The big story yesterday during the winter meetings was CC Sabathia’s acceptance of the New York Yankees’ offer to become their ace pitcher.
Sabathia will receive a seven-year commitment at a total value of roughly $161 million, although a sizable chunk will go to charity and deferred payments. Regardless, it is the most lucrative contract a pitcher has signed in the history of major league baseball, a contract that will eventually be dwarfed by one of the young pitchers in the game today (my money is on Tim Lincecum).
It also includes an opt-out clause, but we’ll get to that later. Quick tease, though: I fully expect Sabathia to exercise it.
First, let’s get to the impact this has on the arms race in the AL East.
NEW YORK YANKEES
By itself, it doesn’t do anything except take the Yankees from an 89-win team to a 91-win team in my opinion. Of course, this is a pretty significant swing and would have put the Yankees in the thick of the wild card race last year.
I see the Sabathia acquisition not as an improvement per se, but rather as an ability to stay the course. Sabathia went 17-10 last year. Mike Mussina went 20-9. Of course, it’s silly to evaluate a pitcher based solely on wins and losses, but the two are closer than you might think when it comes to the number of wins on the field.
This gives the Yankees a rotation of Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, (health risk, as we all know) Phillip Hughes and … Ian Kennedy? It won’t end up as Kennedy once the Yankees get their second pitcher, of course, whether that’s Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett. But whoever their second pitcher is, it’s going to replace the 2007 Andy Pettitte, so that ranges from an improvement of 0-2 wins.
Offensively, the Yankees at the moment are taking a step back. They’ve lost Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. They’re going to have to hope Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui rebound. They also are banking on Xavier Nady’s 2008 being the real deal, not his career line suggesting he is an average platoon-starter. Nick Swisher can be thought of as a poor man’s Jason Giambi. They also lack a full-time centerfielder, unless they think Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera can handle the job.
Long story short, I look at the projected 2009 Yankees team, including Sabathia and whatever their second pitcher is, and I’m not particularly intimidated. They will still be a good team (like they were last year) and should get about 92 wins, but unless they add a serious thumper to this lineup, they may be burned relying on their injured, aging stars much like they relied on their unproven, young starting pitchers in 2008.
BOSTON RED SOX
That said, this signing does have ripple effects across the AL East. For one, the Boston Red Sox now have to be especially motivated to continue to upgrade, whether that’s by signing Mark Teixeira or making an aggressive play for an offensive catcher. If they don’t upgrade, they are still capable of winning the division, but it will be tight. They’ll also probably place additional emphasis on the fourth outfielder having a history of hitting left-handed pitchers well in case J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury or David Ortiz struggles in that capacity in 2009.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Toronto Blue Jays may also consider using 2009 as a restocking phase and shoot for 2010, when their young starters return from injury and they have more flexibility. I would not be surprised to see the Jays quietly concede 2009 right now and trade off Lyle Overbay, B.J. Ryan and other players as the season progresses. For PR purposes, they can’t admit to it or start trading anyone now, but the results on the field will quickly become clear to them.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Tampa Bay Rays are perhaps least affected by this, as they can’t afford to get into a pissing match with the Yankees or Sox. Their young core is stupendous enough and their young pitching is deep enough to get the offense that they need that this Sabathia acquisition doesn’t change much except perhaps trying to make sure they have strength from the left side of the plate.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The Baltimore Orioles are in a tough position. They have a potent offense (that they’re trying to add Mark Teixeira to) but a poor pitching staff. They’re caught in the middle between rebuilding and competing because they can absolutely make some noise if some cards fall their way. This Sabathia acquisition may spur them to make more aggressive offers to current free agents (Teixeira? Burnett?) to keep up with the big dogs.
CC SABATHIA’S OPT-OUT CLAUSE
Now, let’s look at something. Sabathia is slated to receive $69 million over the first three years in a $161 million, seven-year deal. (This is a deal paying an average annual value of $23 million). Given that he is starting his age-28 season and Burnett and Lowe are commanding significant dollars, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to theorize that he could do better than a four-year deal of $92 million, which is what he would get over the last four years of the Yankees’ deal.
In three years, there will be a few changes in the baseball landscape that could impact things considerably. For one, the economy (knock on wood) should be improving, if not out of the gutter, and baseball teams will feel freer to spend. Two, as inflation naturally occurs, the average annual value, while remaining constant, actually declines. On the market, inflation would be adjusted for, so Sabathia would likely receive a raise.
Lastly, the San Francisco Giants will have a year left on Barry Zito’s obscene contract. The Los Angeles Dodgers will be out from under Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt and Casey Blake. Since it’s well known that Sabathia wants to pitch on the West Coast and in the NL to hit, (doesn’t hurt that the NL provides weaker competition) what is to stop him from collecting his $69 million from the Yankees then heading to a big West Coast market and at the very worst, maintaining status quo on his contract?
I don’t think there’s anything to stop him, and that’s why I think that Sabathia is guaranteed to opt out. Even if he ends up re-signing with the Yankees, it will be for more money, much like how Alex Rodriguez played it a year ago. The only way Sabathia doesn’t opt out is if his body and pitching arm breaks down, and if it does, that’s good news for the AL East. Either way, Sabathia and the rest of the AL East profit three years down the road.
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Pinstripes are supposed to have a slimming effect on one’s appearance. CC needs the help.
That’s just sour grapes on my part. I wanted us to sign him, although it doesn’t seem to be our strategy to add a high-end starter. Oh well. I’d wish Sabbathia luck with his new job, but I’m not that charitable a person.
I actually think the Yankees (if they land Lowe, Burnett, or Sheets…or two of the three) are going to be much improved next season. Look, they were an outright disappointment last year and still won 89 games.
Despite the record, Sabathia is easily two wins more valuable than Mussina alone next year. If you look at WPA from 2008, Sabathia was 4.74 vs. Mussina’s 2.20.
Once you layer in a healthy Wang, a “full time starter” Joba Chamberlain, and god forbid two of Lowe, Burnett, and Sheets. That is a 95 plus win team with the Washington Nationals offense (ok…hyperbole…but you get the picture).
On the opt out….I tend to agree with you. I think he’ll exercise it if he’s not happy in NY or even if he’s ambivalent to NYC. He’ll have the opportunity to go to the NL on the West Coast for the same, if not more money (if he performs over the next three seasons). If he doesn’t, he’ll stick with the big money due to him. Win-Win for C-C.
I want to preface all this by asking the board to refrain from some of the personal attacks and rampant fanaticism that have invaded many recent Yankee/Red Sox threads. Let’s keep this civil guys. At least until the teams get on the field again ;)
Players not named Derek Jeter tend to get sick of NY after a couple of years anyway, that’s why I agree that he’ll probably opt out. There’s just too much pressure to meet unrealistic expectations (Boston is somewhat similar). Sabbathia seems to be a pretty laid back guy (I personally think he’d be fun to hang out with) who seemed lukewarm to pitching for the Yankees in the first place, but how can you turn down that money. Still NY can wear on someone as private as CC, look what it did to Randy Johnson. From personal experience I’ve observed that being from the West Coast and living in NY is a very tough experience, the speed of life and the outlook of the average person are very different. I have a lot of family in California and those who moved to NY for work-related purposes hate it. Most of them run back to LA or San Francisco as quickly as they can.
Of course there are also people who hate LA and move to NY and love it, I just don’t know that many personally.
Word is the Yankees are front-runners for Burnett now. I really wanted to see him go to the Braves so they could start being relevant again, so I could go see meaningful baseball games again.
Evan,
Another factor to consider. If Sabathia does opt out, as you mentioned, its because he’s likely to have succedeed in New York.
If the Yanks don’t resign him at that point, they just got a top 5 pitcher in all of the majors on a three-year deal.They essentially have a short term deal with CC during his prime years (28-31) and would not have to pay for his decline.
I mean, who wouldn’t make a 3/69 deal with CC? This can be good for New York as well. It’s only bad if he gets hurt during that first stint, because then his contract fully vests and you are on the hook for it.
Excellent point, Eric. They may actually make out in the long run if he opts out.
I hate to say it, but I think New York has make a great move. CC was my favorite FA and this signing makes the Yankees considerably better. I hope Theo trade for a good catcher, because the hunt for October is gonna be extra-hard next year. I’m afraid we are not gonna be competitive in the AL East if Theo don’t fix the holes.
Wow, all I think is that CC will be hard pressed to match Moose’s win total from last year. And yes, Boston WILL go all out and sign Teixeira. I see the future…he’s wearing a Red Sox uniform.
Good observation, Bob. Most super talented people I know that were recruited to NYC from California just couldn’t put up with the hard-edged attitudes and lasted only a few years and returned to Cali to enjoy the good things of life other than things commercial. I only know of one person who persevered. Great place to visit, though, if you like music, theater, art . . . and food, which will appeal to CC, no joking. The food is fantastic.
Theo must know, from Cashman’s aggressive approach and the Rays’ savvy shopping, that to win he MUST sign a top pitcher (not an innings eater) for #4, that he MUST get a top catcher with a good arm, that he MUST build a bench around power and speed no matter the cost, that he MUST keep the kids, and that he really should sign Teix.
I disagree, Evan. Wang replaces Mussina’s wins (and gives more innings, which has a ripple effect), the typical estimates I’ve heard re: extra wins CC provides is six, not two. A typical Swisher year is better than a typical Giambi year at this point, especially when you factor in defense. A Cano bounceback is very likely, considering his age, and Matsui is coming back.
Even if you ignore all the returning offensive firepower, Evan, and just take the rotation, can you seriously think that a rotation of CC, Burnett, Wang, Joba, and either Pettitte, Sheets, or Hughes is only two wins better than a rotation of Mussina, Pettitte, Ponson, Rasner, and Pavano?
Moose = Wang
Pettitte = Pettitte
CC + 6-12 over Ponson
Burnett + 5-10 over Rasner
Joba + ? over Pavano
Think about it. Or don’t. I love the overconfidence.
The Yankees got the best pitcher on a 3 yr deal. How is that a bad thing?
Why does Boston want Tex? Considering there best prospect is a 1b and there best player is a DH.
You’re forgetting that CC Sabthia will have a healthy cast including Posada, Matsui, AROD, and Wang to name a few.. Overall, they’re going to be MUCH better… for a team to lose that many players during the year will hurt any team…and the Yankees still won 89 games.. the possibility of now adding Burnett and Sheet/Petite for next year and put Joba in the pen with Damaso Marte and Rivera..watch out… and dont be surprised if the Yankees pick up Manny for two years..
go
Ummmmmm, anyone thinking on how many bull pen innings CC will eat up for the Yanks … All I see here is W/L thinking… The guy is a Horse…1-2 Games of rest for the pen every week (for a 3 year deal)..
The Sox have done nothing and now there looking for a catcher ? AJ will sign just to stick it to the Jays (and WIN RINGS) … Matsui will be fine with all the rest he got — as will Posada…
As sick as it sounds — Manny might just be a Yankee (i just threw up in my mouth) but WOW —-I like the Idea of Manny at the plate – game on the line – in BOSTON late september….
Seriously Yanks won 89 games last year with a ton of injuries and you think with a rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Sheets/Pettett, and Joba are only going to win 2 more games. If they sign Sheets over Andy that is a rotation of all #1 or #2 pitchers by far the best in baseball. It also takes the pressure off the offense which will help those who were injured and had off years last year get back to where they usually are.
It’s been brought up, and it’s an excellent point that often gets over-looked, in that Wang is returning. That in itself is like signing another big name pitcher, and he will take up for the slack of losing Mussina. So, in my opinion, the Yankees have added a big name pitcher to the front of their rotation, and replace Mussina with Wang. That’s definitely better than the front of last years rotation. But the biggest thing is that they aren’t done yet. They still plan on signing at least one more of the big 3 (Burnett, Lowe, Sheets), and maybe two if Pettite doesn’t return. When you factor that into the equation, you end up with the possibility of Pettite moving from the front of the rotation to the number 5 spot. That, to me, says that this rotation is much, much better than last years. When you consider that Wang or Burnett/Lowe/Sheets is going against everyone elses number 3, and Chamberlain against their number 4, that’s a huge advantage for the Yankees.
Mike (comment #12) -
Yankees fans seem to use this argument a lot, but it’s not true. A-Rod played 138 games, and Matsui’s replacement (Nady) had an identical OPS. The only meaningful injuries were Posada (about 80 games lost due to injury) and Wang (half a season). That’s a very healthy team, particularly given their average age.
Consider the Red Sox. They lost 50 games each from Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew, suffered the Manny meltdown, lost Beckett for a month and Schilling for the season, but they still won more games than the Yankees.
Don’t count on “better health” helping to close the gap.
Evan, I totally agree on the Blue Jays packing it in this year. They have to outplay the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays — all in their own division — just to gain a wild card birth. It doesn’t look too promising. I think they should look at moving Halladay.
On the opt-out, CC is sitting pretty as well as in the case of injury. What people may be overlooking is the Pavano/Wright/Brown fiasco that is the Yankees’ pitching past.
With $161 million tied up in CC (say 23M/per) and whatever AJ makes (16?) the Yankees have around $40 million in TWO pitchers — one which has been innings-challenged (Burnett) and regularly struggles to hit the 150 inning mark. The other (Sabathia) has been grossly overworked over the past two seasons, tossing a monstrous 250 innings for the Tribe in 2007 and logging nearly as many as the Brewers rode him on numerous 3-day rest outings down the stretch last year. The dollars in this scenario far out-distance the trifecta from previous Yankee lore, but the shear length of contract is stupendous. Burnett and Sabathia could easily BOTH break down early in these deals and leave the Yankees severely hamstrung, sitting on millions while two-thirds of their staff isn’t producing squat.
It’s the baseball equivalent of the Wall Street bailout situation, where an organization makes insane and risky moves in a grab for money, power and success, with every likely outcome looking nothing but bleak. What is the most pathetic illustration of this? The Yankees are already so over-extended, it was reported that they are looking into charging media in the press box for wireless internet access.
They’re the Yankees… they have all the money in the world, right? Well, they’re playing with fire with money they apparently don’t have.
Trying to add or subtract wins based on a new rotation is pretty futile. How do you measure Mussina’s terrific turnaround with Pettitte’s disappointing season, Joba’s part-time display, and Wang’s crushing injury?
I am confident now that the Yanks will stop at nothing to get another starter. My hope is that it’s Sheets and Pettitte. Sheets is the youngest of the bunch and I think more upside, and with Pettitte you sort of know what you’ll get.
Unfortunately, you have to hand it to Boston and the position players they have produced. It’s true Lester and Papelbon will be great for years, but what sets them apart is Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and perhaps Lowrie. They all appear to be or already are solid contributors and even stars in the league, while the Yanks boast no new positional talent of any note. Cano is the best example, and I hope he uses last season’s disappointment to springboard into the early stages of his prime.
I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers from, Jost. Posada participated in 50 games last year versus 143 the year before so that’s a difference of 93, not 80. Not only that, he only played 30 games behind the disc because he was injured the entire season. Add to that, the fact that he was a shell of his former self, due to the injury, and you’re basically adding Posada for the entire season.
Chet, your statement that, “It’s the baseball equivalent of the Wall Street bailout situation, where an organization makes insane and risky moves in a grab for money, power and success, with every likely outcome looking nothing but bleak” seems based in emotion, not rationality.
First of all, the metaphor doesn’t fit at all. Who is being bailed out? The players? The players are being rewarded for successful seasons, they’re not being bailed out.
Secondly, “every likely outcome” is not bleak. Clearly, if you talk to any rational baseball pundit, the likely outcome of the CC deal is that he’ll pitch well for the Yankees and remain healthy. You can never tell for sure with any pitcher, but CC’s track record is obviously that of a horse with a rubber arm. He is as likely as or more likely than any other pitcher in baseball, to be healthy and pitch well over the next few years.
I’m really not sure what you’re talking about. I think you may be just upset and emotional.
If you want to assume that a 37-year old catcher will play 143 games, prepare to be disappointed.
And you don’t think you might be emotional either?
IN my experience with Red Sox/Yankee opinions, the real truth lies in the middle of a Sox fan’s opinion and a Yankee fan’s opinion.
True, as I said, there’s always a risk with any pitcher, but to say that “every likely outcome” is bleak seems extreme, no? I don’t think I’m being emotional in saying that, I think I’m taking the reasonable angle (for a change :-)
Jost, I think that’s a fair criticism. You certainly can’t rely on that from Jorge. But if he gives you a normal age-related dropoff from 2007, it’s still a huge boost to the lineup – huge. As I said, anything’s possible, but before his injury, Jorge was showing no signs of age. As long as he comes back fully recovered from his surgery, he should be a major contributor.
The problem with this 92 win projection is the reliance on last year’s team as a guide. The Yankees won 89 games last season. This is obvious. They have let Abreu and Giambi walk, so it looks like their offense will regress when that’s all you look at. It shouldn’t be all you look at. They lost Mussina, and their next pitcher signing will only we replacing Pettitte, so you won’t have a big upgrade there. Sabathia replaces Mussina, and ? replaces Pettitte. You are also assuming that Hughes will be the fifth starter, even though indications are that the Yankees are trying to bring in Burnette AND Pettitte. So let’s look at what the Yankees really are doing going into next season.
Sabathia replaces Mussina, and they get a little bit better. Granted, not a whole lot better than Mussina’s last year, but at least a little better, most likely. Pettitte will be replaced by either himself, or Burnette, as you said, and this could be an improvement of anywhere from 0-5 wins in actuality. Let’s call it two, though. These are the pitching concerns that you covered. I find it rather amazing though, that when discussing the Yankees’ pitching, between last season and this next season, you fail to mention the 15 starts the Yankees got from Ponson, or the 20 starts they got from Rasner, or the 7 starts they got from Pavano, while Wang and Chamberlain made a combined 27 starts. Now, you can argue that Chamberlain is injury prone, if you like, but it is at least important to take into account the circumstances in which Chamberlain got injured. He sprained his shoulder after converting from reliever to starter in the middle of the season. Not exactly the orthodox approach. So while Chamberlain may be an injury risk, it’s not quite fair to point to that as strong evidence. Second, it can not be said that Wang is injury prone, as a foot injury while running the bases isn’t likely to occur again. So, let’s look at what the Yankees have. Sabathia improving on Mussina, Wang improving on Wang/Ponson, Chamberlain improving on Chamberlain/Rasner, and Pettitte/Burnette improving Pettitte, along with whatever happens with the fifth spot. Even if the Yankees throw Hughes out there, it’s unlikely he does as bad as he did last season. That’s actually massive improvement in the Rotation, and I just can’t see the argument against that.
Next, we would have to look at the position players. The Yankees are losing two of their more productive players, in Abreu and Giambi. This will hurt. However, they will be replaced by somewhat lesser versions of themselves. Swisher, other than last year, is actually very similar to what Giambi did last year, so there is potential for no drop off there. However, for the sake of argument, we’ll assume that there will be a drop off. Nady had a career year last season, so it’s unlikely that he will repeat his production. He has, however, put up at least above league average numbers for several years running, so there is no reason to expect that to change. Abreu put up an OPS+ of 120 this season, so his offensive output is undeniable. Nady had an OPS+ of 128 this season, and 107 last season. Let’s say he regresses most of the way, down to 110. That is a fair drop from Abreu this season. However, in looking at these two losses, we are only taking into account their offense. It’s needless to say that Swisher is a far better defensive firstbaseman than Giambi, but how much is important. In 2006 Swisher played most of his games at first base, and he posted a FRAR of 21. Last season, Giambi was the Yankees firstbaseman for the majority of the season, and he posted a FRAR of -2. So that is a massive difference. Even in last year’s dismal season, Swisher posted a WARP of 3.5, to Giambi’s 4.5. If Swisher rebounds at all back toward his previous two seasons’ levels of production, 7.6 WARP in 2006, and 7.0 WARP in 2007, then the Yankees will come out well ahead in this switch. In the case of Abreu and Nady, the difference is not so large. Abreu had a FRAR of 2 in 2008, as opposed to Nady’s 19. The point being, that while there will likely be an offensive dropoff with these two changes, the defensive upgrades should erase a lot of the damage.
For the rest of the roster. Aside from Johhny Damon, the Yankees had subpar seasons from all of their hitters, across the board, most notably, Robinson Cano. He had a terrible first two months of the season, and then spent the rest of it trying to make up for it. He had an attittude adjustment following a benching in September, and is working on a swing adjustment this offseason. In 2006 and 2007, he posted OPS+ of 126, and 120, respectively, before falling off the map in 2008. MVP Pedroia posted an OPS+ of 122 for reference. If you want to believe that Cano just lost his talent, then that’s a risk you can take. Personally, I think he rebounds.
Jeter also had a down year. from 2005 to 2007, he posted OPS+ of 125, 132, and 121, then dropped to 102 in 2008. Good chance for a rebound there as well.
The Posada and Matsui situations can only stay the same or get better, as they barely played at all in 2008. Matsui had surgery to correct a problem in his knee, and Posada in his shoulder. Both say that they are ahead of schedule, so we will have to wait and see. One thing is for certain, though, they cann’t be worse.
Johhny Damon had an excellent season last year, so it would be fair to expect him regress at least a little. At the same time, Rodriguez had a slightly down year, and it is fair to expect him to improve.
Overall, the Yankees finished with 89 wins last season, six games behind the Red Sox, in a season in which everything went wrong, and nobody had a career year. Going into this next season, they have players that almost universally can be expected to do better, and certainly no worse, in addition to seriously upgrading their pitching. It may happen that the Yankees end up missing the playoffs again due to any number of problems, but it’s hard to argue that they haven’t improved a great deal on paper.
OK. First of all the NYY mission this offseason was to sign 3 starting pitchers, one of whom was CC Sabathia. The other 2 were going to come from the FA market, either pettie, lowe or burnett. SO the Yankees rotation would not be CC, Wang, Joba, Hughes, Kennedy. It would be CC, Wang, Joba, and probably burnett. Chances are if they sign burnett they won’t pursue lowe, but they will pursue pettite. Hughes will be the long reliever and they will move kennedy to the minors. This means they will have 5 starting pitchers, not 4 like you said. they will easily win more than 89 games. You overlooked the fact that WAng got injured but before his injury he was 8-2, AND Joba got injured. Who replaced them, a 0-4 kennedy and an 8-5 ponson. Not great replacements. SO, from that wang would have won 20 games and joba probably about 7. so that is plus about 10 wins. CC will help us get about 4 wins back not 2. so that is 12 more wins. Burnett pitched in a tough division and still went 18-10. So all those games he lost to the yankees arent going to be loses they will be wins. So i wold say another 4. 16 more wins than last year. to address the offense, the yankees will probably will make an offer to Tex, or try and get manny at a discounted price. Matsui was doing great before he got injured so he will be good and posada was injured too. Chances are those two will not be as good, but they will still contribute. If the yanks add Tex or manny i would give them another win or two. plus 18 wins. Chances are the yankees will win around 103-107 games, and win the divison.
Tom — I believe the phrase was “the Wall Street bailout SITUATION”, not speaking to the bailout portion, but to the stupidity and greed that lead up to it. And for what it’s worth, you’re response sounded much more emotion-generated than my post. Maybe we can take a poll…
I don’t know if that was a joke or not, Sean, but it would be absurd to declare a 104 win season for the Yankees.
Oh, and we have certainly never heard that CC’s bigness would ever lead to a physical breakdown, not to mention his ridiculous workload over the last two years that HAS been very taxing as he threw many innings at the end of the year at critical times. Your response didn’t address Burnett. He certainly has no health issues . . .
there, that was a little emotional.
I used to be nervous about the weight issue, myself, Chet, but the recent data re: pitcher injuries indicates that the larger the pitcher, the MORE successful and longer career he’s likely to have. And your issue re: CC’s workload is specious as well. As many pundits have mentioned lately, the best indication of a pitcher’s ability to throw future healthy innings is his PAST ability to throw healthy innings. CC’s track record of being able to handle a large number of innings for several consecutive years and retain velocity and stuff, if anything, makes him the MOST reliable bet in the entire major leagues to be able to throw 200+ innings each year for the next few. Of course, you just never know with these guys.
Re: Burnett, Al Leiter said that he spoke to Burnett who stated that he learned to throw without max effort this year, and that is why he was able to go 200+. Take that for what it’s worth, but there were certainly many other organizations including the Red Sox and Braves who were very interested in him. If you guys got him, you’d be crowing a different story. I’ll take my chances, knowing that you may only get 160 innings per out of him, but there have been many similarly injury prone guys w/ great stuff who’ve figured out how to stay healthy later in their careers, like Jason Schmidt and Curt Schilling. I see a lot of parallels there, but yes, Burnett is pot luck to a certain extent.
By the way, “bigness”??? Really? Bigness? Is that a word?
sure is :)
Burnett is a Yankee. 5/82.5
Tom,
Just to counterpoint, I was dramatically against signing Burnett for anything longer than three years.
High risk/ high reward move. Personally, I like the guy, but I can certainly see the haters perspective. With a little luck, the Yanks should be very, very competitive with the Sox next year.
That’s rational, Evan, but it’s not where the market is. You have to take risks for the top guys. I don’t buy that the Yanks are being crazily fiscally irresponsible here when John Schuerholz is making the same, identical bid. You can’t tell me that John Schuerholz doesn’t know anything about pitchers. The Braves and A’s (and more recently the Red Sox) have been the two best organizations in baseball at identifying pitching talent and where to spend their pitching dollars. Year-after-year they dump guys just as they’re about to drop and pick up guys just as they’re about to breakout/ bounce back.
With that rotation, Tom, I think it is safer to say that without bad luck, the Yanks will be very competitive next year vs. both the Sox and the Rays. Let’s see what Theo does to counter. Lowe, Sheets, Penny, Teixeira, Shoppach, Salty, Baldellli? He’d better do it all, or we will be cheering on the cardiac kids again.
Signing CC was an excellent move for the Yankees, and now they have Burnett too. I hope we can sign Sheets because we need a good starter, if we still want to have a competitive rotation.
And we need to take the opportunity to get a good catcher. Guys with the potential of Salty, Shoppach, Montero, are not goning to be available every year, like many people seems to think. If we fail to sign one of this guys NOW, we are losing the opportunity of getting someone special for the future. This is the moment to secure the catcher we need for the years to come, and to fix the hole we have in our lineup right now.
Theo, wake up and smell the coffee!
Important distinction, M.A.G. None of those guys is a free agent, so it’s more complicated than signing one of them. And I think that Theo is well aware of the need to find a better catcher. He just has to weigh the benefit of getting one versus what he will have to give up. All trades hurt at least a little.
I’ve wanted Ben Sheets for a long time. Two-year deal, vesting for a third.
Rory, I’m aware we need to trade for one of those guys (I made a mistake using the word “sign”). But, my point is we need to do it. If we lose this opportunity we are gonna regret it. For me, that’s another reason to sign Sheets: Not only because we have a hole in our rotation, but because he give us the flexibility to trade one of the pitching prospects.
And, in this case, Theo is playing too carefull (and too cheap) for my taste. If he don’t want to lose any prospect, then we simply don’t have any posibility of acquire a quality catcher. It takes quality to get quality. If Theo loses this oportunity, will be a big mistake.
So, as Sox guys, what’s Kelly Shoppach worth? Masterson? Buchholz? I’d ask for Clay if I’m Shapiro.
The Indians have other needs besides SP, like the Pen.
No question the Sox need to add depth for the Rotation. While most seem to think Teixeira is a lock to be in Boston, it could be said that its just as likely that Teixeira signs with the Angels who have made him the 8yr offer, and the Sox return healthy and take their chances. Sheets would be a great signing, and I think its possible they’d look to add someone like Penny, whom they could get on an incentive deal for a pitcher with injury concerns. They came to camp with what 7 SP last year? Still ended up needing depth.
The Sox are going to have to be very cautious in their due diligence in selecting a young catcher worthy of a young pitcher. I’m not sold on some of the names I’m seeing out there for young catchers. I’m somewhat aghast at Texas asking for Buccholz for Salty. I think Bowden for Salty. Let Clay and Justin compete in the spring for the 5th rotation spot, knowing that more than likely both will end up in the rotation at some point, due to the rigors of the season.
Chet,
I suspect Shapiro will ask for Buchholz (why wouldn’t he?) but there is no way Theo deals him. There’s a reason why he threw a no-hitter, and confidence and command issues derailed him last year, not his stuff. He is still an ace in waiting.
If the Sox really want Shoppach, they will have to cough up either Justin Masterson or Jed Lowrie. I can see them trying to snag both in a 2-for-1 deal, but unless I’m mistaken, I think the Sox would give up too much.
Masterson and Yamaico Navarro, perhaps?
There offense can go quiet a few ways , it’s hard to project at this point.
Cano and Swisher on papaer both look like guys that SHOULD bounce back very significantly back to their 07ish level. would it happen? or maybe at their respective age they might even have a new level in them? or maybe something truely went wrong with them?
Jorge Posada, while he’s not going to hit like 07 and unlikely to go significantly over 120 games catched, anything he is likely to do is still a mega upgrade over Jose Molina, however he might also get just as hurt as last year.
Who knows with pitching, anything can and usually will happen. sometimes teams get lucky years where everyone stay healthy, or vise virsa, or anything in between.
I think that the team is likely to hit a little better than last year due to the bounce backs and health reasoning. but by how much? and their bullpen is likely to regress somewhat, because it was very good last year.
it’s a pretty high variable team that can end up anywhere from .500 to 100 game winners.
I agree, Evan. Wayy too much. Impossible if Theo plans to start Masterson and, except for Furcal ($35M), there are no easy replacements for Lowrie.
I wonder if Firebrand would investigate the relative merits of Shoppach vs. Salty vs. TG vs. Montero, etc. Salty and TG have so little MLB experience, and seem very rough on defense (arm, E’s, passed balls, etc.). Kelly is coming off a knee procedure and has lots of K’s and he had a rough year picking off runners.
Even if Tek returns, Theo has to make a decision on signing one of these guys now, or bringing back Cash’s arm, and saving the kids (Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie) who each have important roles this year . . . or getting someone from within ready by 2010.
An intelligent comparison would be a good guide for the readers.
By the way, I don’t buy Wang replacing Mussina. He replaces Wang. Yeah, he got hurt, but to think all five starters will make every start and not get hurt is nuts.