IT’S THE HOLIDAY SEASON! WHY NOT GIVE A ‘DESTROIA’ OR ‘MONSTERSON’ SHIRT AS A GIFT?
With the acquisitions of relievers Ramon Ramirez and Wes Littleton, the likelihood that the Red Sox utilize Justin Masterson as a starter is rather high.
To be sure, the Sox could waive David Aardsma and Littleton and sign a starter or may have other plans in mind that necessitate trading some of their other young relievers, but the possibility certainly exists that the plan all along is to have Masterson as the No. 5 starter.
Is it a good idea? Let’s take a look.
In Masterson’s first year in the bigs, he had a 6-5 record, started nine games and relieved in 27. He pitched a total of 88.1 innings while checking in at a 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. His xFIP, (a pitcher’s ERA that is both normalized and includes only things a pitcher is directly responsible for) however, was almost a full run higher at 4.28. As a No. 5 starter, a 4.28 xFIP would be rather impressive, but can he be counted on to maintain that?
Given that he had a total of 136 innings pitched in 2008 and 153.2 innings in 2007, he seems equipped to handle the workload of a back of the rotation starter, perhaps having his starts skipped on occasion to ensure he is healthy for the postseason. It could also be that they could go the Clay Buchholz route with him (even though Buchholz was ineffective) and demote him for a brief period of time midseason.
Working against him is his ineffectiveness against left-handers. In the bigs last season, he had a 1.51 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average against lefties. He allowed six homers to left-handed pitchers, two more than allowed against right-handers in 10 less innings. This may prove problematic against a left-heavy lineup that teams can throw against him, especially the New York Yankees.
In the minor leagues (Portland and Pawtucket combined) he had a 1.22 WHIP against lefties compared to 1.16 against right-handers. He did not give up a homer to a right-hander, but did give up one to a lefty. That said, he did walk less and strike out more left-handers than right-handers percentage-wise but gave up 27.1 percent of hits against lefties as compared to 13.2 against right-handers.
Long story short, the issue with Masterson looks to be that of simple elevation — left-handers see the ball more effectively and are able to naturally elevate Masterson’s sinker far more than that of right-handers.
So are his problems against left-handers enough to stop him from starting? Is he going to spend his career as a reliever who only pitches against right-handers?
Perhaps so, but for 2009, there is no reason why he can’t log innings in the back of the rotation. Despite the relative success of left-handers against Justin Masterson, he is no John Van Benschoten against them.
Masterson, in his nine starts, averaged roughly six innings per start which would work out to 192 innings pitched over a full season of starts (generally 32 starts).
Is there a reason to pour big money and big years into an A.J. Burnett (Gerry explains why that would be a bad idea) or Derek Lowe (as I have argued against)? Or should the Sox go with Ramirez and Littleton as their relievers and start Justin Masterson?
Given Masterson’s impressive debut (yes, Buchholz had an impressive one in 2007, I know) and his propensity for ground balls, the Sox should look to him as a starter. Worst case, they can always shift him back to the rotation and either dip into their pool of resources in Triple-A or acquire another Paul Byrd (or Byrd himself!).
In fact, something to ponder: Did the Red Sox make those moves to market him as a starter in the trade market? His value would undoubtedly be higher as a starter and this may be a posturing move on behalf of the Red Sox to drive his price up.
If so, it would be a smart strategy, but then again, Theo Epstein is a smart man.
And if Masterson stays with no new starter acquired, causing him to battle for the No. 5 spot against Clay Buchholz?
I won’t lose sleep over that.
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I think his stuff, delivery, and splits indicate that he’s a reliever long-term. Not necessarily a specialist, but probably a multi-inning type reliever. Honestly, as valuable as another starter would be I think it actually may be more important to keep Masterson in the pen and let him settle into a role as Paps’ primary set-up man, we saw how unstable the bullpen was for most of last season and it may have cost the Red Sox home-field in the playoffs. That said, it probably wouldn’t hurt to put the 5th spot in the rotation up for grabs between Masterson, Clay and Bowden. Masterson is probably the most ready, although Clay probably has the highest ceiling. Competition among young players on a roster is usually good for development, I think it could help all three of them.
I really want Paul Byrd to accept arbitration. He would be an excellent No. 5 and would push Masterson into the bullpen and make Buchholz earn a spot.
I see both sides and say stretch him out as a starter in spring training so he can work on his change-up as a bt of an equalizer against lefties….who mashed him as a starter. I ultimately would hope Clay or Bowden (or to a lesser degree Byrd) would show enough to earn the 5th starter role and a bullpen with righty arms of MDC, Ramirez and Masterson for the 5th/6th/7th/8th for would be pretty damn good…all three able to pitch 1 plus if necessary. Either way, more moves to come and I’m sure it will become more apparent by the time the roster shakes out. I do believe that Masterson may be able to give you nearly most of everything (eventually more) a Lowe would for about 60 million less.
Jack Wilson to the Tigers, so we’re stuck with Lugo.
Excellent article. Masterson came from AA and wound up being a major player on the mound. He is no longer that AA kid, and is ready to pitch, and is probably ready to start. IF he starts and does well, he can stay there. IF he starts and does OK, but again projects as a reliever, by the time that becomes clear, either Buchholz or Bowden will be ready to start and Justin again firms up the bullpen. If Buchholz or Bowden don’t do well, there will be another 5th arm available, like Byrd, who will be brought in.
So, in a worst case scenario, all of Masterson, Buchholz and Bowden fail in 2009, and a bailout pitcher will be available to step in. The worst case scenario seems absurd. These 3 pitchers have already shown what they can do. IMO, we have in Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden the CC, AJ, Fuentes of a few years from now. Why trade them?
Wilson rumor debunked.
Superfantastic. Keep hope of losing lugo.
I definitely think that these players have great potential, but to predict them as CC, AJ, and Fuentes seems ridiculous right now. I think that if good value could be had for any one of them, a trade would be a good idea. As you have alluded to in the article, we have enough options that we would be fine in the short and long term.
Trouble is, we are talking about trading Buchholz, Masterson or Bowden, each of whom has had success at Fenway but are still rookie prospects, in exchange for Salty, Teagarten, Monte who are also merely high potential players. NONE of these 6 have proven themselves long term, and all 6 have issues: i.e., Salty appears weak on D, TG is inconsistent.
G. Laird, K. Shoppach and R. Martin MAY be available and are proven commodities. Both Kelly and Gerald can be had without trading one of our pitching prospects or Jed Lowrie. Kelly is from the Sox farm system and would fit right in.
My points are:
1. Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden may realistically in the range of efffectiveness in the rotation as a high $$ FA. Why not use them?
2. we don’t need to trade any of these three to get a quality catcher, so why do so?
3. even if we sign AJ, the possibility of injury to AJ, Wake or even Josh or Daisuke are high. Our depth is Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson. We used 23 pitchers in 2008, and these three project to be season savers in 2009. Why trade away our depth if we don’t need to?
If Salty and TG are projected to POSSIBLY be the next Tek, then Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson can be projected to POSSIBLY be the next CC, AJ, Fuentes. Why not?
Good article, summing up the issue well.
Is it just me, or did Masterson make a change with his slider during the year? When he first came up, it had an almost completely lateral break. By the end of the year, it was diving down and in to lefties more and it looked to me like he was doing better against them.
This kid is in his second year and really only had one month in the majors where he was even mediocre — that would be June, when he had a 4.54 ERA. The rest of the time he was a pretty excellent pitcher. His sole weaknesses seem to be the long ball and walks against lefties. Doesn’t it seem logical to assume that he might be able to make at least some improvements in those areas? He may not turn out to be Brandon Webb or even Derek Lowe, but there aren’t many sinkerballers who can also be strikeout pitchers. I think the Sox would be crazy to trade him and have to think of him as a starter until he proves he can’t handle it. That’s especially true given that he’s pitching in Fenway Park, which will take some home runs away from lefties, particularly on the down and in pitch.
Gerry I think it’s wishful thinking to belive that we could get Laird or Shoppach without giving up a pitcher or Lowrie. Laird maybe, but while he’s a proven commodity he’s provenly slightly above average, that’s not building for the future that’s treading water. Shoppach is a better option, but there’s no scenario in which I could see Cleveland not wanting a pitcher or Lowrie. They’re really in no rush to trade him since Martinez can play 1st and while they have great catching depth in the minors it’s about a year away.
GO RAYS!!!!!!
Well, Bob, you may be right, but let’s see if Theo can work some magic over the next couple of weeks.
But isn’t it crazy that by trading a prospect who could become a great pitcher, we would necessarily have to pay a fortune to a FA to replace him.
And of the FA’s, Burnett, Sheets and Penny are fragile, Lowe wants $15M per until he is 40, and CC will break the bank for years. Makes no sense to me at all.
I would rather, I think, with or without Teix, have a solid catcher like Tek or Gerald Laird and wait a year for Kottaras/Brown/Wagner/Expo to develop than pay the huge price of giving up Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson or Lowrie, who we will need.
I would also like to see Masterson start until he proves that he can’t hack it. And I’m totally against trading Clay or Masterson for a catcher, Bowden to a lesser extent. My honest preference is for a veteran catcher, but not Laird – Benjie Molina. Great defense, and for a Molina, a pretty potent bat. Would probably knock a few over the Monster just like old Chicken Parm. Molina for a season or two, then see where the youngsters are at. Otherwise, every other team with an extra catcher to trade looks at the Sox roster and salivates because of the young talent, and they all will drive hard bargains. Thanks but no thanks.
I think Masterson stays in the pen at least for this season, if not beyond. He needs a third pitch, especially to get lefties out more consistently. He is essentially a fastball/sinker pitcher. You have to have that 3rd pitch to be an effective starter. He did well in his starts last year because he was still unknown. Right now, those 2 pitches translate better to the bullpen where he is only going through a lineup once.
Masterson needs to be a starter. He has the talent to be a closer and guys like that don’t stick around in free agency if a team already has a closer, like the red sox do. I’m looking toward the future. Masterson’s under the red sox control for the next 5 years i believe with his minor league contract and arbitration. After that, if he’s in the bullpen and fulfilled his potential, another team is GOING to pick him up to a huge deal to be their closer and I won’t be satisfied if we only get 6 years out of a second round draft pick. In my opinion that’s poor handling of any player.
Masterson needs to be a starter. He has the talent to be a closer and guys like that don’t stick around in free agency if a team already has a closer, like the red sox do. I’m looking toward the future. Masterson’s under the red sox control for the next 5 years i believe with his minor league contract and arbitration. After that, if he’s in the bullpen and fulfilled his potential, another team is GOING to pick him up to a huge deal to be their closer and I won’t be satisfied if we only get 6 years out of a second round draft pick. In my opinion that’s poor handling of any player.
While Masterson may or may not fit as a starter, I don’t think that we should make decisions such as that based on free agency years down the road. I agree that he should have a chance to try starting, but if the organization decides he would be better off in the bullpen, then that is where he should go. He could be a great help there, and we can cross the free agent bridge when we come to it.
With their own young pitching prospects, free agents, and trade possibilities, I wouldn’t have wasted a starting slot on Wakefield. The name of the game is ALWAYS pitching, and I don’t feel that Wake is IT. How about Becks, Matso, Lester, Burnett and Lowe. Couple that with their pen additions and that’s the “ballgame”. They wouldn’t even need Tex’s bat. And I’m not real thrilled with paying $25 mil a year for a .300/30/120 man. Isn’t that what Youk gave them this year for little more than chump change?
I really don’t know why so many are pushing this Masterson thing so hard. I really think he’s shown a lot of vulnerability. While Theo is showing patience with Buchholz, as it paid off well with Lester, I believe he has his feeling about whether any of this young talent is going to shake out. While he’s let young talent leak out of that clubhouse to go on to play well in others, i.e. Carlos Pena, David Murphy, Kelly Shoppach (who apparently we need back). Bowden and Buchholz aren’t untouchable. We have the likes of Daniel Bard in waiting and its not like Theo is suddenly going to forget how to draft and groom pitchers.
Theo will ultimately have to decide what’s best for the franchise. Having a stronger catcher in waiting? Or having a plethora or potential starting pitchers? If I’m making the decision, I’d say goodbye Michael Bowden, and get Salty fitted for a jersey!
David seems to have a pretty decent perspective on this. I think he stays in the ‘Pen.