The big story yesterday during the winter meetings was CC Sabathia’s acceptance of the New York Yankees’ offer to become their ace pitcher.
Sabathia will receive a seven-year commitment at a total value of roughly $161 million, although a sizable chunk will go to charity and deferred payments. Regardless, it is the most lucrative contract a pitcher has signed in the history of major league baseball, a contract that will eventually be dwarfed by one of the young pitchers in the game today (my money is on Tim Lincecum).
It also includes an opt-out clause, but we’ll get to that later. Quick tease, though: I fully expect Sabathia to exercise it.
First, let’s get to the impact this has on the arms race in the AL East.
NEW YORK YANKEES
By itself, it doesn’t do anything except take the Yankees from an 89-win team to a 91-win team in my opinion. Of course, this is a pretty significant swing and would have put the Yankees in the thick of the wild card race last year.
I see the Sabathia acquisition not as an improvement per se, but rather as an ability to stay the course. Sabathia went 17-10 last year. Mike Mussina went 20-9. Of course, it’s silly to evaluate a pitcher based solely on wins and losses, but the two are closer than you might think when it comes to the number of wins on the field.
This gives the Yankees a rotation of Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, (health risk, as we all know) Phillip Hughes and … Ian Kennedy? It won’t end up as Kennedy once the Yankees get their second pitcher, of course, whether that’s Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett. But whoever their second pitcher is, it’s going to replace the 2007 Andy Pettitte, so that ranges from an improvement of 0-2 wins.
Offensively, the Yankees at the moment are taking a step back. They’ve lost Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. They’re going to have to hope Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui rebound. They also are banking on Xavier Nady’s 2008 being the real deal, not his career line suggesting he is an average platoon-starter. Nick Swisher can be thought of as a poor man’s Jason Giambi. They also lack a full-time centerfielder, unless they think Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera can handle the job.
Long story short, I look at the projected 2009 Yankees team, including Sabathia and whatever their second pitcher is, and I’m not particularly intimidated. They will still be a good team (like they were last year) and should get about 92 wins, but unless they add a serious thumper to this lineup, they may be burned relying on their injured, aging stars much like they relied on their unproven, young starting pitchers in 2008.
BOSTON RED SOX
That said, this signing does have ripple effects across the AL East. For one, the Boston Red Sox now have to be especially motivated to continue to upgrade, whether that’s by signing Mark Teixeira or making an aggressive play for an offensive catcher. If they don’t upgrade, they are still capable of winning the division, but it will be tight. They’ll also probably place additional emphasis on the fourth outfielder having a history of hitting left-handed pitchers well in case J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury or David Ortiz struggles in that capacity in 2009.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Toronto Blue Jays may also consider using 2009 as a restocking phase and shoot for 2010, when their young starters return from injury and they have more flexibility. I would not be surprised to see the Jays quietly concede 2009 right now and trade off Lyle Overbay, B.J. Ryan and other players as the season progresses. For PR purposes, they can’t admit to it or start trading anyone now, but the results on the field will quickly become clear to them.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Tampa Bay Rays are perhaps least affected by this, as they can’t afford to get into a pissing match with the Yankees or Sox. Their young core is stupendous enough and their young pitching is deep enough to get the offense that they need that this Sabathia acquisition doesn’t change much except perhaps trying to make sure they have strength from the left side of the plate.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The Baltimore Orioles are in a tough position. They have a potent offense (that they’re trying to add Mark Teixeira to) but a poor pitching staff. They’re caught in the middle between rebuilding and competing because they can absolutely make some noise if some cards fall their way. This Sabathia acquisition may spur them to make more aggressive offers to current free agents (Teixeira? Burnett?) to keep up with the big dogs.
CC SABATHIA’S OPT-OUT CLAUSE
Now, let’s look at something. Sabathia is slated to receive $69 million over the first three years in a $161 million, seven-year deal. (This is a deal paying an average annual value of $23 million). Given that he is starting his age-28 season and Burnett and Lowe are commanding significant dollars, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to theorize that he could do better than a four-year deal of $92 million, which is what he would get over the last four years of the Yankees’ deal.
In three years, there will be a few changes in the baseball landscape that could impact things considerably. For one, the economy (knock on wood) should be improving, if not out of the gutter, and baseball teams will feel freer to spend. Two, as inflation naturally occurs, the average annual value, while remaining constant, actually declines. On the market, inflation would be adjusted for, so Sabathia would likely receive a raise.
Lastly, the San Francisco Giants will have a year left on Barry Zito’s obscene contract. The Los Angeles Dodgers will be out from under Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt and Casey Blake. Since it’s well known that Sabathia wants to pitch on the West Coast and in the NL to hit, (doesn’t hurt that the NL provides weaker competition) what is to stop him from collecting his $69 million from the Yankees then heading to a big West Coast market and at the very worst, maintaining status quo on his contract?
I don’t think there’s anything to stop him, and that’s why I think that Sabathia is guaranteed to opt out. Even if he ends up re-signing with the Yankees, it will be for more money, much like how Alex Rodriguez played it a year ago. The only way Sabathia doesn’t opt out is if his body and pitching arm breaks down, and if it does, that’s good news for the AL East. Either way, Sabathia and the rest of the AL East profit three years down the road.
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Chet, I definitely disagree with your statement that the Yankees are playing with money they dont have. First, lets look at the fact that they’re still shedding payroll. They’re still about 40 million below what they were last season. Plus, you forget to overlook the fact that the Yankees are also moving into a new stadium which will no doubtedly produce even more money. To say that they’re playing with money they dont have is a little far fetched…just my opinion. Plus, if you were Cashman, and you had about 80 million coming off the books, where would you spend the money. You need to fill a few areas. Would you spend money on 2 injury prone pitchers (Burnett and Sheets) or 1 work horse and then 1 or the Burnett, Sheets, Pettite trio. I agree that CC’s workload in the past few years is cause for concern, but who should they have spent the money on instead. This is a business, and the Yankees are reinvesting it to put a competitive team back on the field. I really don’t see anything wrong with that. It should be a really exciting year in the American League east…assuming you’re a Yankee, Red Sox or Rays fan. If you support, the Jays or Orioles…stay strong
Wang is replacing the Wang that didn’t play much, then. What you’re really looking at, is replacing starts. Because Wang didn’t make those twenty starts, Rasner did. Ponson made 15, Pavano, etc. There, obviously, are 162 starts to go around in a season. If it were divided evenly between five starters, that would mean 33 starts for the top two guys, and 32 for the rest of the five man rotation.
Obviously, things happen, and no team ever have a rotation that ends up like that. The healthy ace, or top two pitchers frequently make 34-35 starts because of days off allowing pitchers to be skipped, and a sixth pitcher is sometimes needed when doubleheaders mess things up. That said, you can reasonably expect Sabathia and Wang to make 32 starts. If they bring Pettitte back, he is pretty durable, and can be counted on for 32 starts, as well. Burnette, obviously has a history of missing games, but you can probably pencil him in for 25 starts. Chamberlain will have his innings limit, as well as the possibility of missing time to injury, so you can probably bring him in around 20 starts.
That is 141 starts out of this rotation. Of course, things will not go exactly to plan. Any number of these pitchers could get seriously injured and miss a lot of time. Wang missed a lot of time this season due to a freak injury while running the bases. However, the rotation also has the potential to start more games. Sabathia and Wang could be completely healthy, and each start 34 games, a mark that Sabathia has reached in two consecutive years. Pettitte, too is capable of pitching 34 games, as he did last season, while making 33 starts this season. Burnett has the ability to pitch more than 25 times. He made 34 starts this season. Lastly Chamberlain could start more games than 20. At six innings per start (which is what he averaged last season beginning with his third start, up until the game before his injury), twenty starts would only take him 120 innings. Many predict the innings limit to be around 150, so if healthy, he could make 25 starts. Under these perfect conditions, the Yankees would get 159 starts out of its starting rotation.
Obviously, I don’t expect this, which is why I put the number at a more fair, middle ground, of 141 starts. This seems to be a decent over/under. This leaves 19 starts to be filled in by Aceves, Hughes, Kennedy, and whoever else proves to be worthy. Season, the Yankees had 60 starts from pitchers who had ERAs of 5.40 or higher. These included starts from Rasner, 5.4, Ponson, 5.85, Pavano, 5.77, Hughes, 6.62, Kennedy, 8.17, and Igawa, 13.50.
By all reason, Hughes and Kennedy should perform far better than they did in 2008, especially Hughes. That, in addition to a more reliable rotation, means the Yankees will throw bad starts at a far less regular clip.
If you want to say that Mussina’s starts are being replaced by Sabathia, that’s fine. Pettitte will be replicating himself, if not getting better. The combination of Wang, Burnett, Chamberlain, and Hughes will be replacing the combination of Wang(1/2), Chamberlain(1/2), Rasner, Ponson, Pavano, Hughes (poor quality), Kennedy, and Igawa. Remember that number. 60 starts from pitchers with ERA of 5.4 or higher.