Three Worthy Call-Ups

August 22, 2008 at 12:45 AM

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The date: August 22. The significance? Not only is September baseball around the corner, a stress-filled month jam packed with pennant races, sleepless nights with AL East standings flashing in your head and flashbacks of Jason Varitek chasing that high fastball to end the game (okay, maybe this is all just me), it also means September call-ups. While most are just roster fodder called up for their chance to sit in a major league dugout for a pennant race, some actually serve key roles that can help a contending team make the postseason.

For the Red Sox, most of their supreme minor league talent is found at the lower levels. They just spent tons of money on the draft to sign outstanding talents like Peter Hissey, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly and Derrick Gibson, continuing this front office��s trend of building successfully from the bottom up and pouring major resources into the draft. Pawtucket��s record is gaudy, but none of those players are big-time prospects other than one (more on him later), so most of the talent is in Portland, Lowell, Greenville and Lancaster. There are three players, two from AAA and one from AA, who I feel can make contributions to the Red Sox in September and deserve a call-up:

Michael Bowden (AAA): Prior to Lars Anderson tearing up Portland, Bowden was widely considered the Red Sox top prospect down on the farm. He��s had an outstanding 2008 season for a 21-year old who will turn 22 in September. Bowden dominated Portland with a 2.33 ERA, 4.21 K/BB and only 72 H allowed in 104.1 impressive innings before earning a promotion to Pawtucket where he��s gone 0-3, but with a 3.21 ERA and in each of his last starts he��s gone six innings while allowing only one run.

His fastball normally sits at 93-94 with a hard 12-6 curve and a developing changeup that��s showing progress. Bowden can contribute to a rotation suddenly in flux next month. With the Red Sox playing so many divisional foes, his new arsenal can provide quality innings and shore up the back end with Buchholz��s demotion, Wakefield��s shoulder, Beckett��s numbness and Colon still in AAA (albeit pitching well). Bowden has earned the chance to start with his phenomenal 2008 season and the Red Sox would be wise to hand him the ball the first given opportunity, even if he��s not on the 40-man roster.

Daniel Bard (AA): Has Daniel Bard finally figured it out? After what appeared to be a lost career at this time last year in Lancaster, Bard has put up outstanding numbers in 2008, overpowering hitters out of the bullpen at both Greenville and Portland. His numbers in high-A are ungodly: .129 BAA, 43 K in 28 IP and a 0.64 ERA. In Portland, he��s proved no fluke: .176 BAA, 61 K in 47 IP and a 2.11 ERA, including allowing just two runs in July and August combined. This move is tricky in that Bard would outright skip Pawtucket straight for the big leagues, but I feel the Red Sox should take a chance, even though any struggles could hurt his confidence.

His fastball finds the mid-90s consistently, and Bard is able to compliment that with a two-seamer in the low-90s that finishes with late movement. His slider and changeup need refinement, but are developing drastically and have taken major strides this season. Bard even added more movement to his fastball with an arm slot drop this season. Remember what Papelbon provided late in 2005 out of the bullpen as a fresh power arm? The Red Sox bullpen could use another viable arm and Bard more than fit��s the bill.

Dusty Brown (AAA): This one was the most realistic before the Red Sox signed David Ross, but I��d like to see Dusty Brown get a shot anyway. He��s 26 years old in AAA and not a top catching prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but he��s done his job very adequately this season: .286/.377/.475, and can catch the knuckleball. I prepared this article prior to the signing of Ross, which isn��t a bad one when you check out his OBP and see that he��s a stellar defensive backstop, but Brown is on the 40-man roster and has contributed very steadily this year. Hopefully, Brown could make a good impression and the Red Sox would be able to part ways with Kevin Cash. His bat undoubtedly has more pop.

It could be the case all three of these players don��t sniff the majors this season; the Bowden decision depends mostly on the health of Wakefield, Beckett and Colon down the stretch, Bard is still in double-A and the front office will likely opt against moving him to the majors so soon, and Brown��s chances may be ruined with the acquisition of Ross. With the minor league seasons these three players are having, they deserve a shot in the big show, especially with the tremendous ceiling of Bowden and Bard and their ability to contribute immediately in spots of pressing need. We��ll see if the front office agrees.

Categories: Daniel Bard, Dusty Brown, Michael Bowden

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Discussion

8 Comments on "Three Worthy Call-Ups"

Posted by gerry, August 22, 2008 12:12 AM

Didn't know that about Bard's confidence issues, and based on that I hope he gets ample time in AA and AAA. Thanks for that. But the info leads me to a soap box, because it is such an important issue.

It is so short-sighted and wasteful to bring someone up too early because we need a body right now (Hansen, Buchholz, Masterson.) I guess we tend to forget that ballplayers, like everyone else, develop unevenly. How many really smart but small HS athletes have we seen sit on the bench until their body fills in and they reach their potential; or physically mature seniors with their minds out in space. At some point it all comes together, and until it does, something is missing.

It is on this point that I can't agreee with Bob that high-production minor leaguers can "age out". Even at the MLB level, Youk is maturing as a hitter this year, at age 28-29, while Dustin matured early at age 24-25. Both should be .300 hitters with power for the rest of their careers. At 28, isn't it possible that 30HR hitter J.Bay might regularly hit 35 - even 40HR and more extra base hits by tweaking his swing a little to bring the Wall and Williamsburg into play?

Carter at 25-26 has ALWAYS been a great hitter, and with projected .300/30HR at Pawtucket, seems ready now, knowing his D will develop further. The older Bailey (.300, 30), Van Every (.280, 30, speed), Thurston (.316, 2nd in the league, 15HR), Brown (.280, 15HR, good behind plate), Smith, Zinc all appear to have finally gotten it all together at the same time, in 2008, but we won't know if this progress is sustainable unless they get a good shot at Fenway.

If they get their shot and do well, we can use their considerable talents, or get good value in a trade which will help the team. Without a real chance to prove themselves, they have little value either way.

Posted by gerry, August 22, 2008 1:42 AM

I agree 100% on these 3, with caveats. The struggles of Buchholz and Hansen (and Ellsbury's hitting) derive at least in part from spending too little time developing in AAA. That said, your September call-up could help this team and the players . . . as long as they went back to Pawtucket for a month or two in 2009. IMO, Dusty Brown's #'s and skills behind the plate (and he is improving steadily in AAA), make him the real deal who could become one of the better catchers in the league.

About the rest of the gang in Pawtucket now, I couldn't disagree more about their future. If we correctly judge Bowden, Bard, Smith, etc. by their numbers, their accompllishments, then these same standards must apply universally. Bailey, Carter, Van Every are for average, and had been fighting for the league lead in HR and other categories. Former top prospect Joe Thurston's reclamation is almost complete: .317BA (with power) is second in the IL. He is fast, plays as many positions as Shone Figgins . . . well . . . and plays with energy. The new guys Danielson and Corsaletti are all around solid.

Pauley and Zinc (his one bad outing was just that) are leading the league in several categories. Hunter Jones should be ready next year. Combined, the PawSox are battlng the Yankees for the championship. Most of these guys would be starters on a number of MLB teams. We would do well to find a role for them, or free them in a trade which benefits the 2009 team.

I can see Carter, Bailey or Van Every as 4th OF or 1B/DH when Coco is traded or if Sean moves on; and Thurston may be a better all around 4th IF than Cora or Lugo (better bat & glove in more positions, with much of Julio's speed). Think about it outside the box. Imagine a bench with decent to very good D, lots of power, high BA, OBP and Energy. This describes Brown, Carter, Bailey or Van Every).

Posted by Bob, August 22, 2008 9:17 AM

I disagree that we have to apply the same standards of judgement to everybody. Bowden and Bard are clearly better prospects than the older guys for the simple reason of age. Carter, Bailey and Van Every are several years older and have repeated AAA. That said, I think we should definitely see Carter in September, Bailey is already with the team right now and will probably stay put and we may see Van Every. Bowden has an outside shot, but the Red Sox will probably give Colon or Pauley a start before him especially considering that he is very young for both AAA and the majors and he's probably nearing his innings limit. I don't think that we'll see Bard. He's had an excellent year, but the Red Sox are going to want to see improvement on his secondary stuff before calling him up, you can overpower batters in AA, you need a breaking ball of some sort to pitch in the majors. Brown is complicated by the Ross signing so I'd say 50/50 on him. They might want to give him a look, but do they really want to carry 4 catchers around?

Posted by Bob, August 22, 2008 11:02 AM

Carl Pavano is pitching for the Yankees on Saturday. Who wants to take bets on which inning he leaves with a minor injury? I've got the 3rd.

Posted by JaredK, August 22, 2008 11:22 AM

Bard shouldn't get the call. He is a little mentally fragile and I think we should just let him continue to close in double-a and get his confidence as high as possible. This guy was a complete disaster last year and was seeing a psychologist to deal with his struggles....which were all considered to be due to his lack of confidence. I think you take the long view with this kid, especially considering his control, while vastly improved, is sill not great.

Posted by Bob, August 22, 2008 2:00 PM

Carter is on the DL with a quad strain so its a moot point. Honestly I'd see Bailey becoming a bench player for the Red Sox before him. The problem with Carter is that he has no position. He's inadequate defensively at 1st and we already have a great 1st baseman right now (Youk) and a better prospect for the future (Anderson). Anderson has an above average glove at the position and he's 5 years younger than Carter. Carter has no place in the outfield either, Ellsbury, Bay, and Drew are set for next year, and in 2010 when Bay's contract is up we'd probably see Reddick who again is younger, with a great bat and above average defense. As for Carter as a 4th outfielder it's unlikely because he provides little value as a defensive replacement. While Carter is a great bat his value is severely undermined by his lack of a position and it's hard to say if his glove will improve, I doubt the team is going to test that at the major league level in any case. The Red Sox already have the best DH in the game. I think if Carter heals in time we'll probably see him in September in an audition for a trade that could bring back a young reliever. Van Every and Thurston are good to have at the minor league level as depth and maybe one of them will be on the Red Sox bench next season, but probably not both. It's not that I have any personal dislike for these players, I think Carter especially has some value, I just don't see where it happens on the Red Sox.

Chris Smith was called up today. I actually like him, there are plenty of guys like him who have made productive careers as relievers. In any case he gives the bullpen much needed depth with Aardsma and J-Lo getting lit up lately.

Posted by Bob, August 22, 2008 2:01 PM

Wow, that was really long, I apologize.

Posted by gerry, August 22, 2008 4:06 PM

Actually, thanks for the long explanation, as it sheds light on these prospects, making your points very clearly. Your reasoning clarifies my own thinking. Thanks.

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