Note: This is part three of a three part series on the Red Sox fourth outfielder role for 2009. Click here for more information and links to the other candidates for the position from Fire Brand’s writers and community.
Concluding our series on the fourth outfielder today is Eric Byrnes, the erstwhile outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unlike the first two candidates, Byrnes is not a free agent, but Arizona has given indications he would be available for a team willing to take his contract. Let’s take a look at Byrnes as a fourth outfielder candidate. First off, why would an up and rising team like Arizona want to unload a 32 year old outfielder who can play all three positions and just two years ago finished 11th in MVP voting? Clearly, it’s because the Diamondbacks are run by the United States Congress.
Google the phrase ‘cash strapped diamondbacks’ and on the first page alone you’ll find matches from 2002, 2004, 2007, and 2008; Arizona has been broke since they last won the World Series in 2001. Yet somehow, Arizona not only continues to survive (without a bailout, imagine that!), but spend more money they don’t have, just like a certain group of people working on a hill in our nation’s capital. What’s another couple billion when you’re already a trillion in the hole right? Same concept applies to the ball club, just on a smaller scale.
Which brings us back to Byrnes, who after his MVP-ish season in 2007, was rewarded with a back-loaded three year, $30 million dollar contract. After spending most of last year mending two torn hamstrings for $6 million, Byrnes is due $11 million a year in each 2009 and 2010, meaning now is the time for the Diamondbacks to unload the fan favorite.
The odds are good that we’ve seen everything that Byrnes is capable of doing at this point, but looking at his career numbers are interesting. There is an upward trend from 2003 to 2004, then his numbers dropped in 2005 as he was traded twice in one season. Then, in 2006 to 2007, another upward trend, before his injury plagued 2008 dropped him down again. Which Byrnes is real? The one that hits .280 with 20-25 homers and 25-50 stolen bases, or the one that hits a few ticks above .250; Bill James and Marcel projections favor the latter as they peg Byrnes at .257 and .260, respectively, in 2009.
At first glance, Eric Byrnes is a very average player who had a career year in 2007. His career isolated power is a very average .160, his career walk-to-strikeout ratio is a very average 0.47. Digging deeper, his career on-base percentage is .325, compared to a league average of .330 and his line drive percentage a very average 19.1% for his career. So the question remains, why would a team like Arizona, that can’t make mistakes with big contracts, reward such an average player for a career year with a contract they aren’t able to afford?
One metric stands out to me that might indicate Byrnes’ 2007 wasn’t an aberration, but more of what should be expected of him. Batting Average of Balls in Play is not meant to be heavily leaned upon as an indicator of a player’s potential, at least not in my interpretation of the formula used. Nevertheless, I am fascinated by it and the manipulations we can create by comparing and recalculating statistics with adjustments to a player’s BABIP.
The chart below shows Byrnes’ League Average BABIP Adjusted Batting Average. Basically, I took the league average of a .300 BABIP and applied it to Byrnes’ career batting averages. I did not include the first three partial years of his career for simplicity sake, but now Byrnes becomes a career .272 hitter instead of a .256 hitter, with just league average luck.
Reading too much into numbers? Probably, but it does lend credence to the belief that 2004 and 2007 may not be his exceptions but, instead his expected production. Suddenly, in a fourth outfielder role, Eric Byrnes fields three positions well, hits for average, hits for power, steals bases, and becomes very valuable addition to any team.
Hopefully by now I’ve convinced you that a) I’m crazy, b) I have too much time on my hands, c) Byrnes would be a great addition, or d) all of the above. So what would it take to get him, and would it make sense for the organization? At first, the discussions between the two clubs involved swapping Julio Lugo for Byrnes, but then Arizona signed Felipe Lopez (Lugo would have played 2nd for the D’backs) and lost interest in Lugo. The new deal being thrown around would involve parting ways with Michael Bowden to receive Eric Byrnes and catching prospect Miguel Montero. I’ll spend some time breaking down that trade in another article; but at least know that it’s on the table for now.
That wraps up the three part series on potential Sox fourth outfielders for 2009. I’m anxious to hear from the community regarding their opinions: Who is best for the job? Are we better off filling the role through free agency or trade? Finally, Happy New Year to all our readers! Thanks for a great 2008!
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Ryne, isn’t Burns the guy that does a somersault when he throws to the plate?
P.S. Yes, I am the snarky one who comments on the intangibles (tattoos, somersaults) that people should consider before supporting any player!
Ryne,
The problem we’ve got going here is that BABIP for batters, as opposed to that of pitchers, can’t simply be said to normalize at .300. Many different factors go into a hitter’s BABIP, and each hitter has a different expected number. There is no league average number you can translate it to. THT did an excellent piece on this recently. Byrnes’ numbers cannot be scaled up like you do, leaving him as a 32 year old whose value is prmarily in his speed, coming off of two torn hamstrings. Making $22 million the next two years. Yikes.
Not enough on base ability to be more valuable then a one year Rocco signing and no guarantee he stays any healthier given his track record. Also, I believe he was pretty pissed about his diminished playing time in Arizona, even dealing with his injuries. If it was a situation where we ate his contract for 2 years and the DBacks added a b-level prospect for doing so then I might be persuaded. That may sound ridiculous for them to add a prospect to get us to take the contract but corner outfielders like Abreau are looking like there gonna have to settle for one year deals for around what Byrnes makes.
Cleveland just got Derosa from Chicago…they are going to win the Central in 2009 (they were my pick before DeRosa). Anyone notice that Shin Soo Choo put up a near .950 ops last year in 300 at bats? Dude is generously listed at 5′11, 175 lbs. I knew he played well last year but didn’t realize he was that good. I doubt he gets near that mark in 2009 but that is still surprising.
Please God no to Byrnes. I don’t see much worth in him at all as a player (certainly no more than Baldelli) and he’s just such an insufferable asshat. That contract is awful, the park in Arizona and a weak division have masked his ineptness over the years, he can field all the outfield positions but none of them well, him and Damon could have a girly-throwing contest, he has no power, he’s annoying. Maybe I’m being over-critical, but I just HATE Eric Byrnes. I was really disappointed after the Teixeira debacle (although Bard and Penny were in my opinion encouraging), but if Eric Byrnes joins the Red Sox I’ll just stop paying attention.
I’m with Bob on this one. The stats back me up, I believe, but sometimes you just have to trust your gut. I’ve strongly disliked Byrnes ever since the 2003 ALDS. I vividly recall him trying to score the tying run while Varitek blocked the plate and tagged him out. Byrnes slides into Tek’s shinguard and then jumps up on one leg and gives him a feeble girlie push as he hops back to the dugout. Here’s how Todd Walker describes it (taken from http://www.tek33.com/gallery/cpg143/thumbnails.php?album=34):
“I get a kick out of that (play at the plate) because here’s this major league player Byrnes, supposed to be this big, tough guy, and he slides in and he’s hobbling like some sniper got him. And he doesn’t touch homeplate, isn’t worried about going back and touching it again, and Varitek goes to get the ball and Byrnes pushes him. I don’t know if he was in the right frame of mind there because if Varitek puts him in the ’scissors’ with those big thighs he’s got, he’ll snap him in half! It was just a humorous thing to me, but in the grand scheme of things, it made the difference in the game.”
Arizona not only continues to survive (without a bailout, imagine that!), but spend more money they don’t have
Those days ended with the departure of Jerry Colangelo after 2004. The team is now strictly living within its budget – which explains the ‘cash-strapped’ references, and why they couldn’t offer Randy Johnson more than $3m.
On the trade front, perhaps of significance is that we signed front-line catcher Chris Snyder to a long-term contract extensions, apparently inking him as the #1 for the foreseeable future. But if you can take Byrnes off our hands, we’d be very, very grateful. It’d only be fair having given you Curt, after all… :-)
Interesting article, Ryne. Bynes is certainly not my first option, but if we have to take him to get Montero, maybe he worth a closer look.
Mike – thanks for pointing me toward that article. xBABIP is very interesting!! I’ve downloaded the excel sheet and will be using it as a reference, appreciate the help!
The problem with a lot of these guys is, they’re good enough to be regulars — or at least, to aspire to be regulars. They’re not likely to be happy as #4s, even in a situation where they get a lot of ABs.
Byrnes couldn’t directly control this, since he’d come here in a trade — but if he got moved to Boston, he’d probably bitch up a storm a la Jay Payton. Baldelli, if he’s healthy, will certainly want the chance to prove he can be a full-time contributor, even if he has to do it on a second-division club.
And if I were one of them, I’d feel the same way. Look: a regular outfielder who has a good year (like Byrnes in 2007) can expect a multi-year contract that will set him up for life. But someone who’s cast as a fourth outfielder can expect a series of one-year deals at a much lower pay rate, and can also expect to bounce around the major leagues from year to year.
So we shouldn’t aim too high for a fourth outfielder. We’re more likely to settle for a perennial Quad-A type (Jeff Bailey) or a pure defender.
Your fine writing has convinced me that Rocco is our best choice for 4th OF, assuming he is healthy enough to play frequently (notice I didn’t say regularly), and assuming a good bat like Jeff Bailey, at 1b/5thOF, can cover for him on bad days, especially in RF.
I am convinced that Bailey’s big bat will make important contributions this season, moreso than Mark Kotsay’s glove. Both Baldelli and Bailey could be huge signings for the Sox this year in replacing OBP and Power from Manny/Teix/injured players.
Ryne, could you put this kind of analysis together for Lugo or Cora vs. Hairston vs. Bloomquist (Boras client)? vs. maybe my man Joe Thurston??? Seems to me if this person can play IF and OF, and hit well, the Baldelli signing gets even better, and the loss of Teix grows less significant.
Eric Byrnes is worthless