This is the introduction to a three-part series on the Red Sox’s options for a fourth-outfielder.
Click the names to read the cases for each player…
Candidate 1: Rocco Baldelli
Candidate 2: Brad Wilkerson
Candidate 3: Eric Byrnes
With JD Drew, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury all under contract for 2009, the Red Sox starting outfield is set in stone before pitchers and catchers report. Unless you consider Jonathan Van Every, Chris Carter, or Jeff Bailey a long-term solution, the team still needs to acquire a fourth outfielder via free agency or trade. Needing to acquire a fourth outfielder may seem like an exercise in gluttony, but let’s be candid about our current situation. JD Drew has played 135 games or less seven times in his ten year career and the Red Sox can afford to pay above market on some spare parts to sit the bench.
In 2007, Eric Hinske and, to a lesser degree, Bobby Kielty, filled the role. Last year it was Coco Crisp, with Jacoby Ellsbury filling in on the corner spots when needed. In 2009, there are players available who could potentially exceed the production of the past two seasons from the fourth outfielder roster spot. Three specifically stand out to me, and none of these names should be a surprise if you’ve been following the hot stove season: Rocco Baldelli, Brad Wilkerson, and Eric Byrnes. The former two are free agents, the latter reportedly available in a salary dumping trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Before you go off on me (again) in the comments, let’s be realistic about why I chose these three candidates. Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell, and even Gabe Kapler are not going to come to Boston without a starting position. The Red Sox are not going to bench Jason Bay, JD Drew, or Jacoby Ellsbury, who will continue to roam center field at Fenway with a silver spoon attached to his mouth. That leaves two tiers of players, the second tier comprised of the Jerry Hairston, Jrs, Moises Alous, and Garrett Andersons of the world; worthless, old, or both. What’s left after you filter out the “never going to happens” and “never want to happens?” A slim tier one of available players.
As part of a three-day special, I am going to examine each of these candidates, starting today with Rocco Baldelli. If you feel there is an important player I have left out of my top three, I encourage you to write up a community post for a “fresh take” on your thoughts for the fourth outfielder role in 2009. I will link your post at the top of this article along with my three candidates!
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I don’t know why Jeff Bailey isn’t the 4th outfielder heir apparent. He had a monster year at Pawtucket!! What does he have to do to get a chance?? Youkilis never had a year as good as Bailey’s 2008 at Pawtucket. If Bailey were in the system of a team like the Royals he would have a job handed to him in spring training. The Sox gave up on Murphy and had a pretty good year for Texas, a year that would make him an “elite” 4th outfielder and Murphy never had a Bailey type year at Pawtucket either.
I wonder whether Bailey’s age is working against him and if so, why. I can remember when Wade Boggs lead the IL in hitting at .325 with only a few homers and Sox didn’t even put him on the 40 man roster and nobody claimed him. He only got a chance to play when Carney Lansford got injured, and the rest is history.
Glad you are tackling this Ryne. Building the bench this year is critical to getting to October . . . to maintain defensive excellence while adding elements like power bats to compensate for the loss of Teixeira, and possible offensive losses of Mike, Papi, JD. I agree that getting Dunn, etc. as 4th OF would be a miracle, though Gabe Kapler may want a re-run.
IMO, Jacoby’s silver spoon comment is questionable. One needn’t be an apologist to have high hopes for this guy. Barely out of AA he was arguably brought up too early just 14 months ago. Despite that he helped win the 2007 WS. His 2008 rookie year saw him adjust to adjustments and wind up with a .280 BA, 97R, lead the league in SB, and 3rd place for ROY. He is already considered among the premier defensive OF in all baseball (zero E’s in 3 positions from such an aggressive rookie fielder is amazing). If he hadn’t set such a high standard for himself in 2007, all but the most cynical would be singing his praises right now.
Bailey proved himself in 2008 as a 1b/OF, and in a smaller sample so did Carter. Neither are candidates for 4th OF, but would be decent 5th or 6th OF while providing plenty of firepower. Likewise, Jerry Hairston is viewed more a replacement for Alex Cora and as a 5th or 6th OF, a good bat and glove with max flexibility. I see Van Every as a decent approximation of Adam Dunn’s bat with Erik Hinske’s glove and speed. He gives Tito confidence that if Rocco has medical issues, still more good D and a big bat is a half hour away in R.I.
I hope you get time to pull together analysis of both the 1b/OF and IF/OF bench positions.
Agree with everything, except Van Every approximating Dunn’s bat, if he ever becomes a lock to hit 40 HR a year and has a career 130 OPS + I will lose my mind (with joy). I think the only question about Bailey or Carter as the 4th outfielder is the glove, ideally you want someone who can field multiple positions, Bailey’s versatility makes him a better option whereas Carter can really only play LF, he’s worse than awful as a first baseman. I’d be fine seeing how Bailey can do given the job, the other option I like is Baldelli, we have enough depth in Pawtucket (and Portland with Reddick maybe 2 years off) that we could deal with Rocco’s health history over a short contract.
I haven’t heard anything about Mark Kotsay. Not that he’s anything great with the bat, but he’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and even 1B. My first criterion in a fourth OF is defensive ability; offensively, all he has to do is contribute a little bit. The last thing we need is a Dunn/Burrell/Abreu type, especially with an everyday DH and a superior 1B already on hand.
Some commenters are talking about a fifth OF. That doesn’t happen anymore, with teams carrying 12 pitchers. In recent years, the Sox have carried four outfielders almost all the time. If they need another fill-in, they send for the Pawtucket Shuttle.
I just want to echo JVWALT in that Kotsay would be a great 4th outfielder/10th man and would rank ahead of Byrnes. Very intelligent and versatile as we saw in the ALCS. This provides depth and options at multiple positions with his 1B ability allowing Youk to move across the diamond. I was skeptical (very) during the playoffs but he played a great 1B. He is a great athlete.
Ryne, as far as I’m concerned you can start and stop with Rocco Baldelli and he is my opinion why. No.1, he is a righthanded hitter and two of the three starting Red Sox outfielders are lefthanded. He has power, a good arm and speed. Second, his mitochondria problems seems to be a thing of the past now that it has been correctly diagnosed, and 3, the guy is from New England and grew up a Red Sox fan. My take is that he would love to play for his home regional team.
Rocco has field, has good power and would be perfect in that 4th outfielder’s role because he wouldn’t get worn out playing a full schedule in case there is a residue of weakness from his prevous illness, and he would get enough playing time to keep him sharp. He also might be ready to have some big games for our Red Sox.
I say get him!!!!
I like Baldelli coming to town, he can play right field against tough lefties, and even though he has issues, there is still potential there for him to fill out.
http://statisticianmagician.mlblogs.com/
I like the idea of Baldelli coming to town as well but I am pretty sure he grew up a Yankee’s fan, not a red soxs fan. Either way, he would be a good option. I also like the first post by Jon, Jeff Bailey is definately getting overlooked, the redsox have a deep farm system and they should use it for more then just pitching help.
What about Adam Dunn as a first baseman and fourth outfielder? I agree Dunn is not gonna come as a bench player, but what if we make Lowell a part time player? He can be our new Coco, and in case of injury to Drew (it has to happen), we will have good inssurance.
I’m on the Kotsay bandwagon. He’s got all three outfield positions, plus 1B, covered. I would be more interested in Eric Byrnes if I knew he were healthy and he could help us get a young catcher (Montrero sp?).
Last year the Sox actually had a fifth OF in Kotsay, and before that Hinske. IMO we continue that tradition:
Rocco or Kapler replace Coco (4thOF),
Bailey, Kotsay or Millar replaces Kotsay (1b/5thOF),
Hairston’s versatility and reliable bat seems the best bet to replace AC/ Lugo, and as he is also a good outfielder, we wind up with IF/6thOF.
This allows Tito to use Rocco when he is healthy, because either Hairston or Bailey could step in. If JD goes down, a combination of all three plus Van Every can cover. Although he K’s alot, VE also had 26HR in those 300AB, and is a good defender.
Benches in the past have been very limited in their flexibility, and not much on power. This versatile bench covers all positions, hits well, fields well. Works for me.
Do you really need to make light of “putting on a Santa suit” and coming after you?
What if your friends or family were just butchered by a man in a Santa Suit, and you happen to come cross some joke of a writer making fun of it 5 days later?
Typical Boston fans.
BTW, congrats on getting mentioned in Rob Neyer’s ESPN Monday Mendoza’s today. Per usual, its clear that good writers come to Firebrand for intelligent posts and discussions/comments about Red Sox affairs.
Nice one Ryne and the rest of the Firebrand staff and commenters.
Marcos,
I am sorry. That line was inappropiate and has been removed.
Thank you for your understanding!
What the hell are you talking about Marcos?
Sean, I believe it was a reference to this:
Story Here
Perhaps it was edited before I read it, because I don’t remember the connection to the article.
This is what the so called writer originally wrote:
“Before you put on your Santa suit and come after me, let’s be realistic about why I chose these three candidates.”
And Sox fans wonder why the baseball world dislikes them more than Yankee fans…
Jeff Bailey is an OK defensive out fielder, I can see him playing Left field only on a semi-regular basis. CF and spacious RF at Fenway are out of this league. Decent bat, but we need someone who can play all 3 spots…. AKA Mark Kotsay??
A Red Sox “4th” outfielder is more like “3rd and a half”. Whoever it is will get ALOT of playing time, thanks to JD Drew. I wouldn’t feel 100% confident of his back being in great shape in 2009. Drew is good, when he’s good, but the injuries would worry me.
There’s no non-Boston player I’ve wanted to see succeed more than The Last Expo. Wilkerson was the one sign of hope in the post-Vlad year, but sadly fizzled after a breakout ‘04 season. I loved this guy back in my Montreal college days, and if Theo and crew find some upside I’d be jazzed to see Brad in a Sox jersey.
Baldelli is a better choice as far as the bat is concerned, though, and apparently his condition is actually not nearly as bad as the original diagnosis showed. Given his demonstrated potential, he looks like the kind of low-risk high-reward signing we like to make.
Teams never let young kids be 4th outfielders, it stops their growth. if drew gets hurt and misses a month or two, yeah then bring a kid up to fill in for him, but dont bring him up to play once a week
The Giants have a strong interest in Manny Raimerez and would need to deal an outfielder. Aaron Rowand would be an ideal fit at Fenway park. He would get plenty of playing time because of Drew’s injury history and Ellsbury’s inconsistancy. Randy Winn would be a good fit also……
The Sox should sign Kotsay and Rocco…
The Sox need another outfielder…one that hits with power, a decent average and with reasonable likelihood of being healthy when needed. None of the candidate’s mentioned fill that bill. As talented as Jacoby Ellsbury is defensively his bat is mediocre at best. Short of finding an above-average offensive catcher (Doumit, Napoli, Ianzatta…good luck with that!) or starting shortstop (Theo’s manlove for his prospects and Lugo’s albatross contract spells fat chance there) the outfield need is for a solid, well-balanced STARTING center fielder. At this point Ellsbury is just a supersub…good glove, nice to have off the bench and easy on the budget but a liability for run production until his OBP gets better. Hanley Ramirez was intriguing, so is Holliday. One thing’s for sure, with three weak- to-average bats in the starting lineup (Ellsbury, Varitek/Bard?, Lowery/Lugo) and maybe more if injuries recur the Sox will be no better than the third best offensive club in their division. Smells like a bridesmaid’s year to me.
i think we should trade lowell and get a player or players in return and the the 4th outfielder will be jeff bailey
I think we will definitely see Bailey as a bench player next year, but the club probably likes him more as a 1B and not as much as an outfield solution. Right now our four bench slots are Bard, Lugo, and two open. Bailey plus a more versatile outfielder fill that opening nicely.
Drew can play center and free agents M. Bradley and A. Dunn are both good offensively, can play RF adequately and only cost money and one or two draft picks (the latter not a killer considering the Sox are rich and have a well-stocked farm system). Ellsbury can back up all three and will get plenty of playing time in late innings/during injuries until his bat catches up to his glove (crossed fingers). Ship an in-demand ML ready young pitcher (Buch, Bowden) with a prospect or two for a good young catcher to go with Bard and you’ve filled two of the three offensive holes in the starting lineup without any major losses. Suddenly you’ve upgraded run production without agonizing over which mediocre backup outfielder you need to acquire to make your offense, well, still mediocre.
Byrnes, Baldelli, Wilkerson… they may be nice guys and viable backup choices for average teams with average goals, but for teams wanting to contend they’re just more roster spots waiting for another place to take up space.