Comments on: The CC Sabathia impact on the AL East

By: Rory

Rory — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 03:59:44 +0000

Wang is replacing the Wang that didn’t play much, then. What you’re really looking at, is replacing starts. Because Wang didn’t make those twenty starts, Rasner did. Ponson made 15, Pavano, etc. There, obviously, are 162 starts to go around in a season. If it were divided evenly between five starters, that would mean 33 starts for the top two guys, and 32 for the rest of the five man rotation.
Obviously, things happen, and no team ever have a rotation that ends up like that. The healthy ace, or top two pitchers frequently make 34-35 starts because of days off allowing pitchers to be skipped, and a sixth pitcher is sometimes needed when doubleheaders mess things up. That said, you can reasonably expect Sabathia and Wang to make 32 starts. If they bring Pettitte back, he is pretty durable, and can be counted on for 32 starts, as well. Burnette, obviously has a history of missing games, but you can probably pencil him in for 25 starts. Chamberlain will have his innings limit, as well as the possibility of missing time to injury, so you can probably bring him in around 20 starts.
That is 141 starts out of this rotation. Of course, things will not go exactly to plan. Any number of these pitchers could get seriously injured and miss a lot of time. Wang missed a lot of time this season due to a freak injury while running the bases. However, the rotation also has the potential to start more games. Sabathia and Wang could be completely healthy, and each start 34 games, a mark that Sabathia has reached in two consecutive years. Pettitte, too is capable of pitching 34 games, as he did last season, while making 33 starts this season. Burnett has the ability to pitch more than 25 times. He made 34 starts this season. Lastly Chamberlain could start more games than 20. At six innings per start (which is what he averaged last season beginning with his third start, up until the game before his injury), twenty starts would only take him 120 innings. Many predict the innings limit to be around 150, so if healthy, he could make 25 starts. Under these perfect conditions, the Yankees would get 159 starts out of its starting rotation.
Obviously, I don’t expect this, which is why I put the number at a more fair, middle ground, of 141 starts. This seems to be a decent over/under. This leaves 19 starts to be filled in by Aceves, Hughes, Kennedy, and whoever else proves to be worthy. Season, the Yankees had 60 starts from pitchers who had ERAs of 5.40 or higher. These included starts from Rasner, 5.4, Ponson, 5.85, Pavano, 5.77, Hughes, 6.62, Kennedy, 8.17, and Igawa, 13.50.
By all reason, Hughes and Kennedy should perform far better than they did in 2008, especially Hughes. That, in addition to a more reliable rotation, means the Yankees will throw bad starts at a far less regular clip.
If you want to say that Mussina’s starts are being replaced by Sabathia, that’s fine. Pettitte will be replicating himself, if not getting better. The combination of Wang, Burnett, Chamberlain, and Hughes will be replacing the combination of Wang(1/2), Chamberlain(1/2), Rasner, Ponson, Pavano, Hughes (poor quality), Kennedy, and Igawa. Remember that number. 60 starts from pitchers with ERA of 5.4 or higher.

By: Mark

Mark — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 02:06:16 +0000

Chet, I definitely disagree with your statement that the Yankees are playing with money they dont have. First, lets look at the fact that they’re still shedding payroll. They’re still about 40 million below what they were last season. Plus, you forget to overlook the fact that the Yankees are also moving into a new stadium which will no doubtedly produce even more money. To say that they’re playing with money they dont have is a little far fetched…just my opinion. Plus, if you were Cashman, and you had about 80 million coming off the books, where would you spend the money. You need to fill a few areas. Would you spend money on 2 injury prone pitchers (Burnett and Sheets) or 1 work horse and then 1 or the Burnett, Sheets, Pettite trio. I agree that CC’s workload in the past few years is cause for concern, but who should they have spent the money on instead. This is a business, and the Yankees are reinvesting it to put a competitive team back on the field. I really don’t see anything wrong with that. It should be a really exciting year in the American League east…assuming you’re a Yankee, Red Sox or Rays fan. If you support, the Jays or Orioles…stay strong

By: Evan

Evan — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 22:26:27 +0000

By the way, I don’t buy Wang replacing Mussina. He replaces Wang. Yeah, he got hurt, but to think all five starters will make every start and not get hurt is nuts.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 05:23:24 +0000

I agree, Evan. Wayy too much. Impossible if Theo plans to start Masterson and, except for Furcal ($35M), there are no easy replacements for Lowrie.
I wonder if Firebrand would investigate the relative merits of Shoppach vs. Salty vs. TG vs. Montero, etc. Salty and TG have so little MLB experience, and seem very rough on defense (arm, E’s, passed balls, etc.). Kelly is coming off a knee procedure and has lots of K’s and he had a rough year picking off runners.
Even if Tek returns, Theo has to make a decision on signing one of these guys now, or bringing back Cash’s arm, and saving the kids (Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie) who each have important roles this year . . . or getting someone from within ready by 2010.
An intelligent comparison would be a good guide for the readers.

By: RollingWave

RollingWave — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 03:59:37 +0000

There offense can go quiet a few ways , it’s hard to project at this point.
Cano and Swisher on papaer both look like guys that SHOULD bounce back very significantly back to their 07ish level. would it happen? or maybe at their respective age they might even have a new level in them? or maybe something truely went wrong with them?
Jorge Posada, while he’s not going to hit like 07 and unlikely to go significantly over 120 games catched, anything he is likely to do is still a mega upgrade over Jose Molina, however he might also get just as hurt as last year.
Who knows with pitching, anything can and usually will happen. sometimes teams get lucky years where everyone stay healthy, or vise virsa, or anything in between.
I think that the team is likely to hit a little better than last year due to the bounce backs and health reasoning. but by how much? and their bullpen is likely to regress somewhat, because it was very good last year.
it’s a pretty high variable team that can end up anywhere from .500 to 100 game winners.

By: Evan

Evan — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:43:13 +0000

Chet,
I suspect Shapiro will ask for Buchholz (why wouldn’t he?) but there is no way Theo deals him. There’s a reason why he threw a no-hitter, and confidence and command issues derailed him last year, not his stuff. He is still an ace in waiting.
If the Sox really want Shoppach, they will have to cough up either Justin Masterson or Jed Lowrie. I can see them trying to snag both in a 2-for-1 deal, but unless I’m mistaken, I think the Sox would give up too much.
Masterson and Yamaico Navarro, perhaps?

By: Eric

Eric — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:23:07 +0000

The Sox are going to have to be very cautious in their due diligence in selecting a young catcher worthy of a young pitcher. I’m not sold on some of the names I’m seeing out there for young catchers. I’m somewhat aghast at Texas asking for Buccholz for Salty. I think Bowden for Salty. Let Clay and Justin compete in the spring for the 5th rotation spot, knowing that more than likely both will end up in the rotation at some point, due to the rigors of the season.

By: Eric

Eric — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:18:24 +0000

No question the Sox need to add depth for the Rotation. While most seem to think Teixeira is a lock to be in Boston, it could be said that its just as likely that Teixeira signs with the Angels who have made him the 8yr offer, and the Sox return healthy and take their chances. Sheets would be a great signing, and I think its possible they’d look to add someone like Penny, whom they could get on an incentive deal for a pitcher with injury concerns. They came to camp with what 7 SP last year? Still ended up needing depth.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 05:42:52 +0000

The Indians have other needs besides SP, like the Pen.

By: Chet Wheeler

Chet Wheeler — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 04:27:10 +0000

So, as Sox guys, what’s Kelly Shoppach worth? Masterson? Buchholz? I’d ask for Clay if I’m Shapiro.