Comments on: Rays nab Pat Burrell

By: Gerry

Gerry — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:54:27 +0000

Thanks for the education you two. However, I truly don’t get why statistical formulae, which use past performances as arbiters, can be more valuable than other methods of assessment, both objective and subjective, regarding a rookie (Lowrie, Ellsbury, Lester, Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden, Bailey, Carter, etc.)
I have always used stats in my work, and read the stats of professional literature and reports almost daily. Stats are so often so wrong that I have learned to disregard them when they conflict with obvious realities, or support obvious errors. If important to my work, I will have the discrepancy tracked down, if not it’s not worth pursuing. I have seen statistical evidence that ‘W’ was the best president of the 20th century.
My own eyes tell me that Ellsbury is a brilliant defender, already on a par with the more experienced Coco, who is a brilliant defender. This is generally confirmed by gurus like B.Beane, coaches, etc. (THEIR own eyes.) Factually, we know he committed zero E’s in 3 positions, as a rookie. That is rare. We also know he did so while taking extraordinary risks on balls that most would just let drop. Even more rare. My conclusion has to be that whatever stats you are using in terms of defensive play are wrong; and admit my conclusion could be wrong. I can’t wait to see him settle into CF and begin his legend.
Despite needing work with the bat, he wound up hitting .280, which isn’t terrible for a rookie. Luck? Adjusting to pitchers? New contact lenses? Doesn’t matter, he started and finished strong. James projects a .301BA in 2009. That and a .360OBP would equal 120R and 60-70 SB. IMO, after much struggle to adjust, he started righting the ship in August and should show his true self in 2009. We won’t know for several months, but my bet is for a good year, and he sure isn’t getting overpaid; yet.

By: Sean O

Sean O — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 04:40:00 +0000

If we were going to have two bad hitters for center field, I’d rather have both of them for depth. For Crisp, other stats say he’s a good defender, while they don’t for Ellsbury. I don’t think WARP is the most important stat in the world, but I randomly mentioned that Crisp had an 8+ WARP. that’s it.
There are two fundamental arguments here: the first is whether we receive proper value in a trade, the second is whether someone is worth being a starting player. I don’t have any faith at all in Ramirez having a sub 4 or 4.5 ERA, because he has virtually no track record, and so giving up ellsbury or coco doesn’t make much sense.
I just can’t believe Ellsbury is our starting CF. We have a player with zero upside to waste the 400 ABs he’s not injured each season. what a waste.

By: Sam K

Sam K — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 03:43:34 +0000

So again, you use a stat when you like it, but not when you don’t. If you disbelieve Davenport translations so strongly, then you need to throw WARP out the window entirely.
Now I’m genuinely curious about this, so you’ll have to bear with me. Why does it suit you to prefer WARP for Crispy while you beat Ellsbury over the head with VORP? Is VORP unkind to Crisp? What’s the rationale there?

By: Sean O

Sean O — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:24:25 +0000

WARP is very much based upon Davenport Translations. In Ellsbury’s case, the Davenports are not backed up by results from, say, the fielding bible. For Crisp, the fielding bible agrees that he is an exceptional talent in the field.
Plus, I wouldn’t want to trade Ellsbury for some random middle reliever, even though I think he sucks. We shouldn’t have traded Crisp for him either, especially since we have no other options in the outfield.

By: Sam K

Sam K — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:41:41 +0000

I thought you didn’t like WARP, Sean. Guess I was wrong, it’s more complicated than that: you don’t like WARP in Jacoby Ellsbury’s case, but you do like it in Coco Crisp’s?

By: Sean O

Sean O — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 16:56:52 +0000

I was actually ok with Teix, even though he was overpriced. Fact is, he’s a star player, and I always believe you overpay for star players. Unfortunately, with Lowell, and Drew, and Lugo, and Renteria, we’ve been throwing star money at average-level players, and that is never acceptable. Lowell, in his best year, is just the 5th best 3B in baseball. on his average year he’s indisputably below average, and we’re paying him $13m a year.
I like Drew, and supported the signing, but it’s largely because getting an RF with pop and a decent ability to cover Fenway is a luxury. Lugo always sucked, so I don’t get that at all.
Anyway, Teix yes, Sabathia is a bad bet, Burnett and Sheets are too injury prone, Kawakami is a decent bet but there’s no way I’m going to get excited about an unproven import. I really wanted Fuentes, just like I want/wanted Perez, or Giles, or any of the other below-radar moves other teams have been making. I still want Dunn in left or at first, so either Lowell or Ellsbury aren’t starting.
I don’t need major $$$ signings, I want the front office to do something. So far, we have signed Penny, which was a good move but could pretty much flame out, a backup catcher, and traded a guy who can pull an 8 WARP for a reliever with no track record.
Last season, Theo single-handedly cost us a world series by doing nothing to help the club. He is incapable of thinking about what-if, and seemingly expects no regression or bad luck. This is why Kotsay started constantly in the ALCS. This should not be happening.
2007 was incredible because we had insane depth at every position. This year, to this point, Jeff Bailey is our 4th outfielder AND corner infielder, Lugo’s still below-replacement level on our 40 man, and our depth is somewhat lacking for SPs. I want shock-and-awe in terms of depth. now, we have none, and that’s concerning.
I just want the feeling that the front office is trying to make moves, you know? It’s literally been 2 years since our last real move, as I’ve mentioned. I don’t think they care, until i see otherwise.

By: Sam K

Sam K — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:36:07 +0000

No, Sean, you miss my point. I don’t mean you literally ARE a Yankees fan. That’s ridiculous. What I mean is that you have become the equivalent of a Yankees fan — arrogant, blustery, unrealistic in expectations, and one-minded when presented with any problem.
You’ve heard the old adage, when the only tool you have is a hammer, soon every problem starts to look like a nail. It’s the Yankee way to throw money at everything. For one thing, the jury is still out on how effective a strategy it is, even for the Yankees. For another thing, we’re not the Yankees.
The only intelligent way to construct at team in the luxury tax era is with a strong farm system, fertile enough to supply the major league team with needed players while still providing enough depth for necessary trades. This home-grown team should be supplemented by occasional free agent signings, but you can’t rely on those free agent signings to build the core of your team. There aren’t enough truly good players available for that: the poorer teams are locking up their young talent. The guys who become FA’s are largely older, or prone to injury, or are question marks in other ways (physical conditioning for example, or mental makeup). Hell, case in point, Mark Teixeira was the best thing to hit the FA market in a couple of years, and to be honest he’s good, but he’s not THAT good.
Anyway, you continually criticize the FO for not spending enough money, and that bugs me. It’s absurd. We spend more money than anybody but the Yankees, and we are as competitive as anybody including the Yankees. Actually, that’s not true, because we’re more competitive than the Yanks these days. In the new millenium, we’re the best team in baseball. The FO must be doing SOMETHING right.
Yes I know you’re pissed about the price of tickets at Fenway, but it is what it is, so get over it. We keep selling out games, so the ticket prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. In the meantime, it doesn’t solve our problems to burn our money because it’s sitting around, presently unused. The Sox spend plenty. The Sox win plenty. And I for one still say that next season is going to be exciting and competitive: the Sox will be playing in the best division in baseball, hands down, and they will have every opportunity to win the AL East.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 05:20:16 +0000

Hey Sean. Post #29 was mine. Sorry ’bout that. I do have another question for you, as you know I respect your opinion. Who should Theo have signed? You were mostly dead against Teixeira, CC, AJ, Sheets, Kawakami.
I think you and I agree that Penny is a good signing, especially as constructed; that D.Lowe isn’t worth anything near 5/90. You and I disagree on the value of Mike Lowell, Jacoby Ellsbury, I think Jed Lowrie, and the importance of keeping and not blocking Buchholz/Bowden.
I too am frustrated that we don’t have some of my favorites: Street, Fuentes, Saito, Smoltz, Baldelli, Shoppach or Salty signed to appropriate contracts, but am happy with Penney, Bard, RRammi, Tazawa, etc. as solid filling in the blanks.
But I haven’t heard “the offseason answer”, the difference maker from anyone, including you. Or maybe I did, and didn’t agree. If so, please say again. Who should Theo be signing? Get it out there for intelligent discussion. We need SOMETHING to do while waiting, and sniping just doesn’t count. We’re all smarter than that.

By: Sean O

Sean O — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 00:50:36 +0000

Wow, are you really that stupid? In the same post where you say I want the Red Sox to win the world series each year, you say I’m a Yankees fan?
Try again, boy.

By: Sam K

Sam K — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:44:20 +0000

No, don’t even bother talking to Sean. He won’t be happy unless we win the WS every year, and then celebrate by signing the most expensive FA hitter and pitcher every season.
In other words, he’s a Yankees fan.