*hat tip MLB Trade Rumors, from Ken Rosenthal*
“According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are close to signing Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16MM deal. It’d be a solid move, as the Rays can increase his value by not using him in the field. The ‘08 Rays struggled against lefties (.726 OPS) and Burrell crushes them (.952 OPS in ‘08).”
This is a strong move for the Rays for whom Burrell and his 2.8 win value in 2008 will replace the sub 1.0 Cliff Floyd as the Rays primary DH. As MLB Trade Rumors notes, Burrell’s fielding woes will be mitigated and he’ll help the Rays woeful performance against left handed pitching. Very underrated, but very strong move by the Rays.
The A.L. East keeps getting tougher.
Loading ...
If I was running the Phils and could have signed him for 2y 16 mil, I would have done it in a heart beat
Right on!
except they already got Ibanez to play LF and there’s no DH in the NL
So the Rays’ biggest weaknesses were the back of their rotation, RF, and DH, next year they’ll have David Price instead of Edwin Jackson, Matt Joyce instead of Hinske/Gross, and Burrell instead of Floyd, anyone else starting to see why I’m not super thrilled about next season.
Yup, and they also have a better farm system to deal from to add players as needed.
Great move by the Rays. Everybody is upgrading except us. Our FO is looking like a rabbitt in the headlights right now. I know we have a solid and balanced team, but if we think we can stay competitive in the AL east without doing anything, we are deluding ourselves.
I hope Theo wakes up and sign Adam Dunn. Apparently his price is gonna be reasonable, he is a power bat, and he can be a very good inssurance against injuries (Drew) and the decline of Lowell and in the future he can be the perfect replacement for Papi. So, he is not going to block Aderson in any way. I simply don’t see any downside of this move.
And please, please, give me a quality catcher…
Wait, teams are supposed to improve in the offseason? I thought you were supposed to dick around with major moves and never actually accomplish anything.
3rd place, 89-73, if we’re lucky.
Downside: Glove
I don’t think enough people recognize the importance of defense. The Reason Teixeira made sense was that he could be slotted in and would improve the infield defense. Dunn is significant downgrade no matter what position he plays, there’s no way he could cover right in Fenway and since Bay can’t play right either Dunn would have to play 1st which is not something I want to watch
Raul Ibanez got 3 years at $10 per … Burrell at two years, $8 million per? Amazing move by the Rays, as MLBTR points out, addresses one of their biggest weaknesses
That team could be scary good next year.
Ok, I admit the guy has a horrible glove. But we are gonna still have Lowell as a defensive backup (I’m thinking in putting Dunn in first), and I think we can move him to DH in a relatively short time. And we can have him for much, much less than Tex, so I think he worth it. We can endure his defensive shortcommings for a year or (maximum) two, and then he will replace Papi nicely.
‘Sox nab Nick Green’!?!?!?!
I never thought that Pat Burrell would cause such panic, such hand-wringing, such despair. Yes, he’s a nice addition, but really now. The Sox haven’t pulled a big move so far, but they’ve executed some smart moves to improve the team: the Coco trade for Ramon Ramirez, a live bullpen arm, and the signings of Brad Penny and Josh Bard. And there’s still plenty of time (and a lot of free agents hanging in the wind) before the season starts.
Bear in mind two things. First, over the last five years, the Sox have won two championships and missed the playoffs only once. That’s the best track record in baseball. So I think we can assume that the front office knows what it’s doing, and is unlikely to be frozen in the headlights.
Second, the 2008 Sox came very close to making the World Series. They remain a very good team with few weaknesses and some real strengths. They need some tweaks and additions for ‘09, and the front office is on track to do what needs to be done.
Agree with the overall gist of what you’re saying. My only concern is that the other teams in the division have addressed their weaknesses in a big way, especially Tampa who were better than Boston last year and should be even better next year. I still like the FO and the moves that they’ve made (Thought Penny and Bard were both smart) I’m just worried that we might get left behind with the other strong teams getting much stronger.
I hope our front office is making calls on JJ Hardy…if you consider park factors and the fact the next 3-4 years should be his prime years I think you are talking a strong possibility of .290/.355 30 homeruns and 40 doubles from the short-stop position. Basically having Jason Bay’s production coming from short stop and hitting 7th. That would make my off-season along with the Penny signing and getting Ramon Ramairez.
Tampa overperformed last year, although I think Price and Burrell will be the additions they need to butt heads with the Sox and Yanks again.
The Yankees? The Yankees needed to make big acquisitions to stay competitive with us and the Rays.
I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, that these very same Sox had a lot of bad luck in ‘08 and still managed 95 wins and pushed the ALCS to Game 7. To listen to some of you guys, we’re the Pittsburgh Pirates. C’mon now.
You don’t have to add a top-dollar FA every single year to be competitive: that’s the mistake the Yankees have made, in recent memory, and the harder they’ve tried to improve themselves that way, the worse they’ve gradually become, finally missing the playoffs last year. You especially don’t need to add a top-dollar FA to stay competitive when you were already extremely competitive. Bad luck notwithstanding, the ‘08 Sox were certainly one of the 2 best teams in the AL, and I would say we were the best. Our Pythagoream W/L record was better than LA’s because their offense was mediocre, and let’s not forget that they mostly beat up on a weak division last year. And like I said, Tampa overperformed a little last year, and our Pythagorean record was better than theirs as well.
Give our guys a little credit — and by that I mean our guys both on the field and off. The Joh Henry/Theo Epstein Boston Red Sox don’t mail in any season ever. Which means that if we’re mostly standing pat this offseason, it’s not because we’re waving the white flag, but rather because our FO has a lot of confidence in the team we already have.
Now we know what Theo’s been up to this winter. ha ha ha ha ha ha
This is a great site if you’re a Sox fan and you like satirical humor. No one is spared. So glad Bill’s hiatus is over and he’s got Call of the Green Monster up and running again. Very funny stuff! Enjoy!!! http://callofthegreenmonster.typepad.com/
Why is it expected that the existing Sox team won’t repeat their 2008 performance?
The Sox were, in 2008, arguably the best hitting team in baseball . . . even while the core of their lineup, their best hitters, their big $$ big boppers (Papi, Manny, Mike, JD) missed 1/3 of the season each, and played hurt another 1/3, and Tek, Cash and Lugo had awful years at the plate.
In 2008 Pedroia and Youk also emerged onto the “best hitter list”, along with J. Bay who should repeat something like his 2008 .293, .370 + .527 = .897 with 30 -35HR, while providing a tighter OF. Interestingly, despite injuries, J.D. had the monster year we expected (.927OPS, 19HR in just 109G, many of them playing hurt).
In 2009, if Papi (1.143OPS), Mike (.812) and J.D (.890). are healthy enough to hit near these career averages for 140 – 150 games, and Bay, Pedroia, Youk can maintain anywhere near their 2008 seasons, then the heart of this order is better and deeper than 2008, and deeper than 2007, without Manny, relentless from #2-7. If Ellsbury & Lowrie have good years, as projected, then this lineup is pretty flawless in all aspects of the game. As there is no room for a big bat in the lineup, it is Bench & C, where Theo will improve. Should we have replaced Mike, Lowrie, Ellsbury for more power? Should we have traded Buchholz, Bowden or Masterson for more power? Time will tell, but IMO, no.
There is every reason to think that Mike, Papi, JD, JL, etc. will be healthy. Otherwise, the Sox would now have Teixeira (and traded Mike), Bradley or Giambi (and traded Papi), or Ibanez (and traded JD, eating some contract). They would already be signed and ready to go, no matter the price. Theo is not gambling on these guys. There are no 3b, 1b or RF in Pawtucket to fill these shoes. ST is weeks away. That Theo and Tito are confident in their lineup is based on the best medical advice, not hope.
Because they will be ready to play healthy, they are automatically better than last year, when they were arguably the best in baseball. Build the Bench, and get a couple more arms, Theo!
Nobody is saying we have a bad team. But we need to remember the division in wich we play. To stay competitive in the AL east you need to improve whenever you can. The Yanks and the Rays clearly understand this, and they have been very proactive in upgrading their respective teams. Meanwhile the Red Sox, one team with huge resources in money and prospects, is doing nothing of significance. Why the Red Sox are acting so cheap? Why don’t fill our holes with the best talent available? Why we have to conform with only low-risk, mediocre signings, when we have the means to make big upgrades?
The Rays have a very good team too, and they are not using that argument to sit on their hands. They had a better campain than us, and they are upgrading to be even better.
And you all know I’m not complaining for not signing Teixeira. I never wanted him. But the reason I was against that signing was because I wanted that money invested in other areas of need, and not because I wanted that money saved in the bank. I’m a fan. I want to see my team improve. And I want to see some dollars invested in the club.
We could perform just as well and not make the playoffs, that’s the point, because Tampa and New York have both gotten much better
And, JAREDK, I completely agree with you about JJ Hardy. If the FO asked about Hanley, why don’t ask about Hardy?
“The Sox haven’t pulled a big move so far, but they’ve executed some smart moves to improve the team”
Yes, but right now I give the Rays the division, and the Sox and Yanks in a dead heat for WC.
I imagine they did ask about Hardy. Along with alot of other young SS. However, the Hanley thing somehow got to the media, and thus started a feeding frenzy for us fans. But that doesn’t mean other inquiries weren’t made. I have a hard time believing the FO wouldn’t at least feel out every possible option. Some people on this site seem to think towards the contrary. But IMO just because we don’t hear about every phone call doesn’t mean they aren’t being made.
Thank you for your interest in using my photo of Pat Burrell. However per my profile and the flickr terms of use, you should link to my flickr page or to the original photo page. Thanks.
Considering we haven’t made a single meaningful offseason move for 2 full years, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say the front office doesn’t care.
Sean. That’s a ridiculous thing to say. However, if we sit pat at cacher, bring back the bench, and don’t sign Saito, Smoltz or other good arms to go along with meaningful signings like Penny, RRamirez, Bard, Tazawa, then I may start to agree with you.
I guess I wonder what offseason moves we’ve made over the last 2 years that I’ve missed. Matsuzaka was signed in December of 2006. Since then we’ve signed Sean Casey and Mike Lowell, the latter of which is already a dead contract 1/3rd of the way through.
The Ramon Ramirez deal is nothing until he shows he can do it again. Considering the volatility of relievers, I can’t believe we flipped a starting CF for someone who could be out of baseball by 2010.
I can’t believe the panic on this site.
There are times when the offseason moves just aren’t there to make. The Sox were prepared to hand out $170 million for Teixeira. They weren’t posturing, they were really going to pay that money. They just got beat. And people on this board think the team doesn’t care about making improvements?
If the Sox needed a corner outfielder or a DH, they’d have signed Burrell or Bradley or Dunn by now. They don’t and so they haven’t. Could they use a starter? Sure, but they weren’t going to outbid the Yanks for CC. Burnett is a questionable investment at five years. Could they sign Sheets or D-Lowe? Maybe. Maybe they know something about both players we don’t. But we also know they have two highly-touted mlb-ready young starters sitting in the minors, plus Wakefield, plus Penny, plus a very good emergency fallback plan in Masterson, fitting into two spots right now. Do they really NEED Ben Sheets? I don’t see it.
Just look at the roster. The team is weak in exactly three spots right now: hole at catcher, unproven young shortstop, lack of a long-term answer in the middle of the lineup. There is no free agent catcher out there. No free agent shortstop either, at least none worth signing over Jed Lowrie. That leaves the hole in the order, and they tried to fill that with Teixeira and failed.
When you make moves just to make them and spend money just to spend it, that’s when you get burned. That’s when you end up with Julio Lugo or trade away Kelly Shoppach for Coco Crisp.
The Sox went hard for Teixeira and lost. It’s not like they’re not spending money. In this decade they’ve made all sorts of bold and expensive moves, from Dice-K to Beckett to Drew. But their best moves have involved not giving away players like Lester, Ellsbury and Lowrie and sticking with guys like Pedroia and Youkilis. They have good defense, three outstanding starters at the top of the rotation, good hitting (when Jason Bay is your #7 hitter, you’re doing ok), and a very good bullpen. They’ve won two titles in five years. What is everyone’s problem? This team is one more young player panning out away from being a 96/97-win club. If Buchholz has the year Lester had last year, how good will this team be? If Ellsbury hits .290 and has even a .350 OBP, how good will they be? How about Lowrie, with a healthy wrist, having an .800 OPS?
These things aren’t unrealistic to hope for and if even one of them happens, the team is going to be fine. If Ellsbury gets on base enough, the team is going to score enough to win. If Lowrie hits like he has throughout his career in the minors, the order will be deep enough to for sure. If Buchholz can turn it around, the rotation becomes not just good but outstanding. I think the team knows what it’s doing — and I can’t believe that after winning it twice after all those years of waiting, and getting within a few outs of the Series last year, they don’t get a little more of a break from you people.
That’s all well and good, but we have done nothing for 2 years. Nothing. Last year we did nothing to replace Schilling until the Byrd deal, and this year we have no set 5th starter or great depth outside of the kids.
We have no third baseman to fill the 300 ABs that Lowell will be injured for, and that’s assuming he’s effective, which he won’t be. This team refuses to make any moves to help out the club, big or small.
We got lucky last year, not unlucky. There is no way we belonged in that ALCS.
C’mon Sean. After 95W, they beat the Angels and almost beat the Rays with a field full of subs. Theo tried Colon, Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden and Byrd to replace Schill, who as you know is irreplaceable; and which messed Buchholz up as he simply wasn’t ready yet. Casey did his many jobs well, as did Kotsay and Lowrie. Odds are that Mike will hit better than average this year, which will be enough, and will play better 3b than most.
Penny is the perfect #5 for 2009 and you know it. If he makes it we have a powerful rotation. If he doesn’t, we have bought time for Buchholz and Bowden. Coco had to go, asked to go, needed to go and start. We needed, badly, a replacement for Gagne. Let’s assume RRammo will do a better job than Gagne. Bard will replace Cash and should resume above average hitting and D. Tazawa and Gonzales could be the steals of the season. Theo’s not done yet, and neither are the Sox.
No, don’t even bother talking to Sean. He won’t be happy unless we win the WS every year, and then celebrate by signing the most expensive FA hitter and pitcher every season.
In other words, he’s a Yankees fan.
Wow, are you really that stupid? In the same post where you say I want the Red Sox to win the world series each year, you say I’m a Yankees fan?
Try again, boy.
Hey Sean. Post #29 was mine. Sorry ’bout that. I do have another question for you, as you know I respect your opinion. Who should Theo have signed? You were mostly dead against Teixeira, CC, AJ, Sheets, Kawakami.
I think you and I agree that Penny is a good signing, especially as constructed; that D.Lowe isn’t worth anything near 5/90. You and I disagree on the value of Mike Lowell, Jacoby Ellsbury, I think Jed Lowrie, and the importance of keeping and not blocking Buchholz/Bowden.
I too am frustrated that we don’t have some of my favorites: Street, Fuentes, Saito, Smoltz, Baldelli, Shoppach or Salty signed to appropriate contracts, but am happy with Penney, Bard, RRammi, Tazawa, etc. as solid filling in the blanks.
But I haven’t heard “the offseason answer”, the difference maker from anyone, including you. Or maybe I did, and didn’t agree. If so, please say again. Who should Theo be signing? Get it out there for intelligent discussion. We need SOMETHING to do while waiting, and sniping just doesn’t count. We’re all smarter than that.
No, Sean, you miss my point. I don’t mean you literally ARE a Yankees fan. That’s ridiculous. What I mean is that you have become the equivalent of a Yankees fan — arrogant, blustery, unrealistic in expectations, and one-minded when presented with any problem.
You’ve heard the old adage, when the only tool you have is a hammer, soon every problem starts to look like a nail. It’s the Yankee way to throw money at everything. For one thing, the jury is still out on how effective a strategy it is, even for the Yankees. For another thing, we’re not the Yankees.
The only intelligent way to construct at team in the luxury tax era is with a strong farm system, fertile enough to supply the major league team with needed players while still providing enough depth for necessary trades. This home-grown team should be supplemented by occasional free agent signings, but you can’t rely on those free agent signings to build the core of your team. There aren’t enough truly good players available for that: the poorer teams are locking up their young talent. The guys who become FA’s are largely older, or prone to injury, or are question marks in other ways (physical conditioning for example, or mental makeup). Hell, case in point, Mark Teixeira was the best thing to hit the FA market in a couple of years, and to be honest he’s good, but he’s not THAT good.
Anyway, you continually criticize the FO for not spending enough money, and that bugs me. It’s absurd. We spend more money than anybody but the Yankees, and we are as competitive as anybody including the Yankees. Actually, that’s not true, because we’re more competitive than the Yanks these days. In the new millenium, we’re the best team in baseball. The FO must be doing SOMETHING right.
Yes I know you’re pissed about the price of tickets at Fenway, but it is what it is, so get over it. We keep selling out games, so the ticket prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. In the meantime, it doesn’t solve our problems to burn our money because it’s sitting around, presently unused. The Sox spend plenty. The Sox win plenty. And I for one still say that next season is going to be exciting and competitive: the Sox will be playing in the best division in baseball, hands down, and they will have every opportunity to win the AL East.
I was actually ok with Teix, even though he was overpriced. Fact is, he’s a star player, and I always believe you overpay for star players. Unfortunately, with Lowell, and Drew, and Lugo, and Renteria, we’ve been throwing star money at average-level players, and that is never acceptable. Lowell, in his best year, is just the 5th best 3B in baseball. on his average year he’s indisputably below average, and we’re paying him $13m a year.
I like Drew, and supported the signing, but it’s largely because getting an RF with pop and a decent ability to cover Fenway is a luxury. Lugo always sucked, so I don’t get that at all.
Anyway, Teix yes, Sabathia is a bad bet, Burnett and Sheets are too injury prone, Kawakami is a decent bet but there’s no way I’m going to get excited about an unproven import. I really wanted Fuentes, just like I want/wanted Perez, or Giles, or any of the other below-radar moves other teams have been making. I still want Dunn in left or at first, so either Lowell or Ellsbury aren’t starting.
I don’t need major $$$ signings, I want the front office to do something. So far, we have signed Penny, which was a good move but could pretty much flame out, a backup catcher, and traded a guy who can pull an 8 WARP for a reliever with no track record.
Last season, Theo single-handedly cost us a world series by doing nothing to help the club. He is incapable of thinking about what-if, and seemingly expects no regression or bad luck. This is why Kotsay started constantly in the ALCS. This should not be happening.
2007 was incredible because we had insane depth at every position. This year, to this point, Jeff Bailey is our 4th outfielder AND corner infielder, Lugo’s still below-replacement level on our 40 man, and our depth is somewhat lacking for SPs. I want shock-and-awe in terms of depth. now, we have none, and that’s concerning.
I just want the feeling that the front office is trying to make moves, you know? It’s literally been 2 years since our last real move, as I’ve mentioned. I don’t think they care, until i see otherwise.
I thought you didn’t like WARP, Sean. Guess I was wrong, it’s more complicated than that: you don’t like WARP in Jacoby Ellsbury’s case, but you do like it in Coco Crisp’s?
WARP is very much based upon Davenport Translations. In Ellsbury’s case, the Davenports are not backed up by results from, say, the fielding bible. For Crisp, the fielding bible agrees that he is an exceptional talent in the field.
Plus, I wouldn’t want to trade Ellsbury for some random middle reliever, even though I think he sucks. We shouldn’t have traded Crisp for him either, especially since we have no other options in the outfield.
So again, you use a stat when you like it, but not when you don’t. If you disbelieve Davenport translations so strongly, then you need to throw WARP out the window entirely.
Now I’m genuinely curious about this, so you’ll have to bear with me. Why does it suit you to prefer WARP for Crispy while you beat Ellsbury over the head with VORP? Is VORP unkind to Crisp? What’s the rationale there?
If we were going to have two bad hitters for center field, I’d rather have both of them for depth. For Crisp, other stats say he’s a good defender, while they don’t for Ellsbury. I don’t think WARP is the most important stat in the world, but I randomly mentioned that Crisp had an 8+ WARP. that’s it.
There are two fundamental arguments here: the first is whether we receive proper value in a trade, the second is whether someone is worth being a starting player. I don’t have any faith at all in Ramirez having a sub 4 or 4.5 ERA, because he has virtually no track record, and so giving up ellsbury or coco doesn’t make much sense.
I just can’t believe Ellsbury is our starting CF. We have a player with zero upside to waste the 400 ABs he’s not injured each season. what a waste.
Thanks for the education you two. However, I truly don’t get why statistical formulae, which use past performances as arbiters, can be more valuable than other methods of assessment, both objective and subjective, regarding a rookie (Lowrie, Ellsbury, Lester, Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden, Bailey, Carter, etc.)
I have always used stats in my work, and read the stats of professional literature and reports almost daily. Stats are so often so wrong that I have learned to disregard them when they conflict with obvious realities, or support obvious errors. If important to my work, I will have the discrepancy tracked down, if not it’s not worth pursuing. I have seen statistical evidence that ‘W’ was the best president of the 20th century.
My own eyes tell me that Ellsbury is a brilliant defender, already on a par with the more experienced Coco, who is a brilliant defender. This is generally confirmed by gurus like B.Beane, coaches, etc. (THEIR own eyes.) Factually, we know he committed zero E’s in 3 positions, as a rookie. That is rare. We also know he did so while taking extraordinary risks on balls that most would just let drop. Even more rare. My conclusion has to be that whatever stats you are using in terms of defensive play are wrong; and admit my conclusion could be wrong. I can’t wait to see him settle into CF and begin his legend.
Despite needing work with the bat, he wound up hitting .280, which isn’t terrible for a rookie. Luck? Adjusting to pitchers? New contact lenses? Doesn’t matter, he started and finished strong. James projects a .301BA in 2009. That and a .360OBP would equal 120R and 60-70 SB. IMO, after much struggle to adjust, he started righting the ship in August and should show his true self in 2009. We won’t know for several months, but my bet is for a good year, and he sure isn’t getting overpaid; yet.