January 3, 2009 at 12:31 PM
What's the Problem?!?!?!
I am appalled at all the panic, finger pointing, and accusations (even Amalie sounds negative about 2009), sky is falling attitude among Sox Nation; and perturbed at the number of 'fans' who are calling to dump our legendary players, and empty our farm system for big name trades, and to outspend the Yankees. Win at all costs, now. After decades of following the Sox, to hear such negativity about this Camelot of a team is, to put it politely, stupid. The Sox FO, Tito, the players must be shaking their heads in wonder, after all this team and these players have accomplished; or perhaps they are just learning to ignore the fanbase entirely. Loyalty goes two ways.
We wanted key upgrades. We got them. I am increasingly confident about the Red Sox offseason moves. Theo has taken care of most of the identified needs for 2009, as well as planned for the future, and done so in clever ways: Penny, RRamirez and Bard are wonderful signings. Tazawa, Littleton, Gonzales and 5 other signings are equally wonderful, and could pay off soon, and at the very least add significant depth throughout the system..
The Sox NEEDED four upgrades: a 4th potential Ace, an 8th inning set up guy, a catcher with a big bat, and power off the bench.
Brad Penny is a 4th potential Ace, allowing Buchholz and Bowden to mature and Masterson to stay in the Pen. His short term deal blocks no one, and gives Tito a guy who must prove himself in Boston if he wants to stay in baseball. If he is does, he wins 15G. If he is done, we have young studs ready to step up. If AJ or CC get hurt, which is equally likely despite the quarter billion dollar contracts, where do the Yankees turn? Is Theo finished at SP? Probably not. If only DLowe would be reasonable. 5/90? Sorry, Scott.
RRammi is a proven young set up guy, which takes pressure off MDC & Oki. I had hoped for Fuentes or Street, but RRammi is comparable, could become better, is younger, cost-effective, and Theo got Coco a starting job on a rebuilding team where he will truly shine, as he deserves.
Josh Bard offers the most high side. His pre-injury offensive stats are excellent. He is a good defender. He seems ready to rock. I see him platooning with Tek if he comes back, or Shoppach if he doesn't. I also see him mentoring Salty, TG or Monte; and I see him starting, with power hitting Kottaras, catching Wake, maybe Zinc. Whatever unfolds here, and Theo is working on all scenarios at once, Bard's versatility and considerable offense and defense is perfect for this slot. Will Tek be back? C'mon Scott, Wake up!!! 3/45? Look at Posada! Any takers for our Captain?
Do the Sox still need a big bat in the lineup? I never thought this team needed Teix, or Bradley, Fielder or Dunn, etc. enough to take on their downsides. IMO, if properly structured, catching and the bench could provide .280/40/100, more than compensating for any shortfall in the Bay/Manny equation. The FACT is that the Sox have been one of the top hitting teams in MLB for several years, including last year's injury plagued season. The only way this will fail to be. again, among the most powerful lineups will be if all of Ells, Ped, JD, Papi, Youk, Bay, Lowell, Lowrie underperform, and we have no bats at C or the Bench. Such a collapse could happen, to any team, but not this gritty team, not this critical year, as they have too much to prove.
Is this pie in the sky? Not at all. It is based on the historical record of this team, and ongoing solution of its identified problems. This opinion surprises even me (considering all the doom and gloom which I have been reading out there) but IMO, this has been a great offseason for the Red Sox, maintaining a determined, close-knit, team with world class defense and offense, which starts 2009 with, so far, improved SP, improved RP, improved C.
Discussion
16 Comments on "What's the Problem?!?!?!"
#1
Posted by Nick, January 3, 2009 4:43 PM
"Wonderful" signings? "Clever ways"? "a great offseason for the Red Sox"?
Gerry you're as fanatical going the other way as those you chastize for being too negative. While I agree that certain elements of Red Sox nation are whiney and always seeing the glass half empty you're overboard in the other direction. You sleep with Theo's picture on your nightstand don't you?
I like the Penny signing alot. Big upside for little money. Bard is a back-up C and nothing more. We still don't have a # 1 catcher and if Tek comes back guess what?? We STILL don't have a # 1 catcher. (It's only January 3rd!) I'll believe the hype on Ramirez when I see it on the field. Funny how in a pitching/bullpen starved league we never heard his name mentioned in trade talks with any team during the pennant chase last year. Now we're supposed to believe this 27 yr old on his 4th team is a great set-up guy? Hmmm... Believe it when I see it. Btw I know Coco had to be moved but we're going to miss him bigtime next season.
It's January 3rd and the Red Sox have little and mediocre catching, no 4th (actually it's 3A & 3B outfielders since JuD Drew is a part-time player and the jury is still out on Jacoby Ellsbury as a full-time player) outfielder, no bench and no extra power bat.
This has not been an impressive off-season by any measure just as last years wasn't.
Count me as one who's tired of the fawning over and overrating of one Mr. Theo Epstein.
If Lucchino doesn't pull the trigger on the Beckett/Lowell for Hanely Ramirez trade after Theo took his hissy fit and left in gorila garb the Red Sox don't win it all in '07 and Theo's legacy has a very different look to it right now.
Let's try a bit 'o reality here Gerry. This team has genuine holes and Theo's attempting to patch them with 25 cent on the dollar fixes.
#2
Posted by Dante, January 4, 2009 1:39 AM
I also think you were a tad too overboard in your praise of some of the players mentioned. But i agree 100% with your overall premise...
With relative good health, the Sox will continue to be an OPS machine in 2009, they have an excellent defensive club, and one of the top 2 or 3 top-to-bottom pitching staffs in baseball...
anyone who disagrees with any of the above statements just doesnt get it...
Bottom line, the Sox havent had a huge offseason to this point (though i still think theyll make one more semi-major move, along with bringing back Tek), but they didnt need to...this is a team that won a world championship in 07 and lost an epic ALCS in 08...theyll be very, very good again in 2009.
as far as the Theo Epstein bashing...all i can say is wow. the guy makes great free agent pickups and trades to get us our first World Series in 86 years, then with that goal accomplished, takes a more longterm vision and builds the best player development organization in baseball that directly leads to another WS title 3 yrs later and has the team set on cruise control for the next 10 years...
name another team that has routinely picked at the bottom of the draft that has had as much draft success as the sox...
the sad thing is, for all our enthusiasm, Boston baseball fans are still largely reactive and irrational...ah well, at least smart fans can really appreciate what a Golden Age of Red Sox baseball this really is
SOX IN 09!
#3
Posted by Nick, January 4, 2009 8:10 AM
It's not Theo bashing to point out the shortcomings of his job performance. I've never seen a fanbase of any team in any sport fawn over a front office guy like many Sox fans fall all over themselves in blind praise of Theo.
It's weird!
"and has the the team set on cruise control for the next 10 years"?
Really? Might want to put that kool-aid down and take another look at that roster. The power is aging and there is little to be found down on the farm, there are no catchers, the ace of the staff Josh Beckett was signed for short money but will seek his own personal market correction for a megabucks deal after his club option is picked up in 2010. (Sox going to meet Beckett's demand for his one big career payday by signing him for huge dollars and long years? - Doubt it!) Better hope Dan Bard turns into Pap II because it's clear from his prior comments and demeanor (re: his contract status) that Jonathan Papelbon will never settle for short money to stay in Boston. Never! Dice is a nice all be it an expensive 5 inning pitcher but not an ace, Lester is an ace in waiting, Bucholtz has shown himself to be a highly talented headcase, I like Bowden alot and think he's a bulldog with a good major league career ahead of him, fans have Lars Anderson in Cooperstown already though he's never done anything above AA and we all love Youk but he's a late bloomer and most fans don't realize he's turning 30 years old in March.
You're right we're on cruise control for the next 10 years. LOL
#4
Posted by B, January 4, 2009 10:18 AM
Limited few, so politely called "stupid" fans, spend any time here at FBotAL. Very few on this site have suggested trading the "legendary" David Ortiz or Josh Beckett. Many have "intelligently questioned" what production the Sox will get from them next season. Aside from those two, what other "legendary players" have been so besmirched as to have appalled you? Mike Lowell? Even 95% of those here who favored signin Tex were careful to say they appreciated what he'd done here. But he's hardly a Sox legend.
The Red Sox only NEED this off-season was to aquire a starting catcher. Theo still has not done that. Josh Bard....versatile, starter, mentor, good bat (.202 20pts. lower than Varitek last year)...WOW! That's about as rosey an outlook as I've ever heard.
The Sox could have promoted Bucholtz or Bowden or moved Masterson from the pen to fill the 4/5 starter position. As fervently as some opposed signing Tex for fear of blocking Lars, I was opposed to giving even a 2-3yr deal to an overpriced 4/5 starter for fear of blocking the aforementioned 3 farm products, all which are closer to ready than Lars. To me, this was the least pressing issue they had to face. I find Penny an adequate signing for it's one year term. Upside yes. Downside overlooked. The source of his shoulder problems have not been discovered and may still be there. He pitched very little last year in the NL with no effectiveness.
I find one thing very odd on this site. There are people here who have no regard for 80+ years of commonly accepted baseball philisophy regarding the structuring of a line-up. You even ignore Papi's own words on the issue. Papi needs more protection than the current line-up provides. You can use high OBP to make the upper and lower half of the order more productive, but not the middle. Teams play the the shift against him, and without a ligit #4 hitter they will pitch around him. For those who think Papi will overcome the shift, his injury, his age and physique, and the lack of protection behind him, to come back and 40-50HRs, you're dreaming. A mere 2 inches in location can mean the difference between a whiff or contact, a ground ball and a line drive, a pop-up and a deep fly. This is the game pitchers were able to play with him last year. It's the game they'll play again this year. He didn't make the statement as a slight to his other team mates. He was envisioning another year of pitches on or just off the corners. The Sox missed on Teixeira and there is nobody else out there. Take a look at young FA power bats coming into free agency over the next 3yrs at mlb4u.com. There are none.
Matt Holliday and Jason Bay may be the best young bats coming into free agencey over the next 3yrs. They may also have the best bats. Can anyone here tell me what team needs to repair an aging outfield in the next few years? Correct! The Yankees. Trading Ellsbury seems nearly out of the question when you look at that. How are the Sox going to address a young catcher of the future and a power bat? I'm not sure.
The Sox will be competitive with the current team. But to paint such a rosey picture of the Sox offseason to this point seems way off the mark. It won't take a huge slide in prodution from Youk and Pedrioa to leave this team in trouble. And with the great seasons they had last year a small slide would be no embarrassment to either player.
Hope your flu clears up. Drink plenty of liquids. That's one thing Kool-Aid is good for.
#5
Posted by M.A.G, January 4, 2009 10:22 AM
I don't hate Theo, but I'm not satisfied with his job this offseason. He has taken the more secure, and, in some cases, the most mediocre, options to improve the team. We needed an starter, and he got Penny and not Sheets. We need a catcher and he signs Bard, instead of a truly high-quality player.
I'm not saying this moves are absolutely wrong (actually I like Penny), but we have a team with enormous resources in money and prospects, and I wonder why we are not filling the holes with the best options available. Theo is just playing safe, and playing cheap. And I simply don't see any reason to be excited about that.
#6
Posted by B in reply to comment from B, January 4, 2009 10:22 AM
meant Bay and Holliday may be the best OF's and power bats.
#7
Posted by Matt T, January 4, 2009 12:21 PM
It hasn't been a fun offseason, but the people who say the sky is falling are crazy.
The team is set up nicely at every position but catcher, and possibly shortstop, depending on what you think of Lowrie. I still think Ellsbury is going to be an excellent leadoff hitter; you're getting power production from second base; they'll probably re-sign Bay; Youk can move to third in a few years, and there's Lars behind him. Drew is getting older, but Reddick is coming up to take his place. In the rotation you have Bowden, Buchholz, Tazawa and Hagadone coming soon, Price, Fife and Weiland coming after that, and Kelly down the road. Assuming that Lester and Matsuzaka can anchor the staff and one or two of those young pitchers pans out, the team is mostly set in the rotation and in the lineup. And as far as the bullpen goes, they'll almost certainly stick with Paps until he hits free agency, then turn it over to Masterson or Bard; either way they've got enough arms there to get it done.
Will there be year-to-year ups and downs in their performance? Will the team have periodic issues like the current hole at catcher, or a shortstop like Lugo who doesn't pan out? Sure. Maybe some years they win 91 games instead of 95. A disaster might hit and it might be 88 or 87.
But the Sox as an organization seem pretty well set up to compete year-in, year-out to me. So they missed on Teixeira -- I don't see that as a catastrophe. What's more important is that they seem to have a coherent plan. Even if that plan is, "Rely on our own home-grown talent and subsidize the roster occasionally with free-agents the Yankees turn down," that doesn't seem like such a bad plan. Personally I think the Yankees are always going to have a problem if they keep relying on free agent talent, even great free agent talent -- that strategy is going to leave them relying on guys who at best are in their early thirties. You need contributing stars in their mid- to late twenties to win in this league.
Teixeira would have been nice, but this isn't the end of the world.
#8
Posted by Gerry, January 4, 2009 1:07 PM
Dear B. Yikes. Please note that I began this piece by saying I was cruising the Internet where I found so much negativity. I don't cruise Firebrand, I visit, because it is essentially a positive and constructive site, and negative opinions are usually backed by fact and well considered opinion. Please also note that the Sox needed more than C this year. Their hitting was superior to most of MLB. Their pitching, rotation and pen, was not. Whatever you think of Tek, he IS a Sox legend and his peers voted him to the AS Game. Let me restate.
With MAG, I wanted CC or Sheets more than Teixeira, wrote a post against signing AJ, and am happy we got Penny. He is a genuine improvement and, even if injured, he should buy time for Buchholz and Bowden to develop, who could be better than Penny or Sheets.
It's not just the Sox who haven't filled out their team yet. Dozens of top FA's are still awaiting offers. Everyone in the game is fairly stunned by this. Part of the problem is Boras and his clones driving prices to the stratosphere in an awful economy. Imagine, yesterday telling the Mets they need to come up with $16M per year for Lowe "just to get into the game." Just say no, Omar. Let Wormtongue wither.
My 1st choice for C, with or without Tek, is Shoppach, as he is established and can hit 20+HR, which the Sox will need. I like Salty, et al, but they are far less ready than Bard or Kelly to run a team if Tek doesn't return. That said, Bard, aside from his injured 2007, is a good hitter and defender. Good move by Theo. The Non-Guaranteed contract leaves all options still open. If Tek returns, wouldn't he and Bard be capable of 20+HR?, and wouldn't this leave Buchholz and Bowden in Pawtucket, whom we WILL need this year . . . oh, yes, and also Masterson, Ells and Lowrie will be given a chance to develop as Red Sox. What a silly thing to hope for.
My first choice for 8th inning guys have been Fuentes, Marte and Street. Why so hard on RRamirez? His #'s are excellent, and so what if he was under the Radar in the Royals Pen? Sure he could bomb. So could any RP. With RRammi and Masterson in the 8th, and OKI & MDC 6th & 7th, this Pen is far, far stronger than the last few years. Or should we bring back Tavarez, Hansen, Corey, Snyder, etc.?
I agree that the Sox need to bring in power, and believe that in the short term this power can and should come from C, the Bench, Bay, and some return to average by a healthy Papi, Lowell, JD. If you don't trust these vets, there is power out there right now with Dunn, Bradley, etc. if this is what the Sox need now. I don't think they do. My opinion. And there is power coming up with Anderson, Reddick and others. Mauer, Holliday and other big bats will be available in the next couple of years . . . this year if Boras sees a chance to profit. This is not kool aid, this is all fact.
Do you really see this balanced Red Sox team NOT having one of the best MLB rotations, pens, defenses, offenses, cohesiveness in 2009? And again contend for the WS?
If not, try some of my flu medicine.
#9
Posted by Dante in reply to comment from Nick, January 4, 2009 7:00 PM
Obviously, there will always need to be moves made to be made to replenish, upgrade your rorster over time...the sox brass has shown the ability and committment to do so since theyve been at the job...i thought i was dealing with rational people and that part of my statement was understood
This team is in excellent position to be one of the top 5 organizations in baseball for the next 10 years...thats is what i meant by cruise control, not that the club could go on as currently constituted for 10 years and be effective...obviously
#10
Posted by Dante, January 4, 2009 7:12 PM
I just find it weird that, in the wake of the Yanks signings, a lot of Sox fans are CONSTANTLY chirping about what little the sox dont have rather than talk about how much firepower and talent the club does have...no team is perfect and there will always be areas of concern...but a lot of sox fans are being very manipulative in their criticism of the team...focusing on negatives and assuming every question mark will turn out as badly as possible...it just doesnt make sense to me, especially given the experience, leadership and character of the Sox
i mean...Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Penny, Wake, Buchholz, Bowden....with no exaggeration at all, thats probably the best group of starting pitchers on any roster in baseball
a lineup of
1. Ellsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Youkilis
5. Drew
6. Bay
7. Lowell
8. Lowrie
9. Varitek/Bard
Teixeira or no Teixeira, thats still a very strong lineup with excellent patience and pop...i really think people are overracting to last year's ALCS...the rays' pitching was very good, they have quality power arms like the Sox...it is what it is. If the Sox are in the same position again next year, ill take their chances
I mean, if you look really hard you can come up with a bunch of reasons why the sox might struggle...but to me, i think its a lot easier to see why the sox might be really good
#11
Posted by Matt T, January 4, 2009 8:48 PM
I think the issue here is whether the Sox are being cheap or not. That hasn't been their m.o. traditionally, but maybe it should have been. Looking back, if you had said that they should have just plugged in a stopgap between Renteria/Gonzo and Lowrie instead of signing Lugo, you'd have been right. If you'd said they should have held on to their prospects instead of dealing for Coco Crisp, you might have been right. They're in a situation here where they might need a power hitter, a catcher, and a starter. Should they deal away Clay Buchholz or someone like that to get Saltalamacchia, or should they just wait it out until Wagner or Exposito is ready? Should they sign Ben Sheets instead of relying on Bowden and Buchholz to get it done? Should they deal away prospects for someone like Hanley Ramirez or J.J. Hardy, just to make a big move?
After getting burned with Shoppach, Lugo, Gagne, etc., I can definitely understand why they might want to just hold their cards and see what happens before making a panic move. They have lots of young talent coming up -- why not just hold on to it and get by with stopgap, one-year types like Penny and Tek (this year) until their young guys grow into their jobs? Why not see if Lowrie can be a plus offensive shortstop and see if Buchholz can turn it around before you go making crazy moves just to make them? That's especially true when you know the team you have is at least a winning team already. Maybe the answers are already on the roster; if not, you'll still be close enough midseason to make your moves then.
#12
Posted by B in reply to comment from Gerry, January 4, 2009 10:53 PM
If you want answers to the questions you posed in your reply to my comments, go back and reread my second to last paragraph. You obviously missed it or chose to ignore it.
As far as NEED, they are returning every position player from last year's team except catcher. That is what I meant. All other moves are tweaking.
But let's look at the only position needing to be filled. If Bard is such a wonderful player why has he only played more than 100 games 1 time in his career? 118 games with a .285 average and 5HRs in 389ABs. It's easier to see 07' as a fluke than the rest of his career. And that's all we have right now. Do I think Theo won't get another catcher before the season starts? Of course not. But you wrote this glowing review NOW. By the way, I inadvertantly forgot Varitek. Any debate on his status as a Sox legend aside, how could you possibly be perturbed by a prevelant belief he has become a liability rather than an asset. He can't hit or gun down Ed Slowsky on a pitch-out anymore. If the Sox go into 09' with Varitek/Bard it will be a colossal failure to improve the one position of TRUE NEED.
As far as the starting rotation, yes they have the same formidible top three with Wakefield as a solid dependable 4/5. They only NEEDED a 4/5 type on a short contract which they got. I'm sure I supported the Penny signing in my comments. But let me restate, the COULD HAVE filled from within.
Then you agree they need a power bat and suggest they get it from the as of yet not completed catching position, or the as of yet not aquired bench players, or the 'if they're healthy veterans'. Dunn and Bradley would have no position to play on this team. Neither is a defensive upgrade at any position, and they can't protect Papi if they're going to DH, that's what Papi does here. And Jason Bay was being exploited by the outside breaking pitch at the end of the season, will that continue? There is nothing in any of your reply to this other than wishful thinking. That's a fact! And all the minor leaguers you mentioned won't have their rookie seasons for 2yrs and be effective ML'ers for 3-4yrs, at which time, half of the current core may be on the way out. And the FA's coming up will fill out the Yankee's outfield and replace Posada quite nicely.
My comments were in regards to this off-season not the 09' season. Again, reread my second to last paragraph. At best, this off-season deserves an incomplete grade to this point. That's my opinion. That is, unless the heading of your article was merely a rhetorical question, and nobody was supposed to have another opinion.
#13
Posted by Gerry, January 5, 2009 8:44 PM
Really, B, you should try some of my flu medicine. It's pretty mellow, though I threw away my rose colored glasses years ago. I do, however, tend to see the cup as half full where possible, as it is now with this excellent team.
I re-read the paragraph you cited, and would certainly agree that a huge slide by either Youk or Pedroia would hurt, but felt that this could be offset by probable improvements, at least to their career averages, of Mike and Papi, 140G from JD, projected years by Bay, Ells and Jed, and bigger bats from C & Bench. I would be surprised if either experienced a dramatic slide, as they are trending the opposite.
Just as you wanted me to re-read that paragraph, please re-read my post. IMO, in the short term, increased power should come from C and the Bench. Bradley, etc., are available as replacements. I don't want to sign them, but they are available. I mentioned two (2) minor leaguers, Anderson & Reddick, as future sources of power. Lighten up.
I agree with you that his off-season (which defines success in the 2009 season) deserves an incomplete grade at this point. You will find the same with every team in this strange offseason. We also agree, I think, that Penny, Bard, RRammi, Tazawa, Gonzales, Littleton, McBeth, McAnulty, Traber, etc. represent a pretty good start at filling many holes; and that with Cash gone, and Byrd, Timlin, Casey, Cora, Kotsay still FA, indicates that Theo is seriously looking for ways to upgrade C and the Bench, and find more arms,
#14
Posted by MohawksRgay, January 5, 2009 10:01 PM
We were truly spoiled to have such a quality 4th outfielder as Coco. That's a role that I see will need to be addressed given the suspect health of one JD Drew, not to mention that its just good strategy to carry 4 capable outfielders in any case! I don't know that I'd be truly thrilled with bringing back Kotsay, although I did appreciate his flexibility. Just wasn't thrilled with his production at the plate. Certainly no one thinks Theo will go out and dump money on one of these draft pick sucking big money free agent outfielders. any thoughts on what might happen here (as I'm growing weary of the catcher dilemma)?
#15
Posted by MohawksRgay, January 5, 2009 10:42 PM
I'm with what a guy said on a different post about how "I'll believe it when I see it" about RamRam. I don't know that I'm ok with anointing him the 8th inning guy.
I'd like to see Evan or Tim or even Gerry get a thread going about Theo. It would be nice to get some ideas out there and see what the consensus point of view is among firebranders about Theo's performance. I'm a Theo-guy. So I'm curious to get all the opinions in here about it.
#16
Posted by B in reply to comment from MohawksRgay, January 6, 2009 4:02 AM
My opinion on Theo:
Average. That's my opinion on most GM's. Go back and look at some of the players he TRIED TO aquire that didn't pan out, and add them to the group he DID aquire that didn't pan out. On the other side he has brought in some players that have been key components to success. Overall, I feel he's broken even.
One thing I hold as a knock against him, though not his fault, is the fact his employer has deep pockets. I hold that against GM's of all big market teams. It undeniably puts him in an easier spot than mid and small market GM's. Just look at Cashman in NY. Mid and small market teams can't miss on an $8-12M contract and not suffer. (see Julio Lugo /Curt Schilling 08')
Theo deserves credit for steadfastly protecting the young assests. He hasn't traded them in any knee-jerk reaction or error in judgement. But building a productive farm system is common sense. And he hasn't done it all on his own. Luchino, James, Henry and others have been in baseball for some time and have all surely had a hand in identifying scouts and development personel. But he gets good grades in this area.
He signed Schill over a turkey dinner. Then had the balls to trade Nomar and get Cabrera and Roberts. That brought a championship in 04'. But he was following Pearl Jam around South America when Hanley Ramirez was traded for Beckett and Lowell who led us to victory in 07'.
50/50




















Jason Bay

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