In Kevin Youkilis’ recent Q&A with MVN’s The Bottom Line, I found one particular answer particularly interesting.
For someone who has been given the moniker “the Greek God of Walks” and seemingly backed it up with a superior batting eye and tremendous patience at the plate, Kevin Youkilis accounted some of his success in 2008, specifically in the power department to being more aggressive at the plate.
This past season was full of career bests for you: .312 BA, 29 HR, 115 RBI… but your numbers have typically faded in the second half. Did you do something different in the pre-season or during the season this year to make sure you didn’t “burn out.”I didn’t do anything different, but just didn’t have any of the little, nagging injuries that I’d had to play through in the past. I work hard every off-season to be in the best possible shape, and just was able to carry it through the season a little better last year. Plus, I was a little more aggressive in certain counts and game situations, and that helped my power and productivity numbers.
But let’s not just take Youk’s word for it. As we are wont to do, let’s dig a little deeper and see if the statistics back up his self assessment.
Youkilis has long been one of the most selective hitters in baseball, consistently in the top ten pitches per plate appearance year after year with a career average of 4.30 P/PA. There is no doubt that Youkilis is patient. At the same time, he’s also of very keen eye only swinging at 17.7% of pitches out of the strike zone over his career.
With a selective eye and unwavering patience, Youkilis was living up to his now famous moniker, walking 91 times in 2006, good for seventh in the American League. At the same time however, it was apparent that Youk’s approach at the plate considered a walk to be as good an outcome as a hit. This was what he built his reputation around right?
In a 2005 interview with Ben Jacobs at The Hardball Times Youkilis would put walking in this context;
Getting walks is something that is challenging the pitcher, or just being smart and selective at the plate. I think that’s one of the attributes of walking, is going up there and being able to hit certain pitches.
You get to be a good hitter before you get a lot of walks, that’s the way I see it. You take a lot of pitches. You can be smart and selective at the plate, and that helps attribute to walks.
One thing that Youkilis wasn’t known as out of the gate was a “power hitter”. In “Moneyball” he would be first described as “a fat third baseman who couldn’t run, throw, or field.” My, how first impressions can be misleading.
Could Youkilis’ 29 home runs and .569 SLG, good for third in the American League, really be a result of wielding his batting eye and ability to make contact more aggressively?
The stats do in fact bear out that Youkilis was more aggressive at the plate as measured purely by percentage of swings at pitches both in and out of the strike zone. Compared with 39.5% in 2007 and only 36.7% of pitches swung at in 2006, Youkilis took a rip at 42.4% of the pitches thrown his way in 2008.
Another way to look at this is that his pitches per plate appearance fell to 4.02 and out of the top 30 in baseball in that category. Did his eye get worse? No, he got more aggressive. But aggressive plate behavior in and of itself isn’t necessarily positive. Its when you take those swings and what you do with them that matters.
The most important thing was that Youkilis did this while increasing his contact rate across the board, 82.7% of his 2007 swings resulted in contact compared with 83.7% in 2008. He was swinging more, but he was in control using his gifted batting eye to swing at pitches that he could drive.
So was 2008 a fluke or will Kevin Youkilis’ adaptations at the plate bear more fruit in 2009? That is a question for another day. Starting next week, I’ll be bringing back my “For Better or Worse” column as we dig into each player’s 2008 and ask one simple question. Will he be better or worse in 2009?
From that simple yes or no, we can aggregate a point of view across the entire roster of either (a) unbridled optimism for the upcoming season (Sean O. I’ll name you the captain of this camp) or (b) desperate pessimism (Gerry. This one’s all you).
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Another great piece. Hard to take the negative camp with Youk. lol. On the other hand Youk is, I think, the most complex hitter on the team. He could get better in certain areas and worse in others and still improve overall.
He has sacrificed some “plate patience” without sacrificing “plate discipline”, dropping his god-like BB #’s to 77 in ‘07 and to 62 in ‘08, replacing those 15BB with 16H and just 3 more K’s, from 105 to 108, despite aggressiveness, in 12 more ABs in 145G each year. At the same time, his TB increased a whopping 239 to 306. His OBP remained identical at.390 while his SLG soared from .453 to .589. Who else could have done any of this? In 2009, could he continue to evolve, with his HR total reaching 35 while BB increase and K decrease? Who knows? Youk is unique.
If his power #’s continue to rise, will he ever again be the Greek god of walks?? Pedroia’s BB/K ratio reversed from 47/42 with 8HR to 50/52 with 17HR last year. In 2007, when Papi’s consistency increased at the expense of HR, (35HR is still pretty good) his career 651BB/899K was reversed to 111/103. During a difficult 2008, he maintained this change with 70/74 in 133 fewer AB’s, while playing hurt. Will Youk’s ratio change?
Many thanks for reminding us about MoneyBall’s lowball references to this fat 3b/1b GG All-Star MVP-candidate, underpaid 29 year old who can’t run, throw or field. I’m already casting my vote that he will continue to improve, somehow, in some areas, but I have no idea how.
Slow day on the comments, huh? I’m surprised, given this really interesting article.
I have a couple more bits on Youkilis coming out tomorrow (no worries, Tim, you didn’t steal my thunder!) but suffice it to say that based on this article and my research, Youkilis has evolved into a smart hitter who is capable of driving the ball out of the infield. I said it three years ago first, I’ll say it again: He’s another Edgar Martinez.
I think the simple answer here is Youk just ain’t that sexy (a topic). lol – I amuse myself at least ;)
Anecdotally, I can recall several instances of first-pitch swinging by Youkilis last year, while he generally retained his patient approach.
Pitch selectivity and strike zone command are crucial, but I can see the value in occasional aggressiveness. If the pitcher knows you’re not going to swing early in the count, he could put you in a quick 0-2 or 1-2 hole by simply throwing strikes. Swing at an early pitch once in a while, and he can’t risk throwing first-pitch meatballs.
I have to think that Youk was aggressive at certain tactical moments: when facing a pitcher with good control, or when he thinks he’s sussed out a pitching pattern. On the other hand, maybe he’s doing more first-pitch guessing: if he guesses right, he mashes the ball. If he guesses wrong, he’s down 0-1 and his plate discipline can help him regain the advantage.
I’m sure Youk will never tell anyone his tactics, because then the opposing pitchers would adjust.
As for his 2009 outlook… statistically speaking, he’s virtually certain to take a step back (while remaining a valuable player). On the other hand, Youk has beaten expectations throughout his career, so the statistical comparisons may not hold up.
Besides, whenever he gets off track, he just gets himself a Slumpbuster.
It’s a slow topic for comments because there’s nothing to complain about. I hate to say it, but Red Sox fans love to whine. Youkilis gives them nothing to whine about after the season he had last year. The beard needs to go, but that’s the only negative I can think of.
I disagree Sam. No beard, no power.
It is what it is. Youk’s a stud.
But why has he improved so markedly? 1. He’s completely transformed his body by being one of the hardest working players in the sport and 2. the already advanced plate approach he demonstrated as a youngster has gotten only better with more experience.
He always had truly top notch hand-eye coordination, but now hes stronger, faster and more durable, and he’s become one of the smartest hitters in the game.
He’s of the best players in baseball and the Red Sox are lucky to have him. Let’s hope they can lock him up longterm.
Youk’s stat line in 2009: .308 BA, .390 OBP, 25 HR, 120 RBI, 95 runs…roughly the same as last year with a slight bump in RBI since he will likely hit 4th much of the season.
Agree with Dante. Just can’t see the rationale for regression. His numbers, his career, show constant improvement and evolution, sometimes incremental, sometimes dramatic when he seems to figure something out, like his power stroke.
Why, if he has learned to optimize his options at the plate, as JV described, would he truly regress unless he tried out something new and it didn’t work. He would soon recover with tried and true technique. Any player could have a bad year. But IMO Ells, Lowrie, Bailey and Bay need to establish their careers at Fenway; Mike, Papi and perhaps Tek need to re-establish themselves as hitters; Pedroia and JD need to consolidate their gains. Youk has been on an upward trend for several years, and seems the most likely to continue improving for a while, perhaps not so dramatically, but in many areas. He is aiming for his high side, which he hasn’t reached and, at 30, needs to get there.
The rationale for regression is based on statistical comparisons to similar players. Usually, guys who don’t establish themselves in the majors until their late 20s (Youk was 27 in his first full season) go on to have relatively short careers.
It’s also pretty common for a player to have a single outstanding year, and then fall back within his normal range of performance. Purely by the numbers, Youk should be expected to post something closer to career norms in 2009: say, .280/380/470. And (again, purely by the numbers) he’d be projected to play maybe 5-7 years as a regular and then become a reasonably productive part-timer.
However… as I said earlier, Youk has defied the numbers over and over again, consistently outperforming expectations. Given his track record and his dedication to the job, he’s very likely to continue exceeding expectations.
I realize that formulas like PECOTA are revolutionary but there are are problems with adhering blindly to statistical comparisons all the time
“The rationale for regression is based on statistical comparisons to similar players. Usually, guys who don’t establish themselves in the majors until their late 20s (Youk was 27 in his first full season) go on to have relatively short careers.”
this doesnt take into account that Youkilis got a late start in his career bc of the stacked teams he played on in 2003 and 2004
he was probably good enough to play earlier than he did, if he had been in cincy or pittsburgh or texas. But it wouldve been hard for anyone to break into the 2003,2004 Sox lineup
stats are great. very useful. but by no means should they be used alone with context of a situation.
Youks da mang
but by no means should they be used alone without context of a situation…i meant
Like Dante and Jv said. Youk could be the exception to the . . . .