November 20, 2008 at 9:00 AM
Analyzing the Coco Crisp/Ramon Ramirez trade
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I don't know about you, but I didn't expect to hear that Coco Crisp had been traded to the Kansas City Royals for a reliever. The expectation was that Crisp would be packaged somewhere along with a young pitcher for a catcher. But no, a one-on-one trade was in Crisp's future and in the newest Boston Red Sox, Ramon Ramirez.
WHO IS RAMON RAMIREZ?
This trade is excellent from the Red Sox's perspective. The Sox had a very solid bullpen last year but now add Ramirez to their corps of young, cost-controllable arms that are capable of setting up and/or closing.
He has a mid-90s fastball with late life, a slider, and a changeup that acts as a splitter. He posted a dominating season last year, holding right-handed batters to a .159 average, good for third among all relievers (Carlos Marmol, Brad Lidge).
He finished the year with a 2.64 ERA, although his second-half ERA was 4.11. You can chalk that up to two major reasons (assuming injury was not one of them): the league learning about Ramirez and tiring down the stretch, although he was unstoppable in September with a 0.93 ERA.
There's no question Ramirez is a quality reliever, and whether or not he steps up to assume setup duties is irrelevant. Even if he's relegated to 6/7th inning roles, he will be effective in those roles and make our pitching corps that much better.
The Sox control Ramirez for four years and save roughly $5 million in the deal, which is significant money (for anyone but the Yankees). It can be reinvested, or in this economy, saved to help offset the Sox not raising ticket prices to combat the Yankees and inflation.
This trade is the first of many dominoes that will start to fall for the Red Sox. The question is, where will these dominoes fall?
What does this mean for Justin Masterson? What does it mean for the fourth outfielder role? Let's tackle these questions.
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Acquiring Ramirez gives the Sox a powerful bullpen and deepens it, allowing the Sox the flexibility to utilize Masterson as a starter should they choose so. It doesn't, however preclude the Sox from keeping Masterson in the bullpen.
Assuming the Sox go with 12 pitchers and retain Masterson in his setup role, the bullpen would be comprised of: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Masterson, Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez and a bevy of candidates for the final spot (David Aardsma, Dewon Day, Virgil Vazquez, Devern Hansack, David Pauley, Hunter Jones, et al.).
Removing Masterson from the bullpen would represent a clear need to bring in another reliever, as the list for the final spot should be just that -- the final spot. Two out of that list would weaken the Sox in the bullpen, and combined with Masterson's platoon split (he is prone to left-handers due to his sidearm motion and sinker) the Sox are better off leaving him in the bullpen.
However, flexibility is king. The Sox now have that flexibility and should other offseason moves not go as planned, Masterson could enter the rotation with the Sox signing a veteran arm to take his place in the bullpen.
The Sox could also end up being more comfortable in shipping Masterson out, presumably to Texas. The Rangers reportedly offered Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox for either Clay Buchholz or two of Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and Nick Hagadone.
With Ramirez in the fold, the Sox may elect to reignite talks with Texas and be more amenable to losing some of their young pitching. This deal may have been the precursor to a deal with Texas.
With the Sox's relatively strong starting pitching depth at the moment plus their interest in signing another starter, (they have been linked to Derek Lowe, which I campaigned against, and A.J. Burnett) to me it is clear that they view Masterson as a valued bullpen piece, and the acquisition of Ramirez should do nothing but allow them a little more peace of mind in backup options.
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Would you believe that the answer could very well be Jacoby Ellsbury?
Right now, based on the chatter surrounding the Sox this offseason, there are three directions the Sox could go with regards to the outfield:
One direction would be to maintain the status quo in the infield and outfield and move forward, signing a free agent to back up the outfield. Rocco Baldelli has been a targeted name due to his local ties and his pure talent.
Rocco's mitochondrial abnormalities would seem to prevent him from assuming a full-time gig as a starter, at least in the short term. There's no question that this guy could still make a few All-Star games, but at this juncture in time, he needs to prove he is healthy and can handle the workload.
If not Baldelli, the Sox have other options in free agency and internally to fill the role.
Another direction the Red Sox could go in deals with signing Mark Teixeira, trading Mike Lowell (presumably for a fourth outfielder?) and repeating the scenario above on needing a fourth outfielder.
Lastly, and admittedly the most unlikely option, is signing Teixeira and retaining Mike Lowell. J.D. Drew would shift to center, Jason Bay to right and Kevin Youkilis would move to left-field.
I've heard this scenario bandied about in the past, and it could happen. The Sox would be sacrificing defense in left-field, but that's what we did for the past eight years. Jacoby would get another season of at-bats to continue his ascent as the long-term centerfielder of the Sox. As we all noticed this past year, there were plenty of at-bats to go around for Coco, so Jacoby wouldn't suffer too much.
Don't count this scenario out. As interested in Teixeira as the Sox are and as adamant as Tony Massarotti is about the Sox signing Tex, the Sox may have their hand forced in this scenario if they can't move Lowell. They'd have to move Youkilis or Bay instead, perhaps even J.D. Drew, and that may be a move Theo is unwilling to make. He may be comfortable waiting a year for Lowell's value to rebound.
WHERE DO THE SOX GO FROM HERE?
Theo can go in a lot of different directions now that he's got a reliever under his belt. He can afford to be more cautious when negotiating with starters (Lowe, Burnett, etc.). He can turn his attention to solving the catcher dilemma first, rather than finding a starter. He can chase Mark Teixeira and try to move Lowell for a starting pitcher, reliever or backup outfielder.
He could also elect to make zero other moves this off-season.
Wherever the Sox go from here, the opening salvo of the Sox's offseason was the Crisp/Ramirez trade, and it's going to impact the rest of the offseason fundamentally.
Discussion
78 Comments on "Analyzing the Coco Crisp/Ramon Ramirez trade"
#2
Posted by bob, November 20, 2008 1:13 PM
just had an interesting thought about another young catcher the Red Sox could target. Tyler Flowers of the Braves is a solid prospect with the bat who needs a little bit of work on his defense. Like Salty, the Bravos don't really have a spot for him since Brian McCann is one of the top 5 catchers in the game. He's a little bit farther away, but in a year he could be every bit as good as Salty or Teagarden and would probably cost less. It might be smart to swap a few prospects with Atlanta, get Flowers and then sign someone like Bengie Molina as a one to two year stopgap until he's ready.
#3
Posted by M.A.G, November 20, 2008 1:27 PM
If we sign Teixeira, moving Lowell will be the least of our worries. We are going to have to move LARS ANDERSON. Our best prospect. A guy who projects to be our own Justin Morneau.
That deal only makes sense if we want to sell Tex T-Shirts, not if we want to improve the team.
#4
Posted by M.A.G, November 20, 2008 1:35 PM
And Bob, about Tyler Flowers, I read he has a good bat, but I understand he has been playing first base. So, how good are his catching tools?
#5
Posted by bob, November 20, 2008 2:07 PM
he's been catching in the AFL as far as I knew and hit 12 homers in 71 at-bats. He's a big guy, but he moves ok. He'll probably never be a premium defensive player, but he will be a premium offensive catcher, and I wouldn't say he's really any worse than Salty. He could be an everyday player by 2010. They'll probably have to wait for him a little since his name will be in all the Peavy talks, but I think he can be a catcher, remember Varitek wasn't much of a defensive player when the Sox got him either.
#6
Posted by LorfTVP, November 20, 2008 3:09 PM
Ah, offseason speculation. If you're serious about using Jacoby as a fourth outfielder, what about signing another outfielder. Granted, the pickings are slim, but maybe something along the lines of Adam Dunn, who isn't a good fielder, but provides the pop that Ortiz wanted. He'd be a K machine but another productive 40 HR guy with a great OBP in the lineup. He wants to be on a competitive team as well. Granted, I don't know anything about what he's looking for this offseason in terms of length or money. Just hypothesizing.
#7
Posted by Bob, November 20, 2008 6:18 PM
Dunn would certainly provide a lot of pop and obp, but I don't know if he's a great fit. Getting him would require playing Drew in center which is risky considering his health history. One of the hallmarks of this team since 2004 has been an emphasis on defense, that's really why Dunn doesn't fit. An outfield from left to right of Dunn, Drew, and Bay would have a lot of pop, but would be brutal in the field.
#8
Posted by M.A.G, November 20, 2008 6:26 PM
I actually like Adam Dunn. At least he makes much more sense than Teixeira.
#10
Posted by Bob, November 20, 2008 6:56 PM
I like Dunn too, but he's a terrible fit. At least Texeira could slot in easily even if he does block Anderson.
#11
Posted by SamR, November 20, 2008 7:21 PM
Tex or Dunn would definently give our offense a boost. But I'd rather we didn't. It would kill our D and our payroll. Plus, I think that would go against everything Theo has been working towards since he got to Boston.
I look at it this way. We used to force opposing pitchers to fear about 3 out of 9 innings. Now those 3 innings were pretty damn terrifying with Manny and Papi in their primes. But now with Bay and Youk and a declining Papi it's just not that scary anymore. And we can't generate enough runs with the heart of our order to carry this team. So, rather than relying on 3 great innings every game, we now put our hope in 9 solid innings. Sure we don't strike the fear we once did. But now instead we never give the opponent an easy inning. Make sense?
That's what I think Theo is reaching for. And honestly, while I loved Papi/Manny at their peak, I think this could be our best realistic option. We have replaced the black hole that was Lugo with Jed, the classic Sox hitter. If we can do that with the catcher position (now that Tek is essentially gone) and if Ells can keep himself from being a black hole, then I think we will have gotten pretty close to accomplishing that goal.
That's just giving my opinion though. Theo is rather unpredictable so we will have to wait and see. Interesting stuff as always.
#12
Posted by Sam K, November 20, 2008 7:31 PM
FWIW, Tex is also a GG caliber defender. I still don't want him, but his defense has nothing to do with it.
#13
Posted by Evan, November 20, 2008 8:29 PM
Hey Bob, MAG, have you tried signing up for an account? If so, what's not working about it? Thanks!
I like Dunn too but I don't think he's a fit for the Sox. Do we really need to upgrade our starting lineup?
#14
Posted by SamR, November 20, 2008 9:53 PM
Oh I know Texiera is great at 1st, and Youk is probably better than Lowell at 3rd at this point in their careers. That argument was more against Dunn in LF. Texiera's D is fine. With him it's all about money. And Lars. And the fact it would really just go against the entire feeling I get from Theo and Co. Just my opinion though.
#15
Posted by gerry, November 20, 2008 10:14 PM
I agree completely. The Coco-Ram trade is transformational, as it impacts several areas at once: Pen, Rotation, OF, Payroll, FA considerations. Depending on the next domino, this trade could also be brilliant as, for all its paradigm changing, it happened under the radar.
Getting a strong 4th OF should be easy, and Rocco Baldelli, if available, is the easiest first choice for many reasons. Combined with Jeff Bailey, the OF and 1B is well covered, with little loss on defense, and a big boost on power vs. Coco, Casey, Kotsay. Additional depth? More big bats of VanEvery or Carter. Sturdy.
I wonder if signing Teix would be even more transformational? It would not only restore the feared, even if waning, heart of the order but, as SAMR said, keep the pressure on through 9 innings of power and speed. In terms of power, the fear of HR & OBP would begin at #2 with P.D., to Papi,, Teix, Youk, J.D., J.B., to C #7; for about 200HR. Few pitchers would be comfortable with that lineup.
Also, with Teix, Mike Lowell, who we everyone knows will play at or above his average for the next two years, can be traded (even eating some of his contract) for a top young catcher. In other words, signing Teix (replacing Manny's salary) would also bring us the catcher we need, paid for with the freed up portion of Mike's contract. Transformational.
Then, with Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden, Jones, Bard, et al. still around, we need not pursue a high $$ SP or RP pitcher, and will still be a far better and deeper pitching staff than 2008. If appropriate, sign a Kawakami or Penny at reasonable $$, come in well under the 2008 payroll, and enjoy the ride.
#16
Posted by Bob in reply to comment from Evan, November 20, 2008 10:16 PM
I haven't signed up for an account, but it's really just laziness on my part. I'll do it eventually (soon).
#17
Posted by SamR in reply to comment from gerry, November 20, 2008 10:43 PM
I don't think Lowell nets us a catching prospect anywhere close to the majors. The league would be outraged at a fleecing of that sort. Lowell is a gamble for us to keep. To take him on with his contract and injury risk for a young catcher. That's and even bigger risk for another team. Don't see it happening that way.
Again, Tex would be great. But he causes alot of other issues, starting with Lowell. It just doesn't fit when I look at it. Personally, I'd be really surprised if Texiera is wearing a Boston uni next year.
#18
Posted by M.A.G., November 20, 2008 10:43 PM
I said I like Dunn, but I dont really want to sign him. I agree he is not a good fit. I just said I would prefer him over Teixeira, because he should not be as expensive, and he is not going to block Lars. But he is not in my wish list by any means.
What I want, above all else, is upgrade the CATCHER position. That's the best way to upgrade the whole lineup. A high quality catcher is the first thing in my wish list. After that, I would like to sign one of the FA pitchers, and that's it. All is vanity after this.
#19
Posted by M.A.G., November 20, 2008 10:57 PM
By the way, I support Theo's managing philosophy 100%: Having at least average players in all positions, and then upgrade every position you can. And that's why I trust Teixeira will never be a Red Sox player. That's the kind of move I expect of the Yankees.
By the way, I read Boras is asking a contract of 8-10 years for Teixeira. That's the worst deal imaginable for the Sox.
#20
Posted by bottomlinesox, November 21, 2008 10:56 AM
Alot of great points here guys...
Here's my two cents: I recoginize that we don't NEED Teix right now... but I view this opportunity as a chance to sign the guy we'll build the lineup around for the next 5-8 years - ala Manny.
Despite all the injuries, the Sox were a top 5 offense in 2008, but it's follish to think that the aging and more often injured Lowell and Ortiz are going to continue to hit like they did in 2007.
Signing Teix is a move for the future, not just for 2009. I know he'll come at an insane price, but I think some of us could stand to rcognize that the Red Sox do not have to operate on a budget - Theo def. works like he's using Oakland's money, but he'll spend it when he has to (see Dice-K, Drew).
Bottom Line: I'm not sure what you do with Lowell, but I think they should and will sign Teixeira... unless someone can name a player that will be available in the next year or two to act as the heart of the line up - sorry M.A.G. - I like Lars, but I'm not sure I agree with the Morneau comparison.
#21
Posted by M.A.G, November 21, 2008 12:52 PM
Youk gives us 25 HR. Teixera can give us 30.
So, do you really think 5 HR worth 15-200 M? And even If you don't see Lars as high as Morneau, he will be a 25 HR player, easily. The upgrade is marginal at best, crippling our payroll in the process, and blocking our best prospect, a guy who has the potential of being even better, and who is gonna cost us nothing.
Now, if we really wanna go for a big upgrade in the lineup, we should go after J.J. Hardy. He is a young guy (younger than Teixeira) who can give us 20-25 HR from the SHORTSTOP position. He is a huge improvement over Lowrie, while Tex is only a minor improvement over Youk.
By the way, if we use Lowrie as a chip, we should be able to land a catcher like Shoppach (another 20-25 HR guy) or Snyder/Montero.
Our lineup plus Shoppach and JJ Hardy. That's a truly a HUGE upgrade for now and for the future.
#22
Posted by M.A.G, November 21, 2008 1:26 PM
And, If we are gonna use the decline of Papi as an excuse for going after Teixeira, then it has much more sense to simply sign Adam Dunn, and then trade Ortiz. Certainly Dunn is the perfect DH.
#23
Posted by Joe in reply to comment from M.A.G, November 21, 2008 2:52 PM
Wow. Really??? Dunn over Tex? Tex is exactly the type of player Epstein covets - high average, OBP, OPS, Gold glove, etc. Dunn should NEVER EVER wear a Sox uniform. Please.
#24
Posted by anon, November 21, 2008 3:13 PM
If Lowell is going to be moved for a fourth outfielder, it likely would have to be someone high-priced like Lowell. Gary Matthews Jr.?
#25
Posted by blaze, November 21, 2008 3:19 PM
Someone explain to me why we wouldn't want to sign a guy like Tex'.... In the event Lowell doesn't stay healthy, (or soemone else for that matter) our chances of going far into the playoffs will decrease drastically. We all saw what happened when Bay didn't have protection in the lineup against the Rays, as opposed to what he did do against the Angels. This trickle down affect is not something you want to look forward too, because it will happen. I'm unfamiliar of Lowell's or Youk's "range" so-to-speak, but could either one of those guys play Shortstop? Having Tex' and Lowell in our 09' lineup would bring us straight to the world series (health issues aside that is)...
#26
Posted by RedSoxFan, November 21, 2008 3:37 PM
WOW... OK! This is what i think should happen:
Theo has been looking at Tex for a long time. HE knows when he looks at players that they are goood. Look at Dice K for instance! They looked at him for something like 5 years before he came to the MLB. HES AWESOME. So they Red Sox do the fallowing... Trade Lugo to Tigers for Dontrelle and put him in AAA like they did with Bartolo Colon. Sign Tex to play at First, moving YOUK to play at 3rd...thats 3 gold glover quality players in the infeild (Pedroia).... THEN 1. I think we go after JJ Hardy. Trade Mike Lowell to the Brewers along with Lowrie to get JJ Hardy.If that doesnt work 2. SIGN FURCAL!!!!! He is GG quality...A VET..FAAAAAST...and can get on base. ORR Trade Lowrie and a Prospect to Texas for a catching prospect. WE NEED A CATCHER! Thats where the Royals trade comes in handy. We trade a good prospect (Bowden, Buckholtz, maybe even Lester) PLUS MIKE LOWELL and get a Starting Pitcher! MOVE ANDERSON UP and put him as our backup infeilder (REPLACES SEAN CASEY) BAM....Lastly SIGN VTEK TO EXTENTION 2 years...and let him mentor the new catcher :)
#27
Posted by Chris, November 21, 2008 3:42 PM
Ortiz is on the decline. It hurts me to say that, but it is true. Tex at 1st does not block Lars. In two years when he is ready Ortiz is likely to be gone. Then, someone can fill the void at DH.
Lowell plays the game it was meant to be played. Unfortunately, his love of the game can't overcome his age or injury. Trading him to the Rangers in a package for Salty is logical for both teams. They need a stop gap at 3rd and we need a catcher. In the that package, we could include masterson and maybe a lesser prospect.
No matter what my speculation is, Theo has the keys to the Cadillac and has the money for a Ferrari.
#28
Posted by Bob, November 21, 2008 3:52 PM
I've heard a rumor that the Cubs trade ROY Geo Soto to the Sox for Youk and Masterson.
#29
Posted by Rock, November 21, 2008 4:47 PM
BottomLineSox makes a great point in that "who in the next 2 or 3 years will be an upgrade over Tex". I'll take that one step further, signing tex now for that amount of time just means that Lars gets another couple years in AAA. That way, when Papi's contract runs out, he can step right in at DH. Some of you act like "Oh, he will kill our payroll", please remember that we are still the 4th or 5th highest payroll. They will explore trading Lowell and find a match somewhere (doesnt have to be right away) and fill a need.
#30
Posted by Tripp, November 21, 2008 4:57 PM
That rumor is bogus and a terrible deal for the Sox. You don't trade a Gold Glover who just finished 3rd in the AL MVP race plus a great, cost controlled young arm for an offensive catcher.
Dunn is out of the question. Nowhere to play, makes our lineup way too left handed.
Theo has to sign Teix, even if it's 8/$180+. He's a switch hitter who hits for average and power and plays spectacular D. You put him in between Papi and Youk and he's going to have a monster year.
You have to assume the Rays will only continue to get better and the Yanks will have a rotation that looks something like CC/Burnett/Lowe/Wang/Chamberlain, Hughes, Pettitte. They will be nasty this year. The Sox need to counter that w/ a lineup that resembles the 2004 Sox.
#31
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 5:15 PM
Absolutely confused by M.A.G. - "childish infatuation of the average fan with Teixeira" - "If we sign Teixeira, moving Lowell will be the least of our worries. We are going to have to move LARS ANDERSON" - "a guy who has the potential of being". Three PROVEN 25-30hr/100rbi/gold-glove mlb players take a back seat to a 1b/dh type kid at least a year and a half from the parent club? There's a chance he begins his career as the Sox dh if Papi declines, giving Tex a rest a 1b on occasion.
#33
Posted by M.A.G, November 21, 2008 5:39 PM
Geovanni Soto is a monster. Then we could replace Youk in first... with Adam Dunn LOL
Seriously, thogh, I don't see the Cubs trading this kid.
#34
Posted by Shane, November 21, 2008 5:56 PM
redsoxfan, you said, "We trade a good prospect (Bowden, Buckholtz, maybe even Lester) PLUS MIKE LOWELL and get a Starting Pitcher!"
Why maybe even trade Lester for a starting pitcher?
#35
Posted by Shane, November 21, 2008 6:06 PM
Also just because we have the money to spend, doesn't mean we should spend it. It is about value, if you pay an extra $10 million a year for a marginal upgrade, are you getting your money's worth? The Yanks overspent like crazy and how many championships has that got them?
Now I'm not saying we should or should not get Tex, but I think the focus should be the biggest weaknesses, SS and catcher. I like the idea of J.J Hardy at short. I think an infield of Youk, Pedroia, Hardy and Lowell that then turns into Lars, Pedroia, Hardy and Youk has better value than an infield of Tex, Pedroia, Lowrie, and Youk. But then that is only if Lars lives up to potential and Hardy is actually available.
Finally, while I'm not going to say Papi is going to produce at prime level, I'm far from willing to write him off. True he had injuries the past two years, but 2007 was a very good year w/ injuries. I wouldn't call his demise before we see what happens this coming year.
#36
Posted by Evan, November 21, 2008 6:14 PM
No on Teixeira. I am not sold on you guys thinking Ortiz is kaput in two years. This is a guy who finished in the Top 5 MVP voting five years in a row before having an injury riddled season.
Everyone thought Lowell was done after 2005. Was he? No.
IT'S ONE FREAKING YEAR. Is it cause for concern? Sure? Does it deserve us calling to stick a fork in him? No.
The length and dollars of Tex are too much, not with Lars major-league ready by next September. Not when we should invest our dollars in more important positions, keystone positions like shortstop and catcher which are two of the hardest positions to find. Not first.
NO on Teixeira.
NO on Lowe.
NO on Burnett.
#37
Posted by Mick, November 21, 2008 6:25 PM
No way Youk gets traded, and no way the Cubs trade Soto. Who would catch for them? They don't have any prospects that are near ready. They also don't need 3b or 1b, unless they were thinking about trading Aramis Ramirez? But again, no way Theo parts w/ Youk. He's the poster-boy RedSox prototype.
#38
Posted by M.A.G, November 21, 2008 6:41 PM
Completely agree with Sean and Evan. By the way, I also think it's too early to call for the demise of Papi. I only wanted to make clear that EVEN if that was the case, I still don't want Teixeira.
And, if Theo can upgrade catcher and SS, that will be the best case scenario for us. Our lineup will be unstopable.
#39
Posted by Christopher in reply to comment from M.A.G, November 21, 2008 6:44 PM
DUNN, No way...too many KKKKKKK's Lots of pop but a Dave Kingman like hitter, all or nothing. Theo likes high OBP guys like Youk, Drew etc. Did anyone ever stop to think that Lowell could DH, play 3B and play a little 1B as well. If the right deal comes along we can move him but Theo will not give him away to make room. He'll get value for him or keep him until he does. Sox are dealing from a position of strength here. Tex has a lot of upside and since we already moved Manny's salary we get younger with a GG, high OBP 1B with some pop. He may stay in LA, but Theo will make it mighty tempting to come East....
#40
Posted by christopher, November 21, 2008 6:55 PM
REDSOXFAN said: We trade a good prospect (Bowden, Buckholtz, maybe even Lester) PLUS MIKE LOWELL and get a Starting Pitcher!
ARE YOU NUTS! What starting pitcher would you get back that would be better than John Lester? Lester has proven to be an elite pitch in all of MLB. Just who would you get back of equal value? The only lefty that compares is Santana & CC and both are 10x the money for not a lot more pitcher.
I would submit to you Lester may even be as good as CC by the time they both finish their careers and we compare them. He's pretty darn close now. Not as dominating for power but as effective in getting hitters out. CC's real value is in the NL where he actually can hit! Surprised more NL teams aren't in the mix.
#41
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 7:23 PM
Christopher,
If the Sox sign Tex, and they're damn sure gonna try, Lowell doesn't fit. Tex will be at 1b, Youk at 3rd, and Ortiz at dh. He has played his entire career at 3b except for 8 games at 2b in '05.
Dealing an older player, with a high salary, coming off surgery, from a surplus position doesn't put the Sox in a strong trading position. But they should get something decent because Lowell is a quality player.
#42
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 7:40 PM
On Ortiz - He may not be washed up in 2yrs but his contract Will be done.
Q At 35 do you give him a big contract?
A Depends on how he hits the next 2yrs and what options are available IN 2 YEARS.
Q Is Lars gonna be an option to replace Papi?
A Depends on how he hits the next 2yrs. He is a Prospect with 1/2 a season of AA ball under his belt.
#43
Posted by gerry, November 21, 2008 7:45 PM
Would Masterson, in the rotation April - May give Buchholz or Bowden ample time to prepare for Fenway?
If so, we don't need Burnett, Lowe, Sheets, Penny.
But with only 4 starting pitchers, and without a costly, long contract, injury-prone FA, we would have to keep Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden, which is brilliant anyway, as this is our depth as well as future.
So, the question remains, what would be another strategy to get Kelly or Salty or Monte signed on to the Red Sox as Tek's lucky protege?
If Teix heads to the Orioles or Nats or stays in LA, that would be fine. But if he might become a Yankee, then we should bring him to Boston, and see which GG ends up where. This is going to be a tight race.
#44
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 7:52 PM
Evan,
Why would an 8yr contract be too long for a 28yr old Tex?
He'd only be 36. Your not giving up on Papi being washed up in 2yrs at 35 with a large body type and the same injury that crippled Nomar's career, an I'm not either for that matter. Texiera's body type is far more likely to assure his health for a long time.
That being said, nobody can predict injury.
As far as too much money, come on man, it's the Red Sox. That's kooky-talk.
#45
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 8:14 PM
ONE THING IS FOR SURE
The Sox WILL aquire a young catcher. The names are out there, Salty/Teagarden/Martin/Shoppach etc etc...yada yada.
It WILL cost young pitching. The names are out there, Bucholtz/Bowden/Masterson/Bard/Hagadone etc etc...yada yada.
So Gerry,
If the Lugo/Willis deal goes down maybe the Sox don't pony up for overpriced FA and hope Willis can hold down the 4/5 spot in the rotation until however is left is ready.
#46
Posted by Abset, November 21, 2008 8:18 PM
I do not support the Mike Lowell trade at this point..it will be hard to move him after his hip surgery and average year he had. I think the best option for the sox would be to go after Te for his raw talent and the age factor. Youkilis is a gamer and can play almost any position so, to keep the outfield intact, you can move Pedroia to short (where he started his baseball career at and with his defensive ability it will be no problem...and Jed Lowry isnt quite there yet) move youkilis to second and have Tex at 1st....i think that would be an amazing lineup defensively, you keep Lowell's pop and defense and add another with Tex so Papi can see some better pitches....just a thought as farfetched as it is...
#47
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 8:30 PM
Shane,
Why not give Lowrie a shot at short? Assuming they have Texiera, Pedrioa, Youk, Ortiz, Drew, Bay, Ellsbury, and a new catcher who can hit a bit he won't be a much of a drag on the offense, if at all. He was solid with the glove and costs us nothing.
Obviously I agree about the catching pos. I loved Tek over the last few years but it's getting ugly.
#48
Posted by Evan in reply to comment from B, November 21, 2008 9:02 PM
B, An eight year contract would be too long because a lot can change in eight years. Two years is a reasonable commitment. Injury, poor performance... for someone like Teixeira he is likely to come out of it just fine like Manny did, but I am averse to contracts longer than four years, and Theo has yet to sign a player more than five years long (JD Drew) and I believe he's the only person he's signed that long?
The Red Sox certainly have a big market for money, more than a lot of other teams, but they do have an end-point. The Yankees are the only team that do not have an end-point. If we sign Teix to that deal, mark my words, at some point the Sox will experience a money crunch with Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon and all our other young guys.
I would much rather keep Lowell and Youkilis and invest the money in shortstop, whether that means using the money to eat Lugo's contract and dump him and install Jed Lowrie or signing someone like Rafael Furcal and then a solid starter for the #4/5 slot, someone like Ben Sheets would be a nice investment, I think.
#49
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 9:25 PM
Evan,
Contract costs will go up with arbitration over time. Some players will get regular contracts. Agreed. But the continuing development of the farm system will give the Sox internal options to combat those issues. I hated 5yrs for Drew too.
But you CANNOT plan a roster over what MIGHT happen 4 yrs down the road. You put out the best team you can field each year. Manny @ 20m, Schilling @ 8m, Timlin @ 4m and perhaps VTek @ 10m are coming off the books. You may eat some of Lugo and Lowell's salaries but save the rest.
And I really don't see the Sox overpaying for a FA 4/5 pitcher. They may pick one up through trade or use Bucholtz or Bowden. You could still afford a large contract for Tex and be covered against injury at all positions. The team has good flexibilty at all positions.
#50
Posted by john, November 21, 2008 9:35 PM
If a guy like tex is available, you take it. Don't be foolish Theo. Do IT!!
#51
Posted by Evan in reply to comment from B, November 21, 2008 9:52 PM
Then what with Lars Anderson and David Ortiz? What if Ortiz bounces back to his previous levels and Lars explodes?
We can't trade Tex unless the Sox waive the no-trade stipulation they have, Papi can't be traded without his consent and shouldn't be, and Lars is the future.
We could always trade Tex I suppose, but I believe Boras will look for a NTC.
#52
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 10:19 PM
Evan,
Good problems to have. Ortiz, I believe, reached 10+5 rights after last season. No trade without consent. Expect some form of ntc for Tex to be asked for by Boras and oppossed by Theo. Who knows what will end up on paper?
Again though, Anderson is a PROSPECT. He shows great PROMISE. But you CANNOT build your mlb roster for '09 on what a AA prospect MIGHT BE.
See for example: Dernell Stenson, Len Bias, Reggie Lewis
#53
Posted by B, November 21, 2008 10:40 PM
P.S. to everyone.
JD Drew at five yrs @14m/per
Dice K at six yrs @11m/per + $51m just to chat
For players they want Theo HAS and WILL extended contract length and $ value. Don't think there is some set in stone organizational philosophy that says no terms over 5 years for anyone period.
#54
Posted by Alex, November 21, 2008 10:48 PM
Some of you guys are all against signing Teixeira to a big deal but what you don't realize is that an opportunity like this only comes up once in a while. Look at the last time a free agent of his caliber was on the market, Manny Ramirez in 2000 and look how that turned out for the sox, they rode his bat to 2 world series', and Tex isn't the type of selfish, self-absorbed person who will quit on his teammates and his fans because he felt like the organization was mistreating him, making him work hard and play every day. What I'm saying is that no matter what kind of prospects you have that you think are going to turn out as stars in the majors you have the opportunity to get a premier player in his prime, an opportunity for a franchise changing player on a franchise where you already have playoff capabilities. You sign Teixeira, you have FOUR guys with realistic 30 HR/YR capabilities in Ortiz, Youkilis, Bay, and Teixeira. Add on the fact that J.D. Drew has a very outside shot of still becoming a force in that lineup and Pedroia, who hit 20 last year between the regular and postseasons combined, PLUS, none of those guys are Adam Dunn types who hit 40 HR's/YR but hits in the low .200's in average, they all hit for power AND a pretty good average. Teixeira is the only player in this free agent class worth whatever money he and his dirtbag agent Scott Boras ask for. Also, on the fourth outfielder situation, Milton Bradley is a free agent and there's probably a very outside chance he'll sign with us a a fourth guy but in my mind he would be the ideal man for the job. He has power from both sides of the plate, all he needs is a Bill Belichick attitude adjustment and we would be golden.
#55
Posted by gerry, November 21, 2008 11:33 PM
Amazing comments. This has been enjoyable and informative. I think, after such a quiet 2007 post-season, and so much quiet this time around in the face of so much potential, everyone has been waiting anxiously for Theo to do something. When he finally did with Coco-Rram, everyone seems excited by what is possible.
I think we all like this team back and, like Theo, are merely looking for the best ways to add a little (or a lot) here and there. Choices remain a FA pitcher, or not; which catcher and for what or whom; Rocco? and to Teix or not. Sounds to me like we are getting ready for another WS run.
And I know Theo will think of a way to bring in a top catcher without giving up the kids.
#56
Posted by Sam K, November 21, 2008 11:48 PM
Since freaking when is Mark Teixeira anywhere near being a player of Manny Ramirez's caliber?
And that's what you guys -- those of you who are calling for us to sign Tex -- fail to understand. Can you really say that you've taken the time to examine Teixeira's numbers? I think not, because if you had, no way would you be willing to Boras-Monster prices for the guy.
Tex is overrated. Good bat, good glove, switch-hitter, but not so good that he's worth nixing all of our carefully-laid pieces. We have Lowell, Youk, Papi, and Lars in place. We don't need Teixeira, period.
#57
Posted by M.A.G in reply to comment from Evan, November 21, 2008 11:48 PM
Don't waste your time, Evan.
#58
Posted by M.A.G in reply to comment from Sam K, November 21, 2008 11:58 PM
You are absolutely right, Sam K.
#59
Posted by Ben G, November 22, 2008 12:27 AM
Ok, Am I the only person that even remembers Orlando Cabrera? I think Lowrie is great and plays well enough to start, but OC is available, and we won't have to trade anyone (Hardy) or pay big money (Furcal). Probably could get him for 1-2 years until Lowrie matures. Not saying that we should drop everything and go get him, but he would be a better option in my mind then previously mentioned candidates. And about Teixeira, I think we oughta go ahead and get him, he is proven vs. Lars Anderson is a prospect and only that for now. Yes he will be big money and yes some things will get moved around, but it will be well worth it. And I'm not saying get Teixeira to replace Ortiz, get him to replace what Manny was. And about Anderson, I don't agree he'll be ready by the end of next year, I could be wrong, but I don't. At the end of two years, potentially Ortiz could be out the door, leaving the DH spot wide open. Possibly put Anderson at DH in 2 years? Still would have Teixeira and still use Anderson. And last thing, definitely trade Lugo for Willis given the chance, I don't care if we have to pay his salary. Farrell is a great coach, esp. with young guys, and I think he'd have a good shot at turning D-Train back into the pitcher he was when he won 20 games.
#60
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 12:34 AM
Sam K,
What carefully laid piece is Lowell? He was originally a throw-in salary dump requirement in the Beckett deal from Florida. He was resigned because he was the best available option, unless you thought the Sox should've outbid NY for A-Rod.
He is a better "player" than Manny "now". Not a better "hitter", a better "player".
In FIRST six years he averaged over 30hrs/100rbi/nearly .300 avg.
He is about to enter his prime years. And he DOES NOT affect Youkilis, Ortiz, or that AA PROSPECT so many people keep mentioning.
#61
Posted by JaredK, November 22, 2008 1:06 AM
Ben, Lowrie is ready to play now and put up a higher ops then Cabrera in his first mlb exposure playing through an injury. Also Lowrie will be 25 at the start of next season so on top of being ready to contribute his time is now versus a 34 y/o Cabrera. Lowrie posted a higher ops despite only hitting .258 and he is a good bet to be a .280+ hitter given a full season. Also Lowrie made zero errors at ss in 49 games compared to 16 in 161 for Cabrera. Lowrie had a higher zone rating at shortstop and was ranked higher by the fielding bible defensively at short then Cabrera as well.
#62
Posted by SamR, November 22, 2008 1:24 AM
Wow. A lot of comments since last time I checked. A lot of pretty insane ones too. No offense intended. But I would like to calm everyone a bit. Alot of new people commenting so. Just chill a bit. Stop and think. We have to be careful about what we do here. Nothing is simple in the Hot Stove. We can't just do whatever we want. We have to go at it rationally and with a plan.
Tex over the next 8 years would not be what Manny was for us over the last 8. He's not that good. Plain and simple. That doesn't mean we shouldnt think about signing him. It does however mean would should not go crazy and sign him for whatever he wants because we think we HAVE to have him. We don't. That's the beauty of our position. I think we are set up pretty well (not perfectly, but well enough and cheaply enough) and we can afford to stop and think about where we wanna go from here. Rather than going all Steinbrenner and just buying everybody we can get our hands on.
Stop and think. Have a plan. And be careful. That's all I ask of Theo.
#63
Posted by Beantown West, November 22, 2008 1:48 AM
Is Mark Teixeira a "Manny-like" hitter?? Hell no! Is anyone?? Probably not. Does signing Mark Teixeira solidify the middle of the Sox lineup for the next 8 years? You bet your sweet A** he does. Injuries or not, the Sox simply cannot pass up the opportunity to sign a player the caliber of Mark Teixeira! It's as if all of you "above average" FANS (and I emphasize FANS!) have not been watching baseball outside of Fenway the past few years. You all love Theo, but you don't trust his judgment to pursue a player like this? Come on! As for the numbers?? Not Manny Ramirez numbers (who is?), but great numbers by age 28 nonetheless!
Manny-Tex numbers at age 28
Games: 967-904
At-Bats: 3470-3414
Runs: 665-566
Hits: 1086-989
2Bs: 237-223
HRs: 236-203
RBIs: 804-676
BBs: 541-442
Ks: 780-694
Avg: .313-.290
OBP: .407-.378
SLG: .592-.541
Not Manny numbers, but great numbers for Tex after 6 seasons!! Stick him in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for the next 8 years, watch Theo consistently surround him with talent, and expect his numbers to earn the contract Theo's about to offer him!
#64
Posted by BEANTOWN WEST, November 22, 2008 1:51 AM
One last thing....
This looks like the same string of responses I read back in 2000 when the Red Sox were pursuing Manny. "Don't do it!", "We shouldn't resort to being like the Yankees!", "We're lovable losers!".
Not anymore!
Theo's building champions!!
From the inside first....
and from the outside if the player warrants it.
#65
Posted by Vic, November 22, 2008 7:34 AM
Definitely go after Teixeira......fits the Sox style of patient hitters.....major upgrade to the lineup.....in a unpopular suggestion, look to see what the market is for trading Papi.....then have a rotation of everyday players at DH,like Lowell,Drew,Ellsbury,etc.....Lars is a couple of years away.....even at that time, he will be worked into the lineup gradually.....Sox are also high on Taylor Teagarden of Texas....maybe not cost as much as Salty.....Tek will come back......no one else is going to blow him away with a deal and the Sox will sign him for two plus option.....leave Masterson in the pen and go after a guy like Penny loaded with incentives....even with only 15-20 starts because of injuries, the Sox will have the young stud arms waiting.....
#66
Posted by M.A.G, November 22, 2008 8:47 AM
Apparently many people here don't understand (or, more precisely, don't want to understand) the simple concept of player value. Nobody here said Teixeira is a bad player. In fact, Ryan Howard is a pretty good player too, but he is not very valuable for a team like the Cardinals, for example. They have a nice player called Albert Pujols, so breaking the bank for Howard has no sense for them. First base is a position of strenght for the Sox, and a position we got more than secured for very long time thanks to the fact our best prospect is a first baseman.
So, the bottom line is Teixeira is not a really a valuable player for us. He is certainly much more valuable for the Angels and for the Yankees, and that's why we can count of them making a big move. He makes sense for the Nationals too, because they need a big name to build a fan base. But, for the Red Sox, he is nothing but an inmense waste of money. Money we should use to improve upgrade the team in a significant way, and not in a marginal way.
The lust for Teixeira is nothing more than a media induced obsesion. Big names makes big news. And I think the Sox are showing interest in Teixeira only because they want to raise his paycheck in case he ends with the Yanks. But entering in a bidding war with NY and LA to get him, would be an extremelly dumb move.
#67
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 10:11 AM
Tex has a better bat than Youk. He's an upgrade at 1b.
Youk is better than Lowell at this point. He's an upgrade at 3b.
A full season of Lowrie is an upgrade over last year.
Pedrioa is a GG MVP. There is no upgrade.
By signing 1 guy you upgrade 3 positions but you say he wouldn't have value to us.
For everyone opposed to Tex based on the lofty expectations of Lars Anderson, please answer this question:
If we keep Youk at 1b and Lowell at 3b and both are signed through the next 2yrs, then which one of those two are you going to cut the break lines on to get rid of?
My point being that even the Sox don't sign Tex, you should already consider Lars as blocked.
Say the Sox stay status quo on the infield, the Sox spend 2yrs getting older and less productive because they're waiting for a hole to open for Lars to make things cheaper and better. Two years pass and Lowell's contract is up so you move Youk to third. Lars slides into 1b and you all yell halleliuah!! But then you realize Ortiz's contract just ran out and you need a new dh. Oops
#68
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 10:23 AM
To clarify my position on actually signing Tex:
I don't believe he's an absolute must have. The Sox will still have a good team if they return last years players. I can see them improving simply by adding a better bat behind the plate.
I can't however understand how anyone can possibly not see how adding Tex and subtracting an aging Lowell doesn't make them even better, younger, more productive and stable for the next 5yrs. There is no reason not to like Tex. Unless the bidding gets to A-Rod $$ I say sign him. If you extend what was Manny's contract to Tex it actually has less real value than Manny's because of inflation. Those who are crying he's not as good as Manny can take heart in that fact.
#69
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 10:26 AM
On the cry to upgrade SS,
Give Lowrie a shot. He's done nothing not to deserve a chance. You could alway look for a trade before July deadline. JJ Hardy may still be available for all of the JJ Hardy lovers.
#70
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 10:33 AM
On trading Lowell
Be creative. Find a trade partner. Structure a deal favorable to both sides. Have either a group of players available from, and/or monetary compenstation to, the team aquiring Lowell. If he plays to certain perfomance levels we get a better player and pay less of his salary. If he comes back and isn't as effective for his new team after surgery, we get a lesser player and pay more of his salary. We don't need anyone in return right now, so he could have most of next season to prove his value.
#71
Posted by B, November 22, 2008 11:48 AM
One last post
If the Sox sign Tex.
And Ortiz starts hitting the cover off the ball.
And Lars is ready before Papi's contract is up.
Ortiz can approve a trade to a team he likes. And if Papi is being Papi what team wouldn't want him at 12.5m/yr on a short contract.
This worst case scenario for the "Lars is blocked group", is actually the best case scenario for the team. They wouldn't have to eat any of Papi's salary, save 12.5m toward Tex's salary, and get a decent player or prospects back in trade. They would also be younger, under team control, and well within budget for the next 4-5 yrs. That would allow the organization to seriously focus on the farm assuring a constant stream of quality players starting to mature when this group ages and reaches free agency.
EVAN - thanks for the article and the forum. I like what your doing here and wish you continued success. I hope you continue to attract posters who are as knowledgeable and polite as the ones I've found in this discussion.
Peace out.
#72
Posted by gerry, November 22, 2008 11:57 AM
Mike Lowell, on a bad day, is better with bat, glove and grit than most of the league's 3rd basemen. He beat cancer, and will beat this rather routine surgery, and come back in great shape . . . meaning he will be having mostly good days. He he will hit at least to Bill James' predictions, which are very good. My bet is he will, literally, will himself back to that next level, as he has much to prove, and will be in fantastic shape from the rehab. Mike may be one of the mentally toughest guys on the Sox.
My point is, if we don't get Teix, we will still have a Gold Glove infield with OBP & power. If we get Teix, any team that gets Mike will greatly improve their infield. Texas and Cleveland BOTH need an upgrade at 3b.
And thank you, Jared, for comparing Orlando to Jed. We tend to forget how awestruck we were with Lowrie's clutch hitting before his fractured and sprained wrist shut him down. Remember all those zingers off the wall and all those RBI's??? He was a high BA, OPS in MiLB and was the same when he took over from Julio. His final BA does not reflect either his high side nor his contributions. With his wrist healed he will not regress. Zero errors. Good range and growinig. Soft hands. Heads up ballplayer. Versatile. Good team mate. Age 24. Farm raised. Still a rookie. We finally have our SS. Let's leave him alone for awhile, shall we?
#73
Posted by Dana, November 22, 2008 11:57 AM
Lars can be the guy to step in for Ortiz when that day comes and I'd rather keep Lowell as a utility infielder if trade value is not high but this hinges on moving Lugo without having to swallow all that cash meaning trading for a bad contract pitcher ala those mentioned with Detroit.
#74
Posted by pony in reply to comment from M.A.G, November 22, 2008 2:51 PM
youk playing in left fied with tex on first and lowell on third ain't bad thinking. that's alot of offense baby
#75
#1
Posted by M.A.G, November 20, 2008 12:57 PM
Massarotti is a moron. And I hope Theo is not going to fall for his stupid "sign Teixeira" campaign. Like the trade of Coco demonstrates, our FO likes moving in the shadows, and usually Theo don't show his cards until the last minute. So, I sincerely hope all this Teixeira crap is nothing but a smoke curtain and a maneuver to raise his price for the enemy. I will be very dissapointed if our GM throws all that money in the garbage for a player we don't need. I understand the childish infatuation of the average fan with Teixeira, but I expect more intelligence of Epstein.
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