There’s certainly been a lot of furor over the Mark Teixeira saga, but by no means should we be writing off the 2009 season.
Some people, like Sean O, feel that Theo did not take advantage of certain opportunities afforded him last year and is doing the same this year:
There’s a difference between maximizing your opportunity and trying to
avoid being over-anxious. For the second straight season we are exactly
on the cusp of being a WS contender, with just a little needed to put
us over the edge. Think of the difference between ‘03 and ‘04. Our
inaction is wasting the very short window of opportunity we have as a
competitive team.
As much a fan I am of Sean O’s comments because they challenge notions and make me think, I have to disagree here. Last year we pushed the Tampa Bay Rays to seven games in the ALCS. A couple lucky bounces and we are playing Philadelphia. I don’t think you can set up the team much better to withstand the losses of Mike Lowell, an ineffective Josh Beckett, a Manny implosion and Jason Varitek falling off the face of the earth. He did well.
This year? I don’t think Teixeira is that edge needed to get us into the World Series. Should we take steps to improve? Sure, why not? Theo still has a catcher, bench and possibly a starter to acquire so he is by no means done.
That said, I can’t see how we’re not set up to succeed as currently constructed. Remember, we came one game away from going to the World Series and the only major change in the landscape is the introduction of the New York Yankees into the equation but since when have they not been in the equation?
They may be stronger, they may repeat their 89-win year or they may win 95. Either way, it’s not going to impact the Red Sox because of two reasons: the first is that the Sox always gameplan for the Yankees to win 95 games and the second is that the team, irrespective of the Yankee Way of doling out money to cover up warts, is set up to succeed.
How? Let’s count the ways… think of it as counting our blessings during holiday season…
- Three gold glovers in the infield, four if Jason Varitek returns. A future gold glover in Jacoby Ellsbury and no defensive weakness in the corner outfield spots.
- A bullpen that increasingly looks to be a shutdown ‘pen. Imagine if we had Ramon Ramirez all year last year instead of Mike Timlin? This bullpen got a lot better and with the signing of Junichi Tazawa and continued maturation of Michael Bowden/Clay Buchholz/Justin Masterson, we are set up very well as the season progresses.
- A deep farm system with $40 million in flexibility as the season progresses to improve. Many feel that as the economy worsens or gets more entrenched, big-name sluggers will become available. If that’s the case, expect the Red Sox to be right there in the bidding.
- Lars Anderson, who may make us all forget about Mark Teixeira in one year.
- Josh Beckett, who’s 4.03 ERA belied his true ERA (xFIP) of 3.35, which is better than his XFIP or ERA of 2007.
- Jon Lester, who by all indications, will continue his ascent to be one of the best starters in the league.
- A general manager who has gotten us to four ALCS game sevens and two World Series’ in the span of five years.
I’ll put the 2009 ballclub up against any in the league, even if Jason Varitek returns behind the dish. And why do I say that? I say that because offense isn’t everything in this game. Defense and pitch-calling come at premiums behind the dish, and Jason Varitek is perhaps the best in the game when it comes to his dedication to pitchers. I’ll take that.
I’ll take a solid offense that can do it all: hit for average, power, gap power, take walks and steal bases. Yeah, we don’t have a sexy offense that hits moonshots, but we were third in the majors in total runs scored last year… pretty good for an offense that didn’t hit the ball out of the park often.
We have a good team.
Happy holidays, all!
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Great contribution, Bob!
Tom A. is right. That’s more than a simple comment. It should be on the front page, or at least as a community post, for been accessible directly.
Tom,
I’d love to, but only he can. He has to sign up for an account and then use the Publish a Post function on the sidebar. Bob, if you see this, would you mind posting it as a fresh take?
“This year? I don’t think Teixeira is that edge needed to get us into the World Series. Should we take steps to improve? Sure, why not? Theo still has a catcher, bench and possibly a starter to acquire so he is by no means done.”
Evan I love your articles and this quote says it perfect.
Absolutely Tex wasn’t the full edge we needed. However he was part of it and he was exactly what the Yankees needed. Since we allowed him to go to the Yankees there is not much out there in the near future that makes us on par with the Yankees. Anyone who doesn’t feel the Yankees are significantly better on paper then the sox today should have their head examined. If the Red Sox were Apple and the Yankees were Microsoft many people would have rightfully sold their Red Sox stock on Tuesday at the bell. In addition as we sit here 4 days later people would be continuing to dump the stock.
Theo is by no means done? I certainly hope not but what is out there to get? When will we get it? Is it close to making us on paper better? I laugh when people get excited Penny might come. Who gives a crap? He could stink as much as he can be good. You can’t say that about the Yankees spent money. This ownership and Theo made a huge mistake talking to the press about the meeting in Texas. It gave the yankees the ammo they needed. The stubbornness of Henry and Team has set this franchise back as of today. Can we make leaps forward…maybe but we can’t make leaps ahead of our #1 competitor for quite awhile. Unless you root for injuries and I for one will never be that type of fan.
As far as Teixera goes, I’m not convinced we ever really had a chance to get him at the money he’s work. If we’d offered 180M I can guarantee the Yankees would have brought 190M. This I’m sure would have been the case up into the low 200s and at that point is Mark Teixera really worth the money? Talented hitter, but he’s not Manny or A-Rod or Pujols.
In retrospect, it seems like Boras had him targeted at NY all along since he knew the Yankees could come up with the money, plus he’ll get many more endorsement deals and much more press in NY than he could have even got in Boston.
Hi guys- I’m glad you appreciated my post. I did try to post it on the fresh take but it said an error occurred and permission denied. I updated the post and I’ll post it after this in a second.
I’m not sure why so many people are so pissed the Sox didn’t get Tex. Lars Anderson is projected to be a very very good player. He is under team control for 5 years at very cheap money, and projects as an avg and power guy. Lowell has a year or so left, when he’s done Youk goes to third and Anderson at first. Let’s keep some things in mind—
2008 hitting
NYY- 10th with 789 runs
BOS- 3rd with 845 runs
NYY- 6th .271 avg
BOS- 3rd .280 avg
NYY-6th .342obp
BOS-1st .358 obp
NYY- 11th- .427 slg
BOS- 3rd- .447 slg
2008 pitching
NYY- 15th- 4.28 era
BOS- 9th- 4.01 era
NYY- 30th- 1 CG
BOS- 8th- 5 CG (1 No hitter)
NYY- 8th- 11 SHO
BOS- 1st- 16 SHO
NYY- 19th- .266 baa
BOS- 4th- .250 baa
So, The Red Sox clearly had better pitching and hitting than the Yankees last year as a starting point.
2009
Obviously the Yankees have added some great talent. But don’t forget what they lost:
Giambi- .247 avg, .373 obp, .502 slg, 32 HR, 96 RBI in 458ab’s
Abreu- .296 avg, .371 obp, .471 slg, 20 HR, 100 RBI in 609 ab’s
Mussina- 3.37 ERA, 20-9, 34 starts, 200.1 innings, 1.22 whip, 150 SO
Pettitte- 4.54 ERA, 14-14, 33 starts, 204 innings, 1.41 whip, 158 SO
Superstars- no, but they lost some good players. This is also the money that they used to buy the new stars- but it is worth noting that they lost some good talent- or at least production that will need to be replaced. Plus, they will likely trade Matsui, Damon, or Swisher- Swisher sucks, but Matsui or Damon decreases production a lot
New Guys
Tex- .308 avg, .410 obp, .552 slg, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 574 ab’s
CC- 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 35 starts, 253 innings, 1.11 whip, 251 SO (6-8 3.83 ERA in 18 starts 122.1 innings for CLE in the AL)
Burnett- 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 34 starts (35 games), 221.1 innings, 1.34 whip, 231 SO
Tex is clearly better than Giambi, defensively and offensively. However, Abreu will be replaced by either:
Gardner- .228 avg, .283 obp, .299 slg, 0 HR, 16 RBI in 127 ab’s
Swisher- .219 avg, .332 obp, .410 slg, 24 HR, 69 RBI in 497 ab’s
Cabrera- .249 avg, .301 obp, .341 slg, 8 HR, 37 RBI in 414 ab’s
Let’s assume Swisher is the CF- which seems reasonable. They lose Giambi and Abreu and possible another outfielder.
Giambi and Abreu- 52 HR, 196 RBI, .275 (combined avg) Replace with Tex and Swisher- 57 HR, 190 RBI, .267 (combined avg)
Granted- Tex will likely help ARod more than anyone did last year, but those two lines of what new for this year compared to what they had last year is not that different. Abreu was greatly under appreciated, and Giambi, although not good, still produced a good deal. Swisher had a miserable year (although good HR pop) and at 28 may improve marginally, but he is a .244 career hitter with his 07 avg of .262 as his high. Strikes out a lot, has decent obp for his avg, but is by no means a good hitter. This does seem to be a case where the numbers seem to lie a little, but Tex/Swisher is not much better if at all than Abreu/Giambi- even though Tex is clearly superior to Abreu or Giambi of course.
Pitching-
Mussina- 3.37 ERA, 20-9, 34 starts, 200.1 innings, 1.22 whip, 150 SO
Pettitte- 4.54 ERA, 14-14, 33 starts, 204 innings, 1.41 whip, 158 SO
CC- 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 35 starts, 253 innings, 1.11 whip, 251 SO (6-8 3.83 ERA in 18 starts 122.1 innings for CLE in the AL)
Burnett- 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 34 starts (35 games), 221.1 innings, 1.34 whip, 231 SO
This is a clear example of improvement. However, there are question marks. Mussina and Pettitte are guaranteed 200 inning starters with good stuff. Pettite’s ERA was up, but the two got it done- they were a combined 34-23 last year- not bad. CC is a horse- no doubt about it. But, he had only one year above 200 innings before 2007 (2002) the rest were 180-197, then in 2007 he went for 241, and 2008 went for 253- just insane figures. Clearly the argument is that he is overweight, and has pitched so much in the last two years there should be some concern. I think this is overstated slightly, and expect him to be great for the next couple of years- 4-6 yrs in the future with guaranteed money and a few more lbs and years who knows for sure, but 2009 it is likely he will be a beast. Burnett- those IP figures for his career are scary; although, when he’s on he is on. The Sox ownership is rumored to have wanted to sign him as a FA over the Beckett/Lowell deal, and it is not arguable his stuff is ace material. Discounting 1999, 2000 (early years without full seasons) and 2003 (4 games) here are his ERAs in order- 4.05, 3.30, 3.68. 3.45, 3.98. 3.75, 4.07. Those are good numbers a 3.81 career ERA is good but Mussina’s is 3.68 and he had a 3.37 era year last year. 3.89 is Pettitte’s career ERA. Burnett is very good, but he is no ace yet. Discounting any argument about whether he’s worth the money he will make (its irrelevant to the argument about how good he actually is), he is a tricky pitcher to figure out. Consider that his home career era- 4.49, away, 3.65 and pre-all-star 4.96 ERA, post all-star- 2.86 era. Yankee stadium 4.49 may not go over too well- a run every other inning isn’t that great for winning over a home crowd that expects results often, and early- something he hasn’t done so well. I expect Burnett to be good, but expecting a dominant pitcher doesn’t match his production- it simply has never been there despite glimpses of brilliance. Burnett has some concerns- injury, never had ace numbers, never been under pressure to win except in FLA where he didn’t pitch in the postseason ever- but he will be good. If he puts up his career avg numbers he’ll help, but not by a huge amount. CC is likely to be brilliant. Yes, his CLE numbers last year were lacking, but he proved he was a big time pressure pitcher last year in MIL even if it is in the NL central. Yes there are concerns about weight and injury, but until he ever gets seriously hurt that’s all speculation.
CC and Burnett are better than Mussina and Pettite, but not by a tremendous amount. They have none or negative post-season experience, no big time market pressure, and Burnett has to prove he has ace-like stuff because that is the expectation and he’ll have to handle that pressure. Expect an upgrade in these two from Mussina and Pettite but not by a great amount.
Overview of FA’s Hitting- even with Tex, Swisher as everyday- or any of the young outfield alternatives don’t outperform Abreu and Giambi’s production by any measurable amount. Yes Tex will likely have better numbers in a good lineup (he had little protection in LAA, and ATL wasn’t a great scoring team), but the outfield looks worse. Fortunately for the Yankees the pitching will be better- but they lost good production from two good starters and hitters, and are replacing it with one great starter and hitter, one very good pitcher. and one below average hitter.
Now-
NYY vs. BOS comparison this year.
1B
Tex- .308/.410/.552, 33 HR, 121 RBI- 28 years old
Youk- .312/.390/.569, 29 HR, 115 RBI- 29 years old
Very similar production, although Tex has done it year after year and Youk has improved to this level- and thus has to prove its not a “Career year”. Both are tremendous defensively- slight edge Yanks but not by a tremendous amount- and per dollar certainly not.
2B Cano- .271/.305/.410, 14 HR, 72 RBI- 26
Pedroia- .326/..376/.493, 17 HR, 83 RBI- 25
Not even close. Yes Cano had a bad year and was looking like a budding star- but he is by no means close to Pedroia who with Utley is in a class of their own for 2B. MVP v. all of a sudden bust. Pedroia is gold-glove caliber defensively, and Cano is average, Pedroia should also improve and is a post-season player, incredibly hard to strike out and the heart of the team. HUGE edge BOS
SS- Jeter- .300/.363/.408, 11 HR, 69 RBI- 34
Lowrie- .258/.339/.400, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 260 ab’s- 24
Jeter is clearly better. Although, look at Lowrie’s RBI, 46 in 260 AB mostly from the 8 spot- not bad. Project that out to Jeter Abs and he would have had more RBI last year. Jeter has lost some pop (2004 was last 20 HR year) only had 100 RBI once in 199, has had 78, 70, 97, 73, and 69 in the last five years- not bad- but also not truly that great for a very good offensive team. Good amount of steals, great post season player…. But all the stats prove- horrible defender. Lowrie? Who knows exactly. Following a long line of great prospects but he does not seem to be a star. Showed great signs last year. A better defender than Jeter, but not as good of a player. Ok RBI, no power, but a very small sample- probably a .280 hitter next year with 6 HR and 65 RBI or so- which is not too bad. Bottom line- Jeter and the Yanks have the edge- but even though Yanks fans hate to admit it- he’s not an elite player by any stretch of the imagination anymore.
3B
ARod- .302/.392/.573, 35 HR, 103 RBI- 33
Lowell- .274/.338/.461, 17 HR, 73 RBI- 34
Another big Yankee win. Best player in MLB v. a player that will miss time with an injury and has deteriorating skills. Lowell does have a lot to play for after the Teixiera talk, but he isn’t the player Sox fans want him to be and hope he will be- at least not any more. He is still terrific defensively- but not as good as he once was (the best fielding 3B ever), but still likely better than ARod by a small amount- maybe not anymore after the injury. ARod and Yanks huge advantage
LF
Damon- .303/.375/.461, 17 HR, 71 RBI- 35
Bay- .286/.373/.522, 31 HR, 101 RBI- 30
Damon is quite literally breaking down. It is apparent why the Sox said bye-bye (or at least said, “that much, fine go play for the yanks”). Yes Damon has a good average still, and he bounced back from 2007 quite well, but he never is quite right anymore, and his fielding has taken a dive to average even at left. At 35 he is getting noticeable worse, although he is still putting up respectable numbers- but look at Bay’s numbers- they aren’t too far off from ARod’s last year in RBI and HR [production]. He’s young, a good fielder not great, that is a true power hitter that drives in runs- Edge Sox
CF
Swisher- .219/.332/.410, 24 HR, 69 RBI- 28
Ellsbury- .280/.336/.394, 9 HR, 47 RBI- 25
Swisher may not get many hits- but the one’s he does get drive in runs and go over the fence at good rates. Ellsbury was a huge disappointment for Sox fans last year- no doubt about it. 50 SB is nice, but his obp and slg- not so much. At 25 he will get better, as might Swisher- especially in a good lineup. Edge- TIE
RF- Nady- .305/.357/.510, 25 HR, 97 RBI- 30
Drew – .280/.408/.519, 19 HR, 64 RBI- 33
NYY’s ex-Pirate may not be quite as good as Bay, but he’s better than Drew by a little bit. Although, he did hit just .268 in NY and saw lots of his power slip. Drew had some health issues last year and went from unstoppable/best in the league type play, to nothing too often. Drew will likely have a better year next year, but health issues and consistency have plagued him and baffled Sox fans. Nady may be traded- or Matsui- but RF will likely be a small edge for NY, unless Drew has a consistent year in which case it will be even.
DH-
Matsui- .294/.370/.424, 9 HR, 45 RBI- 34
Ortiz- .264/.369/.507, 23 HR, 89 RBI- 33
Both guys missed serious time last year. Both guys lost power and production. Ortiz lost his bash brother in Manny and his wrist injury sapped him of his power. Matsui has always been great, but no Papi. Ortiz will most likely bounce back- but there’s no doubt that the Sox Tex talk was all about Sox office fear that Ortiz or Lowell or both will not be the same ever again- or in Papi’s case after the next several years. While Papi shoed signs of slowing down- he’s still a beast- 23 HR in a bad off year with an injury in 109 games many of them not feeling right still hitting in 89 RBI- not bad. Huge edge BOS
C-
Posada- .268/.364/.411, 3 HR, 22 RBI- 37
Molina- .216/.263/.313, 3 HR, 18 RBI – 33
?
Varitek- .220/.313/.359, 13 HR, 43 RBI- 36
Posada had 51 games last year and Molina 100- and not man of them were good for either. Posada has never been a good catcher (Molina isn’t bad), but he always hit like crazy. He’s older now, and injuries are making him a DH stuck at catcher- but he needs to prove he’s still got it. The Red Sox, well, they have no catchers. If Varitek comes back it’s not much better, because he lost all his hitting last year. He can still catch like a champ, but he was pitiful to watch last year. If the Sox sign a young guy like Saltalamacchia they will be set, if they are stuck with Varitek it doesn’t matter how close to 100% Posada is he will be better- but if they get stuck with Molina- ewww- both teams will have awful stuff. Edge- NYY unless the Sox get a good young guy.
SP 1
CC- 2.70 era, 17-10, 251 SO, 1.11 whip- 28
Beckett- 4.03 era, 12-10, 172 SO, 1.19 whip- 28
Edge to CC. Beckett will bounce back from poor year last year- he had a great whip, good a mount of SO, but didn’t quite click last year. Post season champ still, no reason to worry about his stuff. CC will have to be better than he was in CLE last year, but he did win a Cy Young in 07, and he is a beast. Edge- NY, but these two will both be Cy Young type guys likely
SP 2-
Wang- 4.07 era, 8-2, 54 SO, 1.32 whip, 95 inn- 28
Lester-3.21 era, 16-6, 152 SO, 1.27 whip, 210 IP, no-hitter, 24
Both teams don’t have a clear order for next year- is Burnett a 2, is Dice-K a 1,2 or 3? Both teams have great depth, which for NY may be needed if Wang gets hurt again. Outside of the freak injury he has been remarkably consistent- and very very good. Look for him to compete for cy young as well, and to have tons of wins. Lester may be the best pitcher on the Sox. He has terrific stuff, had been there for a no hitter and a WS clincher, and is unfazed by anything. If he gets better look out. This is close- but Lester has proven himself to be among the elite enough to warrant a slight BOS edge
SP 3- Burnett- 4.07 era, 18-10, 231 SO, 1.34 whip- 31
Matsuzaka- 2.90 era, 18-3, 154 SO, 1.32 whip- 28
Dice-K had a bizarre year last year. Too many walks, but unhittable at times. If he keeps the walks down he could be terrific. He simply wins, he doesn’t allow too many walks to score, and he wins ball games. He needs to go deeper in games though. Burnett is good, but Dice-K is an ace, Burnett has to prove he is- edge- BOS
SP 4- Chamberlain- 2.60 era, 19 HLD, 118 SO, 1.26 whip, 100 IP- 23
Wakefield- 4.13 era, 10-11, 117 SO, 1.18 whip- 42
Uncertainty here. Joba clearly has terrific stuff- but can he start for a whole season. Expect the era to rise and for some rough patches- but he is too good not to succeed. He can handle NY, and once he gets used to starting he could be an all-star- but next year, transition will be rough at times- but overall look for a good year. Wakefield is getting old. In fact both teams have done remarkable well at getting younger pitching recently. He is still very valuable though. $4 million is a bargain, and his whip was great- better than Joba’s even- who is clearly unhittable. He gives up HR’s and has bad innings- but he does the job- too bad for the Sox the offense didn’t for him- as his 10-11 record does not indicate how well he pitched for lots of the year. Edge to NY, but Joba needs to be good- if he can’t handle the transition, or has fatigue late in the year the Yanks have few good options to replace him.
SP 5-
Hughes- 6.62 era, 0-4, 23 SO, 1.71 whip, 34 IP- 22
Masterson- 3.16 era, 6-5 3HLD, 1.22 whip, 68 SO, 88.1 IP- 23
Uncertain who the 5’s will be for either team. If the Yanks bring Pettitte back Hughes can hone he skills some more, or they may look for another FA-type or trade for a starter- or go elsewhere in their farm for the 5. Masterson, Buccholz, Bowden and others have the stuff for 5, but Theo clearly loves Masterson. Buccholz has the best stuff but can’t translate it to the majors-, which is also Hughes problem. He got shelled last year, and didn’t seem to handle it to well. Lester had similar first year struggles but he won his rookie games, and got through it- Hughes flopped, and it may be tough to rebound to match his great ace-like potential. Both teams have potential here- but the Sox have more options. They have older guys like Pauley who can come in for a game as well, and they can shuffle young guys to optimize development and hot streaks in a way the Yankees simply can’t which is one reason they have the edge here.
Bench-
NYY- Molina, Ransom, Cabrera, Gardner
BOS- Lugo, Bailey, Van Every
NYY has its bench somewhat set- they will make some trades but it is decent. BOS, they have a bunch of young talent they want to keep in AAA. They’ll make some moves to sign FA types to fill the role Cora had, and get a 4th OF, and another catcher. To early to say whose side is better since the Sox have no bench yet and the Yankees will surely make some trades. The Sox will have better farm talent to bring up, but likely a little worse of an everyday major league bench- so the Yanks will likely have a slight edge.
Closer-
Rivera- 1.40 era, 39/40 svs, 77 SO, 0.67 whip, 70.2 IP- 39
Papelbon- 2.34 era, 41/46 svs, 77 SO, 0.95 whip, 69.1 whip- 28
Both insanely good- EVEN
Eight Inning Guy 1-
Damaso Marte- 4.02 era, 25 HLD, 71 SO, 1.20 whip 65 IP- 33
Okajima- 2.61 era, 23 HLD, 60 SO, 1.16 whip, 62 IP- 32
Okajima wasn’t as sharp last year, but he still gets it done. Marte is good, but not a great second bullpen guy- edge- Sox
Eight Inning Guy 2-
Edwar Ramirez- 3.90 era, 63 SO, 1.23 whip, 55.1 IP- 27
Delcarmen- 3.27 era, 18 HLD, 72 SO, 1.12 whip, 74.1 IP- 26
Both young and upcoming guys- Delcarmen has lightly better stuff, and more experience and thus has the edge.
Bull Pen-
NY
Jose Veras- 3.59 era, 63 SO, 1.40 whip, 57.2 IP- 28
Brian Bruney- 1.83 era, 33 SO, 0.99 whip, 34.1 IP- 26
Jonathan Albaladejo- 3.95 era, 13 SO, 1.54 whip, 13.2 IP- 26
BOS
Ramirez- 2.64 era, 21 HLD, 70 SO, 1.23 whip, 71.2 IP- 27
Lopez- 2.43 era, 10 HLD, 38 SO, 1.35 whip, 59.1 IP- 31
Aardsma- 5.55era, 49 SO, 1.73 whip, 48.2 IP- 26
Ramirez is likely the best of the bunch, and they all have good young arms, but the Yanks have more potential to be good than the Sox do in the bottom part of the bullpen and thus have a slight edge.
Overall-
NY will improve their offense slightly, and BOS will likely remain the same- with young guys developing and Lugo not playing to help alleviate the early loss of Lowell and the uncertainty of the catcher position.
Last year:
NYY- 10th with 789 runs
BOS- 3rd with 845 runs
This year they will both be top 5 and about even. As far as hitting- the Yanks playing Swisher or young guys and dropping Abreu will hurt the average a little even with the loss of Giambi and the addition of good hitting Tex- unless the young guys- Can in particular- can prove they have what it takes. The Sox had some big average years, and Varitek likely won’t be back, and Lugo will be traded or benched, but Youk and Pedoria have to back up monster years. Especially with Lowrie’s and Ellsbury’s growth- they will likely improve the batting average.
Last year:
NYY- 6th .271 avg
BOS- 3rd .280 avg
This year: Look for Yanks to stay about the same, and the Sox to do the same or move up to .285 at best. Both teams are patient- and Tex helps the OBP a lot, but Giambi and Abreu were no bums. Cano, Swisher, Gardner, and Cabrera need to be have much better years to improve obp though. The sox should stay about the same even with Lowell missing time, mainly with Lugo and Varitek gone, and young players likely to marginally improve. Although, monster years by Pedoria and Youk has to happen again for the sox to stay at 1.
Last year:
NYY-6th .342obp
BOS-1st .358 obp
This year: Look for both to be around top 5- with a slight edge to the Sox. The Yanks added power in Swisher and Tex, but Abreu and Giambi had power as well. ARod will likely have more HRs this year, and Jeter can improve the power. The young guys need to step up for the Yanks, and the Sox. Look for good NY improvement, but slight drop or consistency for Sox.
Last year:
NYY- 11th- .427 slg
BOS- 3rd- .447 slg
This year: Both near or in top 5, slight edge to Sox. Pitching will be the difference maker. The Yanks need it to be with the two signings. As stated earlier they lost some good guys that got wins- so the new aces need to prove themselves. The Sox have room to grow- Dice-K had a weird but effective year, and Lester is still improving, but Beckett needs to have a great year to keep pace with CC and the new look NY staff. The bottom of both rotations have question marks, especially the Yankees. Both teams have good bullpens, but the Sox bullpen should lower the team era whereas the NY bullpen won’t be quite as good most likely.
Last year:
2008 pitching
NYY- 15th- 4.28 era
BOS- 9th- 4.01 era
This year: Both will improve- look for era of near 4 for both- no clear edge until the new Yankee staff shows what it can do in the new ballpark. Longevity- Yankees lost two horses, but added the best horse of them all in CC, but Burnett won’t go deep. Lester does, Dice-K can if he doesn’t walk people, and Beckett does. Look for it to remain equal for the Sox, and to explode for the Yanks simply because of CC.
Last year:
NYY- 30th- 1 CG
BOS- 8th- 5 CG (1 No hitter)
This year: CC may have ten and the rest of the team none, either way they will have more than the Sox, but this stat means very little. Both teams will have similar amounts of shutouts- which mean little overall.
NYY- 8th- 11 SHO
BOS- 1st- 16 SHO
The Yanks gave up way too many hits last year, but they will improve that. Their defense sucks, which doesn’t help, but they’ll be better. Look for them to move up to .255 and the Sox to stay the same.
Last year:
NYY- 19th- .266 baa
BOS- 4th- .250 baa
This year: Both around .255.
Overall- Very equal. The Sox have around 40 million to get a catcher (or two) and backup bench players. The Yanks have some minor adjustments to make- but the staffs seem set- and both very capable. People forget the Yankees didn’t score well last year, and that they lose some good players- and even though the new players are terrific they need to prove themselves in NY before they are guaranteed to win the division.
I see TB falling like the Rockies did after the WS- but not by the same amount- they have too much young talent to fall out of contention.
Standings:
BOS-95-67
NY- 92-70
TB- 88-74
TOR- 75-87
BAL- 68- 94
Added after Tex blog
Several other factors to consider include injuries. Teams don’t go the whole year avoiding injuries- so it’s important to consider what teams look like if players get hurt. In my opinion the Yankees have failed to win the WS in large part due to overlooking this. They always need to add guys at the break- and many times it goes well (Aaron Boone Boston fans will surely recall helped NY a little bit). However, they run their team like a fantasy team gobbling up the top players available. This works well of course- they have fielded some insane teams- but they don’t always have great depth- something that has improved for them of late as they have focused highly on developing young players (Cano, Gardner, Cabrera, bullpen, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy etc.). Baseball is a funny sport, when the game is on the line there is an equal chance the number 9 hitter bats as the number 4 hitter. Over 162 games this means very little, but when it gets to the playoffs and you have a struggling part of your lineup it doesn’t simply get masked by great power guys from 1-6, there will be times 7-9 guys need to produce or you will lose playoff games. The Yankees seem to have this problem for next year. Swisher (or any possible OF), and Cano could be decent (Cano may return to his previous projection of border-line all-star), but they aren’t a good back end of the order. Keep in mind Damon is often hurt or unable to be as effective as possible and that Jeter may have a great history and perception, but he’s not a terrific hitter anymore (and a terrible fielder), there are bad spots. What makes matters worse if anyone gets hurt. Posada getting hurt last year was a disaster. Assuming he rebounds it looks fine, but what if he just isn’t a top hitter anymore? What if he gets hurt- Molina doesn’t look so hot in any lineup. What if an infielder gets hurt? They are spread somewhat thin- an issue they hopefully will address before the season starts. Ransom, Cabrera, and Gardner will get AB’s this year, if they get under 100 each it will be ok, if they are forced to play a lot- all of a sudden that lineup doesn’t look as great.
People automatically assume the Yankees are great.
Example-
“Ohh wow Jeter’s up, this could be bad.”
Is it really though? Look at the following numbers:
.276/.331/.473, 23 HR, 89RBI
.300/.363/.408, 11 HR, 69 RBI
.316/.345/.440, 9 HR, 55 RBI
Who would you most like to face? All are good, player 1 had the most power, most RBI, most HR, and makes up for his lower avg with his power. Player 2 hits a lot, gets a good amount of RBI, but has less power than both other players. Player 3 hits the best, has a worse obp than player two, but has great slg for a player with only nine HR’s, and his 55 RBI seem low for his stat line.
Who are the players? 1- Peralta, 2- Jeter, 3- Guzman
Yes Jeter is good, but he is very overrated (especially for his contract).
Keep in mind that the Yankees did not score runs as well last year and lost tons of production in Abreu and Giambi. They need all their players to play well, for Cano to prove last year was a fluke, for a CF to emerge and have a career year, for Posada to not get hurt, and to play better than he did last year while healthy, and do all this with no one getting hurt. If that doesn’t happen, they won’t be the huge run scoring team everyone imagines.
Yankees Pitching
As discussed earlier I think CC will be great next year, but the innings he put up the last two years do come with a concern for injury year three. Big money for a long time could mean his physique may not advance in the way it needs to for him to be an ace down the road- but for next year he should be fine- and his injury risk seems at the same level as an average pitcher. Wang- same deal as CC, he had one fluke injury, and has been a marvel of consistency; expect that again- average chance of injury. Burnett- his injury problem may be overblown, but its based on reality. He is like Drew- he can be amazing, but he’s hurt too often, and sometimes you are left scratching your head saying why isn’t he a star? Good chance of injury. Joba/Hughes/Kennedy/Future FA/AAA guys- hard to expect this working perfectly this year. Hughes may be a 3.5 era guy as early as this year, but he sure got shelled last year, and it can’t be expected he won’t have similar issues this year. He got hurt last year as well, and could bulk up a little to alleviate arm stress- and it has to be a concern he either gets hurt, or lacks the consistency or stuff to make 30 starts. Joba- tough jump to double his innings. He’s got the stuff, likely won’t get rattled, but even if he stays healthy its hard to see him making 30 starts. After that they lack the depth to bring in good guys to start. If they resign Pettitte there’s no issue, because it makes Hughes a 6th guy to bring up which looks great- but right now- an injury or two to the pitching staff can cause some serious damage. What if CC, Burnett, or Wang got hurt and missed 20 starts? Replacing that with their options looks real bad, especially because it adds stress on Joba and Hughes to play very well. Yeah they signed two great pitchers- but they are still counting on two unknown young guys, and they can’t battle pitching injuries very well- unless they can somehow sign a FA fill-in, or get a good trade during the year.
Sox
Concern number one- CATCHING. Kottaras may be alright, and the future looks ok with Exposito in A, Brown in AAA, Wagner in AA- but they need to sign or trade for at least two catchers. I don’t get the Miguel Montero buzz, but Teagardern or Saltalamacchia from TEX would be great for the Sox. Saltalamacchia hinted he’d even like backing up Varitek. If the Sox have to go two years for Varitek they should say goodbye, but for one year he may be needed unless they can pull off a good young catcher. Worst case- Varitek, Best case- Salty or Teagarden- even under the worst case it won’t be too bad since it worked ok last year.
The Sox also need a 4th OF, and a utility infield guy. Cora was great and they need a guy like that to come in. Possibly Lugo stays and serves this role- and that would be ok for a utility guy. Baldelli or someone like him will be a 4th OF type. The Sox have done well with utility/4th OF guys, and they have done it on the cheap- expect that to happen again, they’ll have ok depth- keep in mind the Yankees bench as currently constituted isn’t great either. They need to figure out what to do in Lowell’s absence or if he gets hurt- but Youks flexibility is huge for this. Youk, Pedoria, and Lowrie are all young without health concerns- which helps alleviate much of this concern. Bailey and Carter from AAA provide some good bats to fill holes at first or to be a backup infield guy- so at the very least these guys should provide average play. Bay has always been healthy, and Ellsbury has as well; however, Sox fans have to cringe each time he dives in the OF. On a side note- how many people recall Ellsbury missing a ball or at least not trapping it on a dive? He seems to be risky with them, but it also seems never to fail. Missing a ball while diving in CF is a disaster and many players do it too often, and I was amazed at how Ells doesn’t do that- nor did Crisp who might be the best fielding CF in baseball. Drew has some concerns- and the 4th OF will need to address this. Baldelli would be nice- but he has injury issues to. Van Every seems likely to be the guy if they can’t do better- and he serves the role just fine.
Pitching
Outside of Beckett’s blisters, which have seemingly become less of a problem with each year- there are few serious concerns for Sox pitchers. Wake has gotten hurt an ok amount of late- but he seems good for at least 150 innings. Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K have become reliable 200 inning guys, and have average injury risks. The fifth spot is a concern. Luckily for the Sox its just five, not 4 and 5 like the Yankees though. And unlike the Yankees, the Sox are loaded with options. Buccholz has crazy stuff (ask the Orioles), and Masterson has proven he can handle the bigs- at least as an eighth inning bullpen guy, which is very huge for flexibility. Bowden, Hansack, Pauley, and Zink can all come up for at least a couple of games, and it is very likely in my opinion the Sox sign another pitcher. It may be like a Colon from last year though (Smoltz maybe). Ben Sheets could come cheap, or they could spend for Lowe who handled Boston very well for his time there. Even without another starter- the Sox are set to be good at pitching. Lester will improve, Beckett seems prone to be better than last year, and Dice-K hopefully got over walking everyone. The Sox can handle a pitching injury quite well. A bullpen injury would not be an issue- unless it were Paps. Masterson, Ramirez, Okajima, Delcarmen, Lopez, Aardsma, Littleton, and possibly Buccholz at times is very deep, very young, and very good.
The earlier projections were assuming most players have no serious injuries- and that teams aren’t unusually hit by injuries. However, looking at the make up of the two teams it seems to me the Sox can take hits better than the Yankees can. It’s hard to know because both teams (especially the Sox) have some tinkering left to do. Also, the Yankees have little payroll flexibility to deal with. They can certainly add small parts- but the Sox may have around 40 mill to tinker with even during the year. What if the Rockies blow the season and want to get something for Holliday- the Sox could do it. What if a solid soon to be FA pitcher, or a desperate team needs to drop a piece (especially with the bad economy) the Sox would listen. It seems very unlikely to me the Sox would add a big piece, but if they had fluky bad injuries and needed to make a hail-mary like move they certainly will be able to. I expect Cano to improve, for Hughes to be better, and for Joba to transition quite well- but if they don’t there are big issues for the Yankees. I expect the Sox to get at least a decent catcher, and decent bench players- but if not- they have plenty of young AAA guys that at least won’t be terrible and will be cheap. I expect the Sox pitching staff to be generally healthy- but if not- they have plenty of young options. I expect lots of the Sox starters to have better years since they are all in or near their prime (minus good ol’ Wake), and are expected to have great years. But if not, their depth can mask less than stellar years by one or two starters.
Did the Yankees improve their team with TEX, CC, and BURNETT? Absolutely. But they lost Mussina, Pettitte, Giambi, Abreu, and may trade pieces like Nady/Matsui/Damon, and that production doesn’t just reappear with any player thrown in their place. Their pitching will be better- they had a tough pitching year last year, and have addressed it with great young arms- but they weren’t great pitching last year so improvement doesn’t mean dominance by any means- but the makeup of the staff is such that they certainly could be. They also didn’t score runs as well last year- and they lost two guys that had a great deal of RBIs. Damon and Jeter are declining and if they get hurt losing that 1-2 on base machine means less value from Tex and ARod. The OF as constituted right now is less that average possibly- and I don’t buy that they are going to be a run-scoring machine. Will they have a good offense- almost definitely. Will it be a historic one? Little chance of that. Will it be an elite offense? Very possibly. But to me the Yankees have too many question marks, too little depth, and too many aging players to be declared a definitive favorite. Certainly is fair to say they are the favorites in the AL east, but they come in from a third place year- with a young and dangerous Rays squad, and a steady and strong Sox squad that will both be very very good- saying its defiantly the Yankees year is in no way based on reality.
Best/Worst Case Scenarios for standings. Best case is lots of injuries, assumed improvements don’t happen, drops from older players. Best case- all question marks were ok, no serious injuries, and players either improved or declined less than assumed.
TEAM- Best win-loss, worst win-loss, predicted win-loss (same as before)
BOS-102-60/85-77/95-67
NY- 105-57/82-80/92-70
TB- 98-64/78-84/88-74
TOR- 92-70/68-94/75-87
BAL- 75-87/62-100/68- 94
The Yanks have the potential to be the best if all goes right, but have more question marks and players that have to prove themselves than the Sox. The Sox have enough depth to stay close to contention in a failed year, but not enough overall talent to beat the Yanks if both do what they are capable of. TB at best isn’t what the Yanks or Sox are- they can’t be with the payroll- but they have money to spend and may get a Burrell or someone like it, and have so many good young players that they can find themselves in the WS again. Also, having so many young guys means they have a lot of what-ifs and thus have the potential to be worse than the Yanks or Sox bad years. TOR and BAL need to play TB, BOS, and NYY 18 teams each- that sucks. Hard to break .500 doing that but not impossible- at least for TOR. BAL has good young talent- but not enough to be thinking .500 quite yet- and in the off chance somehow they get near .500, it won’t matter because the other four AL east teams are quite good.
Bob, can you try again? I just fixed the issue. Thanks!
J.D. Drew, 2008 WARP3: 6.7
Jacoby Ellsbury, 2008 WARP3: 7.8
Who’s below average again, Sean? And you say you like Drew, right? Hey, let’s talk about the relative dollar value of their contracts? How much does Jacoby make? And how much does Drew make? And who’s the better bargain?
And that number is in large part due to Ellsbury’s defense, because his EqA was a very average .271 last year, while Drew’s was a very good .321. But clearly Jacoby’s defense is better than you give credit for, or Drew’s much worse, because in terms of overall value Ellsbury blew him away — even without much plate patience, which I hope he will develop somewhat as he matures.
Sorry, that was me. Not like you couldn’t have figured it out, though.
And I realized that Ellsbury almost 200 more AB’s than Drew, along with the subsequent extra time in the field. But I don’t really care. Not my fault that Drew can’t keep his ass on the playing field. I’m just making a point: in terms of overall value last year, we got more from Jacoby than from Drew.
I like Ellsbury’s defense, just think it’s overrated, and that he was the 2nd best defensive CF on his own club.
Obviously, Drew has a whole hell of a lot more ground to cover, since CF is small(ish) and RF is gigantic.
Nobody develops patience, and you know that. You either have that skill, or you don’t, and Ellsbury doesn’t.
He’s a terrible hitter, and I believe we need to find a real solution for CF, especially since we are so far below average in so many other positions.
Also, WARP is a pretty bad method of comparing players, since it includes the atrocious Davenport fielding system. Gomez is far ahead of Ellsbury in Zone Rating, while the Davenports have Ellsbury leading 119 to 110.
When you take the Fielding Bible, the only fielding stats I really care about, Gomez is #1 at +32, and Ellsbury isn’t even in the top 10, so he’s at best +7.
With that under consideration, Drew’s VORP of 32.4 dwarfs Ellsbury’s 16.1.
You don’t think Ellsbury’s excellent coverage in CF carries over to Drew in RF, making his job easier (in much the same way that ARod’s great defense at 3B turned Jeter into a Gold Glover by allowing him to concentrate on playing balls up the middle)?
I don’t think Ellsbury’s defense is going to allow Drew to shade far enough over to cover the largest RF in baseball, no.
My main opposition to Ellsbury being on the club is that we missed our opportunity last season. We knew he was a no-power, no-patience glove-and-speed guy, while last year people actually thought that .509 SLG was close to reality.
We should have traded him while his value was high, before the other 29 realized who he was. Like, you know, for that Santana guy.