Two years after the Japanese phenom known as Daisuke Matsuzaka became a Red Sox, he’s certainly been worth the money if all you care about are wins. Only Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia have won more games over the last two seasons. If you told me two years ago that he would be18-2 with a 2.80 ERA on September 21, my eyes would have bugged out. Wow! Worth the money!
Then my eyes would have bugged in once I let myself know he has thrown a paltry 163.2 innings, and only one other person out of the field of eight that have at least 17 wins has not gone over 200 innings (Mike Mussina — 189.1 innings). I would have swallowed hard at his 92 walks, which you have to go 15 pitchers down the win leaderboard to Edison Volquez (16-6, 3.29, 188.2) to get a number as high as that. And the pitcher after that to have cracked at least 78 walks is Ubaldo Jiminez, tied for 51st in the majors in wins at 11-12, 4.12, 185.2 innings.
Ahh… he’s got the wins. He’s got the ERA. But when are the innings and the spotless basepaths going to come?
With a minimum of 80 innings pitched, Dice-K is 124th out of 162 pitchers in K/BB, at 1.62. (Fausto Carmona is dead last at 0.82 — 69 walks, 52 strikeouts, holy cow!)
There is cause for hope, though. Before the All-Star Break, Dice-K’s K/BB ratio was 1.35. Since then, he’s at an even 2.00, which would rocket him up to 87th place, tied with such esteemed pitchers as Jamie Moyer, Aaron Cook, Jose Contreras and Jair Jurrjens. Eh, I suppose we’d take that.
Last year, he was able to contribute 204.1 innings. This year, he won’t even be able to crack 175. (He started 32 games last year, he will start 29 or 30 this year.) That’s a step backwards. Another step backwards occurs when you look at last year’s K/BB ratio: 2.51.
He’s gone way backwards. The wins have gone up, the losses and ERA down. But that doesn’t tell the whole story: Dice-K is simply not a valuable pitcher. He has turned into a five-inning pitcher who is one well-timed pitch away from a meltdown.
To give him credit, he has quite the pitches. They dip, dive and dart all over the place. He was just filthy against the Blue Jays, I was able to catch some of the game and the movement he was spinning off was unreal.
There could be many reasons for his decline. Perhaps the workload last year has affected him this year. Last year in the regular season, he tossed 3,482 pitches. This year, it’s at 2,725, but that number is misleading if considered in a vacuum — he’s throwing less pitches because he’s not lasting long into games. Perhaps this is his “sophomore slump.”
Whatever it is, Dice’s numbers aren’t as valuable as they look. That’s a concern heading into the postseason, because we’ll have to save our arms for when Dice-K’s turn comes around in the rotation. It could mean the difference between a 10-man or 11-man pitching roster.
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SeanO give me a Break. Tell Clif Lee 20+ Wins don’t matter. What do you want Dice-K to be 2-18.
No, I want him to have a 2.8 ERA and a 162 ERA+ like he does. I don’t give a damn about Lee’s 22 wins, I care that he has a 2.41 ERA and 183 ERA+. Lee also has 23 quality starts compared to only 14 for Matsuzaka. That means that Matsuzaka has won at least 4 times when he didn’t pitch well. And Lee has lost at least once when he’s pitched well.
The Red Sox are 2nd in the AL in runs scored, so let’s factor that into the discussion. Wins are the dumbest stat currently kept in baseball, and that includes RBI, holds and catcher ERA.
This is one of the better articles I have read this year . Every win I think is there a worse, less valuable pitcher who has the basic stat line like Dice-K’s. With the expanded stat information Dice-K’s season has been so easy to pick apart and degrade….the other side is when you consider that your #3 pitcher heading into the playoffs has an 18-2 record it is a rather luxurious problem to contemplate….as I mentioned in previous threads; the amazing part is that he has been able to achieve this record with a rather pedestrian and at times bad bullpen. Either way, despute #’s you should be lucky than you that you have a # 3 pitcher who is 18-2 going into the playoffs.
Oh, come on now. Dice-K can be annoying to watch, but how can you possibly say that he is “not a valuable pitcher”? He misses bats, he almost always works out of trouble. He didn’t just happen to be standing on the mound when somehow the Red Sox won 18 games. His stuff is so good, that he can win in spite of all the nibbling.
Yes, he can work on challenging the hitters. Yes, he need to reduce his pitch count and walk totals. I imagine he is still learning to pitch American-style; in Japan, he was expected to throw as many pitches as it took: 100, 150, 200 or more. In the US, he has to be efficient. In his second season here, he’s still a work in progress.
But so far, he is clearly worth the $100-million investment. What, you’d rather have Gil Meche or Barry Zito? 10 to 15 mill is the going rate for an established starting pitcher of average ability. Dice-K is substantially better than that, even with all the walks.
18-2. That is all that really matters.
What I find amazing is that he’s undefeated on the road and the Sox wont’ even end up over .500 on the road.
Although I love reading your articles, it astonishes me that you take such a tough tone on Dice-K, seeming to predict “meltdowns”, and saying he’s gone “way backwards”.
Last year, Jon Lester was a 5 inning pitcher with a 1.61 k/bb ratio, as a second year player. He was anything but the workhorse and staff ace he is this season.
Dice-K is now a second year MLB guy with among other things a .209 BAA pitching against AL lineups, and he has seemed to settle in by averaging over 6 innings per start from August.
As many people note, Dice-K does not seem like an inherently wild pitcher so much as he nibbles to get his Ks, and he may be accustomed to higher pitch counts. So its plausible that he will fix the walks ratio like Lester did in his third season.
If that happens, I agree with you that he will then be “NOT A VALUABLE PLAYER!” but rather a Cy Young type of package. He’ is of course one of a bunch of Red Sox pitchers that, if they stay healthy, make the future look even brighter than the recent glory years.
Also, I don’t think its always fair to hold that 100 million figure all on him. The posting system is not his fault. Dice-K’s actual take home salary is fair: its less than what Lugo plays for and less than what half the NY Spankees 25-man roster makes.
Anyway keep up the great writing, I sincerely mean it. Go Red Sox!
All,
I am one of the proponents of not holding Dice-K’s posting fee against him. However, from the lens of the Red Sox, they paid that $50 million for him, so that was the view I took in this article.
Dice-K is not a valuable pitcher because he is constantly working out of jams and depleting the bullpen. Troy is 100% correct that 18-2 is all that really matters (and I thought I made that clear in the article, apologies if I did not) but will I still trust him in the playoffs based on his 18-2 record? Not a chance.
I don’t make any presumptions about Dice next year. He’s clearly an immensely talented pitcher and it would be foolhardy for me to decree that he is worthless. However, for this year, he has gone way backwards. His run support is tremendous, and he has such crazy movement that he’s able to counteract his walks — but that will not happen forever. It will, at some point, come back to haunt him.
I would not rather have Meche or Zito, jv. Apologies if I sounded like I did. I’m a fan of Dice-K. He’s young, he’s got crazy movement. He could surpass 200 innings next year easily. He could start trusting his pitches more and end up walking less. He has that talent in him to have a season for the ages.
But for this year, for 2008, I look past his 18-2 record and I see cause for concern heading into the playoffs.
Another well considered article, but I agree with JH on this, and hope we are right. That $50M posting was a one time deal just to get him and, I understand, keep him out of the evil clutches of the NYY, who wanted him, and would have had a much better two years (combined 23 – 14 so far) with Daisuke in their rotation, rather than hitting against him. The Sox contract with Daisuke himself is a good deal for anyone who can win 15 games a year.
His pitching style? That’s how he pitches, what we knew we were getting, anxiety and all. Substitute some of those walks for hits (he would rather walk a man than allow an RBI hit), and his walks come down, but his hits and ERA go up, while his SO’s would decrease, though probably remain among the best in the majors.
Alternatively, if Tito allows him to run his pitch count to 150 – 160 pitches, Nippon-style, he will pitch into the 7th and 8th every time, and still win. Imagine how long those games would be??? Imagine the tranquilizers everyone would need???
In every game, Daisuke seems more of a chess-master than a slash and burner. We shouldn’t mess with it too much to meet our standards, any more than we should have been messing with Hansen or Buchholz.
Yesterday was one of his several masterpieces this year, and we will see more of them as he adjusts. It is entirely possible that a reason he won’t get 20 wins this season is his early bout with the Sox flu epidemic.
IMO, he joins Beckett (having a rare bad year) and Lester (having the first of many good years) as an Ace. These three are the foundation for a superb rotation for years to come. As Lou Merloni said yesterday, he is what he is, and if he won 20 games would have to be considered for the Cy Young . . . high pitch counts and all. Odds are that next year he will be competing with Beckett and Lester to be the first with 20W. We are lucky to have him.
First off, wins don’t matter, so let’s throw that right out, shall we?
Second, I completely disagree with the statement that he’s thrown fewer pitches because he’s not lasting long in each outing. He’s not lasting long because he has been hitting his pitch count earlier, which is the exact same measure. Obviously, the reason he’s thrown fewer pitches is that month on the DL.
Matsuzaka is valuable. Just because he’s rather erroneously getting some Cy Young chatter doesn’t mean he’s been anything but an asset. He is what he is: totally inefficient, but unhittable. In a playoff game, where the bullpen is less taxed, I’ll take 6 shutout innings from anyone.
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Sorry to chime in late on this one, I am on the road for work…but couldn’t let it pass…
Daisuke is frustrating and his component stats aren’t typical of a “good” pitcher…but what about Daisuke’s career has been typical?
I am all on the he’s not been as good as 18-2, 2.80 suggest…but “not valuable”?
Give me a break…that’s taking it a little to far. I’ll happily take his five or six scoreless vs. the pitcher we saw during the second half of last season.
And in the playoffs, give me five scoreless and I’ll be satisfied…give me six and I’ll actually be happy…seven and under three runs and I’ll be looking forward to taking that win and moving along.