Amazed I was, in comparing A.J. Burnett’s 2008 breakout year stats against the rest of the Red Sox rotation, to find that A.J. would probably rank as the #4 starting pitcher at Fenway, while earning 2x – 40x more than the rest.
Following are what curiosity and wonderful stats from mlb and fangraphics revealed.
First, A.J. is a true strikeout machine with 231 (vs. next closest Josh’s 172), and pitched a career best 221 innings in 34GS and a terrific 18Wins. Great stuff, but that is the good part. On the negative side, following are comparisons of how he ranked vs. the best in other categories. Compared with 2008 Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester & Tim Wakefield, he had:
the highest OBA, .312 vs. Josh’s .300 (in one of Josh’s worst seasons).
the 4th highest SLG, .388 vs. Daisuke’s .304.
the 4th highest ERA, .4.07 vs. Daisuke’s 2.9.
the highest WHIP, 1.34 vs. Wake’s 1.18.
Those are some of the big categories, but the trend continues in less important but still significant and telling areas. For example he ranked:
#3 in L, tied with Josh with 10 vs. Daisuke’s 3.
#4 in HR, 19 vs. Daisuke’s 12.
#4 in BB, 86 vs. Josh’s 34.
#4 in SB, 22 vs. Josh’s 7.
#4 in P/IP, 16.48 vs. Wake’s 13.61.
#5 in ER, 100 vs. Daisuke’s 54.
#5 in Blks. 2 vs. Daisuke, Josh, Wake’s 0, and Lester’s 1.
#5 in H, 211 vs. Daisuke’s 128
He was tops in put outs (4) and #2 in CS (9), but this ties in with opposing teams running on him. (4 pickoffs + 9CS = 13 + 22SB = 35 chances).
So what would we get for 5 years and $80,000,000.00, or $16,000,000.00 per year? A potentially very good pitcher, following a break out year which some claim indicates that his health problems were repetitive and are behind him. Other reports say he is still a risk to miss half a season most of those five years.
With two talented new pitchers to beef up the bullpen (Papelbon, RRamirez, Oki, MDC, Littleton, Lopez, Aardsma/Gronk/Hansack, I wonder if Justin Masterson could produce a 6-3 record with a 3.9ERA in April and May? I’ll bet he could. I wonder if Buchholz, starting June-September, might continue Justin’s work with a 12-6 record? I’ll bet he could.
The point of this exercise was to see how high up A.J. would rank in the Sox rotation; could he be the new #2 ?? The surprising result is that he would probably be an $18M #4 or #5. Pass.
P.S. Another nice surprise is how Jon Lester came out. He is #1 in complete games (2), shutouts (2) and #2 in GS (33), IP (210), ERA (3.21), HR (14), SLG (.368), SB (8), pickoff (3). And, without an extension, his paycheck would be 30 – 40x less than AJ? That won’t fly.
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I am going to have to agree with you here Gerry. I think there are many better ways to go than Burnett both with the rotation and with the dollars (i.e. Teixeira),
I have read an interesting article debating Burnett versus Sheets. Here’s the link:
http://riveraveblues.com/2008/11/the-free-agent-starter-debate-sheets-vs-burnett-6041/
Sheets is going to be cheaper than Burnett, so, assuming the price is reasonable, maybe he could be an option worth considering.
Interesting article M.A.G. I’ve never liked Burnett, and I think he’ll be grossly overpaid. If you can get Sheets for 2 years w/ a third option for a reasonable rate I’d take it.
It’s official. No AJ. Unfortunately he didn’t stay with the Jays or move to Atlanta, he joins CC Sabathia on the Yanks, which could be problematic in 2009 if he stays healthy, as he is 5 – 0 vs. the Red Sox. Maybe Teix, J.Bay, Rocco and our new catcher will beat him into submission.