The date: August 22. The significance? Not only is September baseball around the corner, a stress-filled month jam packed with pennant races, sleepless nights with AL East standings flashing in your head and flashbacks of Jason Varitek chasing that high fastball to end the game (okay, maybe this is all just me), it also means September call-ups. While most are just roster fodder called up for their chance to sit in a major league dugout for a pennant race, some actually serve key roles that can help a contending team make the postseason.
For the Red Sox, most of their supreme minor league talent is found at the lower levels. They just spent tons of money on the draft to sign outstanding talents like Peter Hissey, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly and Derrick Gibson, continuing this front office
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Didn’t know that about Bard’s confidence issues, and based on that I hope he gets ample time in AA and AAA. Thanks for that. But the info leads me to a soap box, because it is such an important issue.
It is so short-sighted and wasteful to bring someone up too early because we need a body right now (Hansen, Buchholz, Masterson.) I guess we tend to forget that ballplayers, like everyone else, develop unevenly. How many really smart but small HS athletes have we seen sit on the bench until their body fills in and they reach their potential; or physically mature seniors with their minds out in space. At some point it all comes together, and until it does, something is missing.
It is on this point that I can’t agreee with Bob that high-production minor leaguers can “age out”. Even at the MLB level, Youk is maturing as a hitter this year, at age 28-29, while Dustin matured early at age 24-25. Both should be .300 hitters with power for the rest of their careers. At 28, isn’t it possible that 30HR hitter J.Bay might regularly hit 35 – even 40HR and more extra base hits by tweaking his swing a little to bring the Wall and Williamsburg into play?
Carter at 25-26 has ALWAYS been a great hitter, and with projected .300/30HR at Pawtucket, seems ready now, knowing his D will develop further. The older Bailey (.300, 30), Van Every (.280, 30, speed), Thurston (.316, 2nd in the league, 15HR), Brown (.280, 15HR, good behind plate), Smith, Zinc all appear to have finally gotten it all together at the same time, in 2008, but we won’t know if this progress is sustainable unless they get a good shot at Fenway.
If they get their shot and do well, we can use their considerable talents, or get good value in a trade which will help the team. Without a real chance to prove themselves, they have little value either way.
I agree 100% on these 3, with caveats. The struggles of Buchholz and Hansen (and Ellsbury’s hitting) derive at least in part from spending too little time developing in AAA. That said, your September call-up could help this team and the players . . . as long as they went back to Pawtucket for a month or two in 2009. IMO, Dusty Brown’s #’s and skills behind the plate (and he is improving steadily in AAA), make him the real deal who could become one of the better catchers in the league.
About the rest of the gang in Pawtucket now, I couldn’t disagree more about their future. If we correctly judge Bowden, Bard, Smith, etc. by their numbers, their accompllishments, then these same standards must apply universally. Bailey, Carter, Van Every are for average, and had been fighting for the league lead in HR and other categories. Former top prospect Joe Thurston’s reclamation is almost complete: .317BA (with power) is second in the IL. He is fast, plays as many positions as Shone Figgins . . . well . . . and plays with energy. The new guys Danielson and Corsaletti are all around solid.
Pauley and Zinc (his one bad outing was just that) are leading the league in several categories. Hunter Jones should be ready next year. Combined, the PawSox are battlng the Yankees for the championship. Most of these guys would be starters on a number of MLB teams. We would do well to find a role for them, or free them in a trade which benefits the 2009 team.
I can see Carter, Bailey or Van Every as 4th OF or 1B/DH when Coco is traded or if Sean moves on; and Thurston may be a better all around 4th IF than Cora or Lugo (better bat & glove in more positions, with much of Julio’s speed). Think about it outside the box. Imagine a bench with decent to very good D, lots of power, high BA, OBP and Energy. This describes Brown, Carter, Bailey or Van Every).
I disagree that we have to apply the same standards of judgement to everybody. Bowden and Bard are clearly better prospects than the older guys for the simple reason of age. Carter, Bailey and Van Every are several years older and have repeated AAA. That said, I think we should definitely see Carter in September, Bailey is already with the team right now and will probably stay put and we may see Van Every. Bowden has an outside shot, but the Red Sox will probably give Colon or Pauley a start before him especially considering that he is very young for both AAA and the majors and he’s probably nearing his innings limit. I don’t think that we’ll see Bard. He’s had an excellent year, but the Red Sox are going to want to see improvement on his secondary stuff before calling him up, you can overpower batters in AA, you need a breaking ball of some sort to pitch in the majors. Brown is complicated by the Ross signing so I’d say 50/50 on him. They might want to give him a look, but do they really want to carry 4 catchers around?
Carl Pavano is pitching for the Yankees on Saturday. Who wants to take bets on which inning he leaves with a minor injury? I’ve got the 3rd.
Bard shouldn’t get the call. He is a little mentally fragile and I think we should just let him continue to close in double-a and get his confidence as high as possible. This guy was a complete disaster last year and was seeing a psychologist to deal with his struggles….which were all considered to be due to his lack of confidence. I think you take the long view with this kid, especially considering his control, while vastly improved, is sill not great.
Carter is on the DL with a quad strain so its a moot point. Honestly I’d see Bailey becoming a bench player for the Red Sox before him. The problem with Carter is that he has no position. He’s inadequate defensively at 1st and we already have a great 1st baseman right now (Youk) and a better prospect for the future (Anderson). Anderson has an above average glove at the position and he’s 5 years younger than Carter. Carter has no place in the outfield either, Ellsbury, Bay, and Drew are set for next year, and in 2010 when Bay’s contract is up we’d probably see Reddick who again is younger, with a great bat and above average defense. As for Carter as a 4th outfielder it’s unlikely because he provides little value as a defensive replacement. While Carter is a great bat his value is severely undermined by his lack of a position and it’s hard to say if his glove will improve, I doubt the team is going to test that at the major league level in any case. The Red Sox already have the best DH in the game. I think if Carter heals in time we’ll probably see him in September in an audition for a trade that could bring back a young reliever. Van Every and Thurston are good to have at the minor league level as depth and maybe one of them will be on the Red Sox bench next season, but probably not both. It’s not that I have any personal dislike for these players, I think Carter especially has some value, I just don’t see where it happens on the Red Sox.
Chris Smith was called up today. I actually like him, there are plenty of guys like him who have made productive careers as relievers. In any case he gives the bullpen much needed depth with Aardsma and J-Lo getting lit up lately.
Wow, that was really long, I apologize.
Actually, thanks for the long explanation, as it sheds light on these prospects, making your points very clearly. Your reasoning clarifies my own thinking. Thanks.