There’s certainly been a lot of furor over the Mark Teixeira saga, but by no means should we be writing off the 2009 season.
Some people, like Sean O, feel that Theo did not take advantage of certain opportunities afforded him last year and is doing the same this year:
There’s a difference between maximizing your opportunity and trying to
avoid being over-anxious. For the second straight season we are exactly
on the cusp of being a WS contender, with just a little needed to put
us over the edge. Think of the difference between ‘03 and ‘04. Our
inaction is wasting the very short window of opportunity we have as a
competitive team.
As much a fan I am of Sean O’s comments because they challenge notions and make me think, I have to disagree here. Last year we pushed the Tampa Bay Rays to seven games in the ALCS. A couple lucky bounces and we are playing Philadelphia. I don’t think you can set up the team much better to withstand the losses of Mike Lowell, an ineffective Josh Beckett, a Manny implosion and Jason Varitek falling off the face of the earth. He did well.
This year? I don’t think Teixeira is that edge needed to get us into the World Series. Should we take steps to improve? Sure, why not? Theo still has a catcher, bench and possibly a starter to acquire so he is by no means done.
That said, I can’t see how we’re not set up to succeed as currently constructed. Remember, we came one game away from going to the World Series and the only major change in the landscape is the introduction of the New York Yankees into the equation but since when have they not been in the equation?
They may be stronger, they may repeat their 89-win year or they may win 95. Either way, it’s not going to impact the Red Sox because of two reasons: the first is that the Sox always gameplan for the Yankees to win 95 games and the second is that the team, irrespective of the Yankee Way of doling out money to cover up warts, is set up to succeed.
How? Let’s count the ways… think of it as counting our blessings during holiday season…
- Three gold glovers in the infield, four if Jason Varitek returns. A future gold glover in Jacoby Ellsbury and no defensive weakness in the corner outfield spots.
- A bullpen that increasingly looks to be a shutdown ‘pen. Imagine if we had Ramon Ramirez all year last year instead of Mike Timlin? This bullpen got a lot better and with the signing of Junichi Tazawa and continued maturation of Michael Bowden/Clay Buchholz/Justin Masterson, we are set up very well as the season progresses.
- A deep farm system with $40 million in flexibility as the season progresses to improve. Many feel that as the economy worsens or gets more entrenched, big-name sluggers will become available. If that’s the case, expect the Red Sox to be right there in the bidding.
- Lars Anderson, who may make us all forget about Mark Teixeira in one year.
- Josh Beckett, who’s 4.03 ERA belied his true ERA (xFIP) of 3.35, which is better than his XFIP or ERA of 2007.
- Jon Lester, who by all indications, will continue his ascent to be one of the best starters in the league.
- A general manager who has gotten us to four ALCS game sevens and two World Series’ in the span of five years.
I’ll put the 2009 ballclub up against any in the league, even if Jason Varitek returns behind the dish. And why do I say that? I say that because offense isn’t everything in this game. Defense and pitch-calling come at premiums behind the dish, and Jason Varitek is perhaps the best in the game when it comes to his dedication to pitchers. I’ll take that.
I’ll take a solid offense that can do it all: hit for average, power, gap power, take walks and steal bases. Yeah, we don’t have a sexy offense that hits moonshots, but we were third in the majors in total runs scored last year… pretty good for an offense that didn’t hit the ball out of the park often.
We have a good team.
Happy holidays, all!
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Merry Christmas to all
I couldnt agree more.
The Sox are a VERY dangerous underdog in the AL east this year…still the best team in baseball provided reasonable health…then you throw in the fact that theyll have the mental edge of being counted out and the championship pedigree they still have…oh boy, sox will be READY TO GO in 09…
you know Papi, Lowell and Beckett will be extremely motivated to prove themselves…
love the fact that we’ll be even more committed to building from within now…cant wait for the Lars Anderson era
also, a Red Sox fan base that had gotten a little too content last year will be foaming at the mouth to stick it to the yanks and get revenge on the Rays…Fenway will be rocking!
cant wait for opening day!
If you want to use xFIP for Beckett, I think you need to point out that Lester’s was 4.19. Otherwise, nice article. As a Yankees fan, I have to agree- I think the Yankees are now the better team, but it is pretty damn close, to the extent that no order of finish between the three strong AL East teams should surprise anyone.
It’s taken a couple of days of moping but now I’m fired up for next season. I preferred the Yankees when they were irrelevant, but I’ll relish beating them just as much.
Merry Christmas, and go Celtics
I have been a fan for 50 years and this never ends don’t worry guys baseball is fun enjoy it. The best part of baseball is watching young players develop and see what they can do to make the Sox a winner. Theo is the greatest because he has brought back the joy of the game. its a long season defense, timely hitting and pitching win games not big name guys. The rays will fall back and it will be us against the devil Yankees. Its the way of the baseball gods. Enjoy it and Merry Christmas.
Let’s go through the lineup:
DH – David Ortiz, superstar, but aging and coming off of a power-sapping wrist injury.
C – nobody, literally nobody. No word that we’re doing anything to fill it.
1B – Youk had a career year, very unlikely to repeat.
2B – Pedroia – Love him to death. I couldn’t come up with a bad word about him if I tried, except that he probably won’t come to my wedding.
SS – Lowrie, love him, but a big question mark for the club.
3B – Lowell is total garbage. If we get 300 ABs of .270/.330/.440 we should be lucky. If he’s our starting 3B going into this season, it shows the disinterest of the front office.
LF – Bay had a great season, and I was dead wrong. But who knows how this next season goes.
CF – Ellsbury is Juan Pierre, if we’re lucky. He’s not anything, and we have no backup.
RF – Drew. He has to get injured this season, right? I desperately hope not, because Drew is one of the very few indications that we care about winning. I’ll stick with him even if he plummets.
4th OF – Nobody.
backup IF – Lugo, I guess? $9m for a below *replacement* level player.
backup C – nobody.
backup corner IF – nobody.
SP – Lester. I was dead freaking wrong here, here’s hoping he keeps it up and his arm doesn’t explode from the 70 IP increase.
SP – Beckett. Meathead’s massive dump in the playoffs cost us our chance at a ring. Injured or not, don’t count on him.
SP – Matsuzaka – hopefully his BABIP miracle last year can be repeated.
SP – Wakefield, I love him to death.
SP – fifth starter, nobody. If we go into the year with Buchholz or Bowden penciled in, we’re doomed. I also don’t want to see a 3 year deal with Sheets.
CL – Paps is god.
SU – Masterson, who knows?
SU – Okajima, I have absolutely no clue. Mr. Zero, or continued success story? And what about RISP stats?
SU – MDC, I love the guy, as long as he’s not on the mound.
others – ?????
We need to have depth and to fill some of the holes. It’s been 2 months since the end of the season and we have somehow managed to lessen our depth, and made our insanely lucky ‘08 club worse.
Sign Dunn so I don’t have to watch Ellsbury, sign a 5th (and 6th) starter, dump Lugo to Japan if necessary since he’s not worth a 40 man slot. Sign a backup IF who can break .240/.300/.320. And, let’s see if we can get somebody behind the plate who isn’t represented by Boras.
Indications we’re screwed:
- Mike Lowell’s corpse is our starting 3B
- Buchholz or Masterson is our 5th SP
- Lugo has a role with the club
- Ellsbury is our starting CF
We are close to contention, but we aren’t even in contention now.
Evan, you brought it all back to earth. This is a great team, and can be the winning team some improvement, some of which we didn’t make last year, which Sean has rightly called out:
1. We have no catcher
2. We have no 5th starter. I would add that we win if this starter is a potential Ace (Penny or Sheets for 1 – 2 years)
3. We have no 4th OF. But Baldelli, Balley, Hairston, VanEvery fix that.
That said, I think Sean is being too pessimistic re: several players.
1. Mike Lowell is the grittiest guy on the team, and the nature of his rehab alone will insure he comes back stronger and fitter than last year. It is gruelling. Unless his surgery & rehab are failures, expect #’s between 2008 and 2007, which would make him Comeback player of the Year.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury’s future will be decided this year. He could flop. His all out fielding could get him hurt. But James projects .301 after a decent .280 in 2008. He could score 100+R, steal 60 bases, and win a GG. Another year of maturity could give him 10+HR, more BB . . . any bets that he has spent the offseason hitting against low and inside pitches?
3. MDC will not be a set up guy, and excels in earlier innings. RRammi, Oki, Masterson will be 7th/8th innings. I wish for Fuentes to get RRammi & Fuentes in the 8th, Oki & MDC for the 7th. Can’t beat that.
Here’s the difference between Yankees fans and Sox fans. Sox fans complain about how close they came to winning while Yankees fans take losses without bitching. “A couple lucky bounces and we are playing Philadelphia.” In that case, a couple lucky bounces and we are playing the Cards in 04. Does it make a difference? NO, so get over it. Sox fans ALWAYS find a reason to bitch and moan.
Let’s NOT worry about ANY of the negatives that the Sox have like the fact that “Papi” is batting .100+ lower in the post-season without Manny backing him up. Also in regular season, his BA dropped .20+ points after Manny got traded.
Let’s NOT worry about how Lowell had a career year with 120 RBIs and a .324 BA in 07 and that’s not going to be repeated. His career BA is not even .280 and the former World series MVP hit a whopping .274 in 08. Oh, he’s also coming of an injury plagued season.
Let’s NOT worry about how Varitek had such a bad season that the team is hesitant in signing its own captain.
Let’s NOT worry about how Beckett went 12-10 in 27 games with a 4.00+ ERA. A FORMER ace.
Let’s not worry about how Matsuzaka basically lead the MLB in walks. “Basically” as in he’s technically the pitcher with the 4th most walks BUT he pitched under 170 innings and had 94 walks while the pitcher that lead the MLB in walks had just 11 more walks in 25+ more innings.
Let’s NOT worry about how Drew’s a career .280 hitter, now with back problems.
Let’s NOT worry about how Ellsbury isn’t as hot as .353 like many people thought. .280 is mediocre at best.
Let’s NOT worry about how the 4th and 5th rotation spots are suspect.
Let’s NOT worry about how Okajima had MORE walks and MORE earned runs in LESS innings compared to 07.
According to Sox fans, All the problems that the Sox have will be solved but all the problems that the Yankees have will make them fail. GREAT LOGIC. Einsteins.
P.S. The ONLY Sox player that I can respect is Pedroia, everyone else INCLUDING “cancer survivor Lester” can go stick one where the sun don’t shine.
Sean O,
Thank you for being a realistic Sox fan. In no way am I saying that the Yankees have no problems. It’s just that I hate it when Sox fans overlook their own problems but are quick to point out Yankees problems.
Reality check. NYC is near bankruptcy and have gone a beggin’ to Albany. Albany is running an astronomical deficit (sorry, it’s growing so voluminously by the minute that I can’t give you an exact answer), Albany has gone to Washington DC a beggin’ (Waxman’s committee) trying to recoup their losses in write-offs to the debt-ridden Yanks. When will this Ponzi-scheme colllapse and be recognized for what it is? Thanks for introducing the tiny, tiniest bit of reality into this discussion!
Faiaz, go away. I certainly don’t want vindication from a Yankee fan.
We have a good an balanced team. But we have problems we need to adress. I’m not saying we need to panick, but I think the idea of sitting and do nothing is not an option if we want to stay competitive. If you don’t upgrade when you have the chance, then you are downgrading down the line.
So, we certainly have a good foundation, but I want to see the FO making his best effort to fill the holes with the best talent available.
I have never been so worried about a team with the reigning AL MVP. But Evan’s right: the team is built to succeed. We have players who bring plus skills to every position but we need a catcher who isn’t an automatic out (I love Tek but he’s there to handle the pitching and we need someone who can hit) and we need a backup infielder and outfielder. Anderson could legitimately be better than Teixeira. He has prodigious power for his age and if his glove/defense can catchup we’ll have a younger (possibly better) version of Tex, who we control for more than 8 years and less than $180 million. Also Bay has always been amazing; he’s just been buried in Pittsburgh. I think Ellsbury will be better with consistent at bats and our pen is solid. I’m just worried about Lowell. He needs to play well or we’ll have two holes in our lineup (insurmountable in the AL East) and a second albatross-like contract. Is there any course of action if he falls apart? Because that was where the beauty of the Tex deal was: it made us a very versatile team. Now, if Lowell struggles, I feel like we may be stuck.
Sean O,
“Go away” awww how cute. I wasn’t trying to be vindictive, just giving you a shot of reality. Proved again how ignorant Sox fans ar, “I WON’T LISTEN TO YOU BECAUSE YOU’RE A YANKEES FAN.” AHH the joy I get from the HATE of a Sox fan. Well that means the Yanks are doing things right again. I’M a Yankees fan and I’ll listen to a Redsox fan if he/she is rational but the inferiority-complex minded Sox fans will NOT listen to a Yankees fan even when the Yankees fan admits of his own team’s problems. GOOD JOB.
are*
really?
“P.S. The ONLY Sox player that I can respect is Pedroia, everyone else INCLUDING “cancer survivor Lester” can go stick one where the sun don’t shine.”
You sound totally rational dude
Good article Evan. We all have our opinions about Theo and the team he has built. But no one can argue that we are not good enough to compete. No one can say we aren’t good enough to put up one hell of a fight. We are. And we will.
Now still I do understand the frustration over the team as is. There are flaws. And we may or may not have enough to win it all. But no one can say that for sure until we get out on the field for 162+. So stop trying everyone. Just sit back and relax. Enjoy the holidays. And start psyching yourselves up for the REAL season. The one the Yankees can’t buy. The season where Pedroia owns rather than Boras. The season where it all gets decided on the diamond rather than on paper.
Have a most merry Christmas.
Not my fault that you lack common sense to know the difference between something literal and an exaggeration. It’s like when people say “Yankees Suck” or “Redsox Suck” they don’t really mean that they suck because both teams are rivals on the toughest division in MLB. If they do really mean what they say, well I don’t have comments on ignorance. Didn’t know that I had to break everything down to you like you’re a 4 year old BOB.
Sean O,
i dont know where to begin
to go through your synopsis line by line and prove each asinine assertion wrong would only devalue my standing as a baseball fan
you are an absolute clown. You represent the VERY WORST of red sox fans…i mean, there are places to
just complete, total garbage…
I thought Sean O’s post was bad
but then i read faiaz…oh boy..
reminds me never to take being a rational person for granted…
i mean, i feel like i just lost 5 years off my life by reading these posts…the stupidity is completely astounding…
with that i will leave this forum forever, confident that i will never read anything so worthless in my life as the opinions of Sean O and Faiaz…
SOX in 09 and beyond bc they are the best run organization in north american professional sports
Faiaz, you are not only persistently offensive, but your entire post #8 shows genuine lack of understanding Red Sox fans. New England, and in particular Boston, though one of the world’s more affluent and successful cities (see medicine, education, historic preservation, culture, land and water sports, etc.) is not driven just by money. Money is just part of the equation of success, Old New England money drives old cars, sail the family boat for generations, values education and service.
It does not honor a “bought” championship as an earned championship. Most Sox fans weren’t high enough on Teixeira, CC or AJ to spend a fortune for them. It’s not that the fans wouldn’t want them on the team, just not at that price. It’s embarrassing. You read these blogs. You have heard the shock at the amount spent for JD and Julio, a pittance to the Yankees; and the outrage at a $50M posting fee for Daisuke.
The anger and frustration from Boston fans is that the Yankees are squandering money to buy their way back to the division title. In this part of the world it’s just bad taste, bad sportsmanship, garish. The anger here isn’t that Teix didn’t land with the Red Sox, it’s that he played the Red Sox (and his home town O’s, and the Angels who supported him, and played the Nats for fools) in order to squeeze the most $$ possible from the team he intended to go to all along. New Yorkers call this good business. We call it sneaky, unethical, distasteful, possibly illegal, and worth high & inside pitches.
And as you listed the negative issues, player by player, of this successful team, you neglected a very important point. This Red Sox team played hurt last year and almost won it. This Yankee team played hurt last year and came third. My money is on the Red Sox.
“Here’s the difference between Yankees fans and Sox fans. Sox fans complain about how close they came to winning while Yankees fans take losses without bitching. “A couple lucky bounces and we are playing Philadelphia.” In that case, a couple lucky bounces and we are playing the Cards in 04. Does it make a difference? NO, so get over it. Sox fans ALWAYS find a reason to bitch and moan.”
I’d respond to this, but since you completely took that statement out of context to further your retarded aims, I’m not going to waste my time.
Giving someone the middle finger because they gave it to you first makes soooooo much sense. Especially on Christmas. Cmon now guys.
Yanks were sliiightly more injured last year. Cmon now.
“CF – Ellsbury is Juan Pierre, if we’re lucky. He’s not anything, and we have no backup.”
WHOA THERE, fella.
We’ve had that discussion before, Sean, and we’ve already discussed how misinformed and inaccurate that comparison is. But you don’t care about being informed or accurate, do you Sean? You have your preconceived biases, and you’re going to shut your eyes to anything that conflicts with your prejudice.
I have no respect for that.
I also don’t understand your continued venom towards Mike Lowell. The guy was hurt last year but otherwise has been a very solid offensive contributor for us, not to mention, still, a quality defender. You’ve declared him dead many times, but all signs say otherwise, if Lowell is healthy. So you have no faith in Lowell, but you’re determined to stand beside Drew, as you yourself admit, because he represents the culmination of your desire to see the Sox throw money at all their problems.
Merry Christmas, Mr. Grinch.
Wow, this turned into something less than Christmasy. Lets hope we get over it and don’t embarrass ourselves in front of trolls from other teams.
YO, Yanks injuries were perhaps comparable. You decide. Sox lost Schilling for the year, Beckett played hurt much of the year. Wake was hurt or played hurt much of the year. Daisuke was down twice. Buchholz went on the DL and never came back. Colon’s comeback ended in an interleague game. Aardsma missed much of the year and played hurt after. Manny was hurt much of the first half then went walkabout. Papi, Lowe and Drew missed much of the year and played hurt after. Lugo missed half the year and his replacement Jed Lowrie fractured and sprained his wrist and played hurt through October. Ellsbury sprained his wrist and suffered after effects for weeks. Other injuries included Cora, Casey, Veritek, Coco, Oki. In terms of depth, serious injuries at Pawtucket included Snyder, Hansack, Gronk, VanEvery, Kielty.
That devastated our IF, OF, most of the SP, and several RP . . . the Sox had to use 23 pitchers including two from AA to compensate; and a dozen farm players made emergency debuts or cups of coffee (including Masterson, Lowrie, Bowden, Zinc, Velasquez,, Bailey, Carter, VanEvery, Moss, Kottaras, Smith).
They did pretty well, didn’t they, all things considered. 95W, ranked at or near the top of most offensive categories (which is why Teix was a luxury), and decent pitching stats.
The question is, can the improved and healthy version of this 2007 and 2008 team (same core) compete with the healthy Yankees who have so far merely replaced Mussina, Pettitte and Giambi. My bet is still on this gritty, deep, talented, improved Sox team.
And that’s the other thing: injuries aside, this was a pretty good team, one game away from going to the World Series. To hear Sean tell it, you’d think we LOST, not WON, 95 games.
I agree with Gerry here and to take it a step further, would argue that the Rays benefitted greatly from the injuries the Sox and Yankees suffered this past season.
I think the Sox have some holes – catching being a huge one. I’m also not overly comfortable with Lowrie – long term, he’s a 4th infielder on this team, not a starting SS on a championship team. Lowell’s another year older and is not an offensive force – he’s a low average, low OBP guy who, if healthy, might hit 20 homers or so and drive in 80 – 85 runs. He’s ok, but don’t expect another ‘07 out of him. Drew. I like him, but he’s injury-prone which makes having a good 4th OF on this team essential. We don’t have one. Then you have Ortiz – anybody’s guess whether he’ll continue to regress or return to form – hopefully the latter (but we really could have used Tex’s bat as an insurance policy).
I’m more comfortable with the starters. Beckett will rebound. Lester’s the real deal. We need a 5th starter – but they’re available. Penny or Lowe please. I’m also comfortable with the BP, but Oki is a bit of mystery. Hopefully we get the ‘07/end of ‘08 version.
I’m not as pessimistic as Sean, but I’ve always liked the way he’s injected his contrarian views into these discussions. It makes them more balanced and I think it makes people pause and think a bit. I don’t buy into the gloom and doom, but you’re kidding yourselves if you don’t perceive some significant weaknesses.
How different would the Red Sox off-season discussion be had Joe Maddon not fallen asleep in game 5 of the ALCS and allowed the dead and lifeless Sox to come back from 7 -0 down? Remember in the prior two games the Sox were embarrassed 9 – 1 and 13 – 4 on their home field.
How different we would view this team had they flamed out in 5 against the Rays.
This team has glaring weaknesses and a GM who’s not been proactive two off-seasons in a row.
No pitching depth and no right handed bat kiled them in the playoffs last season.
TThe Boston media is in the lame and pathetic In Theo We Trust mode and has yet to accurately critique the shortcomings of Theo Epstein.
Why won’t Mazz/McAdam/Cafardo address these issues with the GM??
It’s December 26th and the team has ZERO catchers.
NONE!
It’s December 26th and the team has NO bench….no clear 4th starter and the 5th starter is a 40 year old .500 knucklballer who takes up 2 roster spots because he requires a catcher who can handle his floater.
Jed Lowrie an everyday SS??
Jacoby Ellsbury is an everyday CF who can hit MLB pitching on a consistent basis??
Youk and Pedey having career years covered up for alot of offensive shortcomings last season.
They’re having those kinds of years 2 in a row?
NOT!!
Theo sat on his hands last off-season and this team went from division winners to wild card.
If Theo doesn’t bring some SIGNIFICANT additions to this team they’ll go from wild card to 3rd place.
A battered and apparently senile Red Sox lineup (according to some commentators) was good enough to produce the 3rd most runs in baseball last year. You say I’m kidding myself if I don’t admit significant weaknesses in our team; I say you’re kidding yourself if you don’t see significant upside next year.
Wow…this thread has turned into the Christmas Day Massacre. Pessimistic (possibly deranged) Red Sox fans and Yankee trolls (like flies to dogshit as I said earlier) all joining in for on large happy sing-along…
Anyways, I gotta go with Sam K here. We had one of the top 5 offenses in baseball last year with our RF going ape shit, our SS killing us for the first half of the season, our DH playing with one arm, and our 3B needing a walker. Now assuming everyone comes back healthy (big assumption, I know), we should be in very good position to compete next year.
I agree that we need to work on the bench, bull-pen, and fifth starter, but there are still people out there to fill in all of these positions. A lot of dominos are set to fall now that Teixasshat signed with New York. As for catcher, I’m somewhat resigned to the fact that we’ll have Tek and Dusty Brown as our C next year, but maybe Theo will surprise me.
Even if we came in with the team we had last year, I still think we can compete. As Billy Bean always says, you have the first two months to find out what you need, the second 2 to get that, and the third two months to charge to the playoffs. With the economy in the toilet the way it is currently, I can guarantee you there will be better bargains out there 6 months from now.
Its not like I expect Red Sox fans to be able to truthfully analyze the injuries between the two teams. You guys will never change. There’s only 3 players on the entire roster, save the bullpen and assorted irrelevant backups, that actually didn’t suffer an injury last year: ass-buddies, and all-around awful players last year, Cano and Cabrera, and Mussina. There’s no use even arguing with y’all, so I’ll just let a precognitive ‘I told you so’ to sit in the back of your minds this year. You’ll see.
This was one of the ridiculous, fantasyland, rose-colored glasses comments I’ve read on a blog anywhere. I guess the C’s and Pats did not exhibit true New England values and “earn” their championships then. You know, acquiring big money players via salary dump trades (Garnett & Allen, but Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, and Lowell too on the baseball side) and employing unethical video taping practices. What’s that old saying about those who live in glass houses?
“I say you’re kidding yourself if you don’t see significant upside next year.”
Perhaps, but only if everything falls into place – which is unlikely.
And it’s not like I expect Yankee fans to truthfully analyze the injuries on the Red Sox’s end.
There’s no use even arguing with y’all, so I’ll just let a precognitive ‘I told you so’ to sit in the back of your minds this year. You’ll see.
I know that Yankee fans didn’t grip or complain about losing last season, ya right… well read below lmao…..
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Chasing74 Chasing74 is offline
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I tried to keep my fingers for a Boston collapse… we just need the Indians to sweep them, and for us to sweep the Rays… but I guess that was just asking for too much.
I hope Moose can at least get his 20th win, but it’s highly unlike since he’s banged up…
Going to be a long long winter… hopefully we make some moves to improve the roster.
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:49 AM
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stejay stejay is offline
Ohio Yankee
Join Date: Aug 2007
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I was extremely disappointed. I expect the Yankees to always believe,and hope that they are the best, and do anything to get there. That used to be the Yankees I knew and loved.
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My life baseball stats. SS-
batting average- 1.944
On base precentage- 1.628
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:44 AM
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ipitch ipitch is offline
2007 rookie of the year
Join Date: Sep 2007
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Posts: 1,250
Anybody else disappointed by the Yankees?
No, I don’t mean disappointed by their season. I mean disappointed by the Yankees essentially giving up before they have been mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs. I heard a lot of Yankee interviews yesterday, and some of them were speaking as if they had already been eliminated, even though Yogi “it ain’t over til it’s over” Berra was in the house!
The odds are obviously very very long that that the Yankees will make the playoffs, but didn’t Colorado win 14 out of 15 in 2007 to squeak into the playoffs?
Dot sound like very happy Yankee fans to me….
I’m not sure why so many people are so pissed the Sox didn’t get Tex. Lars Anderson is projected to be a very very good player. He is under team control for 5 years at very cheap money, and projects as an avg and power guy. Lowell has a year or so left, when he’s done Youk goes to third and Anderson at first.
Let’s keep some things in mid—
2008 hitting
NYY- 10th with 789 runs
BOS- 3rd with 845 runs
NYY- 6th .271 avg
BOS- 3rd .280 avg
NYY-6th .342obp
BOS-1st .358 obp
NYY- 11th- .427 slg
BOS- 3rd- .447 slg
2008 pitching
NYY- 15th- 4.28 era
BOS- 9th- 4.01 era
NYY- 30th- 1 CG
BOS- 8th- 5 CG (1 No hitter)
NYY- 8th- 11 SHO
BOS- 1st- 16 SHO
NYY- 19th- .266 baa
BOS- 4th- .250 baa
So, The Red Sox clearly had better pitching and hitting than the Yankees last year as a starting point.
2009
Obviously the Yankees have added some great talent. But don’t forget what they lost
Giambi- .247 avg, .373 obp, .502 slg, 32 HR, 96 RBI in 458 ab’s
Abreu- .296 avg, .371 obp, .471 slg, 20 HR, 100 RBI in 609 ab’s
Mussina- 3.37 ERA, 20-9, 34 starts, 200.1 innings, 1.22 whip, 150 SO
Pettitte- 4.54 ERA, 14-14, 33 starts, 204 innings, 1.41 whip, 158 SO
Superstars- no, but they lost some good players. This is also the money that they used to buy the new stars- but it is worth noting that they lost some good talent- or at least production that will need to be replaced. Plus, they will likely trade Matsui, Damon, or Swisher- Swisher sucks, but Matsui or Damon decreases production a lot
New Guys
Tex- .308 avg, .410 obp, .552 slg, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 574 ab’s
CC- 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 35 starts, 253 innings, 1.11 whip, 251 SO
(6-8 3.83 ERA in 18 starts 122.1 innings for CLE in the AL)
Burnett- 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 34 starts (35 games), 221.1 innings, 1.34 whip, 231 SO
Tex is clearly better than Giambi, defensively and offensively. However, Swisher is replacing Abreu will be replaced by either:
Gardner- .228 avg, .283 obp, .299 slg, 0 HR, 16 RBI in 127 ab’s
Swisher- .219 avg, .332 obp, .410 slg, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 497 ab’s
Cabrera- .249 avg, .301 obp, .341 slg, 8 HR, 37 RBI in 414 ab’s
Let’s assume Swisher is the CF- which seems reasonable
They lose Giambi and Abreu and possible another outfielder
Giambi and Abreu- 52 HR, 196 RBI, .275 (combined avg)
Replace with
Tex and Swisher- 57 HR, 190 RBI, .267 (combined avg)
Granted- Tex will likely help ARod more than anyone did last year, but those two lines of what new for this year compared to what they had last year is not that different. Abreu was greatly under appreciated, and Giambi although not good, still produced a good deal. Swisher had a miserable year (although good HR pop) and at 28 may improve marginally, but he is a .244 career hitter with his 07 avg of .262 as his high. Strikes out a lot, has decent obp for his avg, but is by no means a good hitter.
This does seem to be a case where the numbers seem to lie a little, but Tex/Swisher is not much better if at all than Abreu/Giambi- even though Tex is clearly superior to Abreu or Giambi of course.
Pitching-
Mussina- 3.37 ERA, 20-9, 34 starts, 200.1 innings, 1.22 whip, 150 SO
Pettitte- 4.54 ERA, 14-14, 33 starts, 204 innings, 1.41 whip, 158 SO
CC- 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 35 starts, 253 innings, 1.11 whip, 251 SO
(6-8 3.83 ERA in 18 starts 122.1 innings for CLE in the AL)
Burnett- 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 34 starts (35 games), 221.1 innings, 1.34 whip, 231 SO
This is a clear example of improvement. However, there are question marks. Mussina and Pettitte are guaranteed 200 inning starters with good stuff. Pettite’s ERA was up, but the two got it done- they were a combined 34-23 last year- not bad. CC is a horse- no doubt about it. But, he had only one year above 200 innings before 2007 (2002) the rest were 180-197, then in 2007 he went for 241, and 2008 went for 253- just insane figures. Clearly the argument is that he is overweight, and has pitched so much in the last two years there should be some concern. I think this is overstated slightly, and expect him to be great for the next couple of years- 4-6 yrs in the future with guaranteed money and a few more lbs and years who knows for sure, but 2009 it is likely he will be a beast. Burnett- those IP figures for his career are scary; although, when he’s on he is on. The Sox ownership is rumored to have wanted to sign him as a FA over the Beckett/Lowell deal, and it is not arguable his stuff is ace material. Discounting 1999, 2000 (early years without full seasons) and 2003 (4 games) here are his ERAs in order- 4.05, 3.30, 3.68. 3.45, 3.98. 3.75, 4.07. Those are good numbers a 3.81 career ERA is good but Mussinas is 3.68 and he had a 3.37 era year last year. 3.89 is Pettitte’s career ERA. Burnett is very good, but he is no ace yet. Discounting any argument about whether he’s worth the money he will make (its irrelevant to the argument about how good he actually is), he is a tricky pitcher to figure out. Consider that his home career era- 4.49, away, 3.65 and pre-all-star 4.96 ERA, post all-star- 2.86 era. Yankee stadium 4.49 may not go over too well- a run every other inning isn’t that great for winning over a home crowd that expects results often, and early- something he hasn’t done so well.
I expect Burnett to be good, but expecting a dominant pitcher doesn’t match his production- it simply has never been there despite glimpses of brilliance.
Burnett has some concerns- injury, never had ace numbers, never been under pressure to win except in FLA where he didn’t pitch in the postseason ever- but he will be good. If he puts up his career avg numbers he’ll help, but not by a huge amount. CC is likely to be brilliant. Yes, his CLE numbers last year were lacking, but he proved he was a big time pressure pitcher last year in MIL even if it is in the NL central. Yes there are concerns about weight and injury, but until he ever gets seriously hurt that’s all speculation.
CC and Burnett are better than Mussina and Pettite, but not by a tremendous amount. They have none or negative post-season experience, no big time market pressure, and Burnett has to prove he has ace-like stuff because that is the expectation and he’ll have to handle that pressure. Expect an upgrade in these two from Mussina nad Pettite but not by a great amount.
Overview of FA’s
Hitting- even with Tex, Swisher as everyday- or any of the young outfield alternatives don’t outperform Abreu and Giambi’s production by any measurable amount. Yes Tex will likely have better numbers in a good lineup (he had little protection in LAA, and ATL wasn’t a great scoring team), but the outfield looks worse. Fortunately for the Yankees the pitching will be better- but they lost good production from two good starters and hitters, and are replacing it with one great starter and hitter, and one below average hitter.
Now- NYY vs BOS comparison this year.
1B
Tex- .308/.410/.552, 33 HR, 121 RBI- 28 years old
Youk- .312/.390/.569, 29 HR, 115 RBI- 29 years old
Very similar production, although Tex has done it year after year and Youk has improved to this level- and thus has to prove its not a “Career year”. Both are tremendous defensively- slight edge Yanks but not by a tremendous amount- and per dollar certainly not.
2B
Cano- .271/.305/.410, 14 HR, 72 RBI- 26
Pedroia- .326/..376/.493, 17 HR, 83 RBI- 25
Not even close. Yes Cano had a bad year and was looking like a budding star- but he is by no means close to Pedroia who with Utley is in a class of their own for 2B. MVP v. all of a sudden bust. Pedroia is gold-glove caliber defensively, and Cano is average, Pedroia should alos improve and is a post season player, incredibly hard to strike out and the heart of the team. HUGE edge BOS
SS-
Jeter- .300/.363/.408, 11 HR, 69 RBI- 34
Lowrie- .258/.339/.400, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 260 ab’s- 24
Jeter is clearly better. Although, look at LowriesRBI, 46 in 260 AB mostly from the 8 spot- not bad. Project that out to Jeter Abs and he would have had more RBI last year. Jeter has lost some pop (2004 was last 20 HR year) only had 100 RBI once in 199, has had 78, 70, 97, 73, and 69 in the last five years- not bad- but also not truly that great for a very good offensive team. Good amount of steals, great post season player…. But all the stats prove- horrible defender. Lowrie? Who knows exactly. Following a long line of great prospects but he does not seem to be a star. Showed great signs last year. A better defender than Jeter, but not as good of a player. Ok RBI, no power, but a very small sample- probably a .280 hitter next year with 6 HR and 65 RBI or so- which is not too bad. Bottom line- Jeter and the Yanks have the edge- but even though Yanks fans hate to admit it- he’s not an elite player by any stretch of the imagination anymore.
3B
ARod- .302/.392/.573, 35 HR, 103 RBI- 33
Lowell- .274/.338/.461, 17 HR, 73 RBI- 34
Another big Yankee win. Best player in MLB v. a player that will miss time with an injury and has deteriorating skills. Lowell does have a lot to play for after the Teixiera talk, but he isn’t the player Sox fans want him to be and hope he will be- at least not any more. He is still terrific defensively- but not as good as he once was (the best fielding 3B ever), but still likely better than ARod by a small amount- maybe not anymore after the injury. ARod and Yanks huge advantage
LF
Damon- .303/.375/.461, 17 HR, 71 RBI- 35
Bay- .286/.373/.522, 31 HR, 101 RBI- 30
Damon is quite literally breaking down. It is apparent why the Sox said bye-bye (or at least said, “that much, fine go play for the yanks”). Yes Damon has a good average still, and he bounced back from 2007 quite well, but he never is quite right anymore, and his fielding has taken a dive to average even at left. At 35 he is getting noticeable worse, although he is still putting up respectable numbers- but look at Bay’s numbers- they aren’t too far off from ARod’s last year in RBI and HR [production]. He’s young, a good fielder not great, that is a true power hitter that drives in runs- Edge Sox
CF
Swisher- .219/.332/.410, 24 HR, 69 RBI- 28
Ellsbury- .280/.336/.394, 9 HR, 47 RBI- 25
Swisher may not get many hits- but the one’s he does get drive in runs and go over the fence at good rates. Ellsbury was a huge disappointment for Sox fans last year- no doubt about it. 50 SB is nice, but his obp and slg- not so much. At 25 he will get better, as might Swisher- especially in a good lineup. Edge- TIE
RF-
Nady- .305/.357/.510, 25 HR, 97 RBI- 30
Drew – .280/.408/.519, 19 HR, 64 RBI- 33
NYY ex-Pirate may not be quite as good as Bay, but he’s better than Drew by a little bit. Although, he did hit just .268 in NY and saw lots of his power slip. Drew had some health issues last year and went from unstoppable/best in the league type play, to nothing too often. Drew will likely have a better year next year, but health issues and consistency have plagued him and baffled Sox fans. Nady may be traded- or Matsui- but RF will likely be a small edge for NY, unless Drew has a consistent year in which case it will be even.
DH-
Matsui- .294/.370/.424, 9 HR, 45 RBI- 34
Ortiz- .264/.369/.507, 23 HR, 89 RBI- 33
Both guys missed serious time last year. Both guys lost power and production. Ortiz lost his bash borther in Manny and his wrist injury sapped him of his power. Matsui has always been great, but no Papi. Ortiz will most likely bounce back- but there’s no doubt that the Sox Tex talk was all about Sox office fear that Ortiz or Lowell or both will not be the same ever again- or in Papi’s case after the next several years. While Papi shoed signs of slowing down- he’s still a beast- 23 HR in a bad off year with an injury in 109 games many of them not feeling right still hitting in 89 RBI- not bad. Huge edge BOS
C-
Posada- .268/.364/.411, 3 HR, 22 RBI- 37
Molina- .216/.263/.313, 3 HR, 18 RBI – 33
?
Varitek- .220/.313/.359, 13 HR, 43 RBI- 36
Posada had 51 games last year and Molina 100- and not man of them were good for either. Posada has never been a good catcher (Molina isn’t bad), but he always hit like crazy. He’s older now ,and injuries are making him a DH stuck at catcher- but he needs to prove he’s still got it. The Red Sox, well, they have no catchers. If Varitek comes back it’s not much better, because he lost all his hitting last year. He can still catch like a champ, but he was pitiful to watch last year. If the Sox sign a young guy like Saltalamachia they will be set, if they are stuck with Varitek it doesn’t matter how close to 100% Posada is he will be better- but if they get stuck with Molina- ewww- both teams will have awful stuff. Edge- NYY unless the Sox get a good young guy.
SP 1
CC- 2.70 era, 17-10, 251 SO, 1.11 whip- 28
Beckett- 4.03 era, 12-10, 172 SO, 1.19 whip- 28
Edge to CC. Beckett will bounce back from poor year last year- he had a great whip, good a mount of SO, but didn’t quite click last year. Post season champ still, no reason to worry about his stuff. CC will have to be better than he was in CLE last year, but he did win a Cy Young in 07, and he is a beast. Edge- NY, but these two will both be Cy Young type guys likely
SP 2-
Wang- 4.07 era, 8-2, 54 SO, 1.32 whip, 95 inn- 28
Lester-3.21 era, 16-6, 152 SO, 1.27 whip, 210 IP, no-hitter, 24
Both teams don’t have a clear order for next year- is Burnett a 2, is Dice-K a 1,2 or 3? Both teams have great depth, which for NY may be needed if Wang gets hurt again. Outside of the freak injury he has been remarkably consistent- and very very good. Look for him to compete for cy young as well, and to have tons of wins. Lester may be the best pitcher on the Sox. He has terrific stuff, had been there for a no hitter and a WS clincher, and is unfazed by anything. If he gets better look out. This is close- but Lester has proven himself to be among the elite enough to warrant a slight BOS edge
SP 3-
Burnett- 4.07 era, 18-10, 231 SO, 1.34 whip- 31
Matsuzaka- 2.90 era, 18-3, 154 SO, 1.32 whip- 28
Dice-K had a bizarre year last year. Too many walks, but unhittable at times. If he keeps the walks down he could be terrific. He simply wins, he doesn’t allow too many walks to score, and he wins ball games. He needs to go deeper in games though. Buurnett is good, but Dice-K is an ace, Burnett has to prove he is- edge- BOS
SP 4-
Chamberlain- 2.60 era, 19 HLD, 118 SO, 1.26 whip, 100 IP- 23
Wakefield- 4.13 era, 10-11, 117 SO, 1.18 whip- 42
Uncertainty here. Joba clearly has terrific stuff- but can he start for a whole season. Expect the era to rise and for some rough patches- but he is too good not to succeed. He can handle NY, and once he gets used to starting he could be an all-star- but next year, transition will be rough at times- but overall look for a good year. Wakefield is getting old. In fact both teams have done remarkable well at getting younger pitching recently. He is still very valuable though. $4 million is a bargain, and his whip was great- better than Joba’s even- who is clearly unhittable. He gives up HR’s and has bad innings- but he does the job- too bad for the Sox the offense didn’t for him- as his 10-11 record does not indicate how well he pitched for lots of the year. Edge to NY, but Joba needs to be good- if he cant’t handle the transition, or has fatigue late in the year the Yanks have few good options to replace him.
SP 5-
Hughes- 6.62 era, 0-4, 23 SO, 1.71 whip, 34 IP- 22
Masterson- 3.16 era, 6-5 3HLD, 1.22 whip, 68 SO, 88.1 IP- 23
Uncertain who the 5’s will be for either team. If the Yanks bring Pettitte back Hughes can hone he skills some more, or they may look for another FA-type or trade for a starter- or go elsewhere in their farm for the 5. Masterson, Buccholz, Bowden and others have the stuff for 5, but Theo clearly loves Masterson. Buccholz has the best stuff but can’t translate it to the majors- which is also Hughes problem. He got shelled last year, and didn’t seem to handle it to well. Lester had similar first year struggles but he won his rookie games, and got through it- Hughes flopped, and it may be tough to rebound to match his great ace-like potential. Both teams have potential here- but the Sox have more options. They have older guys like Pauley who can come in for a game as well, and they can shuffle young guys to optimize development and hot streaks in a way the Yankees simply can’t which is one reason they have the edge here.
Bench-
NYY- Molina, Ransom, Cabrera, Gardner
BOS- Lugo, Bailey, Van Every
NYY has its bench somewhat set- they will make some trades but it is decent. BOS, they have a bunch of young talent they want to keep in AAA. They’ll make some moves to sign FA types to fill the role Cora had, and get a 4th OF, and another catcher. To early to say whose side is better since the Sox have no bench yet and the Yankees will surely make some trades. The Sox will have better farm talent to bring up, but likely a liottle worse of an everyday major league bench- so the Yanks will likely have a slight edge.
Closer-
Rivera- 1.40 era, 39/40 svs, 77 SO, 0.67 whip, 70.2 IP- 39
Papelbon- 2.34 era, 41/46 svs, 77 SO, 0.95 whip, 69.1 whip- 28
Both insanely good- EVEN
Eight Inning Guy 1-
Damaso Marte- 4.02 era, 25 HLD, 71 SO, 1.20 whip 65 IP- 33
Okajima- 2.61 era, 23 HLD, 60 SO, 1.16 whip, 62 IP- 32
Okajima wasn;t as sharp last year, but he still gets it done. Marte is good, but not a great second bullpen guy- edge- Sox
Eight Inning Guy 2-
Edwar Ramirez- 3.90 era, 63 SO, 1.23 whip, 55.1 IP- 27
Delcarmen- 3.27 era, 18 HLD, 72 SO, 1.12 whip, 74.1 IP- 26
Both young and upcoming guys- Delcarmen has lightly better stuff, and more experience and thus has the edge/
Bull Pen-
NY
Jose Veras- 3.59 era, 63 SO, 1.40 whip, 57.2 IP- 28
Brian Bruney- 1.83 era, 33 SO, 0.99 whip, 34.1 IP- 26
Jonathan Albaladejo- 3.95 era, 13 SO, 1.54 whip, 13.2 IP- 26
BOS
Ramirez- 2.64 era, 21 HLD, 70 SO, 1.23 whip, 71.2 IP- 27
Lopez- 2.43 era, 10 HLD, 38 SO, 1.35 whip, 59.1 IP- 31
Aardsma- 5.55era, 49 SO, 1.73 whip, 48.2 IP- 26
Ramirez is likely the best of the bunch, and they all have good young arms, but the Yanks have more potential to be good than the Sox do in the bottom part of the bullpen and thus have a slight edge.
Overall-
NY will improve their offense slightly, and BOS will likely remain the same- with young guys developing and Lugo not playing to help alleviate the early loss of Lowell and the uncertainty of the catcher position. Last year:
NYY- 10th with 789 runs
BOS- 3rd with 845 runs
This year they will both be top 5 and about even.
As far as hitting- the Yanks playing Swisher or yoiung guys and dropping Abreu will hurt the average a little even with the loss of Giambi and the addition of good hitting Tex- unless the young guys- Can in particular- can prove they have what it takes. The Sox had some big average years, and Varitek likely won’t be back, and Lugo will be traded or benched, but Youk and Pedoria have to back up monster years. Especially with Lowries and Ellsbury’s growth- they will likely improve the batting average.
Last year:
NYY- 6th .271 avg
BOS- 3rd .280 avg
This year: Look for Yanks to stay about the same, and the Sox to do the same or move up to .285 at best.
Both teams are patient- and Tex helps the OBP a lot, but Giambi and Abreu were no bums. Cano, Swisher, Gardner, and Cabrera need to be have much better years to improve obp though. The sox should staty about the same even with Lowell missing time, mainly with Lugo and Varitek gone, and young players likely to marginally improve. Although, monster years by Pedoria and Youk has to happen again for the sox to stay at 1.
Last year:
NYY-6th .342obp
BOS-1st .358 obp
This year: Look for both to be around top 5- with a slight edge to the Sox.
The Yanks added power in Swisher and Tex, but Abreu and Giambi had power as well. ARod will likely have more HRs this year, and Jeter can improve the power. The young guys need to step up for the Yanks, and the Sox. Look for good NY improvement, but slight drop or consistency for Sox.
Last year:
NYY- 11th- .427 slg
BOS- 3rd- .447 slg
This year: Both near or in top 5, slight edge to Sox.
Pitching will be the difference maker. The Yanks need it to be with the two signings. As stated earlier they lost some good guys that got wins- so the new aces need to prove themesleves. The Sox have room to grow- Dice-K had a weird but effective year, and Lester is still improving, but Beckett needs to have a great year to keep pace with CC and the new look NY staff. The bottom of both rotations have question marks, especially the Yankees. Both teams have good bullpens, but the Sox bullpen should lower the team era whereas the NY bullpen won’t be quite as good most likely.
Last year:
2008 pitching
NYY- 15th- 4.28 era
BOS- 9th- 4.01 era
This year: Both will improve- look for era of near 4 for both- no clear edge until the new Yankee staff shows what it can do in the new ballpark.
Longevity- Yankees lost two horses, but added the best horse of them all in CC, but Burnett won’t go deep. Lester does, Dice-K can if he doesn’t walk people, and Beckett does. Look fo it to remain equal for the Sox, and to explode for the Yanks simply because of CC.
Last year:
NYY- 30th- 1 CG
BOS- 8th- 5 CG (1 No hitter)
Thjs year: CC may have ten and the rest of the team none, either way they will have more than the Sox, but this stat means very little.
Both teams will have similar amounts of shutouts- which mena little overall.
NYY- 8th- 11 SHO
BOS- 1st- 16 SHO
The Yanks gave up way too many hits last year, but they will improve that. Their defense sucks which doesn’t help, but they’ll be better. Look for them to move up to .255 and the Sox to stay the same.
Last year:
NYY- 19th- .266 baa
BOS- 4th- .250 baa
This year:
Both around .255.
Overall-
Very equal. The Sox have around 40 million to get a catcher (or two) and backup bench players. The Yanks have some minor adjustments to make- but the staffs seem sset- and both very capable. People forget the Yankees didn’t score well last year, and that they lose some good players- and even though the new players are terrific they need to prove themselves in NY before they ar guaranteed to win the division.
I see TB falling like the Rockies did after the WS- but not by much.
Standings:
BOS-95-67
NY- 92-70
TB- 88-74
TOR- 75-87
BAL- 68- 94
Now there’s a post, Bob. Great job. Agree with you for much of it, with exceptions.
Unless Posada works a miracle and catches 120 games, a combination of Tek or Shoppach & Kottaras or Brown will rank more highly than you list.
Drew is a better than you say. The Sox led the league in OBP with .359. Drew led the Sox with .408. Compare JD with Manny:
JD.Drew: 368AB, 79R, 23-2b, 4-3b, 19HR, 64RBI, 79BB, 80K, .280BA, .927OPS.
Manny: 365AB, 66R, 22-2b, 1-3b, 20HR, 68RBI, 53BB, 86K,
.299BA, 1.027OPS.
IMO, Drew is better than Nady. So will be Baldelli or Van Every both offensively and defensively. RF to the Sox.
Ellsbury vs. Swisher. Although Ells is just a sophomore, this is his 3rd year up. He is potentially great, and with experience and a resurgent .280BA, 3rd in ROY, 50SB, 97R, no errors, etc., he should be confident and aggreassive. If Ells breaks out this year, as James predicts, any Yankee in CF will come up short. If he doesn’t, I agree. I’m counting on advantage Ells/Sox.
Do not sell Mike Lowell short this year. If he can play, he will play well above his 2008 #’s. He will be focused and fierce. A-Rod may be a great stats guy, but Lowell is Mr. Clutch and is still a GG fielder. This could be closer than you think.
RRammi and Masterson will be setting up Paps, not MDC. The Sox Pen is about 15 RP deep: Hansack, Gronk, Jones, Bard, Gronk Littleton, Traber included.
The pre-injury Lowrie we saw when he first came up is the real Lowrie, the 2007 offensive player of the year. We were amazed at his flawless defense and significant range. With his wrist healed, this switch-hitting 9th-holer could show us he is on the rise, even as DJ is on the decline. Again, could be closer than you think and, in 2010, the edge could move to the Sox.
The Sox will assemble a big bat bench, upgrade catcher, sign a potential Ace as 5th SP, and most of our walking wounded will be healthy. Be afraid Yankees.
The legend of Lars!! Just unbelievable how many Sox fans have AA player Lars Anderson headed to Cooperstown already. Jeeez….
How can this kid ever live up to these expectations? Few do!!
Bob did you factor into your stats how most members of the Yankees starting 9 had off years offensively last year?
Can we expect the same this year?
Did you factor in how Youk and Pedroia had career/MVP years for the Sox this season?
Can we expect the same next year?
Stats are very misleading.
This team needs another big stick and at least one more starting pitcher.
I see Jason Bay as a 25 HR – 80 RBI – 200 SO player in the American league.
JuD Drew will give us 15-20 HR and 65 – 75 RBI
Jacoby will not hit for power or RBI. Question is will he hit for average and have an acceptable OBP as a lead-off hitter?
This team is going to have some relatively
weak production coming from their outfield.
This team has real hardcore issues that need to be addressed.
Question is will they be?
They weren’t last year at this time and the team paid for it by seasons end.
You know what in todays basebal economy both redsox and yankees have money to always be competitive and they probably will every year barring unforseen injuries etc. After last year with the emergence of the Rays i said to myself the next few years in the al east are going to be fun to watch because the rays will be there until they cant afford to re sign all these guys when they become free agents. The Sox will be back again and had a good year coming just one game short of making the world series and the Yankees despite having an off year i knew would be back as they did with their offseason signings and they have some good young talent on the horizon. I think regardless of which team you root for of these three i think we should all as baseball fans sit back and enjoy the ride the Al East should be exciting for the forseeable future
Nice comment Bob, it’s quite refreshing to see some stat-based analysis as opposed to immature trolling and fanboy homerism (both from Yankee and Sox fans). My comments:
I think you exaggerate the difference between Cano and Pedroia. There is no doubt that Pedroia had a great, MVP caliber year and is a better defender, but there is always the possibility of regression. Cano has shown himself to be capable of putting up numbers comparable to or even better than Pedroia’s 2008 line. Pedroia’s plate discipline and defense give him an edge, but Cano has proven that he is capable of posting better power numbers than Pedroia, and could hit for a similar or higher average as well. At the moment, definitely an edge for Boston, but not a HUGE edge.
As for Beckett vs. Sabathia, it is worthy of note that Beckett has had only 1 ace-worthy season as a member of the Red Sox, with the CY Young runner-up season sandwiched between a 5.01 ERA in ‘06 and a 4.03 ERA in ‘08. Certainly excuses can be made for his mediocre performance in those 2 seasons, but I think that given his track record in the last 3 seasons, it might be reasonable to expect inconsistency out of Beckett, and possibly dial back the CY Young expectations.
Otherwise, no major complaints, you certainly did a very thorough job. The Yankees are definitely an improved team from last season, but it will be interesting to see how much of an effect the new acquisitions will be able to have. It should be an exciting race, and that’s without even thinking of the Rays, who should be dangerous as their young guys mature.
Sean O…I think you are a fraud a Yankee fan posing as a frustrated Sox fans Your comments are ridiculous…Ellsbury was just a rookie who hit 280 and LED THE LEAGUE in stolen bases…a GREAT fielder to boot this year a 300 plus hitter Yanks have a BUM, Mlky Cabrerra…Pedroia is incredible..Youkilis is as good as Teixeira and then some..Lowrie played with a fracture and sprain, this year will rival Pedroia at the plate and be a star (hit 310 before hurting wrist) Lowell operation was 100% successful and he will be excellent at 3d Bay is a very solid, powerful left fielder…Ramon Ramirez is fantastic reliever a 2.64 ERA with Royals 1000x better than departed Timolin..Tazawea will be a boost to pen, Masterson great PAPS great..Oki had a 2.6 ERA with all the whining We just need a catcher, a fourth outfielder (Baldeli) and sign Ben Sheets for 2 years stay away from Lowe…Lowe had a 4.55 ERA on the road (2.30 in Dodgers Stadiunm) Ben Sheets 3.03 ERA on the road!! Thats the Test!!!
We can win it all especially if PAPI has a healthy wrist Sox fans are all over him for ONE off year due to injury all the hypocrites will be roaring when he bangs out 43 homers and 128RBI
Good job Tom! Are you done eating the shit?
A few little things:
- For anyone expecting a contribution from Tazawa this year, I would be shocked if he threw a single inning for the MLB club. Indications I’ve heard see him heading right to Portland, and while I like the signing, there is absolutely no indication that his talent level could immediately handle the 2009 AL East.
- I don’t care about SBs, so as far as I’m concerned they add no value. Ellsbury hit exactly what I expected last season, because he’s not very good, injury or not.
- random comment from the “Santana to the Mets” thread from january:
“To everyone who is saying we can now spend [Santana's] money on a hitter: we aren’t going to do that, because Theo doesn’t care about that. He only cares about getting mediocre players like Lowell instead of players who can actually make a difference. If Teixeira is on the market, we’re not going to bother.”
- from the same thread:
“If Ellsbury has a single year where a few balls don’t fall his way, we’re looking at a .280/.330/.390 player.”
Ellsbury’s 2008: .280/.336/.394
I’m really proud of this one.
Wow, great stuff, Bob.
And it’s just as unlikely that the apocalyptic everybody-gets-injured scenario will happen again. More likely, some guys will be healthy this year, and some guys will be hurt again. That being the case, I’ll take my chances on a lineup that, although beleaguered last year, still managed to be one of the best in baseball.
And Sean, I’m thrilled SB’s add no value in your almighty opinion, but the fact of the matter is that SB’s gave Ellsbury something like +40 total bases last year, which is just as good as 20 extra doubles or 10 extra homeruns in my book. Run the math, factor that into his SLB and OPS, and then get back to me about his line — which you love to throw around as proof that he’s worthless, as you willfully ignore not only the value of his SB’s but more importantly his GG caliber defense.
SamK, re: Ells’s defense. Isn’t the Gold Glove an award for the best defense. I don’t see how Sizemore could possibly have earned that award ahead of Ellsbury. Ells took more runs away from the opposition and killed more rallies with his regular web-gems than anyone in baseball. Maybe because he did the same in LF and RF? If so, they should re-write those rules.
I’m not saying Ellsbury has no value, just that he’ll always be a below-average MLB player. He has great defense, just not as good as Coco. I’ll take a below average CF with good defense just as long as we have an average or better catcher and 3B. But Ellsbury’s net value is going to plummet when he hits and passes through arbitration, where his total inability to take a walk will be overshadowed by the gaudy SB numbers and his $$$ skyrocket.
On one hand, the value of a SB will increase now that Papi is iffy and Manny is gone. On the other hand, a player who gets on base at a .330 clip isn’t getting on enough for the stolen base to matter.
If Jacoby can manage .300/.360/.450, then he’s fine until we can find a dramatically better solution. But Jacoby is a placeholder while we search for a real solution at the position, not the solution himself.
Great post Bob!…Evan is there anyway that you can get this posted to the front page as a Fresh Take? Its more of a real post than a comment anyway.