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We sure woke up yesterday to some staggering news, didn’t we?
I don’t know about you, but I didn’t expect to hear that Coco Crisp had been traded to the Kansas City Royals for a reliever. The expectation was that Crisp would be packaged somewhere along with a young pitcher for a catcher. But no, a one-on-one trade was in Crisp’s future and in the newest Boston Red Sox, Ramon Ramirez.
WHO IS RAMON RAMIREZ?
This trade is excellent from the Red Sox’s perspective. The Sox had a very solid bullpen last year but now add Ramirez to their corps of young, cost-controllable arms that are capable of setting up and/or closing.
He has a mid-90s fastball with late life, a slider, and a changeup that acts as a splitter. He posted a dominating season last year, holding right-handed batters to a .159 average, good for third among all relievers (Carlos Marmol, Brad Lidge).
He finished the year with a 2.64 ERA, although his second-half ERA was 4.11. You can chalk that up to two major reasons (assuming injury was not one of them): the league learning about Ramirez and tiring down the stretch, although he was unstoppable in September with a 0.93 ERA.
There’s no question Ramirez is a quality reliever, and whether or not he steps up to assume setup duties is irrelevant. Even if he’s relegated to 6/7th inning roles, he will be effective in those roles and make our pitching corps that much better.
The Sox control Ramirez for four years and save roughly $5 million in the deal, which is significant money (for anyone but the Yankees). It can be reinvested, or in this economy, saved to help offset the Sox not raising ticket prices to combat the Yankees and inflation.
This trade is the first of many dominoes that will start to fall for the Red Sox. The question is, where will these dominoes fall?
What does this mean for Justin Masterson? What does it mean for the fourth outfielder role? Let’s tackle these questions.
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DOES THIS MAKE MASTERSON A STARTER?
Acquiring Ramirez gives the Sox a powerful bullpen and deepens it, allowing the Sox the flexibility to utilize Masterson as a starter should they choose so. It doesn’t, however preclude the Sox from keeping Masterson in the bullpen.
Assuming the Sox go with 12 pitchers and retain Masterson in his setup role, the bullpen would be comprised of: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Masterson, Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez and a bevy of candidates for the final spot (David Aardsma, Dewon Day, Virgil Vazquez, Devern Hansack, David Pauley, Hunter Jones, et al.).
Removing Masterson from the bullpen would represent a clear need to bring in another reliever, as the list for the final spot should be just that — the final spot. Two out of that list would weaken the Sox in the bullpen, and combined with Masterson’s platoon split (he is prone to left-handers due to his sidearm motion and sinker) the Sox are better off leaving him in the bullpen.
However, flexibility is king. The Sox now have that flexibility and should other offseason moves not go as planned, Masterson could enter the rotation with the Sox signing a veteran arm to take his place in the bullpen.
The Sox could also end up being more comfortable in shipping Masterson out, presumably to Texas. The Rangers reportedly offered Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox for either Clay Buchholz or two of Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and Nick Hagadone.
With Ramirez in the fold, the Sox may elect to reignite talks with Texas and be more amenable to losing some of their young pitching. This deal may have been the precursor to a deal with Texas.
With the Sox’s relatively strong starting pitching depth at the moment plus their interest in signing another starter, (they have been linked to Derek Lowe, which I campaigned against, and A.J. Burnett) to me it is clear that they view Masterson as a valued bullpen piece, and the acquisition of Ramirez should do nothing but allow them a little more peace of mind in backup options.
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WHO’S OUR FOURTH OUTFIELDER?
Would you believe that the answer could very well be Jacoby Ellsbury?
Right now, based on the chatter surrounding the Sox this offseason, there are three directions the Sox could go with regards to the outfield:
One direction would be to maintain the status quo in the infield and outfield and move forward, signing a free agent to back up the outfield. Rocco Baldelli has been a targeted name due to his local ties and his pure talent.
Rocco’s mitochondrial abnormalities would seem to prevent him from assuming a full-time gig as a starter, at least in the short term. There’s no question that this guy could still make a few All-Star games, but at this juncture in time, he needs to prove he is healthy and can handle the workload.
If not Baldelli, the Sox have other options in free agency and internally to fill the role.
Another direction the Red Sox could go in deals with signing Mark Teixeira, trading Mike Lowell (presumably for a fourth outfielder?) and repeating the scenario above on needing a fourth outfielder.
Lastly, and admittedly the most unlikely option, is signing Teixeira and retaining Mike Lowell. J.D. Drew would shift to center, Jason Bay to right and Kevin Youkilis would move to left-field.
I’ve heard this scenario bandied about in the past, and it could happen. The Sox would be sacrificing defense in left-field, but that’s what we did for the past eight years. Jacoby would get another season of at-bats to continue his ascent as the long-term centerfielder of the Sox. As we all noticed this past year, there were plenty of at-bats to go around for Coco, so Jacoby wouldn’t suffer too much.
Don’t count this scenario out. As interested in Teixeira as the Sox are and as adamant as Tony Massarotti is about the Sox signing Tex, the Sox may have their hand forced in this scenario if they can’t move Lowell. They’d have to move Youkilis or Bay instead, perhaps even J.D. Drew, and that may be a move Theo is unwilling to make. He may be comfortable waiting a year for Lowell’s value to rebound.
WHERE DO THE SOX GO FROM HERE?
Theo can go in a lot of different directions now that he’s got a reliever under his belt. He can afford to be more cautious when negotiating with starters (Lowe, Burnett, etc.). He can turn his attention to solving the catcher dilemma first, rather than finding a starter. He can chase Mark Teixeira and try to move Lowell for a starting pitcher, reliever or backup outfielder.
He could also elect to make zero other moves this off-season.
Wherever the Sox go from here, the opening salvo of the Sox’s offseason was the Crisp/Ramirez trade, and it’s going to impact the rest of the offseason fundamentally.
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Then what with Lars Anderson and David Ortiz? What if Ortiz bounces back to his previous levels and Lars explodes?
We can’t trade Tex unless the Sox waive the no-trade stipulation they have, Papi can’t be traded without his consent and shouldn’t be, and Lars is the future.
We could always trade Tex I suppose, but I believe Boras will look for a NTC.
Evan,
Good problems to have. Ortiz, I believe, reached 10+5 rights after last season. No trade without consent. Expect some form of ntc for Tex to be asked for by Boras and oppossed by Theo. Who knows what will end up on paper?
Again though, Anderson is a PROSPECT. He shows great PROMISE. But you CANNOT build your mlb roster for ‘09 on what a AA prospect MIGHT BE.
See for example: Dernell Stenson, Len Bias, Reggie Lewis
P.S. to everyone.
JD Drew at five yrs @14m/per
Dice K at six yrs @11m/per + $51m just to chat
For players they want Theo HAS and WILL extended contract length and $ value. Don’t think there is some set in stone organizational philosophy that says no terms over 5 years for anyone period.
Some of you guys are all against signing Teixeira to a big deal but what you don’t realize is that an opportunity like this only comes up once in a while. Look at the last time a free agent of his caliber was on the market, Manny Ramirez in 2000 and look how that turned out for the sox, they rode his bat to 2 world series’, and Tex isn’t the type of selfish, self-absorbed person who will quit on his teammates and his fans because he felt like the organization was mistreating him, making him work hard and play every day. What I’m saying is that no matter what kind of prospects you have that you think are going to turn out as stars in the majors you have the opportunity to get a premier player in his prime, an opportunity for a franchise changing player on a franchise where you already have playoff capabilities. You sign Teixeira, you have FOUR guys with realistic 30 HR/YR capabilities in Ortiz, Youkilis, Bay, and Teixeira. Add on the fact that J.D. Drew has a very outside shot of still becoming a force in that lineup and Pedroia, who hit 20 last year between the regular and postseasons combined, PLUS, none of those guys are Adam Dunn types who hit 40 HR’s/YR but hits in the low .200’s in average, they all hit for power AND a pretty good average. Teixeira is the only player in this free agent class worth whatever money he and his dirtbag agent Scott Boras ask for. Also, on the fourth outfielder situation, Milton Bradley is a free agent and there’s probably a very outside chance he’ll sign with us a a fourth guy but in my mind he would be the ideal man for the job. He has power from both sides of the plate, all he needs is a Bill Belichick attitude adjustment and we would be golden.
Amazing comments. This has been enjoyable and informative. I think, after such a quiet 2007 post-season, and so much quiet this time around in the face of so much potential, everyone has been waiting anxiously for Theo to do something. When he finally did with Coco-Rram, everyone seems excited by what is possible.
I think we all like this team back and, like Theo, are merely looking for the best ways to add a little (or a lot) here and there. Choices remain a FA pitcher, or not; which catcher and for what or whom; Rocco? and to Teix or not. Sounds to me like we are getting ready for another WS run.
And I know Theo will think of a way to bring in a top catcher without giving up the kids.
Since freaking when is Mark Teixeira anywhere near being a player of Manny Ramirez’s caliber?
And that’s what you guys — those of you who are calling for us to sign Tex — fail to understand. Can you really say that you’ve taken the time to examine Teixeira’s numbers? I think not, because if you had, no way would you be willing to Boras-Monster prices for the guy.
Tex is overrated. Good bat, good glove, switch-hitter, but not so good that he’s worth nixing all of our carefully-laid pieces. We have Lowell, Youk, Papi, and Lars in place. We don’t need Teixeira, period.
Don’t waste your time, Evan.
You are absolutely right, Sam K.
Ok, Am I the only person that even remembers Orlando Cabrera? I think Lowrie is great and plays well enough to start, but OC is available, and we won’t have to trade anyone (Hardy) or pay big money (Furcal). Probably could get him for 1-2 years until Lowrie matures. Not saying that we should drop everything and go get him, but he would be a better option in my mind then previously mentioned candidates. And about Teixeira, I think we oughta go ahead and get him, he is proven vs. Lars Anderson is a prospect and only that for now. Yes he will be big money and yes some things will get moved around, but it will be well worth it. And I’m not saying get Teixeira to replace Ortiz, get him to replace what Manny was. And about Anderson, I don’t agree he’ll be ready by the end of next year, I could be wrong, but I don’t. At the end of two years, potentially Ortiz could be out the door, leaving the DH spot wide open. Possibly put Anderson at DH in 2 years? Still would have Teixeira and still use Anderson. And last thing, definitely trade Lugo for Willis given the chance, I don’t care if we have to pay his salary. Farrell is a great coach, esp. with young guys, and I think he’d have a good shot at turning D-Train back into the pitcher he was when he won 20 games.
Sam K,
What carefully laid piece is Lowell? He was originally a throw-in salary dump requirement in the Beckett deal from Florida. He was resigned because he was the best available option, unless you thought the Sox should’ve outbid NY for A-Rod.
He is a better “player” than Manny “now”. Not a better “hitter”, a better “player”.
In FIRST six years he averaged over 30hrs/100rbi/nearly .300 avg.
He is about to enter his prime years. And he DOES NOT affect Youkilis, Ortiz, or that AA PROSPECT so many people keep mentioning.
Ben, Lowrie is ready to play now and put up a higher ops then Cabrera in his first mlb exposure playing through an injury. Also Lowrie will be 25 at the start of next season so on top of being ready to contribute his time is now versus a 34 y/o Cabrera. Lowrie posted a higher ops despite only hitting .258 and he is a good bet to be a .280+ hitter given a full season. Also Lowrie made zero errors at ss in 49 games compared to 16 in 161 for Cabrera. Lowrie had a higher zone rating at shortstop and was ranked higher by the fielding bible defensively at short then Cabrera as well.
Wow. A lot of comments since last time I checked. A lot of pretty insane ones too. No offense intended. But I would like to calm everyone a bit. Alot of new people commenting so. Just chill a bit. Stop and think. We have to be careful about what we do here. Nothing is simple in the Hot Stove. We can’t just do whatever we want. We have to go at it rationally and with a plan.
Tex over the next 8 years would not be what Manny was for us over the last 8. He’s not that good. Plain and simple. That doesn’t mean we shouldnt think about signing him. It does however mean would should not go crazy and sign him for whatever he wants because we think we HAVE to have him. We don’t. That’s the beauty of our position. I think we are set up pretty well (not perfectly, but well enough and cheaply enough) and we can afford to stop and think about where we wanna go from here. Rather than going all Steinbrenner and just buying everybody we can get our hands on.
Stop and think. Have a plan. And be careful. That’s all I ask of Theo.
Is Mark Teixeira a “Manny-like” hitter?? Hell no! Is anyone?? Probably not. Does signing Mark Teixeira solidify the middle of the Sox lineup for the next 8 years? You bet your sweet A** he does. Injuries or not, the Sox simply cannot pass up the opportunity to sign a player the caliber of Mark Teixeira! It’s as if all of you “above average” FANS (and I emphasize FANS!) have not been watching baseball outside of Fenway the past few years. You all love Theo, but you don’t trust his judgment to pursue a player like this? Come on! As for the numbers?? Not Manny Ramirez numbers (who is?), but great numbers by age 28 nonetheless!
Manny-Tex numbers at age 28
Games: 967-904
At-Bats: 3470-3414
Runs: 665-566
Hits: 1086-989
2Bs: 237-223
HRs: 236-203
RBIs: 804-676
BBs: 541-442
Ks: 780-694
Avg: .313-.290
OBP: .407-.378
SLG: .592-.541
Not Manny numbers, but great numbers for Tex after 6 seasons!! Stick him in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for the next 8 years, watch Theo consistently surround him with talent, and expect his numbers to earn the contract Theo’s about to offer him!
One last thing….
This looks like the same string of responses I read back in 2000 when the Red Sox were pursuing Manny. “Don’t do it!”, “We shouldn’t resort to being like the Yankees!”, “We’re lovable losers!”.
Not anymore!
Theo’s building champions!!
From the inside first….
and from the outside if the player warrants it.
Definitely go after Teixeira……fits the Sox style of patient hitters…..major upgrade to the lineup…..in a unpopular suggestion, look to see what the market is for trading Papi…..then have a rotation of everyday players at DH,like Lowell,Drew,Ellsbury,etc…..Lars is a couple of years away…..even at that time, he will be worked into the lineup gradually…..Sox are also high on Taylor Teagarden of Texas….maybe not cost as much as Salty…..Tek will come back……no one else is going to blow him away with a deal and the Sox will sign him for two plus option…..leave Masterson in the pen and go after a guy like Penny loaded with incentives….even with only 15-20 starts because of injuries, the Sox will have the young stud arms waiting…..
Apparently many people here don’t understand (or, more precisely, don’t want to understand) the simple concept of player value. Nobody here said Teixeira is a bad player. In fact, Ryan Howard is a pretty good player too, but he is not very valuable for a team like the Cardinals, for example. They have a nice player called Albert Pujols, so breaking the bank for Howard has no sense for them. First base is a position of strenght for the Sox, and a position we got more than secured for very long time thanks to the fact our best prospect is a first baseman.
So, the bottom line is Teixeira is not a really a valuable player for us. He is certainly much more valuable for the Angels and for the Yankees, and that’s why we can count of them making a big move. He makes sense for the Nationals too, because they need a big name to build a fan base. But, for the Red Sox, he is nothing but an inmense waste of money. Money we should use to improve upgrade the team in a significant way, and not in a marginal way.
The lust for Teixeira is nothing more than a media induced obsesion. Big names makes big news. And I think the Sox are showing interest in Teixeira only because they want to raise his paycheck in case he ends with the Yanks. But entering in a bidding war with NY and LA to get him, would be an extremelly dumb move.
Tex has a better bat than Youk. He’s an upgrade at 1b.
Youk is better than Lowell at this point. He’s an upgrade at 3b.
A full season of Lowrie is an upgrade over last year.
Pedrioa is a GG MVP. There is no upgrade.
By signing 1 guy you upgrade 3 positions but you say he wouldn’t have value to us.
For everyone opposed to Tex based on the lofty expectations of Lars Anderson, please answer this question:
If we keep Youk at 1b and Lowell at 3b and both are signed through the next 2yrs, then which one of those two are you going to cut the break lines on to get rid of?
My point being that even the Sox don’t sign Tex, you should already consider Lars as blocked.
Say the Sox stay status quo on the infield, the Sox spend 2yrs getting older and less productive because they’re waiting for a hole to open for Lars to make things cheaper and better. Two years pass and Lowell’s contract is up so you move Youk to third. Lars slides into 1b and you all yell halleliuah!! But then you realize Ortiz’s contract just ran out and you need a new dh. Oops
To clarify my position on actually signing Tex:
I don’t believe he’s an absolute must have. The Sox will still have a good team if they return last years players. I can see them improving simply by adding a better bat behind the plate.
I can’t however understand how anyone can possibly not see how adding Tex and subtracting an aging Lowell doesn’t make them even better, younger, more productive and stable for the next 5yrs. There is no reason not to like Tex. Unless the bidding gets to A-Rod $$ I say sign him. If you extend what was Manny’s contract to Tex it actually has less real value than Manny’s because of inflation. Those who are crying he’s not as good as Manny can take heart in that fact.
On the cry to upgrade SS,
Give Lowrie a shot. He’s done nothing not to deserve a chance. You could alway look for a trade before July deadline. JJ Hardy may still be available for all of the JJ Hardy lovers.
On trading Lowell
Be creative. Find a trade partner. Structure a deal favorable to both sides. Have either a group of players available from, and/or monetary compenstation to, the team aquiring Lowell. If he plays to certain perfomance levels we get a better player and pay less of his salary. If he comes back and isn’t as effective for his new team after surgery, we get a lesser player and pay more of his salary. We don’t need anyone in return right now, so he could have most of next season to prove his value.
One last post
If the Sox sign Tex.
And Ortiz starts hitting the cover off the ball.
And Lars is ready before Papi’s contract is up.
Ortiz can approve a trade to a team he likes. And if Papi is being Papi what team wouldn’t want him at 12.5m/yr on a short contract.
This worst case scenario for the “Lars is blocked group”, is actually the best case scenario for the team. They wouldn’t have to eat any of Papi’s salary, save 12.5m toward Tex’s salary, and get a decent player or prospects back in trade. They would also be younger, under team control, and well within budget for the next 4-5 yrs. That would allow the organization to seriously focus on the farm assuring a constant stream of quality players starting to mature when this group ages and reaches free agency.
EVAN – thanks for the article and the forum. I like what your doing here and wish you continued success. I hope you continue to attract posters who are as knowledgeable and polite as the ones I’ve found in this discussion.
Peace out.
Mike Lowell, on a bad day, is better with bat, glove and grit than most of the league’s 3rd basemen. He beat cancer, and will beat this rather routine surgery, and come back in great shape . . . meaning he will be having mostly good days. He he will hit at least to Bill James’ predictions, which are very good. My bet is he will, literally, will himself back to that next level, as he has much to prove, and will be in fantastic shape from the rehab. Mike may be one of the mentally toughest guys on the Sox.
My point is, if we don’t get Teix, we will still have a Gold Glove infield with OBP & power. If we get Teix, any team that gets Mike will greatly improve their infield. Texas and Cleveland BOTH need an upgrade at 3b.
And thank you, Jared, for comparing Orlando to Jed. We tend to forget how awestruck we were with Lowrie’s clutch hitting before his fractured and sprained wrist shut him down. Remember all those zingers off the wall and all those RBI’s??? He was a high BA, OPS in MiLB and was the same when he took over from Julio. His final BA does not reflect either his high side nor his contributions. With his wrist healed he will not regress. Zero errors. Good range and growinig. Soft hands. Heads up ballplayer. Versatile. Good team mate. Age 24. Farm raised. Still a rookie. We finally have our SS. Let’s leave him alone for awhile, shall we?
Lars can be the guy to step in for Ortiz when that day comes and I’d rather keep Lowell as a utility infielder if trade value is not high but this hinges on moving Lugo without having to swallow all that cash meaning trading for a bad contract pitcher ala those mentioned with Detroit.
youk playing in left fied with tex on first and lowell on third ain’t bad thinking. that’s alot of offense baby
Yes, carefully-laid pieces. Youks, Papi, and Lowell are all under our control, and Lars will be ready at exactly the time we have a hole at the corner infield and need to be rid of Lowell. That looks suspiciously like Theo’s ENGINEERING, as far as I’m concerned.
We don’t need Tex. We don’t need an upgrade at our strongest positions.
I reiterate: if we sign a FA, it needs to be a starting pitcher. And we need a catcher, by any means possible.
I completely agree with Sam K.
If we sign a FA, it needs to be a starting pitcher. And not only because we have a hole in that position, but because it gives us more flexibility to trade for the players we really need. A high quality catcher is something we can only obtain through trade. And a catcher is the absolute first priority right now.
And, if we want to improve even further, that same flexibility can allow us to trade for another truly valuable piece like J.J. Hardy. The Brewers are gonna lose Sabathia and Sheets, so, they need pitching right now. If we offer them a Buchholz-package, they will listen.
So, signing pitching gives us the option to further upgrade our weakest positions in the lineup. And that makes much more sense than upgrade our positions of strenght.
Aquiring a guy like Saltalamcchia or Shoppach, is much more valuable to us than Teixeira. And a posible combination of Salty/Shoppach plus JJ Hardy, makes our lineup TEN times better than the signing of Teixeira.
MAGS, that’s the only reasonable way to look at it.
The rags will get themselves in a tizzy over a guy like Teixeira, but Tex isn’t the cure for what ails the Sox. You don’t take Pepto for a headache, and you don’t pay $25m a year to sign a great first baseman when you already have a great first baseman.
You both make great sense, and I still can’t believe the Angels and Dodgers will let their prizes leave L.A.
The Sox will be a powerhouse in 2009 even without Teix, because of increased production from healed Papi, Lowell, JD, Jed; from continued growth by Pedroia, Youk, Ells, Bay; from a bench built around power and OBP with maybe Rocco, Bailey and others, AND good hitting from the catcher’s position. A lineup with no weaknesses. You are right about the good hitting catcher, and a half dozen young talents are available. Theo must sign one of them. Would it matter much which one?
IMO, the Pen is now rock solid. RRam and Masterson fully replace the Gagne-we-never-had; and the Pen is also much deeper than last year, with a healthy Gronk and Hansack, plus Jones, Bard, maybe Smith, Pauley or Zinc, or even Bowden.
Starting Rotation remains the issue. But who do we get? What if Wake really retires due to his shoulder? Awful news. Could Kawamaki adequately fill his role? Will CC stay with the Brewers or home in Cali? (I think the Yankees would have to increase their offer by 30% to make it financially worthwhile, so Boston is out of that fight). Would we pay AJ a ransom for 5 years, despite serious risk of breakdown; or Lowe a ransom for 4 years, to age 40. Would Sheets or Penny go for one year, with options? I am fine with that as if they are injured, we have Buchholz and Bowden to step in, probably without much of a loss. Please, no to Paul Byrd or any other decent innings eater. We need an Ace, maybe two . . . who would you pick to make the team complete?