masterson: they could take turns pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen when needed. If he can’t pitch out of the pen, send him to Pawtucket for a bit more seasoning.
I like the idea, I was going to say I hated it, but thought about it again and I like it.
His biggest problem is fastball command. He’s got a live fastball (although it is straight), but for whatever reason can’t command it and seems afraid to throw it. Working out of the pen would force him to use the fastball and to throw strikes.
The biggest concern would be his mental health. He seems to have folded this season when things got tough. In a lot off ways I think it was him buying into his own hype too much and then being stunned by adversity. Let him stay at the major league level and let him pitch out of then pen and then COMPETE for the 5th spot in the rotation next year. Throw it to him and Bowden and let them fight it out in spring training, the winner will be made better and mentally tougher by it because they know the other is breathing down their neck.
Bob,
You said it all.
I wanted to see it last year in September before the shoulder “tiredness” and would love to see it this year. I would not take it as a blow to my psyche if I were in Clay’s shoes. It just wouldn’t work to move Wake, Colon or Byrd to the pen (assuming Wake and Colon are healthy) – Clay is more flexible, and you’d move him in hopes that you’d be adding a live arm in a position of weakness. That said, I’m not sure Clay and I look at the world through the same lens. Aren’t there rumors that he dates a penthouse model?
Clay just turned 24 this week. If his very young ego and arm weather this traumatic year he will surely be the Ace we expect, in 2009. The timing is wrong to send him to Pawtucket, as he would be called up again in two weeks at the 9/1 roster expansion. We will soon have 3 pitchers for one slot: Buchholz, Colon, Wakefield. 1 or 2 of them might wind up in the Pen. IMO, you present the best solution both for the rookie and for the Red Sox stretch run. But who leaves the Pen?
IMO, if Buchholz pulls it together this year, I don’t see Bowden competing against him in S.T., and hope he gets the time in AAA to develop that Buchholz never did.