It has become clear that the Red Sox plan on bringing in a veteran arm to round out the rotation that currently has locks Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield in it.
Despite the No-Hit Kid, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden’s availability, the Sox have been linked to several big names. At least two are off the board, with CC Sabathia taking the money in New York and AJ Burnett turning down the Sox to do just the same.
Derek Lowe becomes the remaining starting pitcher prize on the free agent market, and I don’t see the Sox giving him five years that he’ll likely get from the New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies. Paul Byrd rejected the Sox’s offer of arbitration and would prefer to pitch closer to his Atlanta home, so he is likely out of the equation. Who deos that leave?
The Sox reportedly offered Japanese starter Kenshin Kawakami a three year pact (a story later rebuffed by the Boston Globe) but the years and money make sense for what Kawakami should ultimately get. The problem is that Kawakami is an unknown, and while the Sox have the depth to invest in the unknown, the unknown should be of the health variety, not performance variety. The Atlanta Braves are rumored to be hot on his tail.
The Red Sox have been linked to Ben Sheets in the past and could make a play to bring Sheets to Beantown. Sheets unquestionably has the stuff as he started the All-Star Game this past year, but has way too many injury questions surrounding him, ala AJ Burnett, to think him a safe investment. His recent injury (muscle tear) will reportedly leave him with no restrictions in spring training and is more of a fluke injury than a recurring one.
Bringing in Sheets on a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third or biting the bullet and going to three years wouldn’t be terrible. He and AJ Burnett are very similar pitchers and Sheets is actually younger by two years. That said, the Texas Rangers are apparently in the lead for Sheets’ services and boast pitching coach Mike Maddux, who came from Sheets’ former organization, the Milwaukee Brewers, this offseason. I can’t see the Rangers not grabbing Sheets.
Brad Penny just a year ago finished third in the Cy Young voting by going 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA. He had injury woes this year and pitched only 94.2 innings with a 6.27 ERA. He missed the entire season with right shoulder soreness and had his option declined by the Dodgers (it was around $9 million). Penny can be thought of as a poor man’s Sheets. The Red Sox have been known to be interested.
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| John Smoltz – ztil301 |
John Smoltz is another intriguing name. Although many expected he wouldn’t leave Atlanta, he is actually expected to leave at this point. He may do just that, heading to Boston according to his agent. Smoltz had surgery on his right shoulder last year and may represent the safest investment of all on a one-year pact and reportedly is very intrigued in working with John Farrell.
Given his reputation as a big-game horse (like Curt Schilling… and I suppose CC Sabathia except for the “big-game” part) he could be an invaluable resource. Having his voice in the clubhouse to influence players like Josh Beckett is a plus as well. Plus, we know he can be a dominating reliever too. Given that he had a 2.54 ERA at age 41 for the Braves before going down, it would seem he is very much so still an effective pitcher.
Other names to keep an eye on:
- Daniel Cabrera — He needs to rebuild his value, is still young and might benefit from John Farrell’s tutelage.
- Freddy Garcia — He’s been linked to the Sox before.
- Braden Looper – The free agent market has been very cold to him. Could he be a bargain?
- Pedro Martinez — Just sayin’.
- Mark Mulder — Saw somewhere he’s supposed to be 100 percent over his injury issues.
- Carl Pavano — Hey, the Sox wanted him badly four years ago, too.
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If they can’t sign Penny or Sheets I’d like to see Pedro, he’ll probably need to be rested strategically, which the Red Sox do anyways, and he’s much more of a known quantity than any other of these guys. Cabrera is intriguing, but he’s also got a lot of enemies in the Red Sox clubhouse, that would have to be an interesting reconciliation. Smotlz can definitely be effective, but I think everyone just wants to see him retire a Brave, although it would be intriguing if he went to Detroit, the team that traded him as a minor leaguer to Atlanta. Mulder will never be 100% over his injuries, at this point he’s like the left-handed Mark Prior. Pavano was too much of a bum to put in the effort to stay healthy with his favorite team from childhood, no reason to believe he would for the Red Sox (yes I understand that injuries happen, but Pavano missed a lot of time with ticky tack things that could have been avoided with proper conditioning). Please for the love of God do not sign Kei Igawa, er Kawakami to a 3 year deal.
I’d love to see Pedro back but I really don’t see the sox going that route, Ben Sheets is a good option but Cabrera is definately a great option he’s young and under farrell could develop
You called it: Sheets, Penny, Smoltz appear to be the best options, and no doubt each would help us to the post-season. I don’t think we should be scared off by any of their injury histories.
Your reasoning about Smoltz’s impact in the clubhouse is a good one, not just for Beckett, but to help Daisuke and Lester. 2009 will be a crossroad year for all three of them. 2009 is also a watershed year in terms of bringing along young talent, and I can’t imagine him not having a good influence on Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, Pauley (if not traded), Tazawa, Hagadone, etc., and even our new catchers.
I, too, would like to see Pedro back, and Schill for the Fall, but Smoltz, if he can leave the Braves, would probably be the best pitcher for a contending team in what is becoming a very tough league.
I like the idea of signing the most proven commodity of the top three (Smoltz) and also taking a flier on either Cabrera or Mulder. This way we will likely have a solid bet in Smoltz and Cabrera and Mulder still have potential to be very good.
I would love to see Smoltz as our #4 starter, i think that great things could come of it, both in terms of influence and him still being a solid pitcher. however, the Sox seem to have an eye for the future and having three potentially big league ready young-uns to fill that spot its hard for me to imagine them spending big money and deny someone the chance to develop in the majors. Even with the Yankees rampant spending there rotation is at best an equal to ours, and they still have a question mark, a guy renowned for his lack of effort and being injury prone, a promising young kid in Joba who some in the organization were nervous about putting him in the rotation full time because of potential fragility. Sure the Yankees will be better next year, but as it stands now I dont see the Sox spending big dollars for a #4. but if they do, i’d love to see smoltz be that guy.
I find it kind of interesting how many intruiging names are available this offseason. We have a lot of different potential paths we could take here. And that’s a good thing. The more options the better.
Sheets has the biggest potential in my mind if his recovery is complete just considering his age and his stuff. But both him and Penny (and Smoltz for that matter) are NL pitchers with risky injury potential. So that has to be remembered. I think if Boston can get their hands on good solid medical records for all 3 of them. And then find one that they are mildy comfortable (not terrified?) with. Then I’d take any of those 3 to be a back of the rotation guy in the AL East. They have to be better than our current internal options (Buch and Bowden). They aren’t ready yet. We need to pick somebody up for this spot.
The best thing is these guys all have potential to be great pickups for us. I think we have to consider ourselves fortunate that, in a year where we have a big hole in the rotation, we actually have some decent options to fill it with. I remember plenty of times teams were forced to overpay for mediocrity in past years. At least this time we can have a little optimism about our options.
Not to nitpick, Evan, but Sheets and Burnett are in no way similar pitchers as you say. There’s a superficial similarity in ERA and both are injury-prone, but witness the career stats and you’ll see exactly where the difference lies:
ERA
Burnett: 3.81
Sheets: 3.72
DERA
Burnett: 4.17
Sheets: 3.96
K/9
Burnett: 7.5
Sheets: 6.8
BB/9
Burnett: 3.4
Sheets: 1.5
H/9
Burnett: 7.9
Sheets: 8.8
HR/9
Burnett: .8
Sheets: .9
You see that Burnett has the more dominant stuff but can’t control it well enough to make himself truly great, while Sheets less dominant (although still dominant) stuff but sick control of it, and thus a ridiculous career K/BB ratio.
Assuming health for both, Sheets is to my mind definitely the better pitcher of the two.
Very good data from Sam K. Sheets is my personal favorite. He has some injury issues, but if he is healthy, we will be acquiring a first quality pitcher. A guy who can not only fill the hole, but be a true asset for the next couple of years. So, for me he worth the risk, because the reward can be truly great for us.
Amen to all the above. Penny is almost as good, Smoltz possibly better, both potentially a 4th Ace. Their short contracts and Buchholz & Bowden substantially lower any risk, and I am certain their medical records are already being scoured, and contracts prepared.
Theo knows by now that the Yankees and Rays will need to be countered with more SP than we currently have.
Earlier, I felt that Masterson should be #4, partly out of fear that Theo would just want to get by, signing a Paul Byrd type “innings eater” at $7M to save +/-$3M, instead of landing a 4th Ace capable of providing the few more wins we will need.
But against CC, AJ, Wang, Pettite, maybe Lowe or Joba; and with the Rays upgrading beyond Price, IMO Theo needs that 4th Ace to get the team winning right out of the gate. This 2009 season will be intensely competitive, and every win be a playoff win; none more hard fought than 6 months of season deciding games vs. the Rays and Yankees.
Our relief pitching will also have to be superior, and bringing in a 4th Ace upgrades the Pen to near bulletproof with Paps/ RRammi (RRammo?)/ Monsterson/ Oki/ MDC; and allows Buchholz and Bowden sufficient time to fully prepare for a callup if/when Wake, Ben, Josh need time off, which they will.
With a 4th Ace our Rotation remains stronger than the Yankees and Rays, otherwise not. With Justin playing spoons with the guys in Williamsburg, our Pen also remains stronger.
I don’t know where you are getting your information about Smoltz, but your comment that he is “expected to leave” is dead wrong. His agent has opened up that possibility but your comment is extreme wishful thinking on your part. The Braves’ beat writer who of course has a good feel for the situation said recently that the news moves the chances of his return from 100% to 80%. Everyone around the organization still expects that Smoltz will be back in a Braves uniform this season.
try spellcheck…it comes standard on most pc and mac’s.
Even so, Spellcheck wouldn’t have caught your incorrect apostrophe usage.
Those Bronx public schools really leave a lot to be desired, don’t they? With only so much public money to go around, I can only imagine how much further they’ll decline with the taxpayers of New York on the hook for a new stadium…
Spell check comes standard in browsers, integrated into a blog comment box does it?
No.
With the Braves trying for AJ and Kawakami it makes no sense to let Smoltz leave. If he does, he knows he has a home and a ring in Boston. If not, either Sheets or Penny will do a great job as our potential 4th Ace, and enjoy wearing that ring.
Spell check often doesn’t catch mis-spelled words, and just as often can’t recognize legitimate words, especially in specific applications like baseball . . . as in Kawakami and Smoltz.