What in the name of Mike Benjamin is AccuScore?
Straight from the horse’s mouth:
AccuScore Forecasts are generated by an unbiased, unemotional and powerhouse super-computer that carefully models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions (environment and opponent characteristics). Once the models are made, games are simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times. The averages of all these simulations are used to generate the AccuScore Game Forecast.
Okay, so what’s their forecast for the ALCS?
| RAYS VS RED SOX | SERIES | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Rays Win % | 47% | 54% | 50% | 43% | 47% | 44% | 50% | 48% |
| Red Sox Win % | 53% | 46% | 50% | 57% | 53% | 56% | 50% | 52% |
AccuScore simulations give Boston the slight edge in the series. The Red Sox are 53 percent favorites to reach their second consecutive World Series, and third in the last five seasons. Tampa won the division with two more wins in the regular season than Boston. The Rays also played incredibly well at home (57-24) and will have home-field advantage hosting four of the seven games at Tropicana Field. Both teams played under .500 on the road. Despite not having homefield, the Red Sox still hold the position as favorites.
Great, we’re going to win right?
I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it. Look, I know every writer for Fire Brand, present company included, picked the Sox in six.
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Well….. I guess it’s better than them saying we are going to lose the this series. Go Sox..
Update to my article: You might as well bet your mortgage on the Sox winning … I’m sure your local democrat is already penning a bill to buy up all the mortgages at risk of being lost due to irresponsible gambling habits as well as irresponsible spending … so why the hell not
I’ll bet the farm on it – GO SOX
I believe it was the W and his Secretary of T who wrote that one up. It was the dems who tried to also include simliar protection for those not living in mansions in West Palm Beach, but they don’t have sufficient votes. They will soon. So, careful who you bet your mortgage with. Go Sox.
FYI: Accuscore also has the Dodgers beating the Phillies by the same 53%-47%. Odd.
Instead of fantasy projections, which base their models off of what already happened this season, I’d rather just look at the numbers to see what already happened. The numbers say that the Sox are the better offense, even without Lowell, but the Rays are the better pitching staff and defenders. They’re more aggressive on the bases. The Rays have homefield and are dynamite at home.
All of that rightly makes me nervous for the Sox. But even though the Rays are better pitchers as a team, the Sox have the best two individual pitchers in the series in Lester and Papelbon, and that’s where a lot of our hopes are going to have to fall if we want to win this one. A strong Beckett would go a long way towards tipping the balance in our favor as well.