The Next Bartolo Colon

November 21, 2008 at 10:37 AM

31 Comments

Recommended (4) | Share

Could Pedro and the Red Sox reunite? - flickr (ac4lt)

From the likes of Wade Miller and Kyle Snyder to Bartolo Colon the Red Sox have often found value, or potential value in signing a veteran pitcher looking to right the ship after injury or at the end of their line to a one year deal and have them fill spots at the back of the rotation.

That type of insurance policy combined with an influx of youth at the tail end of your rotation has been invaluable in recent years where the Red Sox have needed their fair share of spot starts. I can remember more Julian Tavarez starts than I care to!

While the top of the rotation certainly is full of horses (Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka) and Wakefield and the young guns (Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson) provide a solid tail, injury is unpredictable. The 2008 New York Yankees are a great proof to the theorem that you can't have enough starting pitching.

If you dance a little too close to the hot stove this winter, you are likely to get burned by rumors of AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe coming to the Red Sox. Now I am not saying that there is no smoke at all there, but interest in a free agent pitcher of that caliber (3+ years, $12 million plus per) is likely dependent on shipping some of the excess youth in the system off to Texas for a young catcher.

With rumors persisting regarding Tim Wakefield's health and *gasp* possible retirement (remember, we are in the silly season), I fully expect the Red Sox to be looking for a few of those "Bartolo Colons" to fill a short term need in the one year, sub $5 million dollar contract range (with incentives of course to make it feel bigger).

So who could be on that list?

Paul Byrd (37 years old, 2008 stats: 11-12, 4.60 ERA, 30 games started, type B)
Paul Byrd was certainly a useful addition to the club down the stretch, but I don't see the Red Sox front office clamoring for his return. The supplemental pick they get for him signing elsewhere holds more value than he does.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Bartolo Colon (35, 4-2, 3.92, 7)
The big guy showed some promise at times this season. But his voluntary leave of absence instead of entertaining thoughts of staying on the post-season roster as a long man leave doubts in my mind that Bartolo has any passion for the game left.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Freddy Garcia (32, 1-1, 4.20, 3)
Garcia has been tied to the Red Sox in the rumor mill a few times over the years. I think he'll get priced out of the tier the Red Sox would be looking for in this role.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2

Tom Glavine (42, 2-4, 5.54, 13)
Tommy Glavine isn't coming off a particularly good return to Atlanta in 2008. At 42, he has to be considering retirement. At the same time, watching a 46 year old, left handed, off speed specialist in Jamie Moyer make his run at a championship in style may give him a little more motivation to come home to MA.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 4

John Smoltz (41, 3-2, 2.57, 5, B)
It's not clear that Smoltz can rebound from recent labrum surgery to pitch this year, but a 2nd half of the season run as a starter or reliever is possible. With his track record to perform in big spots, I would put him on the same pedestal for late season help that I would Curt Schilling.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 3

Greg Maddux (42, 8-13, 4.22, 33, B)
While he still started 33 games last year, his best stuff is far behind him. I don't see this as a fit in any way.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Mike Hampton (36, 3-4, 4.85, 13)
Hampton will likely end up back with the Braves and likely back on the DL after a few starts.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Livan Hernandez (33, 13-11, 6.05, 31)
Is he really only 33? Man, I would have guessed closer to 40. He fits the contract parameters as thats bullseye to his 2008 contract. But he really looked bad for most of 2008.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2

Orlando Hernandez (41, n/a)
An El Duque sighting in Boston? I don't think so.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Randy Johnson (45, 11-10, 3.91, 30, B)
I think he'd be an interesting person to explore a one year deal with if there was a need for a full time body at the 5th position. But I don't know that Randy + Boston = Happy Randy.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1

Carl Pavano (32, 4-2, 5.77, 7)
If for nothing else than to stick it to the Yankees, it would be a fun story. He does fit the bill of someone that needs to create some value on the market for himself. But I think a small market team looking for a full time guy is a more likely scenario.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2

Mark Prior (28, n/a)
Likely to end up back in SD on a minor league contract. Would you give him a major league deal for $1 mm and see what happened? I could think of more frivolous ways to blow a million on the Red Sox roster.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2.5

Curt Schilling (42, n/a)
I think Curt's retired. That said, if the right team came calling in June, I also think he would listen (unless it were the Yankees).
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 3

Pedro Martinez (37, 5-6, 5.61, 20)
I saved Petey for last because I think it makes sense for the Red Sox, Pedro, the fans, and for the greater good of universal karma. Throw in Pedro retiring in a Red Sox uniform and the number 45 on the facade and make it happen.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 4

While none of these options are likely to result in a stud that rises as an ace or even a reliable 30+ game starter, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these names don a Red Sox jersey at some point in the 2009 season.

Categories: Bartolo Colon, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine

PREVIOUS: Fireside Chats #28: Where the hot stove keeps us warm and we tool on Evan Grant in honor of the AL MVP

NEXT: Sumo Lounge TRIVIA: 20 scoreless in a game

Discussion

31 Comments on "The Next Bartolo Colon"

Posted by Shane, November 21, 2008 1:53 PM

Ah Pedro. I'm not even going to try and be objective. I would think it was great if the Sox signed Pedro. But I can't back it up with any more than it would make me feel good. If he's healthy and could be got for cheap I can't see how it is a bad move. But if you took away the name, I doubt I'd support signing a 37 year old pitcher with shoulder problems coming from the NL.

Posted by Tim Daloisio in reply to comment from Shane, November 21, 2008 1:58 PM

Remember...were talking 10-15 starts over the year if he stinks we drop him on the DL (he'll have some nagging injury).

I know...I am talking my way into something....my objectivity is clearly shot.

It is telling that if you asked me would you rather have 1 year of Pedro or 1 year of Schilling ...I would still answer Pedro from the heart.

Posted by M.A.G, November 21, 2008 2:06 PM

I think our reclamation project for this year is Dontrelle Willis. Trade Lugo for him, and then we will see what happens.

Posted by Orange Julius, November 21, 2008 2:16 PM

Please, please remove the advertisement showing the weight loss guy who appears to have no drawers on. That is some foul stuff.

Posted by JaredK, November 21, 2008 2:19 PM

I bet Pedro ends up in SF or Arizona for short money with incentives. Terrible hitting division w/large ballparks...I think Pedro is pretty protective of his legacy 9although if that was entirely true he would retire) and will head west. I would be curious to see him in a bullpen role, maybe being able to let loose for one inning at a time...although his salary demands (I'm guessing someone will give him 6-7 mil + easy incentives) will likely make him only viable as a starter.

Not quite a full-on reclamation...I like Penny for one year for 12-13 mil + incentives. I also can't help but be intrigued with Prior. He was the reason I got drawn into the MLB draft, seeing him pitch in college I thought he would be a once-a-generation type. I think he will resign w/ San Diego although that franchise is such a mess with the financial uncertainty and uncertainty surrounding ownership. That being said i think he would like to stay under the radar (small market) after being counted on in Chicago for so many years and not being able to contribute and imagine he will stay near home on the west coast either way.

Posted by radiohix, November 21, 2008 2:38 PM

OMG,
Pedro in Red Sox uniform again? It's like the Mona Lisa in the Louvre!!
I swear I'll flight straight from Tunisia to see him pitch!
Please Do it Theo!

Posted by Peter N, November 21, 2008 2:49 PM

I don't think the Sox will have Colon on ANY of their lists. He was, is and will be a BUM. Always and forever...he was born that way. Because he might have been relegated to a bullpen role, he fled the darn country, deserting his team (as only Manny has, but worse). He's caput to me. Finis, BYE BYE.

Posted by Peter N, November 21, 2008 2:51 PM

Love your site, Evan.

Posted by Tim Daloisio in reply to comment from Orange Julius, November 21, 2008 3:01 PM

yeah....that is totally killing me!!!!!!

#10

Posted by Tim Daloisio in reply to comment from Tim Daloisio, November 21, 2008 3:01 PM

that was meant to thread with @orange julius

#11

Posted by JS, November 21, 2008 3:30 PM

And was it really necessary for him to be naked? Please make it go away.

#12

Posted by Tim Daloisio in reply to comment from JS, November 21, 2008 4:34 PM

PLEAAAASE

#13

Posted by gerry, November 21, 2008 4:56 PM

Just read Curt Schilling discussing a late-season/half-season/ post-season go. He prefers Boston but is open to pitching elsewhere ... if he decides he can do it. He might rank better than a "3", Tim, or not.

He also stated he very recently talked with Tek who discussed coming back on a reasonable contract to catch (less) and train up his replacement; and believes the Sox are shopping for that replacement right now.

I like both of these scenarios very much. And even if spot starting, Pedro at a good price, retiring a Red Sox along side of Schill would be so appropriate.

#14

Posted by Tim Daloisio, November 21, 2008 6:12 PM

Please not about the relative scale....3 would be 30%....which felt fairly high...could go 40% on that one with comfort though.

#15

Posted by Evan in reply to comment from Tim Daloisio, November 21, 2008 6:15 PM

Haha alright alright I'll make it go away. I admit it's pretty offputting.

Pedro or Schilling (or both?) would be awesome. I love Petey, but personally, the Sox should chase Brad Penny.

#16

Posted by gerry, November 21, 2008 7:50 PM

Chase the short term $8M Brad Penny or the long term $13M one? I like the one or two year $8M "comeback" deal suggested earlier, with options.

#17

Posted by Joe, November 22, 2008 8:54 AM

Brad Penny or Mark Mulder anyone?

#18

Posted by M.A.G, November 22, 2008 10:16 AM

I preffer to sign Penny short-term too. An then trade Lugo for Willis just to see what happens. Lugo don't worth anything, so we have nothing to lose.

#19

Posted by Bob, November 22, 2008 10:52 AM

I'd prefer not to bring back Schilling mid-season. I would be thrilled to see Pedro come back where he belongs. The most significant pitcher in Red Sox history should retire with Boston.

#20

Posted by Sean O in reply to comment from gerry, November 22, 2008 11:35 AM

If Schilling comes back for a half-season type thing, he better do it for the league minimum. After a considerable portion of RSN considers him a fraud for bilking us out of $8m last year, it better turn into a two year 8.5m deal instead.

#21

Posted by B, November 22, 2008 1:15 PM

Can't help thinking the Lugo/Willis deal happens. If it does you've got to give him a shot. If he regains his form you have a hell of a bargain at 2yrs 11m/per. He might even become tradeable without loss during the season. If not you were going to get zip out of Lugo anyway.

If he doesn't pan out, Schilling is a perfect fit. Just cash for 1/2 a season. I don't think he lacks the confidence in himself to sign a heavily incentive-based deal.

Pedro and the Sox didn't part the greatest of friends. Loved watching him pitch and clown in the dugout but didn't appreciate the extra drama.

With Bucholtz/Bowden/Masterson soon to be ready why overpay a F/A. None of the following will sign for less than 2yrs at 10m minimum:
Penny/Lowe/Sheets/Burnett/Garcia

#22

Posted by JaredK, November 22, 2008 2:05 PM

Garcia and Penny probably will both sign for one year....they both have a lot to prove health wise and would benefit in getting a healthy, productive year in and cashing in more in 2010. I don't mind overpaying for one year of Penny, we have the cash and Bucholz/Bowden in the wings if it doesn't work out.

#23

Posted by Bob, November 22, 2008 2:35 PM

screw Schilling, the way he defrauded the team was no better than Manny. I'd rather rebuild the bridge with Pedro who always loved the fans and the city and who we know will always give 100% even when he doesn't feel 100% than Schilling who'll probably sign then have his doctor throw garbage at the Sox in the media while he sits at home collecting his paycheck and playing World of Warcraft instead of doing his job. The last time Schilling signed a heavy-incentive deal he couldn't get off his ass enough to stay in the shape it required so he got injured.

Pedro in his prime was the right-handed Koufax, a once in 2 generations force of nature. He sacrificed the tail end of his career because he was always willing to go the extra mile for the team. He didn't leave on great terms, but that relationship can be repaired and the drama can be put aside. He belongs in a Boston uniform and I think that 99% of the fans would be elated to see him back.

Also I wouldn't be too upset at a Lugo/Willis swap although I do think that getting Nate Robertson would probably be the better option, Willis has been getting worse every year and has played his career in two great pitchers parks, I don't think he'll ever regain what he was, Robertson is probably a safer bet to at least be usable.

#24

Posted by B, November 22, 2008 3:46 PM

Bob,

If you remember the off-season Shilling signed his last deal, you should recall he and the Sox were at odds over how to deal with his shoulder. He ended up being right. He needed surgery. They told him to rest. He played Warcraft. Dropping 10 pounds wasn't giong to stop the rubber band holding his shoulder together from popping.

Loved Pedro but he's done. Just like Koufax. Broke down early. He was the best pitcher I have ever seen when he was here. The best I may ever see period. But he's done. And he was always all about the $$. He'll never give us a discount.

Willis/Robertson. Willis has been something. Roberston has never ever proved a damn thing ever.

#25

Posted by B, November 22, 2008 4:08 PM

By the way, I'd love to see Pedro back here were he belongs to finish his career too.

I just see him as our next pitching coach. Instructing our young guys as his little buddy Nelson Delarosa runs around like a mad ferret shagging fly balls during batting practice.

#26

Posted by B, November 22, 2008 4:12 PM

My bad.

Just checked Nelson's stats.

Apparently, he Mahow won't be returning any time soon.

#27

Posted by B, November 22, 2008 4:15 PM

As the skipper would say

"Goodnight little buddy"

#28

Posted by Bob, November 22, 2008 6:39 PM

No Schilling signed the deal knowing full well that his shoulder would need rehab or surgery, then half-assed his rehab and collected a paycheck for sitting on his ass. Maybe that isn't fraud, but it's certainly unethical. A great athlete knows when he isn't healthy and if Schilling was being honest he would have disclosed that to the team before signing the deal. If Pedro's done then Schilling is just as cooked, he can't reach 90 anymore either and he's never had secondary stuff as good as Pedro's.

#29

Posted by Evan in reply to comment from Bob, November 22, 2008 9:09 PM

He had medical tests before signing the contract that came back clean.

#30

Posted by gerry, November 22, 2008 10:57 PM

He is a pretty scrupulous and open guy, and a legitimate Red Sox hero.

IMO, the prior medical tests, his following the Sox treatment regimen against his doc's advice, his meeting all demands for time and responsibilities placed on him by the Sox, his support of the team and its players, his community activities, and his loyalty to the team, should allow a grateful RSN to give Schill the benefit of the doubt. That said, I hope he makes a come back, for the Sox, and has a great half season at, as MAG says, $8.5M or in the realm of Colon's comeback contract.

It would be great to have Pedro spot start from the Pen in the first half, and Schill in the second half; and retire together. If they use the opportunity to reestablish their careers, that would be cool.

#31

Posted by JaredK, November 23, 2008 10:56 AM

I never held any animosity towards Schilling for the contract issue...bottom line is the guys shoulder had not felt 100% in years...its tough to say it has deteriorated to point where you can't pitch when you have been pitching at decreased velocity and discomfort for a couple of years. There are plenty of reasons for people to not like Schill but for me this is not one of 'em. Either way, I don't we'll be in a position where it makes sense to commit to him even for a half year given our potential rotation depth, especially if we sign a 5th starter and hold onto Clay/Bowden.

via RSS

Poll

Which former Red Sox would you most like to see on the team this year?(answers)

MVN: Most Valuable Network