MVN: Most Valuable Network

#1

Posted by Sean O, October 26, 2008 2:13 AM

Teix. CC is a disaster waiting to happen with his build and milage. See if the Tigers would be interested in a disaster swap of lugo for willis, sign Teix, and make the somber decision that Lowell is a broken down $13m backup.

We have money to spend, and Darvish isn't walking through that door. If we can't make a productive trade (and looking at theo's history, I think that's a given), sign teix and call it a day.

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#2

Posted by SamR, October 26, 2008 4:56 AM

Agree on Teix. He comes as close as anyone to actually being worth the money. Agree on Lowell. I still believe he can be a solid, steady 3rd baseman for us but if he can be replaced by a younger, far better Tiexera, I think it's gotta be done. Definently agree on Lugo. If we can get anything for him its a plus. Also agree on CC if I remember your opinions of him correctly. I see no way he stays strong enough with that body and with his mental issues to earn the money he's gonna get paid. And of course, disagree on Theo. Though I'm thinking I probably shouldn't try and get into that tonight.

What do you think about a trade for Russell Martin Sean? Even on top of Tex? I mean think about this. A lineup with Papi-Tex-Martin-Youk-Bay. I know thats crazy but still. Freaking terrifying.

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#3

Posted by M.A.G, October 26, 2008 9:16 AM

I'm against a trade for Teixeira. I know he is a very good fist baseman indeed, but that's not a possition of need for the Sox. We got Youk, Lowell who can still rebound from his injury, and most importantly, we got our best prospect in that position: Lars Anderson, who is ascending through the ranks like a rockett. He could be on the big team as soon as late next year. So why block him? IMO a Trade for Teixeira is a marginal improvement right now, and a mistake in the long run. I preffer to take my chances with Lowell for the next inmediate future, and be ready for the comming of Anderson.

The big priority, as I said in previous posts is a catcher. In that place we got our biggest hole, and we don't have a real backup plan in the farms. If we can get Martin he will be a HUGE improvement for the lineup, securing at the same time the defensive quality, leadership and intangibles you cannot really sacrifice when you are considering a catcher.

A trade for Martin will be not only an inmediate improvement of the lineup, but an upgrade for the next decade.

Even if Lowell is really in his downfall, there is much more easy to find a quality first baseman than a catcher with Martin's capabilities. A guy like that is something very rare, and we probably are not gonna get another opportunity to land someone like him.

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#4

Posted by M.A.G, October 26, 2008 9:27 AM

sorry, I mean "Im against SIGNING Teixeira". I know he is a free agent.

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#5

Posted by Sean O, October 26, 2008 10:40 AM

Martin would be awesome, but even as bad as Colletti is, why would he ever trade The Franchise for any number of prospects? And, what kind of insane price would it cost from our farm?

I mean, unless Colletti is insane and trades Martin for Youk, they have first base covered with Loney out there for the foreseeable future. who knows what happens with Furcal, but ss is their only other hole (a familiar situation, because who knows if our sorta-SS in Lowrie is the real deal or no).

Depending on price, try for Salty or something that can catch-and-throw from Texas. Martin and Hanley are obviously the blue chippers in the NL, but I don't see any chance of us getting a player like that.

Just no to Tek as starter.

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#6

Posted by Gerry, October 26, 2008 11:40 AM

What angst. Build from the Sox system or bring in outsiders? Getting Tex and CC = doing both.

1. Texeira means using Mike as backup, or trading him for a catcher or RP. Tex's salary = Manny's, a wash. No defensive improvement, but replaces Manny's bat while keeping Bay's bat = a stronger lineup than we had even with a hot Manny.

2. Each top pitcher, CC/AJ/Ben, have potential health problems. Except CC is a horse who was abused. But if not overused anymore, he should have minimal health issues. His salary is washed by Schill/Tavarez/Byrd/Colon.

3. This is painful, but using Buchholz or Bowden as part of a trade for Martin or Salty becomes acceptable with CC in the rotation. Martin is awesome, but Salty has a very high side, and would reach it quickly working with Tek. Coco's salary washes this.

4. I like a rotation of JB, CC, DM, JL, J.Masterson and a pen of JP, Kevin Gregg, Oki, MDC, JL, DAa with Gronk or Hansack until Bowden, Jones or Bard are ready to move up.

5. I say Kevin Gregg because he could come in a package with Hanley. I know, it's a dream, but consider: their combined salaries of $8.5M absorb 1/3 or the Marlins payroll. Hanley's new 6/70 contract says he won't be in Miami long, and Gregg is on the block. Why not make the move now??? The Sox have plenty the Marlins could use, and Lugo (we pay his entire salary for two years) could replace Hanley free. Lugo's salary + Hanley's salary combined are less than Texeira's or Holliday's. Lugo, $18M cash, several players/prospects could bring Hanley home.

6. Tex, Martin/Salty, CC, Gregg, maybe Hanley = 100W, 230HR, 150SB with little to no increase in payroll, a loss of just a few internal prospects , and a loss of earlier pickups like Coco, Mike Lowell, Lugo. Sound ambitious? Why not.

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#7

Posted by Bob, October 26, 2008 12:12 PM

Hanley is not coming back at least until he hits free agency. I don't really understand how Martin became available either, but if he really is the Red Sox have to explore every option to obtain him. I wouldn't even blink at including Buchholz. Let's face it, the odds are against Clay ever becoming a great pitcher, the attrition rate in pitching prospects is unbelievably high. Martin on the other hand is a proven commodity and would be the 2nd best catcher in the AL (after Mauer of course).

You trade from a surplus to address a need. The Sox have a surplus of young pitching right now with probably only one rotation spot in the next 2-3 years to go to either Buchholz or Bowden so they can afford to trade one of them. On the other hand, the Red Sox have no one in the system who looks like a full-time major league catcher in the next 2 years, not even Jason Varitek. Salty has yet to prove that he can be a full-time catcher and his bat doesn't profile that great at 1st, Martin is BY FAR the best option. The Dodgers need pitching, a CF and some future infield help so why not offer Buchholz, Crisp, and pick two of Middlebrooks/Tejeda/Navarro/Diaz. None of those infielders is going to be in Boston next year so it doesn't sting too much. Crisp is easily replaced by Ellsbury, with Kotsay staying as the 4th outfielder/super-sub. The only person in the package that you hesitate to trade is Clay and frankly getting Martin for him doesn't bother me in the least.

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#8

Posted by Gerry, October 26, 2008 2:07 PM

IMO we really don't have to do anything this winter to be an aggressive 200HR, 125SB, 95-100W team with a reduced enough payroll to reduce ticket, beer and hot dog prices during the recession. Not a bad idea for Red Sox Nation.

Any upgrades like CC or Tex or Marte merely make the Sox invincible, taking the guess work out of winning it all in 2009.

With continued growth from Youk, Peds, JD, Ells, Lowrie, Bay; healthy production from Papi & Mike; and a Salty/coach-Tek combination, this remains one of the best lineups in baseball.

Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Wake, Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson = one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball.

Paps, Oki, MDC, Lopez, Aardsma, Gronk, Wake, Masterson, Bowden, Jones, Bard, Hansack = one of the best and deepest pens.

A bench of Bailey, Van Every, Thurston will produce .280/20-25/60/20sb, 850ops with decent D.
If Coco or Kotsay stick around, better yet.

The money is there. The talent is there. It's just a matter of deciding whether we want to smash or merely beat the competition.

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#9

Posted by Bob, October 26, 2008 2:20 PM

I have a feeling that out of Masterson, Bowden, Buchholz the only one who sees the rotation next year is Bowden. I don't think that Clay is ready for the majors and I think the Red Sox aren't going to trust him very soon (hopefully he's traded for Martin), Masterson is a reliever plain and simple, arm angle, stuff, both point to the pen and honestly that doesn't bother me at all, he's a real asset there and the Sox need a set-up man more than a 5th starter. Bowden will probably be the first guy up from Pawtucket if anyone gets hurt, he's definitely more of a pure starter than Masterson.

I don't like the idea of a Salty/Tek combo because two back-ups doesn't equal a starter. Tek may have the fielding skills, but he no longer has the bat to be an every-day catcher, Salty has the bat, but not the fielding. I think the Sox are serious about winning a championship next year so I pray that they go hard after Martin and if they fail make a push for Montero, guys who are both capable of being behind the plate every day. What we need is stability in the future not the discomfort and uncertainty that a combination of backups would bring.

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#10

Posted by Bob, October 26, 2008 2:21 PM

Will Ohman wouldn't be a bad pick-up to replace Lopez as the token lefty

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#11

Posted by SamR, October 26, 2008 6:41 PM

With Lowell already signed and pretty locked in at 3rd (for better or worse depending on your opinions) I don't see Texiera being a possibility. I mean, yeah it would be nice but let's be realistic. It's highly unlikely. Those positions are just too locked in right now. I just hope Lars can turn into a younger, cheaper Tex and send Lowell packing in a year or two.

As for CC. Again I really do not think he is going to be worth the money. He has never shown the ability to preform in the postseason, a must have in Boston, and he has been worked extremely hard throughout his career. He is going to get paid an insane amount of money. That's not in question. The question is, will he be worth it? I don't think it's a smart move. Some risks just aren't worth the potential reward.

The only deal I have heard that would really be worth throwing alot of chips into is Russell Martin. And while yes it's very unlikely, it's certainly worth pursuing. There is almost no question about the quality of player we would be getting in return and we would have no conflicts in fitting him in on our roster. I understand the price would be insanely steep but I still think it's a much better option than CC or Teix. Just my opinions though.

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#12

Posted by Gerry, October 26, 2008 9:57 PM

To answer the original question, R. Martin is the one player who will make a difference in 2009, and beyond. I agree with Bob that a Buchholz, Crisp, prospects trade would bring us talent on a par with young Fisk and Tek.

I don't agree re: Clay's high side, or Salty's projection as a catcher. Buchholz projections as a #1 -2 still apply. He was brought up early, he shined, and then the Sox messed with his mechanics, ruining 2008, but not Clay. His coaches are getting him back into his groove, and when he returns in 2009, he will be fierce. Like Jon Lester and Matt Garza, the rumors of his decline are premature. He should be a great one.

If we can't get Martin, we will be fortunate to keep Buchholz and get Salty; and hopefully keep Tek as player-coach to mentor young catchers and pitchers (including Martin, who still has much to learn.)

An idea: Give Kotsay a 3/16 type contract to be that supersub for 1b/OF. He is not a kid, his knees could use the rest, his talents are real. This would eliminate the need for an OF sub, especially with Pawtucket so close, allowing a 3rd catcher. Tek could mentor not only Martin or Salty, but rotate Kottaras, Brown and eventually Wagner between Fenway and Pawtucket. There are plenty of innings where they could be used, giving Tito, Farrell, Tek and the pitchers a good look at them, developing them as a future backup or, with a shortage of catchers, as enhanced trade chips. Tek can do that.

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#13

Posted by Bob, October 26, 2008 11:11 PM

I'm not debating that Buchholz has huge upside, I'm simply stating that simple probability is against him reaching it. As for Salty, I got to see him up close a year ago when he was still here with the Braves, he's not very good behind the plate and has a terrible arm. In the year since he's been in Texas he's made little progress, it's time to start wondering if he ever will. The Red Sox need a catcher not a 1st baseman. Also, given the fact that Tek got all pouty when Tito pinch hit for him, I wonder if he would be willing to take a back seat while his replacement is groomed. I know he's known as a selfless player, but he just went through a divorce (lost half his money) and seems a little less than eager to back someone else up. I think that rather than wager the future on something unsure like a Tek/Salty combo the Sox are better off targeting someone who they know can be a productive, full-time catcher for certain (Martin, Montero, Teagarden, Shoppach)

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#14

Posted by M.A.G, October 26, 2008 11:31 PM

I am more than ready to pay the steep price for Martin, because the guy worth it. As simple as that. He is arguably the best catcher in baseball, and he hasnt even reached his prime years yet.

In any case, we are going to need to give (at least) one of our top pitching prospects for our next catcher. And that's why I support the idea of signing a starting pitcher. Pitching depth is certainly a nice thing to have.

And CC is my personal favorite of all the pack of free agents. He is simply the best pitcher available. I know he is going to cost a lot, but the same goes for every other starting pitcher. We know the markett, so I preffer to throw a couple more millions for getting the extra quality. On the other hand, I have more concerns about the health of Burnett and Sheets, than Sabathia's. He has been a horse, and if we stop overusing it he should be fine. With him, our rotation looks invincible to me.

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#15

Posted by Evan, October 26, 2008 11:44 PM

Nick Cafardo weighed in today on the Boston Globe:

The consensus among scouts who have watched Red Sox prospect Mark Wagner in the Arizona Fall League is that his catching is much improved and he has a good idea of how to call a game. That seemed to be a negative on Wagner this season in Portland. The Sox are about to tread through very precarious waters with Jason Varitek, who they hope will be reasonable in his demands given his poor offensive season. The Sox expect to be aggressive in exploring trade/free agent options - Ramon Hernandez, Bengie Molina, Gregg Zaun, Pudge Rodriguez - but if Varitek feels that wearing the "C" is important to him and acknowledges that his value has diminished with age, the Sox would take him back. "I can't imagine there would be a big market for him," said a National League GM. "It would have to be a team that had a young pitching staff, a strong hitting lineup that could use him the same way the Red Sox did. Otherwise, I just don't see a lot of teams trying to sign him for big money or more than a couple of years." (link

My take: We all keep talking about how we need to acquire a young catcher. What if Theo opts not to? We resign Varitek for two/three years and hope Mark Wagner and Luis Exposito continue to develop.

If Varitek leaves, why can't we get by the next two years with someone like Gregg Zaun?

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#16

Posted by SamR, October 27, 2008 12:50 AM

It's not that we can't "get by". It's that we can do better. Let's put it this way. I will not be furious with Tek (or even someone like Zaun) as the full time catcher next year if Theo really thinks we can get someone from our own farm in a season or two. But I would certainly rather have someone who is a proven star if it is at all possible.

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#17

Posted by Sam K, October 27, 2008 8:57 AM

No on Tex, period. The guy is a good hitter, not a great one, but he's going to command top-dollar as the premier FA hitter on the market. Meanwhile, he blocks our best prospect and forces Mike Lowell to become an extremely expensive backup (or an expensive trading chip with reduced value, as teams will try to take advantage of our eagerness to deal him).

I'm so-so on CC. On the one hand, we seem to have lots of starting pitching depth, so why go taking on unnecessary risks? On the other hand, I fully expect Matsuzaka to regress, and who really knows with Wakefield anymore? Who really knows what to expect from Bucholz and Bowden?

Lester is our ace. A 2-3 combo of Beckett and Sabathia could secure our ticket to the postseason every single year for a long time to come. I go back and forth about this. We're taking a gamble either way. Do we gamble on Bucholz and Bowden, or do we gamble with Sabathia?

But seeing as how Martin could probably be had for a package starting with either Bucholz or Bowden, perhaps it's not a bad idea to consider signing Sabathia.

Masterson to stay in the pen. Please and thanks.

I do think we need to improve next year, though. No question about it, the AL East was the toughest division in baseball in 2008, and it's going to be B-R-U-T-A-L day in and night out in 2009, with this year's AL Champ Rays only improving with the addition of David Price, the Yankees scouring the FA market (with bulging pockets) for any help they can find, and Toronto and Baltimore still very respectable teams. Status quo won't be good enough.

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#18

Posted by Gerry, October 27, 2008 9:29 PM

This will be up to Boras, but IF Tek agrees to stay or go he changes the equation. Our 3 options are
: keep Tek and Cash/Ross as is, and hope their offense improves, which is possible.
2. sign the Captain as the mentor-player-coach to train up young catchers and pitchers, in which case he starts only 60+ games, and is on the road to coaching and managing in 2-3 years in Sox uniform. This would allow us to get his successors now.
3. let Tek walk = two more choices:
a. get a good defensive rental with .250/20HR potential (Ross is a good choice, Molina, ?) while prospects develop.
b. go after Martin now all out.

Once again, our pitching is deep but not that deep. If we have to trade Buchholz or Bowden for, say, Martin (no on Holliday), then we Must sign one of the 3 dominant pitchers, and CC is the most dominant, the healthiest, the youngest, and we keep our prospects. CC + Martin = WS?

Any of these choices are good ones.

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